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Every January, Eurasia Group, our parent company, produces a report with its forecast for the Top 10 Risks for the world in the year ahead. Its authors are EG President Ian Bremmer and EG Chairman Cliff Kupchan.
Here are brief summaries of the most important risks that will preoccupy world leaders, business decision-makers, and the rest of us in 2025, according to Bremmer and Kupchan. You can read the full report here.
1. The G-Zero wins
A G-Zero world is an era when no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order. We’ve been living with this lack of international leadership for nearly a decade now. But in 2025, the problem will get a lot worse.
Bremmer and Kupchan argue that we should expect new and expanding power vacuums, emboldened rogue actors, and a heightened risk of dangerous accidents, miscalculations, and conflict. The risk of a geopolitical crisis, they warn, “is higher than at any point in our lifetimes.”
Russia and China remain challengers to the Western-led security order, though in very different ways. Rising inequality, shifting demographics, and warp-speed technological change have persuaded a growing number of citizens in advanced industrial democracies that “globalism” hasn’t worked in their favor. And the world’s military superpower will again be led by the only post-World War II president who rejects the assumption that a US global leadership role serves the American people.
Bremmer and Kupchan detail three ways out of what they call a “geopolitical recession.” One, reform existing institutions like the UN, IMF, and others to operate more effectively and command broad legitimacy. Two, build replacement institutions that better reflect the underlying balance of power. Three, impose a new set of rules by force. Different actors are pursuing all three of these strategies. But in 2025, it’s the third option where challengers to the system are devoting their attention, time, and resources.
This Top Risk is not a single event, the authors suggest. It’s the cumulative impact of the intensifying G-Zero leadership deficit and the deepening geopolitical recession on the breakdown of the global order. The result is a uniquely dangerous period of world history on par with the 1930s or the early Cold War.
And just when we were celebrating the end of 2024.
2. Rule of Don
Donald Trump’s second term will not be like his first, Bremmer and Kupchan predict. Emboldened by the scale of his 2024 election victory and the support of a unified Republican Party, Trump will enter office more experienced and better organized than in 2017. He will populate his administration with loyalists who now have a better understanding of how the federal government works. His consolidated control over Republicans in Congress, a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and a friendlier media environment will help him advance his agenda.
From this solid foundation, Trump will work to purge the federal bureaucracy of professional civil servants and replace them with political loyalists, particularly at the Justice Department and the FBI. This consolidation of power will “stretch the norms of Washington to their breaking point,” according to Bremmer and Kupchan. The erosion of independent checks on executive power and an active undermining of the rule of law, they argue, will leave more of US policy dependent on the arbitrary decisions and personal whims of one powerful man in Washington rather than on established and politically impartial legal principles.
Democracy itself, the report cautions, will not be threatened. The US isn’t Hungary. But Trump’s indifference, in some cases hostility, to longstanding American values will set dangerous new precedents in “political vandalism” for future presidents of both parties.
3. US-China breakdown
The détente established by Joe Biden and Xi Jinping at Woodside in November 2023 kept US-China tensions reasonably contained in 2024. But Trump’s return to office will unleash an “unmanaged decoupling in the world’s most important geopolitical relationship.” That, in turn, risks a major economic disruption and a broader crisis.
Trump will set new tariffs on Chinese goods to pressure Beijing for concessions on a host of issues, and China’s leaders, despite real economic weakness at home, will respond more forcefully to prove to both Trump and China’s people that they can and will fight back.
Tensions over Taiwan will likely rise, though a true crisis remains unlikely in 2025. But Trump administration actions targeting the Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy and visas for Chinese students will further inflame tensions.
Technology policy will be the true frontline in this conflict, Bremmer and Kupchan assert. China’s leaders insist that Washington wants to stunt China’s technological growth to protect the US position as world No. 1. Battles over trade and investment in everything from semiconductors to critical minerals will erupt in 2025.
4. Trumponomics
In January, Trump will inherit a robust US economy. Output has risen above pre-pandemic trends, unemployment remains near 4%, and an inflation rate nearing the Federal Reserve’s 2% target encourages investors to expect interest rate cuts. But Bremmer and Kupchan warn that Trump’s policies will bring higher inflation and lower growth in 2025.
