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Africa
Hard Numbers: Kenya’s long-time opposition leader dies, World Bank doubles down on agriculture, US revokes visas of Charlie Kirk critics, & more
Kenya's opposition leader Raila Odinga addresses delegates after President William Ruto signed the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Amendment Bill 2024, backed by the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO), at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre in Nairobi, Kenya, on July 9, 2024.
80: Kenya’s long-time opposition leader Raila Odinga, who unsuccessfully ran for president five times but served as prime minister from 2008 to 2013, died of a heart attack in the Indian city of Kochi on Wednesday, at the age of 80. Though Odinga was generally out of power, his populist ideals and combative style gave him an outsized influence on the East African country.
$9 billion: At the World Bank/IMF annual meetings this week, the Bank pledged to double its annual investment in agriculture and farming to $9 billion. The program, called AgriConnect, will help fund the 500 million smallholder farmers globally who produce 80% of the food consumed, aiming to create more jobs and financing opportunities for the sector.
250,000: El Fasher, Sudan, has been declared “uninhabitable” after 549 days under siege by RSF forces. Ninety percent of homes are destroyed, food and water are nearly gone, and acute malnutrition affects children and mothers. Constant bombardment, hospital attacks, and communication blackouts have left 250,000 civilians trapped and barely surviving inside the paramilitary force’s blockade of the city.
6: The US has revoked the visas of at least six foreigners who “celebrated” the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, part of the Trump administration’s crackdown on “far-left radicals.” The move follows expanded social media vetting by immigration officials and mass visa cancellations. Trump also posthumously awarded Kirk the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Tuesday.
3.5 million: In a desperate bid to end France’s short-term political chaos, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said he will delay President Emmanuel Macron’s signature pension reform, a move he says will benefit 3.5 million people. Lecornu hopes that the move will bring Socialist Party deputies onside, ensuring that he lives to fight another day.
People walk past a jewelry store in the Diamond District of Manhattan, New York City, USA, on August 6, 2025.
If you’re thinking of slipping an engagement ring on your partner’s finger this year, you may find some deals out there.
The price of all diamonds, both rough and lab-grown, has plummeted in recent years. The price of a natural, one-carat diamond dropped 26% over the last three years. The drop is even bigger for their lab-grown equivalents: a one-carat factory-made diamond now costs much less than half what it did in 2022. Since 2016, the value of these one-carat lab-grown diamonds is down 86%.
The reasons for this are clear: with prospective spouses increasingly switching to lab-grown rocks for ethical, environmental and cost purposes, there is less and less demand for natural ones. A study from The Knot last year found that more than half of couples used a lab-grown diamond on their engagement ring, and that popularity for these alternatives has increased 40% in recent years.
Wouldn’t higher demand for lab-grown rocks increase their value? Ordinarily, yes, but the manufacturers are flooding the market as they seek to capitalize on the wave of new demand for factory-made gems.
The consequences of these changes stretch beyond the industry – Botswana, the largest producer of extracted diamonds, has particularly suffered. The sector accounts for over 90% of the southern African nation’s exports, per the World Bank, and a quarter of its gross domestic product. The diamond downturn has tanked the economy, with the unemployment rate reaching nearly 28% last year.
The country’s politics has been turned upside down, too: human rights lawyer Duma Boko capitalized on this economic downturn to win last year’s election and become Botswana’s president. He ousted the Botswana Democratic Party, which had ruled for nearly 60 years. Boko had pledged to create up to half a million jobs and to spread wealth across the nation.
To better understand why the diamond industry has tanked, and the consequences of this for geopolitics, GZERO spoke to its in-house diamond expert: Eurasia Group’s Commodities Director Tim Puko. This interview is edited for length and clarity.
GZERO: Why is the diamond industry crashing?
Puko: We’ve just seen a dramatic change in what’s available and who wants it. The thought formerly was you needed thousands and thousands of years to produce these things, and only the highest levels of authenticity were acceptable. But as we’ve seen with many other commodity products, even with diamonds, there are ways to replicate that get the job done just as well for consumers. And so you have this whole growth of lab-grown diamonds. That’s led the price down pretty precipitously.
GZERO: Which countries are worst affected?
Botswana is far and above the most affected. Russia and Angola, and some of Botswana’s neighbors in sub-Saharan Africa also make the list. But there’s nowhere that the amount of diamond sales, the revenue, matters quite as much as Botswana. Russia is a big diamond seller, but it just doesn’t compare to their oil industry. Botswana is kind of a one-industry country, right? It doesn’t have the alternatives for its economy. And so, even though Botswana has a pretty good reputation as being a place where diamonds are pretty ethically produced, if the whole market is going to crash like this, it’s a big, broad threat to Botswana on the whole.
GZERO: What are the political ramifications of the diamond price collapse?
We’ve already seen once-in-a-generation turnover of political power in Botswana. Even the new government – it still feels like their power is tenuous, because the economic downturn and political unrest around it has been so intense.
