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President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands as they attend a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, DC, on Feb. 13, 2025.
As promised, US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on all American trading partners Thursday afternoon. Each country will be assessed individually, factoring in value-added taxes, foreign tariff rates, industry subsidies, regulations, and currency undervaluation to determine customized duty rates. Trump claimed, “It’s gonna make our country a fortune.”
The tariff review will be completed within weeks or months and could kick-start bilateral negotiations with other countries. Trump took the occasion to reiterate that Canada should become a 51st state, chastising it for not meeting NATO spending thresholds and repeating his false claim that the US “subsidizes” Canada to the tune of $200 billion a year.
Then there’s India. Trump’s proclamation came ahead of his meeting with “total killer” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House. Modi reportedly arrived bearing a “gift”: tariff reductions on India’s imports of US electronics, medical equipment, and chemicals, as well as commitments to purchase American liquefied natural gas and defense equipment.
What else does Trump want from Delhi? Trump wants to reduce the US trade deficit with India, $45.6 billion in 2024. The average US tariff rate on Indian imports is currently 2.2%, while India’s is 12% on US goods. Trump also wants India to reduce the emigration of its citizens to the US – both H-1B visa-holders working in the tech industry and undocumented migrants. India is the third largest source of undocumented immigrants in the US.
On Thursday, Trump said he would match India’s tariffs. “We are being reciprocal with India … Whatever India charges, we charge them.”
Both men agreed on Thursday to begin talks on an early trade deal to resolve the tariff standoff. Modi said he would buy more US oil, gas, and military equipment while fighting illegal immigration, and Trump said the US would ultimately sell F-35 stealth fighters to India.
A volunteer florist adds baby's breath flowers to a Valentine’s Day rose bouquet on Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025.
200: Disruptive weather patterns fueled by climate change have inflicted major crop damage in West Africa, where most of the world’s cacao, the raw form of the bean that is processed into cocoa, is grown. The price of raw cocoa, chocolate’s key ingredient, has surged by 200% over the past year. Roses won’t be cheap either. Is there a “bah humbug” equivalent for Valentine’s Day?
400 million: The US State Department’s procurement forecast for 2025, which details purchases the agency expects to make, included $400 million for armored Tesla vehicles. Tesla is owned by someone called Elon Musk. On Wednesday, as this story started to make headlines, the document was updated, changing “Armored Tesla” to “Armored Electric Vehicles,” but the contract value remains the same.
94.5: Despite President Xi Jinping’s pledge that China’s carbon emissions would peak by 2030, the country’s coal plant construction climbed by 94.5 gigawatts in 2024, its highest level since 2015.
457: Liberian President Joseph Boakai has suspended 457 top government officials, including ministers, for failing to declare their assets to the country’s anti-corruption agency. The workers will be out for a month, unpaid, or until they provide the required declarations.
4,000: In Colombia, a bill aims to prohibit sales of merchandise glorifying Pablo Escobar, the notorious drug lord who has been linked to more than 4,000 murders. Vendors are not happy with the proposed law, insisting that Escobar merch sells well and helps support their families.
200,000: The Trump White House on Thursday instructed federal agency leaders to terminate the bulk of their probationary staff. This reportedly could impact as many as 200,000 employees who have worked for the federal government for less than a year. Some staffers in public safety and law enforcement roles are expected to be spared, so it’s unclear how many will be impacted.
59-10: An exclusive GZERO and Echelon poll found deep partisan divides over DOGE’s plans to shrink the US government. The poll found that 59% of Republicans believed cutting 300,000 federal jobs would increase government efficiency, compared to just 10% of Democrats. When it came to its efforts to dismantle USAID, 60% of Republicans support completely overhauling or eliminating the agency, compared to only 12% of Democrats.
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take from Munich, Germany, where the Munich Security Conference is just about to kick off. And it is going to be a historic meeting, and not necessarily in a good way.
Everyone I've been speaking to here, deeply concerned about the sudden conversation, 90-minute conversation, with a full readout from, both the Kremlin and from the United States, between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Not so much concerned that a conversation took place, rather that it happened, and Trump is engaging unilaterally without coordinating in advance with the Ukrainians or the Europeans. And in that regard, very, very different than what we've seen over the first three years of the war.
Look, there's no question, everyone does want to see the war wind down. Everyone would love to see a ceasefire. The question is, how and what does the NATO alliance look like after that? What does Europe look like in terms of its engagement, its trust with the United States, the transatlantic relationship? And, of course, what happens with Ukraine? The statements that have been made by Trump and by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth are things that we've heard a lot about privately, not just from the Trump administration, from the Europeans, from the Biden administration too, the idea that NATO membership is not in the cards, long-term, if there's going to be some sort of formal peace agreement, that Ukraine is going to have to give up some kind of territory, not that they should, not that that's reasonable, not they don't have territorial integrity, but there's no way for them to get back all the territory that they had back in 2014. Those are things that have now been said publicly by the Americans. But they are being said both unilaterally and also in advance of any negotiation. In other words, concessions are being made to the Russians before both sides sit down. And that is, of course, a very significant concern, for the Europeans and the Ukrainians.
