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Russia/Ukraine
A banner announces the construction of a photovoltaic solar farm in Cabaiguan, Cuba, on May 21, 2025.
55: China is financing 55 new solar power projects in Cuba this year, the latest sign of how it is overtaking Russia as the crisis-wracked island’s main benefactor. Some of Moscow’s recent projects in the communist country have stalled: a Russian firm pledged two years ago to revitalize a sugar mill that once employed 2,000 people, but it still sits idle.
3%: In a win for US President Donald Trump, Canada walked back on its 3% Digital Services Tax that prompted the United States to suspend trade talks on Friday. The tax, which disproportionately affected American technology firms, was set to take effect on Monday.
71: Israel’s strike last Tuesday allegedly killed 71 people at a notorious detention facility in Tehran, per Iranian State Media. The prison houses thousands of political prisoners, including opposition politicians, journalists, and activists.
4,000: More than a third of Tuvalu’s population – around 4,000 residents – have applied for a landmark ‘climate visa,’ which grants Australian residency to migrants from Pacific Island nations battling rising sea levels. NASA scientists expect that the country’s main island, home to 60% of the population, will be fully submerged by 2050.
$80,000: US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem reportedly re-routed $80,000 in political donations to a newly established personal company during her time as South Dakota’s governor in 2023. Noem’s lawyer said she “fully complied with the letter and the spirit of the law.”
On Ian Bremmer’s World in 180 Seconds: Ian unpacks US strikes on Iran, Russia’s stance on the conflict, and the future of the United Nations at 80.
Are US strikes on Iran exposing cracks in NATO? Not according to Ian Bremmer. In this week's World in :60, Ian says, “On Iran, NATO allies are pretty aligned. They consider Iran an implacable enemy... and don't support regime change.” Even with divergent views on Israel, NATO countries are backing US actions to counter Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
On Russia’s role? It’s complicated. While Russia could help Iran, Ian emphasizes that “what they don’t have is the willingness.” The Iran-Russia relationship remains transactional, "not strategic," and Moscow’s threats over recent strikes are “all bluster.”
Finally, as the UN marks its 80th anniversary, Ian reflects on its evolving role: “Having a forum where all countries… share information and understand each other better is becoming more important, not less.” It’s not global government, but it is a critical global resource.
What We’re Watching: Iran meets with Putin, NATO gathers at the Hague, Venezuela targets black markets
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on June 23, 2025.
US bombing of Iran creates Russian conundrum
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Iran’s foreign minister on Monday, offering rhetorical support for Tehran – but it’s unclear what more the Kremlin is willing to do for its last major Middle Eastern ally right now. Putin has cultivated good ties with Iran, but also with Israel. At the same time, with Washington focused on Iran, Russia continued to hammer Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. Just days ago, Putin openly declared that the “whole of Ukraine is ours” – does he think the end goal is in sight?
NATO allies meet for an uncomfortable summit
Defense expenditure will be the top agenda item when leaders of 32 countries – all from Europe and North America – gather at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit tomorrow in the Hague, Netherlands. Ahead of the gathering, the group agreed to increase its defense-spending target from 2% to 5% of GDP, but granted an exception to Spain due to the prime minister’s political problems at home. Questions about the strength of the alliance are swirling: US President Donald Trump has sparred with his NATO allies for years now, and there’s no sign that the tensions will subside – his decision to bomb Iran undercut European efforts to foster a truce in the Middle East.
Venezuela cracks down on black markets – could it backfire?
The Venezuelan government has arrested dozens of people, including former top officials, in a crackdown on the country’s sprawling black market for dollars. Authorities blame off-the-books dollar traders for destabilizing the exchange rate, but experts say that the government’s economic mismanagement, coupled with US sanctions, means that black markets are the only way to satisfy popular demand for greenbacks. Stamping out those channels could, they warn, make things worse. Venezuela’s inflation rate has already surged past 200% this year.
What’s next for Iran’s regime? Ian Bremmer says, “It’s much more likely that the supreme leader ends up out, but the military… continues to run the country.” Despite global speculation, real change will depend on the Iranian people, not foreign intervention, says Ian.
As attention shifts to the Middle East, Ukraine faces intensified Russian strikes with less international spotlight. Still, Ian notes NATO support remains “pretty solid,” and the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague will be a key signal of that.
And as China pushes for a multipolar currency system, Ian is skeptical: “It’s not premature to talk about multipolarity economically—it is in terms of a currency order.”
What We’re Watching: Disappointing day for Zelensky, Tensions flare on Thailand’s border, Armenia and Turkey turn a new leaf
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pictured at the Group of Seven summit venue in Kananaskis, Canada, on June 17, 2025.