First, Trump will significantly hike tariffs to correct “unfair” practices and reduce America’s trade deficit, which he views as intrinsically bad for the country. When US consumers face fewer affordable options on many goods, inflation will rise again, leaving interest rates higher and slowing growth. The dollar will strengthen, the report forecasts, making US exports less competitive. Some countries targeted by Trump will retaliate with measures that hurt American exporters and raise the risk of a disruptive global trade war.
Second, there is Trump’s immigration policy, which could deport up to 1 million people in 2025, Bremmer and Kupchan argue, and as many as five million over the course of his four-year term. Reduced illegal immigration and mass deportations will shrink the US workforce, drive up wages and consumer prices, and reduce the productive capacity of the economy, they insist, and legal immigration won’t fill the gap.
5. Russia still rogue
Russia is now the world’s leading rogue power by a large margin, the report’s authors argue, and Vladimir Putin will pursue more policies that undermine the US-led global order, despite a likely ceasefire in Ukraine. Russia will take hostile action against EU countries with cyber, sabotage, and other “asymmetric attacks,” and will build on its strategic military partnership with Iran and North Korea in 2025.
Donald Trump will likely achieve the ceasefire in Ukraine he has promised, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky needs a halt to a war his country is slowly losing. Russia is advancing on the battlefield, but 600,000 Russian casualties and three years of sanctions give Putin good reason to cut a ceasefire deal with Trump. The agreement's terms, Bremmer and Kupchan predict, will freeze forces in place and leave Russia in de facto control of conquered territory. Both sides will rearm, and sporadic fighting will continue along the line of control, the report forecasts. The fragile ceasefire will probably continue through 2025, “but not much longer.”
Yet, the ceasefire itself will create new problems beyond Ukraine. The Nordics, the Baltic countries, and Poland will support a Ukrainian military buildup during the ceasefire. France, Germany, Italy, and others will likely provide security guarantees to Ukraine and bolster Ukrainian and EU defenses. EU sanctions on Russia will remain in place, giving Putin more reason to interfere in their domestic politics, just as they used cyber and other tools to interfere in Romania’s election in November 2024 and in the US too, according to US officials. Bremmer and Kupchan predict Putin will continue attempts at sabotage and even assassination in many Western countries, and continue to use Telegram to instill pro-Kremlin views in citizens of European countries.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in December that Moscow was “preparing for long-term confrontation, with Ukraine and with us.” Russia will do more than any other country to subvert the global order in 2025.
For the rest of the Top Risks 2025, read the full report here.
Disclaimer: Willis Sparks has contributed to these Top Risks reports for the past 20 years.
- Ian Bremmer explains the 10 Top Risks of 2025 - GZERO Media ›
- Unpacking the biggest global threats of 2025 - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: The Top Geopolitical Risks of 2025, a live conversation with Ian Bremmer and global experts - GZERO Media ›
- What happens when no one’s in charge - GZERO Media ›
- Top Risks 2025: America's role in the crumbling global order - GZERO Media ›
This is the twenty-fifth time that Vladimir Putin has greeted the new year as ruler of Russia. To mark the occasion, he takes a look back at just how far he has come. Do you remember what was on the billboard charts when he first took power? #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more of GZERO's award-winning PUPPET REGIME series!
-Chinese visitors talk with education consultants at the booth of the United States during an expo in Beijing, China, 25 March 2017.
First, they came for the H-1B visa. Now, MAGA activists are pushing to end the US’ Optional Practical Training, or OPT, program, calling it a“guest worker program” that acts as a backdoor to the H-1B and threatens American jobs.
What is OPT? The program was introduced in 1947 to allow foreign students to work in the US if their employment was required or recommended by their school. Initially, the program was designed for short-term, practical training, but itwas extended for STEM grads in 2008 from 12 to 29 months and again in 2018 for up to 36 months. It is widely used bystudents from India: In 2023-24, 42.9% of Indian students in the US were pursuing mathematics or computer science, while 24.5% were enrolled in engineering programs.
