Podcast: Is the US at war with Iran?

TRANSCRIPT: Is the US at war with Iran?

Fran Townsend:

The retaliatory missile attack into the base in Iraq was a shot across the bow. I don't think we should think this is the end, this is the end of the beginning.

Ian Bremmer:

Hello and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast, where you'll find extended versions of the interviews from my show on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and today is all about the grand chess match unfolding with Iran. Everywhere in the Middle East, as well as Moscow and Washington has a stake. And everything from oil prices to regional security is up for grabs. To help me dig into it, we have Fran Townsend, she's former US Homeland Security Advisor to President George W. Bush. Let's get to it.

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Ian Bremmer:

Fran Townsend, great to be with you.

Fran Townsend:

Yeah, it's great to be here.

Ian Bremmer:

So war with Iran, how's it going?

Fran Townsend:

Well, the good news is we're not at war with Iran. That was not clear right after Soleimani was killed. I think now we're in a position to say we're living through a deescalation, but I think we need to understand, Ian, as you know well, this was, I think, the first round. And I think we ought to understand that this is the first round with the Iranians. The retaliatory missile attack into the base in Iraq was a shot across the bow. I don't think we should think this is the end, this is the end of the beginning. But that's all that is. I think we ought to expect cyber attacks and conflagration back and forth. I think we ought to expect potential naval attacks and certainly proxy attacks against civilian targets. I think of things like the La Belle discothèque bombing in Germany that Gaddafi did, knowing where military members are off base and far less protected. The Buenos Aires Jewish Center attack against a civilian target. Those are the kinds of things that the Iranians are known for across decades, and that's not going to stop.

Ian Bremmer:

There's so many different angles to go into. I want to start with the abilities of Iran. Qasem Soleimani is gone. How much does that concretely matter to Iran's capacity to project force across the region?

Fran Townsend:

So I think it breaks down in two different ways. So first, they have real military capability. We saw that demonstrated in most recently in their attack on Saudi Aramco. That was very sophisticated, both in their execution and then in the effect of it. I mean, they really knew what they were doing. It was quite precise. They intentionally had no fatalities. It was quite effective in terms of its targeting of various points in the refining process. And they pulled it off and were not deterred or prevented from doing it.

Ian Bremmer:

The US did virtually nothing to respond. Yes.

Fran Townsend:

Correct. So they're very capable. We also know they're very capable in the cyber realm, and so they've got great capability. On the other hand, in terms of leadership and the individual, Soleimani is irreplaceable. His relationship with the Ayatollah, the supreme leader. His leadership style, his relationships with the proxies and his relationships with governments throughout the region, he as an individual is irreplaceable. I mean, I thought it was quite stunning, the New York Times reported, Gina Haspel, the director of the CIA said, he was a greater threat than the potential Iranian response, in her briefing to the president. And I think that says a lot. I would agree with that, but that says a tremendous amount when you acknowledge that the Iranians have huge military capability to say that the individual-

Ian Bremmer:

Matters that much.

Fran Townsend:

Matters that much.

Ian Bremmer:

But if you were in that room and you could have advised to Mr. President, here's what I think you should do. And you've been in that situation with several administrations, democrat and Republican, by the way also, the Clinton administration. You would've said, yes, I think you should pull the trigger on this drum.

Fran Townsend:

Yeah. I think I would've. I would've advised and the execution would've been different because I don't think taking credit is a smart thing. But Soleimani has killed, we hear a lot of people say what an awful bloody terrorist he is. And that is true. He's responsible for many American deaths and the deaths of many others in the region. Not to mention, remember these electronically formed projectiles that blew up our armored HMMWVs during the Iraq war. He's maimed thousands of American soldiers who are still alive and living with these injuries and their families are taking care of them. And so listen, he was a worthy target, and we've used predator drones to take this sort of lethal action against others who have killed and maimed fewer.

Ian Bremmer:

So now that we've gotten through this, and you said that the Iranians are not likely to respond additionally or take additional measures immediately, so we have a little bit of time, we can actually do some thinking. What would you have the Americans do to help put us on a better path so that we don't walk ourselves up to the precipice a second time?

Fran Townsend:

So every indication seems that the President doesn't fully appreciate the need and the benefit of having your allies with you. Everything we know at least so far is that he didn't warn our allies before the strike. He didn't really try to generate support from our allies any more than he tried to get support from our allies when he withdrew from the JPCOA.

Ian Bremmer:

Or when he met with Kim Jong Un the first time. Sure.

Fran Townsend:

I mean, plenty of examples, right?

Ian Bremmer:

Yes.