Bad day for Zelensky
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky left the G7 without getting a meeting with US President Donald Trump. To add insult to injury, the Trump administration has suspended a working group meant to pressure Russia into speeding up peace talks with Ukraine. This all comes as the US is planning to send Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg to meet with Russian-aligned Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko – the highest ranking US official to meet with the authoritarian leader since 2020.
Border tensions flare between Thailand and Cambodia
Thousands of protestors gathered in Cambodia’s capital of Phnom Penh on Wednesday to show support for the government’s decision to deploy the armed forces to the country’s border with Thailand. Tensions between the two countries have escalated in recent weeks following a brief military clash in their disputed border zone late last month, which left one Cambodian soldier dead. This comes as Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s ruling coalition appears on the verge of collapse over perceptions that she has been too diplomatic in her approach to Cambodia.
Armenia’s PM to make rare visit to Turkey
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyanwill meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Friday, in a bid to repair one of the world’s most antagonistic relationships. The bad blood originates from World War One, when the Ottoman empire killed masses of Armenians. More recently, it has revolved around Armenia’s post-Soviet wars with Azerbaijan, a Turkish ally. Russian-aligned Armenia – a tiny, isolated nation – lost the last round of conflict with Azerbaijan in 2023, and sees rapprochement with Turkey as a way to broaden its ties to the West.A satellite image shows the Natanz nuclear facility after an airstrike in Iran, on June 14, 2025.
The Israel-Iran conflict continues to rage on: US President Donald Trump called for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” on Tuesday, while Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out surrendering Wednesday morning. Iran is also considering bombing US bases.
Much of the world’s focus is, understandably, on what the United States will do next (for more, see here) – but there are other major powers with a big stake in this conflict too. Here’s a roundup of their views on the rapidly escalating conflict.
Russia on the fence. Moscow, long friendly with Tehran, has drawn even closer to the Islamic Republic since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, in large part thanks to Iran’s supply of drones. The two sides even signed a security agreement earlier this year. Yet with Iran now facing a bombardment, the Kremlin has offered little to Tehran other than verbal condemnation of Israel. That’s because… it’s complicated.
Iran’s downfall – coming after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime last December – would mean the loss of another major Russian ally in the region. The Kremlin, though, has also long-sought to keep Tehran from going nuclear, and has been reluctant to furnish the Islamic Republic with certain weapons – in part because the Kremlin also maintains good relations with Israel. Putin must tread carefully here, but he is certainly on his back foot.
Risks for Beijing. China has publicly denounced Israel, but a more immediate concern is Iran’s oil supplies. Beijing now sources 16% of its seaborn crude oil imports from the Islamic Republic, and gets it at a discounted price. Smaller Chinese refineries have become reliant on Iranian oil, switching to this energy source in 2022 to protect their margins. If those supplies are cut – either by Israel or by Iran shutting the critical Strait of Hormuz in order to pressure the world into stopping Israel – it would be another hit to China’s already-vulnerable economy.
“China is quietly nervous, but doesn’t want to interfere,” says Eurasia Group’s Director of Analysis Marc Gustafson. “China gets a lot of oil from Iran and is worried Israel will strike the oil facilities. It also knows that Iran is a pariah state for most of the West, so it won’t be very vocal in defending the country.”
Europe backs Israel, but with some caveats On the surface, Europe is wholeheartedly backing Israel. The G7 – which includes four of the strongest and largest European countries – issued a joint statement at their summit this week that condemned Iran.
Still there are some differences of opinion. While Germany has praised Israel for doing the West’s “dirty work” and the UK signaled possible military support for the Israeli Defense Forces, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that regime change in Iran would cause “chaos.” His position has angered Trump.
Conflicted views in the Arab world. In public, countries in the Gulf and the Levant are criticizing Israel’s attacks on Iran. Privately, there may be more satisfaction than they let on. For nearly half a century, many Sunni Arabs have viewed Revolutionary Iran as a meddlesome and disruptive foreign power, fomenting proxy conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and beyond.
Then there’s Syria, where the current government overthrew al-Assad’s brutal, Iran-allied dictatorship just six months ago. It’s no surprise that Damascus’s new leaders, resentful of Iran but also delicately smoothing ties with a belligerent Israel, have gone radio silent.
The one notable exception is Qatar. The oil-rich peninsula maintains cordial relations with Iran, and even shares a gas field with them – Israel bombed it on Saturday.
But if there is any schadenfreude among Arab nations, there is also wariness of the conflict exploding into a wider regional war that draws them in. As the Persian proverb goes: “Those who laugh on Friday will cry on Sunday.”