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The logo of Huawei's global flagship store is displayed in the Huangpu district of Shanghai, China.
The US government under President Joe Biden has imposed significant export controls not only on US-made chips but also on semiconductor manufacturing equipment necessary for Huawei to mass produce its own chip designs. US rules have largely cut Huawei off from the most powerful machines made by Dutch lithography company ASML, which essentially makes stencils to imprint miniature designs on chips for mass manufacturing, and TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker. (The US Commerce Department is investigating how Huawei chips recently ended up on TSMC assembly lines.) Instead, Huawei relies on the Chinese chip manufacturer SMIC, which uses less powerful models of ASML machines.
But despite Huawei’s ambitions, Reuters reports that the company has been struggling with these restrictions to make effective chips at scale. For the Ascend 910C, the yield rate — the percentage that comes off manufacturing lines fully functional — is reportedly only 20%, while experts say a 70% yield rate is needed to be commercially viable. China’s top chip designer will need to make a breakthrough with limited resources to make good on its public promises to compete with Nvidia.
Putin has been warning them not to do that. They decided they were going to, the Russian response has been to formally change their nuclear doctrine so that they would be considered to be in a state of war legally against any country that allowed Ukraine to use their missiles against Russia. In other words, essentially, Russia is claiming that they're now at war with France, with the UK, with the United States. And also, the Russians used a medium range missile hypersonic nuclear capable directly against the Ukrainian target in Dnipro.
In other words, what we're seeing from Putin is, "I'm showing you what you're doing is moving towards World War III, and that's how I'm responding." Does that mean that Putin is actually escalating towards direct war with NATO allies? The answer to that is no. He wasn't doing that when he was losing the battle in Ukraine in the early months. He's certainly not doing it now that he's winning.
And he is winning. He has more troops on the front lines, including those from North Korea, those from Yemen, those that he's getting from other countries. Also, he's taking more territory on the ground in Ukraine at a faster pace now, more significant amounts of territory in Southeast Ukraine than at any point since the opening months of the war. Plus Trump is President-elect. Trump has said, "I want to end this war." And he is coming in just in a couple of months.
So what Putin is doing is not threatening World War III. He's instead showing off just how bad this Biden policy is, this existing NATO policy is. He's making it easier for Trump to pivot away and say, "I'm the peacemaker. We were heading towards World War III, this horrible escalation. I'm the guy that got the great deal done and look how brilliant I am." Putin is facilitating that.
Now, of course, to make that happen Trump still has to give Putin something that he wants. He has to give an outcome that is acceptable to Putin. And Putin's made clear, at least thus far, that he's not going to give up any territory that he has. That he's not prepared to accept that Ukraine would be able to join NATO. He's also said that Ukraine can't continue to have a functional armed forces which is something that would be completely unacceptable to Ukraine.
The devil's going to be in the details here. There clearly is an opportunity for Trump to end the war. He's promised he's going to end the war, and I think he can. I think he can create a ceasefire. The Ukrainian leadership has already made clear that they are supportive of ending the war, but they're not just going to listen. There has to be a back and forth conversation with the Americans. Seeing what it is that Trump is prepared to put forward, and whether or not the Russians are capable of accepting it, are willing to accept it. Even though it will look like a win for Russia compared to where they would've been under Biden, under Harris, or at any other point in the last couple of years.
Still, if you are Putin, there is an open question. You're taking land right now. The Ukrainians don't have the people to continue to put up a strong defense. Why wouldn't you delay this out for another three, another six months? Take more land. Try to get all the territory that you have formally annexed over the course of the war. Why not settle the war on your terms? A lot easier to do if you're winning than losing. And the question there will be to what extent Trump is willing to cause material punishment to Putin if he doesn't say yes.
And that's an open question. Trump historically has been willing to take easy wins that don't necessarily play well over the long term. Look at Afghanistan. He wanted to get the Americans out. He cut a deal with the Taliban. It was a deal that was clearly very advantageous from a military and from a governance perspective for the Taliban than it was for the United States. He cut that despite the fact that the allies were not supportive or coordinating. That undermined the US deeply. Biden then continued with that plan. And it was one of the biggest losses that the US has experienced over the last four years.