Fran Townsend:

But here, it's really important because I think, if I were the Iranians, I mean, look, given what my job was. My job was to try and think like them so I could then go back and put defensive measures in place. I think it's unlikely if they're to act asymmetrically that they'll do it in Europe. Why? Because the Europeans are not with the Americans now.

Ian Bremmer:

They've been trying to help them.

Fran Townsend:

They've been trying to help them.

Ian Bremmer:

Get back into the Iran nuclear deal.

Fran Townsend:

That's right. And so if you're going to launch an asymmetric attack against civilians, don't do it in Europe and piss off the Europeans and force them to be with the Americans. And so I think it's more likely they'll do it someplace else, someplace where we're not expecting it and we're less prepared. Someplace like South America, Latin America, Africa, someplace where we're not looking. I do think that we have to look at protecting not only American bases and diplomatic installations, but that next ring around and outside where our diplomats and soldiers go to relax and when they're going off base, because those soft targets are the most difficult to protect. And once we get a little bit of distance, what we know is people will begin to let down their guard. I do think in order to protect those soft targets in places we don't control, you need your allies and you need your allies to work with you and the intelligence services.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, the Iranians inadvertently shot down a civilian airliner in Iranian airspace, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, demanding access, an investigation.

Justin Trudeau:

This new information reinforces the need for a thorough investigation.

Ian Bremmer:

A lot of Iranians on that plane, they're not with us today. There's been a lot of demonstrations inside Iran over the past year. They've been suppressed. They haven't led to much. Do you think the Trump administration should be trying to play with domestic politics inside Iran? Is that fair game for the American president? Is it intelligent game?

Fran Townsend:

Well, I think the answers are different to those two questions. Is it fair game? Sure, it is. I mean, that that's part of kind of the disinformation, the propaganda game. Our enemies, our adversaries play the game, and it is fair game. I don't know that I think it's a smart game because we're not very good at it, frankly. If I was advising the White House, I would be saying to them, you've got the intelligence, you've made it what you know in terms of the intelligence and the signals, imagery, intelligence, put it out there. Let them have to deal with the facts. Let them say that the facts are mere propaganda, but let them deal with it. Let the Canadians who have a stake in this deal with the Iranians. But I wouldn't do more than that. There's something almost unseemly for me, and that's a personal view to do more than that and taking advantage of the tragedy.

Ian Bremmer:

Let's move a little bit to neighboring Iraq. So much going on with that right now. I first have to just ask you from an operational perspective, when you saw that draft letter, as they called it, from the Pentagon, saying, we're pulling troops out, respecting Iraqi sovereignty. Draft letter, including on letterhead, an Arabic translation, separate letter. How could this have happened? Help me out, Fran.

Fran Townsend:

I'm mystified. I can't help you here. I will tell you, I mean, it's the sort of thing, you knew it was a non-binding vote by the Iraqi parliament. And somebody had to say, well, thank God for that, right? That at least gives us time to try and work with the Iraqi administration. I cannot imagine. But it was part and parcel of the immediate post killing of Soleimani kind of press game. Was it self-defense or was it under the AUMF? Between the Pentagon and the State Department, they weren't saying anything.

Ian Bremmer:

The authorization for the use of military force that the Congress had given, but does not provide powers for the president to attack anything yet.

Fran Townsend:

Right. So I mean, between Secretary Pompeo and the Pentagon, they were giving different justifications for the Soleimani attack, and then this happened. Typically, when you go into this sort of an operation, I mean, this is the most significant sort of military operation against Iran in the last 30 years. You would think that you would have a post-operation plan, a next phase plan about how you were going to roll out what happened, how you were going to deal with the press, how you were going to deal with Congress, the notifications. I mean, normally there's a whole plan related to this, and clearly there wasn't. And as a result of that, these sorts of mistakes happened. It's just incredible to me, the Pentagon of all the agencies, the Pentagon is usually more tightly wrapped than that. This was really extraordinary.

Ian Bremmer:

And I don't want you to think about this, just answer immediately. Yes or no, within 12 months, are American troops still in Iraq?

Fran Townsend:

Yes, they're still in Iraq.

Ian Bremmer:

And they're still in Iraq because...

Fran Townsend:

Well, I think that there'll be a compromise with the Iraqi administration. I think the Iraqis are going to understand it's not in their interest for there to be a complete withdrawal of American troops. It's not in their security interest, right? And so while I think there may be a drawdown in numbers, I don't think you'll see a complete withdrawal of American troops.

Ian Bremmer:

Despite the strong demonstrations that you've had, the vote overwhelmingly from the Shia in the Iraqi parliament and the statement made by the caretaker prime minister. You think they'll back away from that?

Fran Townsend:

I think what you need, look, one would hope, frankly, in this instance, that the attention span of the Iraqi parliament and the Iraqi people is not unlike the American people. We tend to move on, right? As mad as we get about something, it tends to happen that daily events push us beyond sort of the immediate anger.

