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A volunteer florist adds baby's breath flowers to a Valentine’s Day rose bouquet on Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025.
200: Disruptive weather patterns fueled by climate change have inflicted major crop damage in West Africa, where most of the world’s cacao, the raw form of the bean that is processed into cocoa, is grown. The price of raw cocoa, chocolate’s key ingredient, has surged by 200% over the past year. Roses won’t be cheap either. Is there a “bah humbug” equivalent for Valentine’s Day?
400 million: The US State Department’s procurement forecast for 2025, which details purchases the agency expects to make, included $400 million for armored Tesla vehicles. Tesla is owned by someone called Elon Musk. On Wednesday, as this story started to make headlines, the document was updated, changing “Armored Tesla” to “Armored Electric Vehicles,” but the contract value remains the same.
94.5: Despite President Xi Jinping’s pledge that China’s carbon emissions would peak by 2030, the country’s coal plant construction climbed by 94.5 gigawatts in 2024, its highest level since 2015.
457: Liberian President Joseph Boakai has suspended 457 top government officials, including ministers, for failing to declare their assets to the country’s anti-corruption agency. The workers will be out for a month, unpaid, or until they provide the required declarations.
4,000: In Colombia, a bill aims to prohibit sales of merchandise glorifying Pablo Escobar, the notorious drug lord who has been linked to more than 4,000 murders. Vendors are not happy with the proposed law, insisting that Escobar merch sells well and helps support their families.
200,000: The Trump White House on Thursday instructed federal agency leaders to terminate the bulk of their probationary staff. This reportedly could impact as many as 200,000 employees who have worked for the federal government for less than a year. Some staffers in public safety and law enforcement roles are expected to be spared, so it’s unclear how many will be impacted.
59-10: An exclusive GZERO and Echelon poll found deep partisan divides over DOGE’s plans to shrink the US government. The poll found that 59% of Republicans believed cutting 300,000 federal jobs would increase government efficiency, compared to just 10% of Democrats. When it came to its efforts to dismantle USAID, 60% of Republicans support completely overhauling or eliminating the agency, compared to only 12% of Democrats.
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take from Munich, Germany, where the Munich Security Conference is just about to kick off. And it is going to be a historic meeting, and not necessarily in a good way.
Everyone I've been speaking to here, deeply concerned about the sudden conversation, 90-minute conversation, with a full readout from, both the Kremlin and from the United States, between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Not so much concerned that a conversation took place, rather that it happened, and Trump is engaging unilaterally without coordinating in advance with the Ukrainians or the Europeans. And in that regard, very, very different than what we've seen over the first three years of the war.
Look, there's no question, everyone does want to see the war wind down. Everyone would love to see a ceasefire. The question is, how and what does the NATO alliance look like after that? What does Europe look like in terms of its engagement, its trust with the United States, the transatlantic relationship? And, of course, what happens with Ukraine? The statements that have been made by Trump and by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth are things that we've heard a lot about privately, not just from the Trump administration, from the Europeans, from the Biden administration too, the idea that NATO membership is not in the cards, long-term, if there's going to be some sort of formal peace agreement, that Ukraine is going to have to give up some kind of territory, not that they should, not that that's reasonable, not they don't have territorial integrity, but there's no way for them to get back all the territory that they had back in 2014. Those are things that have now been said publicly by the Americans. But they are being said both unilaterally and also in advance of any negotiation. In other words, concessions are being made to the Russians before both sides sit down. And that is, of course, a very significant concern, for the Europeans and the Ukrainians.
There is also a question what kind of security guarantees would be provided to Ukraine? According to the United States, certainly will not involve Americans on the ground. No troops. Would be European troops. They're the ones that have to do the bulk of the lifting. They're the ones that have to ensure that there was a response if Ukraine were attacked again, after a ceasefire. Now, it's not that the Americans are suddenly washing their hands of all of this. In fact, the first cabinet official to go to Kiev from the Trump administration, just met with Zelensky in the last 24-hours; that’s Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent. Why Treasury? Because Trump is trying to get something for giving something. It's transactional, as he always is. And in this case, focusing on critical minerals from Ukraine. Nominally, the number is some $500 billion of what would be Ukrainian resources to the United States in return for ongoing, US military support for Ukraine.
Outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, “This is selfish, the Americans shouldn't be doing this.” The Ukrainian president, who actually has to work with the Americans going forward, unlike Scholz, saying, “What a great offer. Happy to talk to you. Want to find a way to make this work?” So, on the one hand, it's not as if the United States is leaving Ukraine high and dry. And certainly, a level of engagement between the Americans and the Russians is very important. It’s essential going forward. But of course, what Putin wants is a deal not only to his favor, but not just about Ukraine. He wants to be talking just to the Americans, and he wants to be talking to them about missile defense, about NATO enlargement, about a whole range of issues that he has, that he takes issue with. And that's something that Trump is perfectly interested in.
