GZD 10/17/24

What We’re Watching: Israel defies US (again), What Zelensky’s victory plan reveals, Myanmar junta seeks talks (excluding some players), South Africa’s Unity government shows promise

US keeps trying to change Israel’s behavior, with few results

The Israeli military on Wednesday conducted airstrikes in Beirut, despite calls from the US for Israel to reduce the scale of its attacks on Hezbollah in the Lebanese capital.

This is part of a broader trend over the past year amid Israel’s fighting against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US has repeatedly urged Israel to tone things down and show greater care for civilians, but the Jewish state has frequently gone in the opposite direction and effectively ignored its top ally’s concerns.

From the IDF’s offensive in Rafah to its more recent invasion in Lebanon, there have been myriad examples of Israel taking escalatory steps that Washington has vocally opposed. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has continued to affirm its “ironclad” support and supply Israel with arms, reflecting no major changes in US policy.

Earlier this week, the Pentagon announced the US was sending an advanced missile defense system to Israel and deploying 100 US troops to operate it.

What will it take? The US on Tuesday warned Israel that military aid could be impacted if it does not take steps to improve the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza within 30 days. Israel says it intends to address Washington’s concerns and is taking them “seriously.” But this isn’t the first time that the US has issued such warnings over the past year, and Israel’s tactics have largely remained unchanged.

We’ll be watching to see if Israel shifts gears and, if not, whether the US makes good on its threat.

Zelensky lays out his “victory plan” at home and in Europe

On Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his much-discussed “victory plan” to Ukraine’s parliament. On Thursday, he’ll discuss it at a European summit. This “peace through strength” plan has five central elements:

• Ukraine is invited to join NATO.
• Allies help strengthen Ukraine’s military, give it permission to use the long-range weapons they provide against targets inside Russia, and allow Ukrainian forces to continue their occupation of parts of Russian territory until Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiate.
• Ukraine and its allies use a non-nuclear strategic deterrent package to contain Russian aggression.
• The US and EU agree to protect Ukraine’s critical natural resources.
• After the war ends, Ukrainian troops replace some US troops stationed across Europe.

Zelensky said there are also secret parts of the plan to be shared only with key allies.

For now, much of this roadmap remains unrealistic. Most NATO leaders remain cautious about any action that might persuade Putin to expand the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders.

By articulating what Zelensky believes it would take for Ukraine to earn “victory” – the complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian land – he’s again warning his country’s allies that Russia must be forced to the bargaining table.

By insisting this plan could lead to victory “by next year,” he hopes to increase Ukrainian public confidence that its forces can still win.

But Zelensky’s presentation also implies to Ukraine’s lawmakers and the country’s people that unless the country’s “partners” ensure these conditions are met, Ukraine will eventually have to offer concessions of its own – including a de facto recognition that Russia will keep at least some of the land its forces now occupy – if peace is to be achieved.

Myanmar junta calls for peace talks with minority militias — not pro-democracy fighters

After a year of rebel victories that have left Myanmar’s ruling junta on the defensive, its chairman, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, invited ethnic minority armies to peace talks in a state television broadcast on Tuesday. The junta's invitation likely aims to divide these groups from pro-democracy fighters from the ethnic Burmese majority.

About half of Myanmar’s 21 armed ethnic militias signed onto a cease-fire agreement between 2015 and 2018 during a period of democratic reform, but heavy hitters like the United Wa State Army and Kachin Independence Army stayed in the fight, and former signatories have since returned to combat.

Divide and conquer? Myanmar has experienced civil war since 1948, but the military has historically maintained control of the fertile and densely populated lowlands, even while minorities resisted in the hills and mountains. Only when ethnic Burmese rose up with the backing of the Buddhist clergy in 1988 and 2007 did the generals cede some political power.

But after the military toppled the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, her supporters formed the so-called National Unity Government and set up armed People’s Defense Forces. They’re believed to have up to 100,000 fighters, and the PDF has cooperated with allies from the highlands to wrest approximately 86% of Myanmar’s townships from junta control, including major border crossings.