Ian Bremmer:

Is Iran's top interest in all of their responses to Soleimani being killed, to get the Americans out of Iraq?

Fran Townsend:

Absolutely.

Ian Bremmer:

Should we keep the troops there? Do we want to keep the troops there? I mean, Trump, a few months ago, it looked like he wanted to pull the troops out of the whole region. He says it a lot. Now, of course, that the Iranians say they want us out, now we want to stay in, but what should our perspective be?

Fran Townsend:

I would've hoped, personally, that by now we would have had enough confidence in our Iraqi partner to be able to get further along in terms of a drawdown. I don't have that confidence. Part of that is not a reflection on the Iraqis. It was a reflection on the rise of ISIS, and they really did need us in terms of the fight against ISIS. That was a success, but given that success, I don't think now is the time to do a complete withdrawal. And so I think there will be a time, but look, we've kept troops in Europe and troops in the DMZ in Korea, for decades. And so I don't think we should feel some sort of shame about having a continued presence there. We have a national security interest in making sure that ISIS doesn't come back, Al-Qaeda doesn't come back, given 9/11. And so I think we have real national security interests in seeing the continued sort of safety, security, and stability in the region.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, I guess I have to ask, you joined the Bush administration shortly after the invasion of Iraq. Looking back on all of what we've experienced there, what lessons do you learn?

Fran Townsend:

One of the things that I see across multiple administrations, when we go into these engagements, whether it's Iraq, it's Libya, what we do, we go in, our military is the greatest military in the world, and we know how to do military engagements. What we don't know how to do very well is what the military calls phase four operations. We can get it 90% of the way down the field and then handing it over to a capable, competent new government is where we fall apart. Look what happened in Libya and where they are now. The Obama administration successfully went into this military engagement with NATO, and now we still don't have a stable government in Libya. The Bush administration suffered the same thing in Iraq, and we still have issues with the Iraq government. And so I don't think it's particular to a one administration or one party. We just have to accept we don't do this very well, and we need to learn the lessons of that and have ourselves build the capability and have the planning for it before we go in.

Ian Bremmer:

I wonder also, when you talk about the drawdown that you expect of US troops in Iraq, we've also seen a small drawdown of US troops in Syria, our ability to continue to fight terrorism on the ground, which is the principle stated mission of these troops right now, how much are you concerned about that?

Fran Townsend:

Well, I'm tremendously concerned because you can draw down an American presence if you can rely on your local partner, namely the Kurds. And given what we allowed to happen in terms of the Turks coming in and slaughtering the Kurds, I worry tremendously about the counterterrorism mission in Syria. Between our draw-down and our walking away from the Kurds, I think that we are very vulnerable to the reestablishment, the re-rise of ISIS and Al-Qaeda forces there.

Ian Bremmer:

And when Trump says, Hey, I mean, if there's reestablishment, it's a problem in the region, it's a problem for the Europeans, it's lesser problem for the United States. You don't buy that?

Fran Townsend:

Well, I would remind him that it's about a six-hour flight from Western Europe into the United States.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, another tough question. 2016, you were one of 122 foreign policy and national security, high level officials, former officials, that wrote a letter saying that you opposed President Trump as president. He was not fit to be president, as a Republican administration official. Three, four years later, how are you feeling about that?

Fran Townsend:

Look, I wrote that letter because that was my belief, it was during the Republican primary. It's funny you should ask me about it. Nobody's asked me in a very long time.

Ian Bremmer:

Elections are coming up. So they'll start asking again.

Fran Townsend:

I used it as a teaching moment with my kids, and I said to them, I actually was a career public servant, so it's worth understanding. I went into the Bush administration in the White House, I was a career person. I've never been a political person, and I was asked what my view was during the Republican primary, having never been involved in politics. I took a position because that was my honest belief, and I said what I thought. When he became the nominee, I went quiet because I don't do politics, but I don't regret having said given my point of view.

Ian Bremmer:

So 2020, if another letter circulates, you signing it?

Fran Townsend:

We'll see the nominee is. We'll see. I assume that the president is going to be the Republican nominee.

Ian Bremmer:

I'm assuming that.

Fran Townsend:

And I'd like to see who the Democratic nominee is and what I think.

Ian Bremmer:

That's fair enough. Fran Townsend, thank you very much.

Fran Townsend:

Thanks for having me.

Ian Bremmer:

That's it for the podcast this week. We'll be back in your feed next week. Check out full episodes of GZERO World on public television or at gzeromedia.com.

Announcer:

The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, places clients' needs first, by providing responsive, relevant, and customized solutions. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more.