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Europe
Hard Numbers: Typhoon rips through the Philippines, Europe wants more rail, Israel returns bodies to Gaza, Canada’s Carney unveils first budget
85: A typhoon ripped through the Philippines on Tuesday, killing at least 85 people and forcing roughly 400,000 people to flee their homes – many of which are now flooded. The typhoon is set to continue through other parts of Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand.
€345 billion: Europe may be tightening its internal borders, but it’s still pushing its trains: The European Union on Wednesday laid out a €345-billion ($396-billion) plan to slash train times between major European cities over the next 10-15 years. Under the plan, there will be trains that run at 200 kilometers per hour (roughly 125 mph) between each major EU city.
15: Israel returned the bodies of 15 Palestinians to Gaza on Wednesday, as part of ongoing exchanges required by last month’s ceasefire deal. Israeli authorities have now returned 285 bodies since the deal was signed, though it is not clear how many more they are holding. Hamas still holds the remains of seven Israeli hostages.
CA$78 billion: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled his first budget on Tuesday, which includes new infrastructure spending, funds for the military, and major immigration cuts. However, the budget shows a deficit of $78 billion, the second-largest in the country’s history.
What We’re Watching: Some Americans head to the polls, German U-turn on Syrian asylum policy, Russia may have to find new oil buyers
Democratic candidate for New York City mayor, Zohran Mamdani, votes in the New York City mayoral election at a polling site at the Frank Sinatra School of the Arts High School in Astoria, Queens borough of New York City, USA, on November 4, 2025.
It’s Election Day in the United States
It’s the first Tuesday after Nov. 1, which means it’s US election day. Key ballots to watch include the mayoral race in New York City – where democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is poised to pull off an upset that will echo into national level politics – as well as state Supreme Court races in Pennsylvania, and ballot initiatives on gerrymandering in California. Don’t forget about the New Jersey governor election either, where GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli is looking to eke out a victory against Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill. New Jersey was once reliably blue but has been getting more purple in recent years: in 2020 Joe Biden won it by 17 points, but Donald Trump lost by just four last year.
Germany to end asylum for Syrians
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says Syrians no longer have grounds for political asylum in his country now that the Syrian civil war is over. Merz called for a repatriation program to ease burdens on Germany and accelerate the rebuilding of Syria, though the United Nations warns Syria still isn’t ready to absorb a large population of returnees. It was exactly ten years ago that Chancellor Angela Merkel declared “Wir schaffen das” (we can do it), establishing a generous asylum policy that welcomed in more than a million Syrians fleeing their country’s horrific civil war. A decade later, with the war over and the far right surging on anti-immigrant backlash, Merz is now saying, “Wir schaffen das nicht.”
Is India buying less Russian oil?
Last month, Trump announced sanctions on Russia’s top two oil companies, in a bid to squeeze the Kremlin’s war effort by scaring off major crude buyers like India and China. Is it working? Preliminary data show India’s imports of Russian oil actually increased slightly in October compared to September. But wait, there’s more: India’s purchases in the second half of October plummeted compared to the first half. That may have something to do with the fact that Trump announced the sanctions on Oct. 23. They don’t take effect until later this month, so we’ll be watching to see what the November data tell us. With Chinese firms now also reportedly exploring alternative sources of oil, Russia may in fact start feeling the effects of US sanctions (for more on this, and whether it would change his approach to Ukraine, read here).
What We’re Watching: Trump threatens Nigeria, Jihadis surround Mali’s capital, Latin Americans back US-led regime change in Venezuela
Farmers proceed to their fields for cultivation under Nigerian Army escort while departing Dikwa town in Borno State, Nigeria, on August 27, 2025. Despite the threat of insurgent attacks, farmers in Borno are gradually returning to their farmlands under military escort, often spending limited time on cultivation.
Trump threatens hit on Nigeria over plight of Christians
US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened military action against Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, over the government’s alleged failure to protect Christian communities, who make up nearly half of the country’s 231 million people. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu rejected the claims, which echo a growing concern about anti-Christian violence among the American right, though his adviser said he’d “welcome US assistance” in combating jihadist insurgencies such as ISWAP, which have targeted Christian communities. In addition, there has been a surge in sectarian violence in Nigeria this year, a result of intensifying competition for land and resources between farmers, who are typically Christian, and herders, who are mostly Muslim.