At the end of the day, Trump is a lot more interested in cutting a deal for himself that allows the Americans to focus a lot more on China and on Asia, from a security perspective, than working with the Europeans to try to do something collectively on Ukraine. And this is the biggest challenge and also the biggest difference between Trump and Biden, in terms of foreign policy. Biden fundamentally believe that a strong Europe, coordinated with the United States, was long-term in American interests. President Trump does not. He believes that a strong Europe is a bad thing. He wants to see more exits, like Brexit, from other countries. He supports Euro-skeptic movements across Europe. He would much rather have individual negotiations with individual European countries where the Americans are stronger.
What does that mean for the Munich Security Conference? What does it mean for NATO? What does it mean for the transatlantic relationship? Long-term, nothing good. Final point here, the Europeans are taking this seriously, but it's late. They've been told, by Americans for several administrations now, they need to be spending more time and more money on their own defense, their own collective security. Macron has talked about it a fair amount in France. The Polish government is certainly taking the lead on that, especially after the Russians invade Ukraine. But most European governments aren't taking it nearly as seriously and aren't prepared to spend the money. And that reality, for decades now, made much more stark and severe with the Russian invasion in 2014 of Ukraine, which the Europeans did virtually nothing about, and now, when 2022, you've got Trump coming in and saying, “I'm not going to do this,” that's forcing the Europeans in a much more stark way, but also much too late for them to get their act together, in my view.
So, we'll see what we see over the next couple of days, but this is going to be a very, again, historic Munich Security Conference. Glad to be here, and we'll talk to you soon.
An artistic rendering of an asteroid or comet striking near the Moon's south pole about 3.8 billion years ago, an impact that carved out two large craters.
Scientists recently discovered the giant space rock, called asteroid 2024 YR4, is set to reach our planet on Dec. 22, 2032. The asteroid, between 130 and 300 feet wide, is big enough to devastate a city or trigger a tsunami, to say nothing of what the impact or aftershocks could do if the extraterrestrial threat struck a nuclear plant or oil refinery.
The good news: NASA predicts the chances of impact are only about 2.3%, meaning a Christmas gift may come early if the odds remain at about 98% that YR4 zooms right past us. Given that the US National Transportation Safety Board once estimated that roughly 96% of passengers survived plane accidents (mishaps, not crashes), and air safety has largely improved since that 2001 study, those odds are pretty good. Statistics on the deadliness of asteroids are quite misleading.
But here’s another spin on it: As economist Tyler Cowen put it, the chance of drawing three of a kind in a standard five-card poker game is about 2.9% – so it’s hardly an unprecedented event.
Whatever the risk, the Chinese government isn’t taking any chances. China's State Administration of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense just posted a recruitment notice listing three available roles for a "planetary defense post.”
As fans of Chinese sci-fi writer Cixin Liu’s “Three Body Problem” may note, better an asteroid than a slow-moving armada of genocidal aliens.HARD NUMBERS: Chinese marriages fall, Romanian president resigns, Bangladesh police arrest hundreds, Palestinian Authority may scrap “martyrs’ payments.”
A group wedding at the Harbin Ice and Snow World on January 6, 2025 in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province of China. As the population continues to decline, the Chinese government has been trying to boost marriages and fertility rates.
20: The number of marriages in China fell to 6.1 million last year, 20% lower than in 2023 and down by more than 50% since 2013. The marital malaise is part of a bigger demographic crisis facing China. Although it boasts the world’s second-largest population, at 1.4 billion people, the country’s population is declining. Until 2015, the state enforced a “one child” policy to avoid urban overcrowding. But since then high costs of child care and education have stymied government efforts to encourage people to have children.
6: At least six people were detained Monday during celebratory demonstrations in Bucharest following the resignation of Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. Iohannis has been under pressure to step down since the annulment last December of the election to pick his successor after a social media campaign allegedly organized by Russia helped a little-known far-right candidate to win. Although Iohannis’ term has ended, he was trying to stay in power until the rerun election in May. This triggered criticism and protests over the perception that, on top of involvement in the unpopular decision to scrap the election results, he was acting unconstitutionally by exceeding his term.
1,300: Police in Bangladesh have arrested at least 1,300 supporters of former PM Sheikh Hasina, who was ousted in mass protests last August that were touched off by a backlash against certain hiring quotas in the civil service. Since then the interim government has struggled to tamp down tensions between supporters of Hasina, a strong female leader who came to power in 2009, and her opponents. Hasina herself is currently in exile in India.
20: The Palestinian Authority, which enjoys limited self-rule in the West Bank, has reportedly signaled to the Trump administration that it could scrap its controversial “martyrs’ payments.” Under this 20-year-old policy, the PA gives financial support to the families of Palestinians killed or wounded while carrying out acts of violence against Israel or who are imprisoned by Israel. The PA has often framed the policy as a social welfare measure under conditions of occupation, while critics say that it’s a “pay to slay” policy that simply encourages more violence and terrorism.
Stacked containers in American and Chinese national colors symbolize a trade war between the US and China.