Now, that of course, was a loss that ultimately fell on Biden. This would be a loss that would ultimately fall on Trump. And so does he want to risk that? That's a very interesting question. And of course, you also have to look at Trump's staff because he can make a phone call with Zelensky and with Putin, but ultimately, it is the secretary of state, the national security advisor and others that are going to have to work out the details of that agreement. And those people, at least thus far, are not people that are oriented towards giving away the store to Putin. They're people-oriented towards mistrust of Putin, towards a hard line against the Russians, towards support of Ukraine.
I am thinking here that number one, there's a reasonably high chance that Trump can get the win that he wants, but number two, this isn't likely to be a walk in the park for the Russian president. The Europeans need to play here as well. And what will be important, there's been a few formulated conversations thus far between President-elect Trump and some of the European leaders.
They haven't gone very far, but they've also not blown up the bilateral relationships. Their ability to work with Trump advisors on Trump, and on a greater coordination of what an ultimate solution or settlement of the Russian-Ukraine war would be, will make a dramatic difference as to what extent this is sustainable. To what extent this leads to not only Ukraine that can continue to defend itself and the territory that it is left with, but also can integrate into Europe, can be politically successful as a democracy over time. And that NATO will stay strong and stay together and stay aligned with the United States because they don't have another choice. There is no autonomous European military capacity. It's either NATO sticks together or it fragments.
Those are all things that we're going to watch very carefully over the course of the next couple months. But for now, an escalatory period. And it's all performative and it's all oriented towards what happens when Trump becomes president. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives to address the media ahead of the commencement of the Winter Session of Parliament, in New Delhi, on Monday, Nov. 25.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party scored a big political win over the weekend. After losing its parliamentary majority in national elections in June, the BJP posted a landslide victory in a state election inMaharashtra, India’s wealthiest state and home to Mumbai, the country’s financial capital. The BJP ran in this election as the head of an alliance that includes two smaller parties.
This victory in India’s second most populous state, combined with a victory last month in the northern state of Haryana, will reduce the reliance of Modi’s BJP on unpredictable allies to move legislation forward at the national level.
Modi also notched a political victory by holding peaceful elections in the violence-plagued territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Though his party didn’t win there, the elections themselves helped to legitimize Modi’s 2019 controversial decision to downgrade the troubled province’s status from state to “union territory,” a move that revoked its previous autonomy and allowed for it to be ruled directly from Delhi.
How did Modi’s BJP-led alliance win big in a year that has seen incumbent parties take political losses in South Africa, France, the UK, Japan, the US, and India itself? In part, the win was secured with cash payments and increased subsidies from the government, politically motivated decisions that will threaten the longer-term fiscal health of these states.
Skykline of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on November 21, 2022 .
Israeli authorities condemned the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, an Israeli-Moldovan 28-year-old whose body was discovered Sunday in the United Arab Emirates, as an“antisemitic terrorist attack.” They are investigating potential Iranian involvement, including Uzbek nationals with suspected links to Iran. In response, the Iranian embassy in the UAE said it “categorically rejects the allegations of Iran’s involvement in the murder of this individual.”
The UAE has arrested three suspects but has provided no further details. Should a link to Iran be established, it would likely renew calls for retaliation by Israel, and possibly set off a new cycle of escalation.
Meanwhile, Israeli military operations continue in both Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered the evacuation of a suburb of Gaza City on Sunday after Hamas militants fired rockets at Israel,prompting a new wave of displacements in the enclave. Hamasclaimed late Sunday that a female Israeli hostage had been killed in Israeli operations in northern Gaza, but Israel said it was unable to verify the information.
In Lebanon, an Israeli airstrike targeted an army center, resulting in the death of one soldier and injuries to 18 others. Hezbollah retaliated on Sunday by launching 340 drones and rockets into Israel andclaimed to have also destroyed a total of 11 Israeli tanks in a series of ground battles. Talks over a potential cease-fire with Hezbollah have thus far been fruitless, but the Israeli ambassador to the US said a deal could be reached “within days” on Monday.
