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Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer, we ask The Economist's editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes: Did Wall Street get President Trump wrong?
Candidate Trump promised to lower taxes and drastically reduce government regulation. This message resonated as much with Wall Street as it did with Main Street. After surviving, if not thriving, under President Trump's first term in office, the business community no longer feared Trump's unpredictability. They overlooked his fixation on tariffs and his promises of mass deportations.
However, the first months of Trump 2.0 have been a time of economic warfare and market volatility. President Trump slapped tariffs on America's largest trading partners and closest allies and began to make good on a promise to deport millions of illegal immigrants. So where is this all heading, and what does it mean for the rest of the world?
Stranded passengers at Heathrow Terminal 5 in London on Friday, March 21, 2025.
1,300: Traveling through the UK will be hectic today after London’s Heathrow Airport, which handles roughly 1,300 flights per day, unexpectedly closed overnight due to a power outage. The airport, one of the world’s busiest, will remain closed until 11.59 p.m. tonight following a fire at a nearby electrical substation, which supplies the facility’s power. Thousands of travelers have been left stranded.
40,000: Israel’s cabinet on Friday unanimously voted to dismiss Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, marking the first such removal in the country’s history. The move intensifies Israel’s political and constitutional crises, as Bar was investigating Netanyahu’s aides over alleged payments from Qatar, and critics fear Netanyahu will appoint a loyalist to politicize the agency. The long-anticipated decision was met with over 40,000 people protesting in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
1,000’s: Thousands of Turks are protesting the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, after he was arrested Thursday on graft and terrorism-related charges. Opposition leaders have condemned Imamoglu’s arrest as a political coup, and he posted to X, “We must stand against this evil as a nation.”
50: The European Union has postponed two sets of retaliatory tariffs on US products, including a 50% levy on American whiskey, from April 1 to mid-month. According to EU spokesperson Olof Gill, the delay represents a “slight adjustment” to allow more time for negotiations. American tariffs against a wide range of EU goods are still set to take effect on April 2, though their exact amount remains unknown.
4.2: US existing home sales surged 4.2% in February, despite higher mortgage rates, upending expectations that sales would drop by a monthly rate of 3.2%. But sales remain below levels from a year ago, and homes are taking longer to sell as high prices and borrowing costs continue to deter some buyers.
24: The United States fell from 23rd to 24th place out of 147 countries – its lowest ranking ever – in the annual World Happiness Report, which was released Thursday. Finland remains the happiest nation for the eighth year in a row, followed once again by Denmark, Iceland, and Sweden.
Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas arrives at the Consilium building in Brussels, Belgium, on March 20, 2025.
Though European leaders have been excluded from Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine, meetings on Thursday in Brussels and London aimed to demonstrate Europe’s continuing commitment to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs to repel Russian invaders.
An EU Summit in Brussels culminated with a commitment from all member states except Hungary to affirm that “the European Union maintains its ‘peace through strength’ approach,” a policy that commits European governments to supporting Ukraine in preserving “its own robust military and defense capabilities.” (Hungary’s pro-Kremlin Prime Minister Viktor Orban maintains his objections to support for Ukraine.) Russia’s Vladimir Putin insists that no comprehensive ceasefire is possible if Western governments continue to help arm Ukraine.
In addition, discussions in London have focused on a possible “reassurance force” that the “coalition of the willing” would provide. This so-called Multinational Force Ukraine would be intended to encourage confidence in the country’s security by providing air cover, a naval presence in the Black Sea to protect trade flows, and about 20,000 troops on the ground. Critics of the idea say a force this small may instill some confidence but can’t keep the peace. Proponents insist the force would be strong enough to protect cities, ports, and the most vital energy infrastructure.
Volodymyr Zelensky gestures as he attends a press conference on March 12, 2025.
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky had a phone call on Wednesday that had supporters of Ukraine’s defense on the edge of their seats. After the call ended, Trump quickly took to Truth Social to characterize the nearly hourlong exchange as a “very good telephone call.” He added, “We are very much on track.” Zelensky issued a statement later on Wednesday that called the conversation “positive” and “very substantive,” prompting sighs of relief from Kyiv to Brussels.
Zelensky’s statement also said that “together with America, with President Trump, and under American leadership, lasting peace can be achieved this year,” a comment that says less about the near-term chances for peace than about how much the Ukrainian president has learned about what it takes to keep Trump onside. Still, in his post on X, Zelensky agreed that ending strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure was a good first step, saying "I supported this step, and Ukraine confirmed that we are ready to implement it."
But the Ukrainian leader also has repeatedly warned Trump that when it comes to dealing with Vladimir Putin, one must “trust but verify.” Ukraine had already accused Russia of targeting energy infrastructure in the early hours of Wednesday morning and of a new attack on the electricity system powering the railways in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region. This is despite the fact that Putin has said he ordered the Russian military to halt energy infrastructure attacks right after getting off the phone with Trump on Tuesday.
In better news, Russia and Ukraine swapped 175 prisoners of war each on Wednesday, one of the largest exchanges the two sides have made, according to Zelensky.
Today, EU leaders are meeting in Brussels to discuss further support for Ukraine, and Zelensky is set to open the summit with a speech made by video link.
Ekrem Imamoglu, from Republican People's Party, is seen as one of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's strongest political rivals.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan launched a widespread crackdown on his political opposition Wednesday when police arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu just days before the popular opposition leader was set to win his party’s presidential nod.
