How serious is China's demographic problem?
China’s demographic problem is massive (And yes, Elon Musk is right to be worried about it). The United Nations estimates China’s population will be roughly cut in half by 2100. Even though Beijing ended the one-child policy years ago, birth rates remain low. The country’s population is aging rapidly, which puts more pressure on the (smaller) working-age population to support them. As a result, economic growth will continue to slow, increasing the probability of domestic social instability. There are still near-term adjustments that can help, like: extending the retirement age, making agriculture more efficient/less labor intensive, and increasing urbanization.
Are you worried about the recent highly publicized drone sightings over the northeast United States?
No, not particularly. What I am concerned about is the broader decentralization of dangerous technologies and the rapid-fire dissemination of conspiracy theories that only confuse and further polarize the American public. Not only are UAVs getting easier and cheaper to produce, but so are a whole host of cyber weapons and other rapidly advancing technologies that will have broad impacts on society. And while some theories about the uptick in drone sightings may be fun to explore, it’s becoming obvious that people are having a harder time than ever deciding if what they see online is true or not. Senators are mistaking Star Wars props as downed aircraft and theories about missing nuclear weapons or looming alien invasions are racking up millions of views online. That’s troubling. My advice: consume a diverse media diet, have a healthy dose of skepticism, and touch some grass to help prevent a bad trip down the rabbit hole.
Can the United States win a tariff trade war and maintain the status of the US dollar as a world currency?
Yes, the United States would make it out of a full-on trade war with US dollar dominance still intact, but not without damage to the US economy. The US dollar is king partly because of the enduring stability and strength of the US economy and trust in its financial institutions, partly because everyone else uses the dollar already, and partly because there is no (better) alternative. A full-fledged and prolonged trade war would hurt the US economy and undermine global confidence in US policymakers, which would ultimately weaken the dollar’s position. But it would hurt other countries’ economies more than it would hurt America’s, meaning that the dollar would likely still come out on top in relative terms. Still, I expect Trump won’t go full Smoot-Hawley. The market backlash will limit how far he actually goes as opposed to what he’s currently threatening. Plus, countries that are significantly weaker than the United States will be less likely to retaliate and more willing to negotiate. Also, Trump’s incoming economic team will act as at least a marginal constraint.
Does Europe have the ability to help Ukraine defeat Russia without US help?
To put it simply: no. The United States is (by far) the most important supporter of Ukraine, and Europe doesn’t have the funds or political will to make up the gap by itself. Heck, Europe’s own defense is seriously constrained by its dependence on America’s' weapons systems and intelligence. A ten-year window for Europe to build up its defense readiness is plausible, but Russia is knocking on its proverbial doorstep today. If the United States were to give up all support for Ukraine, many European states would probably join the Americans diplomatically.
What's your view on what comes after a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia? Do you think Ukraine has a chance of joining NATO anytime soon?
Although a ceasefire would mark a significant shift in the conflict, I wouldn’t expect it to end the conflict in its entirety. As nearly three years of war have taught us, Vladimir Putin will do everything in his power to gain the territory he seeks – regardless of the price paid by Russia’s population or economy. So, a pause in the fighting is only a temporary solution. A sustainable diplomatic agreement is going to be incredibly difficult as long as Putin remains in power. One way President Zelensky envisions securing what remains of his country: joining NATO, thus making allies like the United States treaty-bound to respond to another incursion on Ukraine’s sovereignty. But as it stands now, I think Ukraine is going to have to punt its hopes of joining NATO down the road for at least a decade. Putin won’t accept anything less. Trump won’t either. And other leaders like France’s Emmanuel Macron are starting to come around as well.
How will President Trump's foreign policy affect the developing world?
What we know about Trump’s first term is that his foreign policy approach is transactional: if agreements don’t directly give a “win” to the United States, we can expect them to be reexamined. When looking at Trump’s proposed tariffs, new trade barriers may make exports from developing countries less competitive, which would certainly create bigger economic challenges for them. US foreign policy has already eroded American soft power/influence over many nations in the Global South, which is likely to continue under Trump given his record on human rights, climate change, and staunch Israel support. Some developing countries, on the other hand, are led by leaders with pro-Trump sensibilities. In those cases, personal relationships with (and praise for) Trump will lead to stronger relations with the United States.
Do you think the United States is in decline?
In terms of its political system, yes I do. When the Berlin Wall came down 35 years ago, people around the world really admired the United States’ political system—the “shining city upon a hill,” as Reagan said in his farewell address. Very few people outside the United States feel that way now. Political polarization is weakening the fabric of American society and getting in the way of addressing America’s domestic troubles, including income inequality, below-average healthcare access, and above-average gun violence. It’s been an incredibly notable—and pretty disheartening—decline. That’s only one perspective, though. The US is not at all in decline in most other ways: economically, technologically, militarily, in its human capital, in the status of the dollar as the global reserve currency, in its natural resources, and in the stability of its geopolitical corner of the world, to name a few.
Can you name one positive thing you think will happen in 2025?
In 2025, I’m confident that the world will be as interconnected as ever, even if some linkages are in flux. Countries around the world will continue to engage economically with everyone they can. Plus, the supply of people who want to engage with digital content from around the world will continue to grow. The cat’s out of the bag with globalization, so to speak. I know that word can be politically charged, but globalization has been a net positive to humanity. Between 1981 and 2015, the number of people living on less than $1.90 a day dropped from 1.81 billion to around 700 million. That global economic growth wouldn’t have happened without increased trade brought on by globalization. Fragmented politics won’t change that economic reality.
How is it that you came to do what you do? It looks like you made up your own job and became successful at it.
Well, don’t forget it took over thirty years to get here. But yes, I feel very lucky to have landed where I did. I’ve always loved studying international politics. It’s a discipline you can devote your entire life to yet still learn new things every day. What I hadn’t appreciated in my studies was that the private sector wasn’t exactly hiring political scientists. Like any new grad, I had to hustle and keep forging ahead anyway. I did my best to network and got to know people at different companies who seemed to find my insights worthwhile. At the time, they didn’t have a job for what I did: explaining to people how world events shape global markets (and thus their companies). After a while, I finally asked, “What if I hang out a shingle…start my own business…would any of you become a client?” To my surprise, almost everyone was on board. So, in 1998 (which is before some of you were born, horrifyingly), the very modest beginning of the global risk consulting firm I have today was born—and more importantly, so was the whole political risk industry. The rest, as they say, is history.