As Trump prepares to return to the White House, his foreign policy picks are already showing just how radically his presidency could reshape geopolitics. New York Times Correspondent David Sanger joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss just what a Trump 2.0 foreign policy could look like for some of the key geopolitical flashpoints today. From the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to the increasingly strained US-China relationship, the only thing we can say for sure is that the Trump sequel will look far different from the original.
And that uncertainty, Sanger tells Bremmer, is why Trump won the election. "If you voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 election, it was probably with a thought that these institutions need to be blown up." One of the biggest questions, however, is just how Trump will approach the Ukraine war, and if he'll follow through on his campaign pledge to end the conflict in "24 hours." "Trump would love to come in as the man who ended the Ukraine war" Sanger says, "But the only way I can imagine in my limited way for how you do that in 24 hours is you have a call of Vladimir Putin and you say, Vlad, what do you need?"
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Hard Numbers: North Koreans killed in Russia, Ireland approaches crucial vote, Pakistan locks down over Khan, Bitcoin to the moon!
FILE PHOTO: In the photos taken on January 31, 2024, Ukrainian soldiers are deployed in the middle of the conflict with Russia. Ukrainian Intelligence has stated that Russian forces "have already made use" of some missiles delivered to the country by North Korea as part of the invasion and has stressed that there is "cooperation between the two regimes" at a military and weapons.
500: Ukrainian media reported Sunday that a strike on North Korean forces operating in the Kursk region of Russia killed at least 500 troops, though Pyongyang has not (and probably won’t) confirm the figures. If true, it would be the first major casualty incident for the Korean People’s Army while fighting Ukraine, and the sheer number of deaths at once may be difficult for Pyongyang to explain at home.
20: The left-leaning Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein is polling at 20% ahead of elections on the Emerald Isle on Friday, neck-and-neck with the ruling Fine Gael party at 22%. Sinn Fein looks likely to be able to block Fine Gael and its coalition partner from forming a majority government, but it would need to majorly outperform polling to take charge of the government itself as other parties have sworn not to cooperate.
150: Pakistan’s government on Sunday blocked expressways leading into the capital, Islamabad, shut down cell phone and internet service, and placed shipping containers across major thoroughfares amid mass protests calling for the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The ex-cricket-star-turned-politician is facing 150 criminal charges (all of which he denies) and has been serving a three-year prison sentence since last year.
100,000: The cryptocurrency known as Bitcoin reached a value of $100,000 per token on Friday, a record high fueled by the expectation of a friendlier environment for crypto under the incoming Trump administration. Ten years ago, it was trading for about $350.Protesters gather at the venue of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, dubbed COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Nov. 16, 2024, calling for developed countries to take responsibility for the greenhouse gasses they have emitted.
Aftermarathon sessions and deep divisions, COP29 concluded in Baku, Azerbaijan, with a commitment of $300 billion in annual assistance by 2035 to help poorer nations cope with climate change. That’s up from today’s pledges of $100 billion a year. Twenty-three contributors will kick in the funds, including the UK, US, Japan, and countries in the EU. Recipients include countries in Africa and South America, as well as a host of small island states.
While some delegates applauded the deal, many developing nations branded it a “betrayal.” Indian delegate Chandni Raina called it “an optical illusion.” “This will not address the enormity of the challenge,” she said. Meanwhile, low-lying nations like the Marshall Islands acknowledged that the deal is a “start” but ultimately insufficient.
While the agreement also lays groundwork for next year’s COP30 in Brazil, big questions remain. Will wealthy nations deliver on their pledges? How will the funds be divided? What can developing nations do if it isn’t enough?
The urgency is real. 2024 is expected to be the hottest year ever (the second record year in a row), with global emissions still rising. The world is currently on track for temperature increases of up to 3.1 C (5.6 F) by the end of the century, according to the 2024 UN Emissions Gap report.