Mali on verge of succumbing to jihadis
Meanwhile, in nearby Mali, jihadis have surrounded and blockaded the capital of Bamako, starving the city’s four million residents of fuel. The militants are now on the cusp of taking power from the Russian-backed military junta there. This is the latest twist in a 13-year long conflict that has featured three military coups, a French invasion, a Russian intervention, a French withdrawal, and a notorious jihadi leader nicknamed “One-Eyed Nelson.” The rise of an ultraconservative jihadist caliphate would subject Mali’s people – especially its women – to immense hardship, while also threatening to create a fresh refugee crisis that could ripple towards Europe. It would also mark a fresh setback for Russia, and could boost jihadist groups that have sprouted in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
Split-screen on regime change in Venezuela
Nearly half of Americans oppose US-led regime change in Venezuela, and just 18% support it, a YouGov poll says. But people in the region see things differently, according to a multi-country Bloomberg study that shows 53% of respondents want Tío Sam to knock out Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Mexico is the only country where opposition surpasses support for the idea. Within Venezuela? A plurality said they “don’t know.” The US has recently been striking boats it says belong to drug traffickers tied to the Venezuelan regime. But with more US warships in the region than at any time since the 1989-1990 invasion of Panamá, many are wondering if Maduro’s regime itself is the eventual target. (For more on what that could look like, see here.)
US President Donald Trump (sixth from left) and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (seventh from left) arrive at the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) in Yokosuka City, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, on October 28, 2025.
Last Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced that Washington will restart nuclear-weapons testing, raising fears that it could end a 33-year moratorium on nuclear-warhead testing.
“Because of other countries (sic) testing programs,” Trump said, “I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.”
What is nuclear testing? Nuclear powers – including the US, Russia, and others – test missiles and other delivery systems regularly. Russia has recently been developing new cruise missiles and underwater drones that are nuclear capable. However, no nation other than North Korea has been confirmed to test a nuclear warhead in over three decades. In an interview aired Sunday on CBS, Trump claimed, “Russia’s testing, and China’s testing, but they don’t talk about it.” Both countries deny the allegation. International agreements from the 1960s ban nuclear testing.
What tests will the US actually conduct? On Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News, “I think the tests we’re talking about right now are systems tests... These are not nuclear explosions. These are what we call noncritical explosions.”
Why announce testing now? Trump made the announcement just prior to meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea last Thursday. In the past five years, Beijing has doubled its nuclear arsenal to 600 weapons, and the Pentagon estimates that China will have more than 1,000 by 2030. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the US and Russia are still the top two nuclear powers with 5177 and 5459 respectively.
Vice President JD Vance said all three countries have a large nuclear arsenal and that “sometimes you’ve got to test it to make sure it’s functioning and working properly.”
The move comes amidst a disintegrating arms control regime. In the 1970s and 80s the US and the USSR sought to limit the growth of their nuclear arsenals through the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) I and II and the INF treaty, which reduced total warhead count and eliminated the development of ground-launched nuclear missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. In the 1990s and 2000s, the US and Russia concluded three Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START) Treaties, ultimately capping the number of deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 each.
But in recent years arms control has been unravelling. In 2019, the US withdrew from a treaty that outlawed intermediate range nuclear missiles, because it said Russia had been violating the pact. Four years later, Moscow suspended its participation in START II and resumed testing nuclear weapons delivery systems.
What risks lie ahead? Trump wants to conduct as many tests as Russia and China “within five years,” which could spur both nations to increase their testing to remain competitive. Daryl Kimball, director of the Arms Control Association, warned that Trump's announcement could “trigger a chain reaction of nuclear testing by U.S. adversaries, and blow apart the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
Ending the “testing taboo” could also encourage smaller nuclear nations like North Korea, Pakistan and India, and aspiring nuclear powers like Iran, to engage in testing as well.
And even if testing is confined to new delivery systems alone, the race to develop new, stealthier and more destructive nuclear missiles, rockets, and drones is likely to accelerate.
All of this has scientists considering advancing the hands of the so-called “doomsday clock.” Currently, they sit at 89 seconds to midnight – the closest they have ever been.
