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Russia/Ukraine
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Putin's upcoming visit with Xi Jinping signal a continuing “no limits” partnership between China and Russia?
The relationship is certainly becoming more strategic over time. Not so much because the Russians are changing their behavior. They have very few options at this point. North Korea and Iran are their top allies. Belarus, Syria. I mean, it's a rogues’ gallery, but China is increasingly finding that their ability to work long term in a stable and sustainable way with America's allies in Asia, with the Europeans, and with the United States itself becoming more constrained. And given all of that, willingness to be a closer ally with Russia is increasing over time. Just look at Biden putting 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports. All of this is sending a message to the Chinese that no matter who's elected in November, that the US is trying to contain them. And yeah, I think longer term, the more they see that from the US and their allies, the closer with the Russians they will eventually be.
Why is Europe alarmed with Georgia's “foreign agents” law?
Well, here it's because this is a law. that is, in principle. nothing wrong with it. In principle, just talking about publishing those NGOs, those organizations that get at least 20% funding from external sources. In reality, it's being put in place by a bunch of political leaders that are aligned with Russia. It is almost identical to Russia's own foreign agents law, and it has been used in Russia to chilling effect, to shut down anything that feels like pro-Western democratic opposition in government institutions that in Russia are authoritarian and Georgia are leaning more authoritarian. Keep in mind, this is a Georgia that has constitutionally enshrined that they want to join the European Union and NATO. But the reality is that political officials are moving farther away from that. Big, big demonstrations and potential for violence on the ground in Georgia going forward.
How will Biden respond if Israel continues to push into Rafah?
Well, he said it's a red line, but ultimately it's going to feel like as much of a red line, I suspect, as Obama was on Syria. Yes, they will reduce some level of offensive weaponry that can be used by Israel, in Rafah. But the reality is they're going to keep providing intelligence, keep providing the vast majority of the defense spending that Israel gets from the United States and the weaponry. And there are a lot of members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, that are really upset about the idea of suspending any support to Israel and are moving to try to block Biden legislation, which means he has to find a compromise with them in an election year. All of this puts him firmly in no man's land on the Israel-Palestine issue, not where Biden wants to be.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- The limits of a China-Russia partnership ›
- Tbilisi clashes: Georgia government pushes "Russian" bill risking EU candidacy ›
- Russia invaded Georgia too, and it never left ›
- Biden threatens to cut off some weapons to Israel if Rafah invaded ›
- Putin needs Xi to win the war in Ukraine ›
- All eyes on Russia ahead of Putin-Xi meeting ›
FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping walk during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023.
The message is clear: Russia and China stand together, and recent pressure on Beijing to rethink the partnership hasn’t worked. Not that anyone believed US and EU requests to limit the export of goods Russia might use in Ukraine went anywhere but the circular file.
Peek under the hood of the Putin-Xi partnership, however, and you’ll see the gears could use some grease. For instance, Putin would like Xi to commit to the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would help him deal with Western sanctions. Xi has historically been less enthusiastic about the project (he’s already getting Russian gas at a steep discount, after all).
There’s also North Korea, which has grown considerably closer to Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine. China isn’t thrilled to see Russia butting in on what it considers its sphere of influence but has taken a soft approach thus far. In January, Putin accepted an invitation from Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un to visit, and we’re watching for a stop in Pyongyang, which would likely tweak Xi. Even if it doesn’t happen this time around, Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan says “it's highly likely that Putin will visit North Korea by the end of 2024.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Chief of the Russian Land Forces Oleg Salyukov attend a military parade on Victory Day, in Moscow, on May 9, 2024.
One way to look at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to replace long-serving Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with career economist Andrey Belousov is this: Since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s nerds have performed better than his jocks.
The jocks: Right from the start, Russia’s generals and spies – poorly prepared, badly informed, and deeply corrupt – screwed up what was meant to be a short victorious war. Two years later, the locker room bully clique continues to grind, slowly and destructively, across Ukraine, but that’s largely because Russia’s manpower is virtually unlimited while the West’s support for Ukraine is not. Despite Secretary of State Antony Blinken’ssurprise visit to Kyiv today to tell President Volodymyr Zelensky military aid is "now on its way,” there's no doubt the recent slowdown in US support, thanks to months of congressional infighting, has exacerbated Ukraine’s challenges on the battlefield.
The nerds: The stars of math class, meanwhile – led by Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov – have done the seemingly impossible: They kept the Russian economy afloat despite crippling Western financial sanctions. They held the line as the “War Machine” became central to the economy.
Now Putin, settling in for a forever war against the West, wants to ensure it’s economically sustainable. His spokesman even warned of the danger of a “1980s” situation, when overspending on the quagmire in Afghanistan and the arms race with Washington helped to bring down the USSR.
To avoid a similar fate, Putin is now banking on a little nerd power at the barracks.
A man casts his vote during a presidential election in Vilnius, Lithuania May 12, 2024.
On Sunday, Lithuania held both a presidential election and a referendum on dual citizenship, an issue that has divided the Baltic nation of 2.8 million people since its independence from the Soviet Union 34 years ago.
