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Australia & Pacific
Human rights activists hold a placard reading 'Military is a Killer of Women' during Aksi Kamisan, or Thursday's Protest, in front of the Merdeka Palace in Jakarta, Indonesia, on March 20, 2025.
Indonesian activists are protesting a new law allowing active-duty military members to serve an expanded role in the civilian government — a move they warn could bring back the days of military repression under strongman leader Suharto.
Indonesia’s current president, Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo, is a former general who served as minister of defense under former President Joko Widodo. He is accused of serious human rights abuses, including participation in massacres in East Timor and forced disappearances of pro-democracy activists.
In power since October, Prabowo has already worked to integrate the military deeper into governance. Amendments to the 2004 Law on the Indonesian Armed Forces, which parliament passed unanimously on Thursday, allow active duty military officers to hold positions in 14 different government institutions. Previously, they were only allowed to serve in institutions related to defense and national security, but now they’ll be able to serve in institutions like the attorney general’s office and the Supreme Court.
Prabowo’s election last year raised concerns about democratic backsliding in the country. But Indonesians have responded to the latest move: Hundreds went to the parliament building on Thursday to protest the new legislation and to demand that the military and civilian government remain separate.
Filipino activists hold candles during a protest vigil supporting former President Rodrigo Duterte's arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, March 11, 2025.
Philippine authorities on Tuesday arrested former President Rodrigo Duterte in Manila on an International Criminal Court warrant for alleged crimes against humanity linked to his deadly drug crackdown. He was reportedly put on a plane headed for The Hague within hours of being detained.
Duterte’s drug war started during his 22-year reign as the mayor of Davao and ramped up after he became president in 2016. An estimated 30,000 Filipinos were killed by police throughout that period, which led the ICC to start looking into the killings back in 2018. Shortly after the court’s probe got underway, Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC.
This has led to questions about the ICC’s jurisdiction. But Rutgers Law professor Adil Haque says “the court retains jurisdiction over crimes committed before the Philippines’ withdrawal in 2019.”
It is less clear, however, whether Philippine law allows him to be extradited to The Hague. And the former president still has lots of support back home, says International Crisis Group’s Georgi Englebrecht. “As of now, there are several rallies in cities in Mindanao — Davao, Cotabato, Iligan, Cagayan de Oro as well as online outcry about the decision. I think we can expect more rallies,” he said.
Will there be much political fallout? Experts do not believe serious upheaval is likely or that the arrest will have much impact on the midterm elections in May.
But one thing is clear: The massive rift between the country’s political dynasties, the Marcos and Duterte families, is alive and well.
Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown, seen here at the White House in Washington, in 2023.
The Cook Islands’ recent entry into a strategic partnership with China has spawned protests in front of Parliament, angered long-time ally New Zealand, and this week, nearly toppled the islands’ government.
On Wednesday, Cooks Prime Minister Mark Brown survived a 13-9 no-confidence vote. Opposition legislators were angry that Brown did the deal with Beijing in secret, jeopardizing the country’s long-standing relationship with Wellington, which New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peterssaid will now have to be “reset.” Brown’s partnership with China also follows an unsuccessful pitch last December to create a Cooks passport and citizenship, which also did not sit well with both Kiwis and islanders.
What is the Cooks’ connection with NZ? The Cooks became partially independent in 1965, but its 15,000 residents receive NZ citizenship and passports and use the NZ dollar. New Zealand has also committed over US$57 million in aid since 2022 and supports both foreign affairs and defense.
What did China offer? Beijing pledged a five-year “action plan,” including $4 million for education, the economy, infrastructure, fisheries, disaster management, and, most controversially, seabed mining for nodules rich in nickel and cobalt.
China’s larger agenda The Cooks are just the latest South Pacific nation to sign a deal with Beijing. Kiribati has signed a series of development agreements in recent years, even hosting Chinese police stations, as have the Solomon Islands. China has also persuaded both countries, as well as nearby Nauru, to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the mainland.Tensions between China and the West heat up amid military exercises
China's President Xi Jinping attends a meeting in Brazil in November 2024.
