The lead prosecutor in South Korea’s criminal investigation into last week’s brief declaration of martial law said Wednesday he would arrest President Yoon Suk Yeol if warranted. Also on Wednesday, police attempted to raid the Yongsan Presidential Office to secure evidence of Yoon’s actions and mindset before and during the martial law order but retreated after an hourslong standoff with presidential security.
Yoon survived an impeachment vote last weekend, but he faces another on Saturday. The opposition Democratic Party, which controls the National Assembly but falls eight votes short of the bar for impeachment, is promising to keep trying until Yoon steps down. Some members of Yoon’s own party have already promised to help oust him.
That said, as GZERO previously reported, the party leader is pressuring Yoon to step down and avoid impeachment altogether, though perhaps not immediately. If they can get Yoon to publicly agree now to resign in, say, February, that pushes elections even further away, creating space for maneuvering. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who is the likely presidential candidate, has his own legal problems that could bar him from standing for office — if courts have enough time to process his case, that is.
Can they really arrest the president? Ordinarily no. South Korea’s president enjoys immunity from prosecution — except in the case of insurrection charges. The case looks quite serious, and the former defense minister who allegedly encouraged the coup attempt tried to commit suicide following his arrest. He is now hospitalized, and the heads of the National Police Agency and Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency are also under arrest.
In such a confusing and unprecedented environment, with essentially three separate, concurrent tracks for removing Yoon, Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says the net effect is paralysis.
“The Democratic Party is playing hardball and eager to use all the tools at their disposal to make [Yoon’s People Power Party] pay a heavy price for not going along with impeachment,” he says.
We will have our eye on protests this weekend as widespread anger could snuff out attempts to get around the impeachment process if enough of the ruling party legislators are spooked by the outrage.