There is also a question what kind of security guarantees would be provided to Ukraine? According to the United States, certainly will not involve Americans on the ground. No troops. Would be European troops. They're the ones that have to do the bulk of the lifting. They're the ones that have to ensure that there was a response if Ukraine were attacked again, after a ceasefire. Now, it's not that the Americans are suddenly washing their hands of all of this. In fact, the first cabinet official to go to Kiev from the Trump administration, just met with Zelensky in the last 24-hours; that’s Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent. Why Treasury? Because Trump is trying to get something for giving something. It's transactional, as he always is. And in this case, focusing on critical minerals from Ukraine. Nominally, the number is some $500 billion of what would be Ukrainian resources to the United States in return for ongoing, US military support for Ukraine.
Outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, “This is selfish, the Americans shouldn't be doing this.” The Ukrainian president, who actually has to work with the Americans going forward, unlike Scholz, saying, “What a great offer. Happy to talk to you. Want to find a way to make this work?” So, on the one hand, it's not as if the United States is leaving Ukraine high and dry. And certainly, a level of engagement between the Americans and the Russians is very important. It’s essential going forward. But of course, what Putin wants is a deal not only to his favor, but not just about Ukraine. He wants to be talking just to the Americans, and he wants to be talking to them about missile defense, about NATO enlargement, about a whole range of issues that he has, that he takes issue with. And that's something that Trump is perfectly interested in.
At the end of the day, Trump is a lot more interested in cutting a deal for himself that allows the Americans to focus a lot more on China and on Asia, from a security perspective, than working with the Europeans to try to do something collectively on Ukraine. And this is the biggest challenge and also the biggest difference between Trump and Biden, in terms of foreign policy. Biden fundamentally believe that a strong Europe, coordinated with the United States, was long-term in American interests. President Trump does not. He believes that a strong Europe is a bad thing. He wants to see more exits, like Brexit, from other countries. He supports Euro-skeptic movements across Europe. He would much rather have individual negotiations with individual European countries where the Americans are stronger.
What does that mean for the Munich Security Conference? What does it mean for NATO? What does it mean for the transatlantic relationship? Long-term, nothing good. Final point here, the Europeans are taking this seriously, but it's late. They've been told, by Americans for several administrations now, they need to be spending more time and more money on their own defense, their own collective security. Macron has talked about it a fair amount in France. The Polish government is certainly taking the lead on that, especially after the Russians invade Ukraine. But most European governments aren't taking it nearly as seriously and aren't prepared to spend the money. And that reality, for decades now, made much more stark and severe with the Russian invasion in 2014 of Ukraine, which the Europeans did virtually nothing about, and now, when 2022, you've got Trump coming in and saying, “I'm not going to do this,” that's forcing the Europeans in a much more stark way, but also much too late for them to get their act together, in my view.
So, we'll see what we see over the next couple of days, but this is going to be a very, again, historic Munich Security Conference. Glad to be here, and we'll talk to you soon.
Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launcher takes part in the Victory Day military parade general rehearsal on the Red Square in Moscow, Russia, on May 5, 2024.
2,460,000,000,000: In 2024, global defense spending rose to a new height of $2.46 trillion, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank. Worth noting: The Kremlin outpaced all other European countries combined. Russia’s military expenditure equated $461.6 billion in purchase parity terms, eclipsing Europe’s $457 billion.
124: 2024 was the deadliest year for journalists on record since the Committee to Protect Journalists started tracking more than 30 years ago. At least 124 media workers were killed last year — nearly two-thirds of them in Gaza. The next deadliest nations were Sudan and Pakistan, with six deaths each.
20: At least 20 people, including children, were injured in Munich on Thursday when a driver plowed into a trade union demonstration. The driver was detained at the scene, and another man in the car, a Mini Cooper, was reportedly shot by police. The attack puts the German city on alert just a day before it's set to hold the 61st edition of the Munich Security Conference featuring world leaders. Some of those involved were critically injured, officials said.
200,000: A deeply unserious campaign for Denmark to purchase California from the United States gained significant traction online this week, following President Donald Trump’s repeated calls to purchase Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory. So far, more than 200,000 people have signed the virtual petition to “Måke Califørnia Great Ægain.”
14: Nearly 14 years after an earthquake and tsunami led to a triple meltdown at the Fukushima power plant, the Japanese government is considering an about-face on its plans to limit reliance on nuclear power. A draft strategic energy plan from the trade and industry ministry calls for a “maximization” of nuclear power to help reach its emissions and energy security targets. The plan calls for around 20% to stem from nuclear reactors by 2040, 40-50% from renewables, and 30-40% from coal (down from 70% at present).