Just days after a Chinese naval helicopter nearly collided with a Philippine patrol plane over a contested reef, China’s military started live-fire drills in waterways near Vietnam on Monday and between Australia and New Zealand over the weekend in an “unprecedented” display of firepower.
Beijing’s democratic critics put up their own show of force. On Sunday, France held military exercises with the Philippines and vowed to deepen their defense ties. On Monday, Japan followed suit, forging a security pact with Manila.
France, which is looking to assert its status as a Pacific power through its overseas island territories across the region, is now negotiating an agreement with the Philippines to allow troops to train on each other’s land, similar to the deal Manila has with the US and Australia.
At a meeting in Manila on Monday, Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and his Philippine counterpart, Gilberto Teodoro, agreed to work together to counter “unilateral attempts by China and other countries to change the international order and the narrative.”
After Vietnam released new maps marking what Hanoi considers its maritime boundary with Beijing, China on Monday began four days of live-fire military exercises in the Gulf of Tonkin. Vietnam has yet to respond.
Last week, Australia and New Zealand accused China of failing to announce the live-fire component of its military drills in international waters in the Tasman Sea. The abrupt shift in protocol forced commercial airlines to reroute flights last Friday morning. On Sunday, China’s Defense Ministry denied what it called “unreasonable accusations” from Canberra and Wellington.
It’s just the latest tensions between Australia and its largest trading partner. Earlier this month, a Chinese J-16 fighter plane released flares that passed within 100 feet of an Australian P-8 Poseidon surveillance jet flying over the South China Sea.
Where does it all go? Beijing has been trying to seize on the Trump administration’s cuts to international aid and America-first foreign policy to tighten its grip over the Pacific. But China’s early success at promoting economic and diplomatic relations are overshadowed by its “beefs” with most of its neighbors over sovereignty and national security, said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.
“China can’t make friends with anybody,” Chan said. “If you zoom out and look at the South China Sea, China basically has a border dispute with almost every country in the Indo-Pacific. That puts a limit on Beijing’s ability to leverage Trump 2.0.”
China’s “dangerous” helicopter maneuver escalates tensions with US and Philippines
A Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy Harbin Z-9 helicopter sits on CNS Yulin during a display of warships ahead of an exhibition at Changi Naval Base in Singapore on May 18, 2015.
A Chinese naval helicopter flew nearly 10 feet from a Philippine patrol plane on Tuesday over a contested reef in the South China Sea, escalating tensions with Manila and Washington in the airspace over international waterways Beijing claims as its own.
The move, which the US condemned as a “dangerous maneuver,” comes months after a series of seaborne attacks in which Chinese coast guard vessels rammed Philippine ships.
Both Beijing and Manila claim the Scarborough Shoal – known in China as Huangyan Island and in the Philippines as Panatag Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc – located less than 150 miles off the west coast of the main Philippine island of Luzon. But China has controlled the waters around the unpopulated reef since 2012. In recent months, the Philippines and the US have sought to assert Manila’s sovereignty by flying air patrols over the shoal.
In a tense 30-minute standoff on Tuesday, a gray People’s Liberation Army naval Harbin Z-9 chopper hovered just over the wing of a Philippine C-208 light utility plane after Beijing said the Philippines “illegally invaded the airspace” over the shoal. Washington rebuked the move against its ally, whose 74-year mutual defense treaty both the Biden and Trump administrations have sought to reinforce over the past year.
“We condemn the dangerous maneuvers by a PLA Navy helicopter that endangered pilots and passengers on a Philippine air mission,” MaryKay Carlson, the US ambassador to Manila, wrote in a post on X. “We call on China to refrain from coercive actions and settle its disputes peacefully in accordance with international law.”
Flashback to a heated summer: Last June, Chinese coast guards wielding knives and axes rammed their ship into a Filipino vessel, injuring eight sailors and severing the thumb of one. The attack was intended to halt a resupply mission to a Philippine outpost in the Sierra Madre, a rusting World War II vessel run aground years ago on the shoal to mark Manila’s claim. China accused the Philippines of secretly hauling equipment to reinforce the decaying ship among food and water supplies for Philippine marines stationed on the outpost.
