Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

News

Can Dems rebuild a blue fence in the Midwest?

In Midterm Matters, we look at hot-button US midterm news to separate the signal (need-to-knows) from the noise (the chatter).
Ari Winkleman

In Midterm Matters, we look at hot-button US midterm news to separate the signal (need-to-knows) from the noise (the chatter).


Today, we head to the Rust Belt. Yes, that bunch of states that used to lean so reliably left that they were once called Dems' Blue Wall — until 2016, when Donald Trump smashed a red wrecking ball right through it to win the presidency.

Noise: Ohio has been aboard the red train since the Trump years. With industrial decline plaguing much of the region, we’ve seen plenty of chatter about Republicans gaining more traction as working-class voters switch allegiances to the GOP. But …

FiveThirtyEight forecasts that Democrats are leading in gubernatorial races in the three Rust Belt battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Witmer is ahead of Republican rival Tudor Dixon by the widest margin, with both school shootings and abortion as hot topics. Next, in Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro is leading his Republican opponent and 2020 election denier, Douglas Mastriano, in a tighter race that has controversially featured the role of religion in both men’s lives. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is a toss-up: Gov. Tom Evers (D) is only slightly ahead of his Republican challenger, Tim Michels, with lots of squabbling over crime figures.

Signal: While Republican congressional and presidential gains in the region are real, these gubernatorial races show us that Dems still have lasting strength in the Rust Belt.


This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.

More For You

Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)'s Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant, one of the world's largest nuclear facilities, stands along the seaside in Kashiwazaki, Niigata prefecture, Japan December 21, 2025.

Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)'s Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant, one of the world's largest nuclear facilities, stands along the seaside in Kashiwazaki, Niigata prefecture, Japan December 21, 2025.

REUTERS/Issei Kato
54: Japan is reopening the world’s largest nuclear power plant after a regional vote gave the greenlight on Monday. The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, located 136 miles outside of Tokyo, had its 54 reactors shuttered following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that spurred the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl. The decision reflects Japan’s push to [...]
Pro-democracy protesters carry portraits of North Yemen's late president Ibrahim al-Hamdi.

Pro-democracy protesters carry portraits of North Yemen's late president Ibrahim al-Hamdi.

REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
Group of Yemeni ministers announce support for UAE-backed rebel coalitionIn the latest twist to Yemen’s decade-long civil war, a group of government ministers declared support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), a rebel group that broke the war’s deadlock earlier this month by seizing control of the oil-rich Handramout region. [...]
US President Donald Trump speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Gimhae Air Base in Gimhae, South Korea, on October 30, 2025.

US President Donald Trump speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, during a bilateral meeting at Gimhae Air Base in Gimhae, South Korea, on October 30, 2025.

Yonhap News/POOL/Handout via Sipa USA
Every January, Eurasia Group, GZERO’s parent company, unveils a forecast of the top 10 geopolitical risks for the world in the year ahead, authored by EG President Ian Bremmer and EG Chairman Cliff Kupchan. The 2026 report drops on Monday, January 5.Before looking forward, though, it’s worth looking back. Here’s how the 2025 Top Risks report [...]
US President Donald Trump announces tariffs on US trading partners at the White House in Washington, DC, USA, on April 2, 2025.

US President Donald Trump arrives to announce reciprocal tariffs against US trading partners in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, on April 2, 2025.

POOL via CNP/INSTARimages.com
As GZERO readers will be all too aware, 2025 has been a hefty year for geopolitics. US President Donald Trump’s return to office has rocked global alliances, conflicts have raged from Khartoum to Kashmir, and new powers – both tangible and technological – have emerged.To put a bow on the year, GZERO highlights the biggest geopolitics stories of 2025. [...]