Ian Bremmer discusses the Thucydides Trap, and the history lesson Harvard professor Graham Allison brought to Trump's National Security Council in 2017: a wake-up call for American and Chinese leaders. Conflict between rival great state powers is likely - but with statecraft, war is not inevitable.

But ... White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon saw Chinese leadership as America's greatest existential danger. As a result, he pressed a harder line with China on tariffs, AI, IP, and Hong Kong protests. If confrontation with China is inevitable, is it better to make a move early? Another question: can the Trump administration contain China without cultivating allies?

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US President Donald Trump listens to a question from a reporter prior to signing an executive order on AI next to Sriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, US Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and David Sacks, chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on December 11, 2025.

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