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Graphic Truth
American trust in its judicial system has fallen dramatically, plummeting away from other wealthy nations. New Gallup data shows American confidence in courts hitting a record low of 35% in 2024, placing it far behind the median of OECD countries where majority trust remains intact. The 20-point gap between US and OECD median trust levels in 2024 marks the widest divide since tracking began in 2006.
The 24-percentage-point decline over four years represents one of the steepest drops globally, rivaling decreases seen in countries experiencing political upheaval like Myanmar and Venezuela. This places the United States in concerning company, especially since dramatic institutional trust declines typically coincide with significant political instability or civil unrest.
The erosion of confidence spans political lines, though following different patterns. Among those disapproving of current leadership, trust fell from 46% to 29% since 2021, possibly because of Donald Trump supporters disagreements with the federal indictments brought against him for hush money, racketeering, and Jan. 6. Even more striking, those approving of leadership maintained steady confidence around 62% until 2024, when it dropped sharply to 44%, possibly reflecting dissatisfaction with the immunity Supreme Court ruling which favored Trump.
Cost of Christmas Trees over time
Bah humbug! Christmas tree prices are up again in 2024, with the American Christmas Tree Association reporting that the average price has risen 10% over the last year. However, growers have reported steady demand since the pandemic, and supply is holding strong despite drought conditions and wildfires in recent months on the East Coast. That being said, location matters. Urban areas will see higher prices than rural regions.
The number of US Christmas tree farms fell sharply during the 2008 financial crisis and has continued to decline — so much so that 10% of the Christmas trees sold in the US come from Canada. Christmas trees take eight to 10 years to grow, making it difficult to start new farms and even harder to turn a profit. Inflation has raised the cost of fertilizer and fuel, and these costs are being passed on to consumers.
Meanwhile, prices for fake trees, which 78% of consumers polled said they intend to buy, are also up $5 on average this year. But fake trees have a far greater range of prices, with some costing as much as $1,000.
Environmental economics. Interestingly, the environmental calculus favors chopping down real trees over manufacturing plastic replicas. Researchers suggest that reusing an artificial tree three to five times can reduce carbon footprint, but each real tree purchase supports forest ecosystems and local farmers.
Supporters of the current threshold say it streamlines trade, particularly in a world in which e-commerce is soaring. But critics point out that the US threshold is way higher than anyone else’s, and that foreign exporters often exploit that to evade import duties and inspections.
Chinese e-commerce exporters in particular use de minimis rules to skirt US tariffs, while drug cartels ship fentanyl to the US in a similar way. Someone even tried to import a helicopter from Venezuela by breaking it up into small packages labeled as “personal effects.”
The Biden administration recently cracked down on Chinese exporters’ abuse of de minimis thresholds, and the incoming Trump administration is certain to hit this issue even harder.
Here’s a snapshot of how the US threshold compares globally, along with a look at the massive rise in de minimis shipments to the US over the past 10 years.
Although high grocery bills may have contributed to the Democrats’ losses in the US election on Nov. 5, Americans can be grateful that the cost of their upcoming Thanksgiving dinner is, in fact, declining. Prices for the holiday’s traditional staples have fallen for a second consecutive year.
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the average cost of a Thanksgiving meal for 10 people is projected to be $58.08 in 2024. That’s 5% lower than last year’s bill of $61.17 and down from a record high of $64.05 in 2022. Still, prices remain 19% higher they were in 2019, on the eve of the pandemic.
Key contributors to this year’s price drop include significant reductions in the costs of sweet potatoes (down 26.2%) and turkey (down 5.6%) after previous spikes. Some items like dinner rolls and fresh cranberries have seen price increases, as have the costs of eggs and chicken, owing to recent outbreaks of bird flu.
The drop in turkey prices is due in part to a decline in demand, as Americans increasingly choose other proteins to be the centerpiece of their meal. As a result, farmers raised only 205 million of the birds in 2024, down 6% from 2023, marking the lowest level since 1985.
Obesity and Ozempic use in the US and Canada
Obesity rates have risen strikingly since the 1990s in the US, according to a newstudy from The Lancet, with nearly three-quarters of the country overweight or obese — and more than 50% considered obese or severely obese. Obesity has also been on the rise in Canada, with 30% of adults considered obese in 2023.
Amidst skyrocketing obesity, usage of Ozempic — a drug that aids with weight loss by mimicking the “fullness” hormone in the brain and curbing appetite — has also been increasing, with prescriptions rising by 300% in the US between 2020-2022. As of 2023, 12% of adults in Canada use the drug, compared to 10% in the US. While usage levels are relatively similar in both countries, prices are drastically different, with the weight loss drug costing over $600 more per month in the US.
This has led many Americans to cross thenorthern border to obtain the drug. And numbers could grow depending on policies put in place by Donald Trump’s nominee for Health and Human Services, Robert F Kennedy Jr., who has been highly critical of Ozempic as a treatment for obesity and diabetes.
Donald Trump has promised a laundry list of things he will accomplish “on Day 1” in office. To name a few, he has vowed to immediately begin a mass deportation of immigrants, streamline the federal government, pardon Jan. 6 rioters, and roll back the Biden administration’s education and climate policies.
But Trump will face an uphill battle. While he will have a united Congress behind him, he will still need to circumvent budgetary, logistical, and political barriers – especially for some of his most ambitious goals, like deporting millions of immigrants.
With the help of Echelon Insights, GZERO polled over 1,000 Americans about what they think Donald Trump is likely to do first. The majority of respondents believed that Trump’s first priority in office will be deporting unauthorized immigrants, followed by pardoning Jan. 6 rioters and enacting tariffs on China.
What do you think Trump is likely to do first in office? Shoot us an email sharing your prediction here.It’s not yet clear how he will follow through with that threat – mainstream economists have warned of its inflationary effects – but the president-elect and top advisers, including his former trade chiefRobert Lighthizer, are working hard on it as Trump prepares to take office in January.
What effect would a blanket tariff have on Canada, whose economy is tightly integrated with the US? Brace yourself. A recent report by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimated that a permanent 10% US tariff on Canada would cause US imports to fall by 10%, and knock as much as 5% off of Canada’s GDP.
Here’s a look at just how dependent Canada’s economy is on the US, and the key export categories.