Ian Bremmer discusses the Thucydides Trap, and the history lesson Harvard professor Graham Allison brought to Trump's National Security Council in 2017: a wake-up call for American and Chinese leaders. Conflict between rival great state powers is likely - but with statecraft, war is not inevitable.

But ... White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon saw Chinese leadership as America's greatest existential danger. As a result, he pressed a harder line with China on tariffs, AI, IP, and Hong Kong protests. If confrontation with China is inevitable, is it better to make a move early? Another question: can the Trump administration contain China without cultivating allies?

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The day before the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, more than 150 accounts on Polymarket correctly bet it would happen on that specific date.

Last week, Microsoft announced Microsoft Elevate for Changemakers, a new initiative designed to help nonprofit leaders confidently navigate the AI era. The program provides essential AI credentials, access to a peer community, and role-based resources to support responsible, mission-driven AI adoption. Part of Microsoft’s broader Elevate commitment, the initiative builds on the company’s 50-year legacy of supporting nonprofits worldwide. Microsoft partners with nearly one million nonprofit and education organizations globally and will deliver more than $5 billion in discounts, donations, and grants in the coming year. By equipping those closest to social challenges with the tools to lead, Microsoft Elevate for Changemakers helps ensure nonprofits remain at the forefront of AI-powered solutions. Read the full blog here.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office, as U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum look on, on the day he signs an executive order, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 23, 2025.
REUTERS/Kent Nishimura

The US president has now suggested several times that the Iran war could end without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.