İmamoğlu emerged as Erdoğan’s chief rival after winning the top job in the nation’s largest city in 2019. Erdoğan’s conservative religious Justice and Development Party, whose candidate came in second place for a position seen as a stepping stone to higher office, demanded a recount – then a rerun – of the election. İmamoğlu netted even more votes the second time and won reelection last year.
The mayor’s secular Republican People’s Party was expected to nominate him for president on Sunday.
On Tuesday, Istanbul University revoked İmamoğlu’s diploma, citing alleged irregularities in his transcripts from when he transferred in 1990 from a private college in northern Cyprus. İmamoğlu was expected to appeal the decision, which effectively barred him from seeking the highest office.
Then, on Wednesday, police arrested İmamoğlu and more than 100 of his political allies amid a corruption and terror probe.
“A handful of minds are trying to usurp the will of the nation by using our beloved policemen … as an instrument of evil,” İmamoğlu said in a video filmed in his closet as he donned a tie while the police were outside his house. “Let my nation know I will continue to stand firm. I will continue to fight against that man.”
Financial blowback: The Turkish lira plunged Wednesday to a record low against the dollar.
Public response? Erdoğan’s allies issued a four-day ban on public demonstrations and press statements but that has not stopped protesters from taking to the streets in a show of anger. A representative from İmamoğlu's party is set to address supporters in Istanbul today, and several demonstrations are planned on the city's university campuses.
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: The Putin-Trump call, some 90 minutes long, now over. And I would call this a win for both sides, for the Americans and the Russians, and not horrible for Ukraine and Europe, but kicking the can on what's going to be some big problems down the road and setting out where those challenges are going to be. Why is that?
Well, first of all, Putin said, "No," to the 30-day complete ceasefire, but did give a win to Trump, having accepted a 30-day ceasefire with no conditions with the Ukrainians. The Russians are saying they're prepared to do that, with no gives, as long as it's about targeting energy infrastructure, and in principle, still some discussions around maritime attacks around the Black Sea. Places that frankly the Russians have been irritated with what Ukraine has been able to do with air drones and with sea drones. And also allows the Russians to continue to press for territorial gains over the course of the coming weeks, depleting Ukraine's military capabilities. Plus, the weather's getting warmer, how much damage are you going to do to Ukraine, how miserable you can make them when you're no longer dealing with the freeze is not quite as relevant. So, not a particular loss for the Russians.
The fact that you're going to have less engagement militarily means fewer people will get killed. That's good for everybody involved, frankly. So that's where we are. Did you need 90-minutes to get that going? Not really, because the Russians also want to ensure that they have lots of conversations with the Americans about building business between the two sides, about people-to-people engagement, about finding a way to ensure that there is an ongoing bilateral channel where the Europeans aren't involved, where the Ukrainians aren't involved, that's essential for Putin and that he got. So yes, you have a meaningful, relatively contained ceasefire that maybe you can build on, but you also have a meaningful bilateral channel for broader engagement between the Americans and the Russians that the Ukrainians and the Europeans aren't going to be a part of, and that the Americans have no interest in having the Ukrainians Europeans being a part of.
Now, what Trump has heard from Putin in terms of red lines is that to actually have a comprehensive ceasefire ongoing, that the Russians are demanding, that there is no further intelligence or military support to Ukraine from the United States or Europe. That's obviously a non-starter for the Ukrainians because it means they won't be able to defend themselves as the Russians rebuild. It's a non-starter for the Europeans for similar reasons. Trump might be willing to negotiate that, and if he is, then he and Putin can blame Ukraine and the Europeans for not being able to take a 30-day limited ceasefire and expand it, which is exactly the position that Putin wants to be in. So, Putin giving a little bit in the near-term with the hopes of getting a lot more in the longer-term, getting Trump as it were, a little bit pregnant around a deal so that he's more engaged with the Russians in areas that's going to be more consequential and more costly for Europe and for the Ukrainians.
So that's where we are. We don't know yet whether the Ukrainians are going to accept these limited 30-day terms. I expect they will, because Trump wants them to. And when that happens, the Europeans will be onboard, too. The intention will be to try to use that by the Ukrainians, the Europeans, to try to get a longer, broader ceasefire. But there, the working level conversations between the US and Russia, between the US and Ukraine, are going to be far more difficult and they're probably not going to hold.
It feels a little bit like what we have in Gaza. Relatively easy to get the first iteration of a deal in place where no one's really giving anything up, but as you go into the second phase, you find that the fundamental interests don't actually overlap, and that's why we're fighting again on the ground in Gaza, with the Israelis killing hundreds of people there in the last 24-hours, and it's why I expect ultimately we are not heading towards peace, even though we do get a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine.
Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump hold a bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 28, 2019.
Putin offered Trump a ceasefire that would halt attacks by either side on energy infrastructure, a frequent recent target of both Russian and Ukrainian long-range fire. The two sides would exchange prisoners, though it’s not yet clear which ones, and Trump and Putin agreed to begin bargaining over terms for safe shipping in the Black Sea. These are Russia’s conditions for a ceasefire.
A few minutes later, Trump posted on his Truth Social account that, during their “very good and productive phone call,” Putin had agreed to an “immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and infrastructure,” and that all sides would be “working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire” and “an END to this very horrible war.”
This falls well short of the immediate cessation of fighting on land, sea, and air that Trump hoped to announce.
By agreeing last week to Trump’s no-preconditions ceasefire, Ukraine was able to push the diplomatic ball into Russia’s court. Putin has now slapped it back, and it’s not yet clear how the Ukrainian government will respond.