An artistic rendering of an asteroid or comet striking near the Moon's south pole about 3.8 billion years ago, an impact that carved out two large craters.
Scientists recently discovered the giant space rock, called asteroid 2024 YR4, is set to reach our planet on Dec. 22, 2032. The asteroid, between 130 and 300 feet wide, is big enough to devastate a city or trigger a tsunami, to say nothing of what the impact or aftershocks could do if the extraterrestrial threat struck a nuclear plant or oil refinery.
The good news: NASA predicts the chances of impact are only about 2.3%, meaning a Christmas gift may come early if the odds remain at about 98% that YR4 zooms right past us. Given that the US National Transportation Safety Board once estimated that roughly 96% of passengers survived plane accidents (mishaps, not crashes), and air safety has largely improved since that 2001 study, those odds are pretty good. Statistics on the deadliness of asteroids are quite misleading.
But here’s another spin on it: As economist Tyler Cowen put it, the chance of drawing three of a kind in a standard five-card poker game is about 2.9% – so it’s hardly an unprecedented event.
Whatever the risk, the Chinese government isn’t taking any chances. China's State Administration of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense just posted a recruitment notice listing three available roles for a "planetary defense post.”
As fans of Chinese sci-fi writer Cixin Liu’s “Three Body Problem” may note, better an asteroid than a slow-moving armada of genocidal aliens.A boy holds a placard depicting U.S. President Donald Trump and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the "Howdy Modi" event in Houston, Texas in 2019. This week the two men will meet for the first time since Trump's re-election.
The leader of the world’s most populous – and fastest-growing – major economy is the fourth world leader to visit Trump since the inauguration. What’s on the agenda?
Trade: India runs a $35 billion trade surplus with the US, and “Tariff Man” Trump hates this. Delhi has already slashed duties on key US exports and pledged to buy more American oil and weapons. But India is still the most protectionist major economy in the world. Trump will press for more access.
Immigration: India is both the third-largest source of undocumented migrants in the US and the overwhelming beneficiary of high-skilled “H-1B” visas used by the tech industry. This puts Delhi squarely in the crosshairs of the MAGA immigration crackdown.
In December, H-1B visas provoked an intra-MAGA split between the movement’s tech bro wing (who like them) and the base (who don’t). Modi has offered to take back thousands of Indian deportees but will seek protections for the H-1B program.
Legal limbo. US regulators have accusedIndian construction magnate Gautam Adani of fraud, giving Trump – who could swiftly scrap the cases – a big bargaining chip.
The global game: Famously “non-aligned” India is in a way the world’s biggest swing state.It shares American concerns about China, but also enjoys warm ties with Russia. It backs Israel but also styles itself as a leading voice in the Global South, where support for Palestinian liberation is often strong.
Good rapport: Trump and Modi get along well, but Trump loves to drive a hard bargain, while Modi is the proud leader of a rising global power. Their meeting will tell us a lot about the dynamic between the world’s most populous democracy and its most powerful one.
Endorsed by steelworkers onstage, then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump puts on a hard hat during his Make America Great Again Rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 19, 2024.
US President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to the US. This raises the tariff rate on aluminum to 25% from the previous 10% that Trump imposed in 2018, and it reinstates a 25% tariff on “millions of tons” of steel and aluminum imports previously exempted or excluded.
“Today I’m simplifying our tariffs on steel and aluminum,” Trump stated. “It’s 25% without exceptions or exemptions.”
Cue the negotiations. On Monday, Trump reportedly took a call from Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who is seeking a carve-out for Australian steel exports. Albanese described their conversation as “constructive and warm” but did not want to “speak on [Trump’s] behalf.”
The EU said it would respond with “firm and proportionate countermeasures.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeausaid Tuesday that the tariffs were “entirely unjustified” and “unacceptable,” noting that Canada – the US’ biggest source of aluminum and one of its top sources of steel – would respond if necessary but will try to work with the US administration to avoid them. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has also threatened countermeasures in recent weeks, said her country would keep a “cool head.”
The new US tariffs are set to take effect on March 4, and Trump added that he will also consider additional tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, and computer chips.
Why now? Trump’s announcement came two days after the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who announced that Japan would increase its US investment to $1 trillion, including a commitment from Nippon Steel to “invest heavily” in US Steel, after a $15 billion buyout was nixed last year by the Biden administration. The deal is another reflection of Trump’s plan to strengthen domestic steel production and make imports less attractive – or even necessary.
Was there a connection? “It’s certainly possible,” says Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling. “But we knew steel tariffs were coming — it was only a matter of time. While Trump is proud to be Tariff Man, he could also be called the Man of Steel. Steel is his favorite industry.” We’re waiting to see whether Ishiba picks up the phone like Albanese and leverages Nippon’s investment to lift the levies.