What would happen if the US OPT-ed out? Ending OPT would impact the nearly 350,000 students who qualify for the program every year, particularly in STEM fields, and cause a cash crunch for universities reliant on high international tuition fees. It would affect businesses in tech, health care, and engineering, industries that attract the most OPT candidates. Opponents claim, however, that the US has no STEM worker shortage and that ending the program would provide more work for homegrown grads. So far, Elon Musk has not waded into the OPT fray, but we’re waiting.
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks to reporters, announcing that he intends to step down as Liberal Party leader and prime minister from his Rideau Cottage residence in Ottawa, Canada, on Jan. 6, 2025.
Justin Pierre James Trudeau’s political life began in the cradle. Born Christmas Day, 1971, to Margaret Sinclair and Pierre Elliott Trudeau, Canada’s 15th prime minister, their eldest son grew up in the spotlight and an atmosphere of privilege. Now, he’s out in the cold, abandoned by his closest allies and maligned by his opponents as Canada, too, joins the global anti-incumbent mood.
Rise to power
As a young man, Trudeau taught drama and snowboarding, but in 2000, his emotional eulogy at his father’s funeral put him on the radar as a future leader. Trudeau delivered public speeches, engaged in advocacy, andmet and married media personality Sophie Gregoire in 2005; the pair were promptly dubbed “the Kennedys of Canada.”
In 2007, Trudeau sought and wonthe party’s nomination in Papineau, a blue-collar Montreal riding that was not a safe Liberal seat, but that he took by just over 1,000 votes in the 2008 election. Trudeau chose Papineau to silence critics who dismissed him as a political lightweight, trading on his family name. He subsequently made headlines again as a young MP in 2012 when he wona charity boxing match against Conservative Sen. Patrick Brazeau. The triumph was unexpected, but it and the Papineau victory highlighted one of Trudeau’s key political qualities: his ability to win when the odds are stacked against him.
The events also positioned Trudeau as a leading contender for the Liberal leadership, which he won in 2013, handily defeating more seasoned political rivals. Trudeau’s message of “hope and hard work” and telegenic appeal galvanized the demoralized base of the third-place Liberals, promising renewal.
Trudeau carried his “Sunny Ways” mantra forward to the 2015 federal election. His focus on youth, diversity, and progressive policies offered a sharp contrast to Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government, suffering from voter fatigue after nine years in power. The Liberalssurged from third place to win a majority government, with Trudeau becoming Canada’s 23rd Prime Minister.
Progressive achievements
Trudeau’s tenure began with sweeping promises: climate action, reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, electoral reform, and restoring Canada’s global standing. His gender-parity Cabinet,“because it’s 2015” made him the standard bearer for progressivism at home and abroad. The Liberals introduced the Canada Child Benefit, cut middle-class taxes, and legalized recreational cannabis. On the international stage, Trudeau championed multilateralism, free trade, and feminism, curating a swoon-worthy, media-friendly brand as the heir apparent to liberals such asoutgoing US President Barack Obama.
Trudeau won two subsequent elections in 2019 and 2021, though with diminished mandates. His signature initiatives included a national carbon tax, the renegotiation of NAFTA (USMCA) in 2018, the advancement of LGBTQ+ rights, legalized assisted dying, and stronger gun control. To maintain the support of the New Democratic Party for his current minority government, he also enacted a national $10-a-day daycare and free dental care for children, the elderly, and the disabled, and paved the way for a national pharmacare program.
Creeping failures
However, Trudeau’s tenure is also marred by broken promises and ethical lapses. His failure to implement electoral reform and maintain “modest” deficitsalienated both left- and right-wing segments of his base. TheSNC-Lavalin political interference scandal in 2019, coupled with Trudeau’s lavish vacations and the emergence of a series of blackface photos from his youth, further damaged his credibility on ethical and racial issues.