What’s more, Botswana had been the most stable, certainly the richest of all the sub-Saharan African countries, and a source of stability for the region. Botswana, in many cases, has been providing security forces in other countries that have had coups or destabilized events of one type or another. But if the number one source of its economic growth is gone, they’re just not going to be spending externally. How destabilizing is that for its neighbors that can’t count on Botswana’s help? And they’re not the only ones in the region facing problems like this. It might be the most intense for them, but the DRC has perpetual conflict on its eastern flank, a lot of that is related to copper and gold. This is a story that a lot of the neighbors in that region of the world are experiencing right now.
GZERO: Is it possible for diamond prices to recover? Or are diamonds no longer forever?
I always say the commodity cycle is undefeated, and all these things are cyclical, but the deck is really stacked against diamonds right now. And if you think about the direction that the world is heading on forces that have nothing to do with diamonds – world trade, inflation and interest rates, cost-of-living crises, the friction that’s happening around the world, often led by the richest countries – it trickles down to everyone and so many of the policies that, especially the protectionist policies that the United States and some of its peers have been exploring, make the world more expensive for everybody. And if the rich people in these rich countries, who used to be the number one source of demand for these diamonds, feel economic insecurity themselves, paired with ethical concerns that are predominant, will they value this type of luxury item? I’m not going to call the death of the diamond market forever, but for the foreseeable future, I don’t know what the saving grace would be for conventional diamonds and the countries that mine them.
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks to the members of the media, after arriving by plane to attend the Gaza Peace Summit, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, October 13, 2025.
10,000: Mali will now require US visitors to post a $10,000 bond for tourist and business visas, mirroring a US rule aimed at curbing visa overstays. The move follows similar measures by other African nations amid rising tensions between Washington and the Sahel’s military regimes, which are pivoting toward China and Russia.
10: Protests over Ecuador’s fuel price hikes intensified Sunday as demonstrators in Quito burned tires, blocked roads, and clashed with police. The unrest, led by Indigenous groups opposing President Daniel Noboa’s removal of fuel subsidies, has left one dead and prompted a state of emergency in 10 provinces.
3: Three economists, Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt won the 2025 Nobel Prize for their research on how innovation and “creative destruction” drive economic growth and living standards. The laureates warned that progress depends on openness, education, and trade — criticizing protectionism and political attacks on science and academia.
What We’re Watching: Israeli hostages return home, China snaps back at Trump’s tariff threat, Madagascar’s president flees the country
Released hostage Evyatar David, who was kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas and taken to Gaza, reacts upon arrival at the site of Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Hospital, in Petah Tikva, Israel, on October 13, 2025.
The Israeli hostages are finally home – but what next for Gaza?
After two years in Hamas captivity, the last 20 living Israeli hostages – all of them men – have returned home from Gaza, sparking jubilant scenes both for the families and across the Jewish state. US President Donald Trump touted their return during a speech to the Knesset, declaring that Israel was “at peace.” As part of the deal, Israel released over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. Though the ceasefire is holding in Gaza, there remains a huge amount of uncertainty over the fate of the enclave and its management, as thousands of Palestinians return home to destroyed neighborhoods. Hamas is reappearing on Gazan streets, and has been clashing with rival Palestinian clans in recent days – with dozens killed. Under Trump’s 20-point peace plan, Hamas will have no role in Gaza’s future, yet the US president said over the weekend that the militant group has “approval for a period of time” to run security there. But for how long?
China hits back following Trump’s tariff threat
There might be a ceasefire in Gaza, but the US-China trade war is heating up again, as Beijing pledged to hit back at Washington should Trump follow through with his Friday threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The US president is trying to bring the temperature down again, saying on social media yesterday that he doesn’t want to “hurt” China. He also appeared to retract his threat to cancel his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea. Markets swung wildly over the weekend and into Monday amid the latest war of words between the world’s two biggest superpowers.
Madagascar’s president flees the country
Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina fled the country on Monday, after the elite CAPSAT military unit joined the Gen-Z led protests that have raged across the country since September. CAPSAT further announced that they are taking over the army. The protests began over water and electricity shortages but have spiraled into grievances like corruption and quality of life. CAPSAT brought Rajoelina to power in a 2009 coup, but on Saturday announced that it would not shoot on the protesters and escorted them into the capital’s main square. The toppling of Madagascar’s government opens questions of who will lead the country next, and mirrors recent protests against ruling elites in countries like Nepal, Indonesia, and Morocco.
We’re living in a time of record-high conflict, a level of violence not seen since World War II. The past four years have been marred by deadly battles in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, and beyond, with approximately 14% of the planet’s population now impacted by war.
While the more than 120 million people displaced by conflict have acute needs of safety, shelter, food, and education, there are needs unseen that too frequently go untreated.
A mental health crisis
In an unprecedented assessment this summer, UNICEF reported that 100% of children in Gaza are in need of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS.) While the pending peace deal could put an end to the physical violence, the road to true wellness will be long and complicated for all those who have survived.