The bottom line: “While scary, this is more a continuation of near-boiling point tensions, where neither Beijing nor Manila wants the dispute to spill over into outright conflict,” said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group. But Tuesday’s incident, he added, is “increasing the risk for both China and the Philippines that there could be some kind of aerial collision between the two countries.”
An explosion is pictured at an exploration site of the company Greenland Anorthosite Mining of an anorthosite deposit close to the Qeqertarsuatsiaat fjord, Greenland, on Sept. 11, 2021.
Greenlanders are set to go to the polls next month as US President Donald Trump increases pressure on Denmark to transfer sovereignty of the semi-autonomous Arctic island to the United States.
Australia-based Energy Transition Minerals, the mining company that holds the license for controversial rare earths and uranium deposits, is hoping the social-democratic Siumut Party – currently the second-largest contingent in the Greenlandic parliament, known as the Inatsisartut – will oust the ruling left-wing environmentalist Inuit Ataqatigiit Party in the March 11 election. The two parties are currently in a governing coalition together, with IA in the top position, but Siumut has attracted attention by pledging to hold a referendum on independence from Denmark this year.
After taking power in 2021, the IA banned uranium mining, effectively halting exploration of what Energy Transition Minerals bills as potentially the largest deposit of rare earth oxides in the world. Rare earths are a family of 17 metallic minerals needed for the batteries and magnets used for electric cars, power plants, and fighter jets. China dominates the supply chain, controlling roughly 70% of all mining and 90% of refining capacity.
The IA opposed the mining because of the high density of uranium mixed into the ore, which it feared would generate radioactive pollution along the island’s southwest coast, where much of the mostly indigenous population of roughly 57,000 lives.
Now, Energy Transition Minerals is betting Siumut, under whose rule the mining project was originally approved, will win and lift the moratorium to help generate more income for Greenland to achieve economic self-sufficiency and open the door to a long-sought breakaway from the Danish kingdom.
Awkward technicalities: With 7% of the company, Energy Transition’s largest shareholder is China’s Shenghe Resources, but the firm has vowed to supply the West with its metals. Thanks to America’s trade deals with the European Union and Australia, however, arcane Treasury rules may mean the Melbourne-headquartered company’s rare earths qualify for lucrative US tax credits. With the stock price trading at a fraction of a penny per share, however, Wall Street has doubts about the mining firm’s future.Endorsed by steelworkers onstage, then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump puts on a hard hat during his Make America Great Again Rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 19, 2024.
US President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to the US. This raises the tariff rate on aluminum to 25% from the previous 10% that Trump imposed in 2018, and it reinstates a 25% tariff on “millions of tons” of steel and aluminum imports previously exempted or excluded.
“Today I’m simplifying our tariffs on steel and aluminum,” Trump stated. “It’s 25% without exceptions or exemptions.”
Cue the negotiations. On Monday, Trump reportedly took a call from Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who is seeking a carve-out for Australian steel exports. Albanese described their conversation as “constructive and warm” but did not want to “speak on [Trump’s] behalf.”
The EU said it would respond with “firm and proportionate countermeasures.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeausaid Tuesday that the tariffs were “entirely unjustified” and “unacceptable,” noting that Canada – the US’ biggest source of aluminum and one of its top sources of steel – would respond if necessary but will try to work with the US administration to avoid them. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has also threatened countermeasures in recent weeks, said her country would keep a “cool head.”
The new US tariffs are set to take effect on March 4, and Trump added that he will also consider additional tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, and computer chips.
Why now? Trump’s announcement came two days after the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who announced that Japan would increase its US investment to $1 trillion, including a commitment from Nippon Steel to “invest heavily” in US Steel, after a $15 billion buyout was nixed last year by the Biden administration. The deal is another reflection of Trump’s plan to strengthen domestic steel production and make imports less attractive – or even necessary.
Was there a connection? “It’s certainly possible,” says Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling. “But we knew steel tariffs were coming — it was only a matter of time. While Trump is proud to be Tariff Man, he could also be called the Man of Steel. Steel is his favorite industry.” We’re waiting to see whether Ishiba picks up the phone like Albanese and leverages Nippon’s investment to lift the levies.