Indigenous leaders accused him ofnot making meaningful progress on reconciliation, while frustration over inflation, housing costs, and an overstretched healthcare system have fueled public anger. Trudeau also greenlighted immigration policies that saw millions of newcomers enter the country between 2022 and 2024, further straining the country’s already scarce housing supply.
On the international front, Canada’s relationship with China deteriorated following the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. Canada’s relationship with India also suffered following accusations by Trudeau that the government of Narendra Modi masterminded the assassination of a Khalistani terrorist on Canadian soil. A recent public inquiry also revealed foreign interference in the Canadian electoral system, with accusations that Trudeau did not act on crucial information about his own MPs.
The black swans
Ultimately, Trudeau was undone by two black swans. The first was Donald Trump. The US president’s year-long tariff war with Canada in 2016 forced Trudeau to sideline domestic priorities to tackle the renegotiation of NAFTA. Trump’s Muslim ban also inspired Trudeau’s viral tweet welcoming refugees to Canada, which was followed by a surge in immigration and refugee claims – now a hot-button issue as anti-immigrant sentiment rises and the government backtracks on its welcoming policies.
The second swan was the COVID-19 pandemic. Trudeau drew initial praise for rapid financial relief programs, but also criticism for vaccine procurement delays and vaccine mandates. In 2022, Ottawa was occupied by a “Freedom Convoy,” which paralyzed the nation’s capital and saw Trudeau invoke the Emergencies Act, Canada’s equivalent of martial law. That event galvanized the Conservative opposition and contributed to the election of a new Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, Trudeau’s fiercest critic, who nowappears poised to replace Trudeau.
The end
By 2025, Justin Trudeau’s political career had come full circle. He rescued his party from its third-place finish in 2013, only to return it to a possible third – or even fourth-place finish – were an election to be held today. He once again found himself the object of derision by Trump, and also an object of rancor at home.
Then, after the shock resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 10, the dominoes began to fall inside the Liberal Party. With the looming threat of a non-confidence vote when Parliament resumes in January, three of the four Liberal regional caucuses demanded that Trudeau quit, and with a general caucus meeting set for this Wednesday, Trudeau finally decided the odds were insurmountable. On Jan. 6, 2025, he announced his plan to stand down as Liberal Party leader.
What’s next?
Trudeau leaves his party, and his country, with a very murky future. He has no obvious natural successor, and the timeline and process for a leadership campaign are not yet known. The Liberals’ organization is severely weakened – with the party practically non-existent west of Ontario – and their policy agenda is exhausted. According to Eurasia analyst Graeme Thompson, “Whoever ascends to the leadership may well face snap elections, and there is a real risk that the party could fall to third or even fourth place. It also faces the stark choice between pivoting back towards the political center or cementing its alliance with the leftist NDP.”
All this comes at a moment of considerable uncertainty for Canada, with the economy sputtering, tensions over immigration and the cost of living rising, Quebec separatism beginning to re-emerge, and Ottawa facing a new Trump administration that will drive a very hard bargain in trade talks, over border security, and on the broader foreign and defense policy front. If the Conservatives win the next election as expected, they will inherit serious challenges on several policy fronts, beginning with US-Canada relations and delivering on campaign promises to cut taxes, boost growth, and rein in the cost of living.
Trudeau’s full legacy will be judged in time. But for a leader who promised "Sunny Ways," his political twilight is anything but.
In December, Justin Trudeauwarned that dealing with President-elect Donald Trump would be “a little more challenging” than last time around.
With Trump threatening massive tariffs that would hit Canada hard, taking aim at the country’s anemic defense spending, criticizing its border policy, eyeing its fresh water, and more, 2025 will indeed be a rocky time for US-Canada relations. But Trudeau might not be around for much of it. Down in the polls and facing calls from a majority of his caucus to resign, Trudeau is mulling his future and could resign any day.
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievreis heavily favored to win the upcoming federal election, which would make Trump his challenge – a challenge Canadians, in fact, prefer the Conservative leader take on over his Liberal opponent.