So far, none of the major militias seem eager to take part, but we’re watching what measures of autonomy the junta might offer them to achieve a cease-fire — and to free up resources to crush the PDF.

Another shot at the Rainbow Nation dream?

This unexpected alliance between South Africa’s long-ruling ANC and the Democratic Alliance has shown early signs of promise. One hundred days into the country’s Government of National Unity – made up of the erstwhile archrivals – voters are more positive about the country’s direction, and investors are bullish about its economic prospects. President Cyril Ramaphosa has even called the GNU South Africa’s “second miracle” – the first being the peaceful transition from apartheid to multiracial democracy in 1994.

Ramaphosa isn’t overplaying it: His African National Congress, once led by Nelson Mandela, campaigns on its history of Black liberation, while the Democratic Alliance is seen as the party of the white minority. Their odd marriage resulted from the ANC losing its parliamentary majority earlier this year – for the first time since 1994. Frustrating coalition talks in June prompted ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula to describe the parties as “oil and water.”

And yet, they’ve made progress. The rand has strengthened 6% against the dollar since July, and the stock market has rallied by 20%. Ramaphosa says South Africa aims to triple its GDP growth to 3% this year.

Saffers are noticing. A 58% majority think the GNU is doing well and – rather incredibly – 62% of Black voters approve of the DA’s job performance (fewer than 5% supported the DA in the election). Some 40% say their country is now on the right track, double the figure from June.

Too early to declare success. Still, the GNU’s ad-hoc style is likely to come up short when tackling the big issues, such as corruption, crime, decrepit infrastructure, and poor energy and water supplies. Daunting, but in the words of Mandela, “It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

Hard Numbers: Harris goes into Fox’s den, Italy’s international surrogacy ban, Nigeria’s fuel tanker explosion, Hong Kong tries to get the party started, Jimmy Carter casts his 21st presidential ballot

200 million: Kamala Harris went into conservative territory to appear on Fox News on Wednesday night. In a pre-taped, 30-minute interview with network host Bret Baier, the vice president was grilled on immigration and her history of supporting taxes used to fund gender-affirming care for federal prisoners and detained immigrants. The interview was contentious, with the two repeatedly talking over one another. Fox News, which reaches nearly 200 million people each month, was just the latest stop on Harris’ media blitz – and was likely an attempt to reach independents and moderate Republicans.

1.25: Surrogacy has been banned in Italy for 20 years, but Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’sconservative government has just gone a step further and criminalized seeking surrogacy abroad. Conservative lawmakers argued that they passed the law because they believe surrogacy is exploitative of women. Critics argued it would deprive gay or infertile couples of a way to have children and noted that the legislation targets a relatively small number of families in a country that already has a low birth rate.

100: A massive fuel tanker explosion in northern Nigeria killed 100 people and left 50 injured on Wednesday. The tanker exploded after veering to avoid colliding with a truck in the town of Maja. Fuel tanker explosions are common in Africa’s most populous nation, where roads can be poorly maintained. Complicating matters, residents often rush toward the tanker to siphon off fuel following accidents amid the country’s worst economic crisis in a generation.

10: Hong Kong has slashed its booze tax, one of the highest in the world, as the Chinese territory seeks to boost nightlife and revive its struggling economy. Until now, spirits with an alcoholic content of more than 30%, including brandy, whisky, and gin, had been subject to a 100% duty in Hong Kong. But the financial hub has been hit hard by China’s slowing economy and the fall in tourist numbers, leading the Beijing-backed government to slash the duty rate to 10%.

21: Former US President Jimmy Carter, who turned 100 this month, voted by mail on the first day of Georgia’s early voting on Tuesday. Although he did not reveal who he voted for, he told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in August that, even more than making it to his 100th birthday, he was “only trying to make it to vote for Kamala Harris.” At 19, Carter likely cast his first vote in the 1944 presidential election, as a part of the first cohort of voters made eligible to vote by Georgia lowering its voting age to 18, making this his 21st presidential election.