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Australia & Pacific
In his final months in office, US President Joe Biden is looking to bolster the China-wary alliance known as “The Quad,” which brings together the US, Australia, Japan, and India. This weekend he hosted Quad leaders at his home in Wilmington, Delaware.
While the White House claimed the summit targeted no specific country, a joint statement condemned “coercive and intimidating maneuvers in the South China Sea,” a clear shot at Beijing. And in a so-called “hot mic” moment, Biden commented that “China continues to behave aggressively, testing us all across the region.”
Beijing, for its part, sees the Quad as a “threat and challenge to regional peace and security.”
The Quad summit announced expanded collaboration in maritime patrols, disaster relief, cervical cancer vaccines, tech fellowships, and clean energy projects.
The Quad hasn’t always been a top priority for its members – it lapsed almost entirely between 2008 and 2017. But when asked about the future of the group following the approaching departures of both Biden and Japanese PM Fumio Kishida, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese predicted the Quad will endure, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated “The Quad is here to stay.” To underscore that, he offered to host the group’s next gathering in 2025.180,000: Uncle Vladimir wants … more troops. The Russian president on Monday ordered that his country’s army be enlarged to 1.5 million active troops, an increase of 180,000 soldiers. If successful, the growth would make Russia’s military the second largest worldwide, with China in the No. 1 spot.
28: Canada’s Liberal Party lost another big byelection on Monday in Montreal’s LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding. Between this loss to Bloc-Québécois and a June loss to Conservatives in Toronto-St. Paul’s, PM Justin Trudeau’s party has seen a summer bookended by major losses in so-called Liberal strongholds. Preliminary results from Monday’s vote show it was so close that the BQ beat the Liberals by less than a percentage point, 28% to 27.2%. But don’t expect Trudeau to step down: He said before the polls opened that he would stay on as party leader whatever the result.
18: On Sunday, Beijing releasedDavid Lin, an American pastor who had been wrongfully detained in China for 18 years, partially fulfilling the White House’s repeated requests to hand over detainees. Washington is also seeking the release of Kai Li and Mark Swidan, who have been detained in China since 2016 and 2012, respectively. Their detentions are scheduled for a congressional hearing on Wednesday.
50: Up to 50 people have died in ongoing fighting among illegal mine operators in Papua New Guinea’s Porgera Valley, the UN announced Monday. Security forces have reportedly started deploying in the valley, which was also the site of a landslide that killed up to 2,000 people in May, but violence, especially inter-tribal violence, is a growing problem that New Guinea has few resources to address.
90: UN health authorities in Gaza announced on Monday that they have vaccinated 90% of the 640,000 children with their first dose against polio, a major humanitarian accomplishment amid the ongoing fighting. UNRWA says it’s now focused on getting the vaccine to the remaining children and setting up for the second dose in about two months.
274: At least 274 inmates in a Nigerian prison in Borno state have escaped after major floods caused walls in the facility to collapse. Around 4 million Nigerians have been affected by the floods, and at least 1,000 people across West and Central Africa have died.Australia this week became the latest country to take measures to restrict immigration, as the government announced a fresh cap on the number of foreign students it will admit for study at universities and vocational schools.
The measure comes amid broader, ongoing efforts to rein in immigration, which soared in recent years to help fill pandemic-related vacancies, but which has also put pressure on infrastructure and housing prices.
Next year, Australia will allow in only 275,000 foreign students. The country is currently the temporary home for nearly three times that number.
The government is aiming to bring the number of foreign students back to pre-pandemic levels, and to root out instances in which foreigners use study visas as an excuse to come to Australia for other purposes.
Currently, there are 10% more international students at Aussie state universities than there were before COVID-19. Among private vocational schools, the number is 50%.
Universities aren’t happy. Australia has historically been a major destination for foreign students, who constitute a $50 billion annual industry. They make up the second-largest economic sector for Australia after mining, according to Universities Australia, which warned Tuesday that “having fewer students here will only widen the funding gap at a time when universities need greater support.”
Next year, Australia will allow in only 275,000 foreign students. The country is currently the temporary home for nearly three times that number. The government is aiming to bring the number of foreign students back to pre-pandemic levels, and to root out instances in which foreigners use study visas as an excuse to come to Australia for other purposes. Currently, there are 10% more international students at Aussie state universities than there were before COVID-19. Among private vocational schools, the number is 50%.