Whoever leads Canada in the months to come, these are the top US-Canada issues they’ll be focused on:
1. Trade and tariffs
Trade between the US and Canada is worth over $900 billion a year, so the exchange of goods and services will be a top issue regardless of who’s in office. But Trump’s threat to levy a 25% tariff on imports has taken it to another level. The tariffs would raise prices in the US and hit Canadian industry, particularly the energy, automotive, and manufacturing sectors, with added costs. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce predicts the tariffs, and Canadian retaliation, would cost Canada roughly CA$78 billion – 2.6% of its GDP – a year and lead to recession. Canadian exports to the US would plummet, says the Chamber, with a predicted 60% drop in the mining and quarrying industries, 39% in m0tor vehicles, and 27% in metals – which would be costly for both countries. Ontario, the country’s most populous province and home to its auto sector, would be hit especially hard – which is why Premier Doug Ford is threatening to stop energy exports to the US if Trump proceeds with his plan.
The economic harm to Canada would be exacerbated by the fact that Ottawa would likely respond with its own retaliatory duties. The Trudeau government is working to secure an exemption from the policy for Canada but hasn’t managed to yet. But energy experts say they expect the tariffs won’t apply to Canadian oil either way.
Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice, says Trump’s tariff threat is real but also part of the incoming president’s strategy. He’s trying to gain concessions on issues of concern, including border security and the (very limited) flow of fentanyl from north to south, and the US trade deficit with Canada ahead of the looming renegotiation of the USMCA.
Thompson notes that Canada is in a weak bargaining position given that it’s utterly dependent on its trade relationship with the US, “and for that reason, doesn’t have a lot of cards to play.” He also expects that even if Canada does secure an exemption on tariffs, Trump will be prepared to threaten them again in the future as leverage in any given negotiation.
“This is not a one-and-done,” Thompson says. “I think this is a mode of operations that will repeat several times for the next four years over a variety of issues.”
2. A (metaphorical?) border wall
Trump has made border security central to his tariff threat, arguing that the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants across the border poses a public safety threat to the US. Canada is already developing a border security plan to respond to Trump’s concerns. It’s also scrambling to prepare for a possible rise in asylum claims – which will exacerbate the current backlog – and irregular border crossings if Trump goes ahead with his plan for mass deportations.
Canada was already revising its immigration policy before Trump won, but it may introduce further restrictions – and continue to toughen its rhetoric – in the coming months. After Trump’s win, Immigration Minister Marc Miller said “not everyone is welcome” to go to Canada, emphasizing that his government was ready to work with the Trump administration on border security. At the same time, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said Canada was sticking to its new immigration plan, which would see fewer newcomers admitted to the country.
The Trudeau government reduced its immigration targets in October and cut the number of international students it welcomes. Its border security plan includes CA$1.3 billion in spending around five pillars that include a commitment to “detecting and disrupting the fentanyl trade” and “minimizing unnecessary border volumes,” including an end to flagpoling – or allowing temporary residents to leave the country (typically to the US) and return immediately to access immigration services at the border. But that may not be enough.
Thompson says leaders of the current government are “overestimating their ability to manage what is coming.” He notes future demands from Trump could include “tighter screening of regular immigrants into Canada. That means that much like with tariffs, the Canadian government may end up managing cascading demands from Trump, so no single promise or plan will likely be sufficient to placate the incoming US president.
3. Defense spending and securing the Arctic
US administrations, including Biden’s, have pressured Canada to increase its defense spending and hit NATO’s 2% of GDP target for years. In April, the Trudeau government outlined a plan to boost spending, focused in large part on building armed forces capacity in the Arctic. The new initiatives total roughly CA$81 billion over two decades and will push the country toward 1.76% of GDP by 2030. In December, the government announced a further adjustment to its Arctic presence, which will include more air and naval equipment, and a renewed cooperation strategy in the region with the US in the face of Russian and Chinese regional interests.
So far, Trump administration officials and other Republicans seem unimpressed with Canada’s defense plan. Former Trump ambassador to Canada, Kelly Craft, said the country could “do better.” That means spending more – and faster – especially since Trump has reportedly considered asking NATO allies to spend a whopping 5% of GDP on defense spending. He’s also threatened to leave countries that fail to spend more to fend for themselves against foreign aggression.