President Gitanas Nauseda took the most votes against seven other contenders, but did not win an outright majority and will face Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte in a runoff election scheduled for May 26. While the candidates broadly agree on defense, they diverge on other issues, including Lithuania’s relations with China and same-sex unions. The referendum on dual citizenship, however, failed to pass.
The presidential race – and the referendum – took on heightened significance since over half of Lithuanians fear a Russian attack if Moscow wins its war against Ukraine. Lithuania banned most forms of dual citizenship after the country declared independence from the former Soviet Union in 1990. While the Russian-speaking population in Lithuania is relatively small, few Lithuanians support granting Russian citizens dual nationality.
However, without changes to the law, brain drain is likely to keep sapping away at Lithuania's population, which has fallen from 3.5 million to 2.8 million since independence. Roughly 1,000 Lithuanians currently renounce their nationality each year, and substantial diasporas have formed in Canada, Brazil, Russia, and the United States, which alone is home to 600,000 former Lithuanian citizens.
FILE PHOTO: Participants, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, attend a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 79th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in Red Square in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2024.
Shoigu will transition to become secretary of Russia's national security council, replacing Nikolai Patrushev. Andrei Belousov, currently deputy prime minister with a background in economics but no military experience, has been proposed as the new defense minister.
Rather than firing Shoigu, Putin has offered his longtime ally a soft landing, says Eurasia Group analyst Alex Brideau. Brideau says the move is “a reflection that Putin thought he needed a change at defense.” But rather than an outright snub, it’s also an example, he says, of how rarely Putin outright fires those who have demonstrated long-term loyalty.
According to Kremlin press spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the appointment of Belousov emphasizes the need for “innovation” in the role. Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence colonel and NATO planner, believes that the shuffle allows Putin “to keep Shoigu on side,” while bringing in a civilian better able to deal withthe impact of corruption in the Defence Ministry. Others have described the shift as a sign that Putin wants to put the war in Ukraine on an “economically sustainable footing” – something an economist like Belousov might be better positioned to do.Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko (L) speaks with U.S. servicemen delivered counter-battery radars for Ukrainian army in Lviv, Ukraine, November 14, 2015.
Remember when the EU froze billions of euros worth of Russian assets following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine? Well, if the EU gets its way, interest earned from those assets will soon be headed to Ukraine for much-needed arms replenishment and reconstruction.
The bloc’s 27 ambassadors agreed in principle to a deal directly targeting the Euroclear depositary in Belgium, which holds much of the €210 billion ($226b) worth of frozen assets. The interest from those assets alone is worth up to €3 billion ($3.22b) a year.
Debates between Western countries on how to use frozen Russian assets to benefit Ukraine have raged since the war began, with some going so far as to call for the full confiscation of all Russian assets. Lack of consensus over the legality of asset confiscation stalled those talks, especially due to the effect it could have on the Euro if the move spooked away investors. Moscow also threatened to confiscate an estimated $288 billion of Western assets in retaliation.
The EU’s new compromise is likely to be supported by G7 allies, and it directly mirrors a proposal outlined by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. EU Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen praised the plan, posting on X, “There could be no stronger symbol and no greater use for that money than to make Ukraine and all of Europe a safer place to live.”
The decision still needs approval from a gathering of EU finance ministers next week, and the first billion euros could reach Ukraine by summer.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Israel beginning its invasion of Rafah, is the recent Hamas agreed to cease-fire dead?
No. Though, of course, it was never really alive. Wasn't alive because the Israelis didn't agree to the terms that the Palestinians and Hamas did. But they are still negotiating and Israel's initial foray across the border to take over the crossing in Gaza is not, considered a redline, by the Americans, though it is disrupting humanitarian aid, and it's certainly not a full fledged invasion. So, I mean, again, escalation, lots of warnings, expectation that invasion is going to ensue quickly. But still a possibility that you get a short term cease-fire, a short term cease-fire. We'll see.
Will widespread flooding in Brazil lead to a larger crisis in the region?
Not in the near term. It is going to put some fiscal pressure on Brazil. You know, about 100 looks like dead and missing, and horrible floods, very costly. A result of an El Nino this year which we're seeing in a lot of places. And Brazil is going to have to continue to spend on this. And a lot of countries are and those costs, of course, a lot easier for the developed countries to manage than developing. And loss and damages from natural disasters is not a well funded effort by the wealthy on the planet at this point.
Will a Russian invasion of Ukraine endure as long as Putin, who begins his fifth term as president, remains in office?
While it's been going on since 2014. And so we're in our second decade of Russian invasion of Ukraine. I don't think the fighting has to continue as long as Putin is in office. I am hopeful that at some point, a negotiation can end this conflict. But it's not going to lead to peace between Russia and Ukraine as long as Putin is in office. It's not going to lead to a reestablishment of diplomatic ties between Russia and NATO countries as long as Putin is in office. And, it also isn't going to lead, to the Ukrainians taking all their land back as long as Putin is in office. So those are the problems. And, that's going to be with us for a while.
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