Universities aren’t happy. Australia has historically been a major destination for foreign students, who constitute a $50 billion annual industry. They make up the second-largest economic sector for Australia after mining, according to Universities Australia, which warned Tuesday that “having fewer students here will only widen the funding gap at a time when universities need greater support.”On Sunday, Filipino and Chinese vessels collided for the second time in a week at the Sabina Shoal, a disputed area of the South China Sea. This latest clash occurred less than a month after Manila and Beijing signed a deal meant to avoid confrontation and escalation risk around the South Thomas Shoal. Chinese forces also fired flares at an airplane from Manila’s fisheries regulation agency on Saturday, and a Chinese fighter jet buzzed the same plane on Aug. 19.
Why the flare-up? The proximate cause seems to be Manila’s deployment of a coast guard ship to the waters around Sabina Shoal, an uninhabitable reef well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. But Beijing still claims “indisputable” sovereignty there and may be worried about Manila attempting to set up some sort of semi-permanent base, as it did on the South Thomas Shoal by beaching an old ship on the rocks in 1999.
Beijing and Manila both recognize the risks of testing each other’s boundaries — and Washington has been clear it will back its longstanding ally if called upon to protect it from China. Even so, Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says the likelihood of the invocation of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty “is quite low, as the actions by the China coast guard vessels do not rise to the level of a ‘direct attack’ on a Philippine vessel and no injuries have been reported by either side.” It also means Beijing is “steering clear of the red lines established by Philippine President Marcos, and Manila has little interest in escalating tensions in the near term,” Chan adds.The government is now promising there will be no changes to election laws before the November polls. Conceding likely saved them from having to deal with more protests planned for Friday, but it also cleared the way for Anies to stand for governor of Jakarta, an influential post that would position him to grapple with his political rivals.
That — and the fact that the protests triggered a sharp drop in the rupiah and Indonesian stocks — could cause headaches for the incoming Prabowo administration. It will be under pressure to match Joko’s economic achievements, which were accompanied by significant democratic backsliding.
We’re also keenly watching the effort to move Indonesia’s capital from Jakarta – Anies’ base of power – to Nusantara, a new city being built in the pristine (and thus politically untainted) jungles of Borneo where Subianto might operate without as much flak.
1,000s: Thousands of Indonesians attempted to storm the Parliament building in Jakarta on Thursday, clashing with police, tearing down fences, and ultimately forcing legislators to delay a vote that would overhaul election laws. The proposed changes would enable current President Joko Widodo’s son to take a regional governorship despite being too young and make it easier for Widodo to influence politics through his political party. Protests were also reported in other major cities across the vast archipelago.
6: Consulting powerhouse PwC’s Chinese branch told its clients it expects to be hit with a six-month ban on doing business in China as punishment for auditing the collapsed property developer Evergrande. PwC said in March that Evergrand had inflated its assets in China by $80 billion before defaulting on debts in 2021.
30 million: Bad news for the roughly 30 million American workers who thought their binding noncompetes had been rendered void by the Federal Trade Commission: A court has overturned the FTC’s regulation. District Judge Ada Brown of Texas wrote the ban was “arbitrary and capricious because it is unreasonably overbroad without a reasonable explanation.” The FTC says it may appeal.
2,531: The price of gold reached $2,531 per troy ounce on Tuesday, a record high, as the continuing bull market in the metal has begun to attract investors in Western economies. Chinese consumers have been driving the price up by investing in gold as a stable alternative to their topsy-turvy property and securities markets, but with the US Federal Reserve eyeing a rate cut in September, prices may be buoyed further as money flows out of US bonds seeking higher returns.
15: Indian officials plan to conduct a long-postponed census next month and aim to publish the results in 2026, resulting in a 15-year gap between polls rather than the customary 10. The census – likely the world’s largest ever – was meant to be done in 2021 but was delayed by the pandemic. New Delhi has faced ardent criticism from the civil sector for the delay, as the country’s rapidly growing population and economy need to be accurately accounted for to ensure the government’s programs are fit to task.