Listen: US President Donald Trump has been piling the pressure on Russia and Venezuela in recent weeks. He placed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms and bolstered the country’s military presence around Venezuela – while continuing to bomb ships coming off Venezuela’s shores. But what exactly are Trump’s goals? And can he achieve them? And how are Russia and Venezuela, two of the largest oil producers in the world, responding?
GZERO reporters Zac Weisz and Riley Callanan discuss.
What We’re Watching: King’s brother loses royal title, Japan-China tensions surround leaders’ summit, Deadly Rio raid becomes national political issue
Prince Andrew – now Andrew Mountbatten Windsor – leaves Buckingham Palace on the day of King Charles' coronation ceremony, in London, United Kingdom, on May 6, 2023.
Epstein scandal takes down the king’s brother
Prince Andrew is now just Andrew Mountbatten Windsor, after Buckingham Palace stripped King Charles III’s younger brother of his royal titles on Thursday night. The move was caused by Andrew’s relationship with child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and the ex-prince’s alleged relations with the late Virginia Giuffre when she was a teenager. He will also have to leave his royal home in Windsor. Andrew’s public demise began in 2019, when he had a disastrous interview with the BBC – the interview even became a subject of a film. Despite losing his title, Andrew remains eighth in line to the throne. The Epstein scandal has forced major exits in the UK, but not in the US – could that change?
Cordial Xi-Takaichi meeting masks simmering Japan-China tensions
Is Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi the Viktor Orban of the Pacific? While Takaichi said she “spoke frankly” to Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday about Beijing’s rare-earth export curbs, aggression in the East China Sea, and human-rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, the two leaders also agreed to pursue “constructive and stable ties.” Like her ultra-conservative Hungarian counterpart, Takaichi appears to be building a close relationship with US President Donald Trump while engaging with Beijing – no small feat as tensions heat up in the Indo-Pacific.
Deadly Rio raid becomes national political issue in Brazil
Many of the bodies are still being identified, but the staggering death toll of this week’s raid by police on drug traffickers in a Rio de Janeiro favela has already become hotly politicized. The move against the powerful Comanda Vermelha gang was the deadliest in Brazil’s history: 160 people are dead, including four police officers. Politicians on the right praised the operation, while those on the left – including President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – have denounced traffickers but questioned the effectiveness of violent crackdowns. The issue will surely shape next year’s presidential election, with crime a top concern for voters. Lula recently announced that he will seek a fourth and final term.
Hard Numbers: Massive drug raid in Brazil, Five Republicans vote to scrap Brazil tariffs, Wildlife charity eyes duke’s estate, & More
Members of the military police special unit detain suspected drug dealers during a police operation against drug trafficking at the favela do Penha, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 28, 2025.
64: A massive police raid targeting a drug-trafficking organization in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, yesterday has left at least 64 people dead, including four police officers. The state governor said it was the “biggest operation” in Rio’s history. More than 40 bodies were seen strewn on the streets of the Penha favela on Wednesday.
5: Five Republican senators crossed party lines to vote to end the Trump administration’s 50% tariff on Brazil. The resolution is unlikely to pass the House, but the vote signaled growing resistance in the Republican ranks to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff and trade agenda.
750,000: Cuba evacuated 750,000 people before Hurricane Melissa made landfall on the Caribbean island on Wednesday. The storm only adds to a torrent of challenges for the communist-ruled country, which has faced economic collapse, frequent blackouts, and a mass exodus of its citizens. The category 5 storm has weakened to category 2 since wreaking havoc in Jamaica, which is still assessing the cost.
99.9%: Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates today? Futures markets this morning gave a 99.9% chance of a 25 basis-point cut (that’s 0.25 percentage points). This would be the second consecutive month of rate cuts. Trump has pushed the Fed for deeper and faster rate cuts than that.
£30 million: After seven centuries of family control, the son of a British duke is looking to sell his family’s estate in north-east England, and one of the interested buyers is… a wildlife charity. The Wildlife Trusts already bought the western part of the estate last year, but the plot thickens: it’s now looking to buy the remaining 3,839 hectares for £30 million ($40 million). The charity would try to conserve and rewild the area, which is rich with wildlife. Editor’s note: People outside the UK may wonder why we included this fascinating number – but GZERO’s Zac Weisz assures us it’s a real banger for his fellow Brits.