Philippe Lagassé, associate professor and Barton Chair at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, says Canada could raise military spending by increasing pay, boosting operations expenditures, and contracting more for services. He says procurement of military hardware would take longer. But in the face of financial constraints, such new spending would require raising taxes, growing the deficit, cutting other programs, or some combination of the three – which could prove a challenge for the current government or its eventual replacement.
Arctic defense may prove to be a smoother issue. “The US has been trying to get Canada to do more in the region for a while,” Lagassé says, “and we've responded to that. I don’t see that as a point of tension.”
“If anything,” he adds, “the US will be glad if we just get our act together because their sovereignty considerations up there are less than ours, and they have capabilities up there that we don’t, but they do want us to actually get our act together around it.”
So, while Canada may feel the pressure on defense spending – and may need to come up with a faster, heftier plan to placate Trump, it can always point to progress in the Arctic and is likely to do so.
4. Water, water everywhere?
In September, Trump floated an idea to solve California’s drought problems: import water from British Columbia. As Trump put it, the province has “a very large faucet” that, once turned, could supply drought-stricken US states with fresh water. Experts point out that Canada doesn’t, in fact, have water to spare, and Canada can’t just turn on a “faucet” to divert water to the US.
The water Trump referred to, coming from the Columbia River, is already spoken for, in part through an existing treaty between the US and Canada – the Columbia River Treaty, which sets out rules governing flood controls, dams, and hydroelectric power generation.
That arrangement is in the process of being modernized to account for new developments, including climate change. The Biden administration and the Trudeau government recently reached an agreement in principle after years of work that began during the first Trump administration. But this time around, should Trump decide to maintain an interest in water flows north to south, the terms of the treaty could – like free trade – come back up for negotiation, with the faucet on the table.
5. Critical minerals. It’s in the name
The US and Canada share several other areas of cooperation and competition, but one is of immediate interest that could incentivize working together. Both countries are spending big on critical mineral development, including co-investments in a development in Yukon.
Critical minerals are central to cellular phones, the electric vehicle industry – in which both the US and Canada are investing heavily – and national defense. So whatever other tensions shape US-Canada relations, cooperation on critical minerals will remain a shared goal, especially as the two countries look to rival Chinese and Russian interests in related sectors.
6. Setting limits on Big Tech
Both countries are also taking on big tech giants, such as Google, through anti-monopoly investigations lawsuits. Still, the US is pushing Canada to drop its 3% digital services tax on big tech companies, including Google’s parent company Alphabet. The Biden administration requested a dispute resolution process for the tax, claiming it unfairly targets big US tech firms. The Trump administration is likely to press the issue, too, which may leave the policy as a pawn in one set of negotiations – say, over tariffs – or another.
Does Canada have any leverage to rely on? Canada has some cards to play against Trump, but it’s not clear who’ll be playing them. The Trudeau government, down roughly 25 points in the polls, is not long for this world – and Trudeau himself may resign any day. The country is due for an election by the fall, but it could come much earlier.
Regardless of who’s in power, however, they’ll likely deploy the playbook from the last time Canada had to manage its relationship with Trump. That means working contacts in states, particularly border states in which the Republicans have an interest in winning or currently govern and contacts in Washington. Then, they work the message about Canadian, and shared, interests up to Trump. There’s also the threats of retaliatory tariffs and halting certain trade, like Ford’s threat to cut off energy to border states.
Together, pulling these levers may yield some results, but Canada is in for tough negotiations and is unlikely to emerge from them unscathed.
Remembering Jimmy Carter's foreign policy legacy: Ian Bremmer looks back
Jimmy Carter, the 39th President of the United States, has died at the age of 100. A one-term president whose administration was marred by inflation, a gas crisis, and the Iranian hostage standoff, Carter went on to have one of the most illustrious post-presidencies in American history. Here's a remembrance from Ian Bremmer on President Carter’s foreign policy legacy.
Sorry elves, not even the North Pole will be spared by America’s trade war. #PUPPETREGIME
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