Of greater interest are nontariff measures, including anti-monopoly investigations launched into Google and the placing of Calvin Klein’s parent company, PVH, on China’s “unreliable entities” list, limiting the brand’s operations there. Beijing also imposed export controls on 25 rare metals, including tungsten, critical for electronics and military equipment.
In the US, consumers might not like Trump’s cancellation of the “de minimis exemption,” which allowed the purchase of goods under $800 without duties. The move is expected to hurt low-income Americans who rely on direct shipping from online vendors while having a minimal impact on Chinese firms. While Trump has said he’s in “no hurry” to talk to President Xi Jinping, we’re watching whether public backlash in the US changes his tune.
Next, the European Union? Trump has put Brussels on his hit list but has not given any dates or specifics. EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said on Tuesday, "We are ready to engage immediately“ and hoping “to avoid the measures which would bring a lot of disturbance to the most important trade and investment relationship on this planet.”
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What does Putin mean when he says Europe "will stand at the feet of the master"?
It means that he loves to troll his adversaries. Don't you remember when he said that he actually thought Biden would be a better president from Russia's perspective than Trump? He trolls. It's all misinformation. It's propaganda. It's all served to undermine and show that he's powerful, and he can say whatever he wants. And of course, he would love to see a fight between the Americans and their allies, whether it's the Nordics on Greenland or it's Canada on 51st state, or it's Panama on the canal, or it's Europe on tariffs. And he wants to undermine the countries that gets a divide and conquer kind of response from Putin. And that is what he is doing when he trolls the Europeans.
What's next for Panama after deciding to exit China's Belt and Road Initiative?
Well, certainly, of all the countries that are facing a deeply asymmetric relationship on the back of threats from President Trump, Panama is high on that list. And they really are trying to find a way to avoid tariffs and avoid the Americans squeezing them on the canal. And an easy way to do that, because they've heard this now directly from Trump and from Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is that the Chinese have too much influence over transit. And that is particularly true through these port facilities that a Hong Kong-based company, read, China, is in charge of. And so, they are opening investigations into the contract and into how they engage there. And they're also saying they'll pull out of Belt and Road. All of that is clearly going to upset and antagonize the Chinese. And I think that the Panamanians are very, very comfortable showing that they are going to orient much more towards the United States, given how much more they rely on the Americans.
How would a potential Turkey defense pact with Syria reshape power dynamics in the Middle East?
Given who's on the ground in Syria and the fact that the Americans are likely to pull out the over 2,000 troops they have there, and that Trump has said it's really up to Turkey to maintain that relationship, they were the ones that were closest to the rebels that ended up defeating, overthrowing Assad's regime. Not surprised at all that that is where the diplomacy is heading. But that doesn't mean that it's going to be stable, and it certainly doesn't mean that the Kurds on the ground are going to be handled well. And that will be what we need to watch carefully. But Turkey, a NATO ally that has a lot of influence across the region and particularly now on the ground with Syria, I think that'll be relatively stable given the support from the United States. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Jenni Hermoso leaves the National Court in Madrid, Spain after testifying on day one of the trial of former national team coach Luis Rubiales, who is accused of forcibly kissing her, February 3, 2025
2.5: Spain’s former soccer chief, Luis Rubiales, wenton trial Monday over the forced kiss he gave star player Jenni Hermoso on live television after the team won the Women’s World Cup in 2023. Prosecutors are seeking a prison sentence of 2.5 years not only for the kiss itself but for Rubiales’ subsequent attempts to force Hermoso to downplay the incident amid public outrage.
14: Louisiana Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy, a physician, faces a critical decision in Tuesday's Finance Committee vote on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination for health secretary. Cassidy has expressed reservations about Kennedy’s vaccine views. With 14 Republicans and 13 Democrats on the committee, a “no” vote from Cassidy could complicate Kennedy’s path to confirmation by impacting the committee’s recommendation to the Senate.
7: A blast at a Moscow residential building located 7 miles from the Kremlin killedArmen Sargsyan, the leader of a pro-Russian paramilitary group operating in Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has not commented on the incident but Sargsyan has been wanted since 2014 for murders committed in Kyiv. Ukraine is believed to be the author of several assassinations of high-profile Russian security figures in and around Moscow in recent months.
$50 million: The Democrats are pivoting (back) to the working class. The leading SuperPac that supports the party has created a $50 million “Win them Back” fund to better appeal to Americans without college degrees ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The working class used to be a bulwark of Democratic support but Trump’s economic nationalism message and attacks on “wokeism” have helped him to forge an increasingly multi-racial working-class coalition.
2: Going once, going twice … gone! Sotheby’s is closing down its e-commerce business in China after barely two years. The famed auction house had bet on the wisdom of creating an online market in China, which for decades has been one of the biggest drivers of global demand for high-end luxury goods and elite art. But interest turned out to be weaker than expected, and after Sotheby’s overall auction sales dropped by nearly 25% in 2024, the company brought down the gavel on its China e-commerce business.