Globally, there are an estimated 66 million people in humanitarian crises living with mental health conditions. And of the less than 0.029% of global GDP that goes to humanitarian assistance, only 2% of that amount goes to mental health services.
If untreated, the impacts of this trauma can contribute to higher rates of depression and anxiety, learning loss and disrupted education, and even self harm. Suicide is the top cause of death globally for people ages 15-29.
A Greentree plan grows
Last November, United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed urged a gathering of more than 50 mental health experts to focus on this issue.
“We need to put the head back on the body” in our approach to humanitarian aid, DSG Mohammed told us in her closing remarks. Treating the needs of the body is only one part of the equation—caring for the mind is a large part of keeping a person well.
Now, a year after that event, the United Nations has launched the Greentree Acceleration Plan, named for the venue where the retreat was convened. With $13.2 million in backing from the Wellcome Trust, the UN is embarking on two pilot programs, one in Chad where 40% of the population requires aid, and the other in Lebanon.
The goal is to find scalable solutions to bring better mental health care to more countries, communities, and conflict zones around the world.
A day for awareness
Today, on World Mental Health day, I wanted to share with you a conversation I recently had with actress Carey Mulligan and activist Jin Dawood on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, during an event where the Greentree Acceleration Plan was announced.
Mulligan is an ambassador for War Child, a UK-based charity that provides mental health care, education, and support to kids in conflict zones worldwide. Dawood, herself a former refugee and survivor of civil war in Syria, founded Peace Therapist to provide digital MHPSS services to children in Arabic, Kurdish, Turkish, and English.
Both shared personal stories of children in crisis they’ve met through their work, and the importance of raising awareness for mental health support long after a war has ended.
Over dozens of trips to troubled regions, Mulligan has seen first-hand the impact that MHPSS can have on a child’s life. “Part of that is giving children the right to a childhood,” she said. “But also, you cannot expect a country to rebuild itself if children are illiterate and traumatized.”
As Dawood explained, “That's why it's so important for people to be able to have therapy, to be able to rebuild themselves from inside and start the inner peace, and also contribute to building peace in the world.”
Watch my full conversation with Carey Mulligan and Jin Dawood above..
Hard Numbers: Syria reaches pact with Kurdish fighters, Sudanese militia leader guilty of war crimes, emerging markets surge anew, luxury travel booms
Members of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) hold a flag in the divided city of Deir al-Zor, Syria December 7, 2024.
¼: The new Syrian government has signed a ceasefire with US-backed Kurdish fighters who control roughly a quarter of Syria’s territory, in a pact that could smooth the re-integration of Kurdish areas into the Syrian state. Recent clashes had upended earlier agreements to absorb Kurdish militias into the new Syrian army.
27: The international criminal court has found a leader of Sudan’s feared janjaweed militia guilty on 27 counts of atrocities committed during the Darfur genocide in the early 2000s. The charges included gang rape of women and children, torture, and summary executions. The court rejected the defendant’s arguments that it had captured the wrong man.
15: Stocks of companies in “emerging markets” – a grouping of the world’s leading middle-income countries – have seen their biggest gains in more than 15 years. The main reason? A weaker US dollar has made it easier for companies in these countries to service dollar-denominated debt. At the same time, many of these economies are keeping interest rates high, attracting more foreign capital, particularly as political uncertainty roils developed markets like the US and Europe.
390 billion: The rich keep getting richer… and then they go on holiday. Global spending on high end luxury travel will surpass $390 billion by 2028, according to McKinsey, up from $240 billion in 2023. Experts say the increasing availability of luxury goods has made them less interesting to the ultra-rich, who now flaunt their 1-percentness by seeking out stratospherically expensive and unique luxury experiences.
Hard Numbers: Earthquake rocks the Philippines, UN expands Haiti mission, Moscow cuts military budget, & More
A drone view of rescue workers conducting a rescue operation at a collapsed building in the aftermath of a 6.9-magnitude earthquake in Bogo, Cebu, Philippines, on October 1, 2025.
69: A 6.9-magnitude earthquake struck off Cebu, Philippines, late Tuesday night, killing at least 69 and injuring hundreds. The quake caused landslides, building collapses, and power outages in a region still recovering from recent storms.
5,500: The UN has approved expanding its Haiti security mission into a 5,500-strong force to combat rampant gang violence. Backed by the US and Panama, the decision will add to the current 1,000 officers, mostly from Kenya, already deployed to support Haitian police.
$156 billion: Russia’s military budget next year is set to be $156 billion, down from the $163 billion this year, marking the first drop since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Still, the military budget remains high – it’s nearly four times larger than in 2021. To help fund the war effort, the government is also set to increase the value-added tax from 20% to 22%.
15: South African opposition leader Julius Malema – who heads the far-left, black nationalist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – was found guilty of publicly discharging a firearm, an offense that carries a maximum sentence of 15 years. Malema fired 14 to 15 rounds in front of 20,000 supporters during an EFF celebration in the Eastern Cape in 2018.