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Graphic Truth
US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy is sounding the alarm that drinking alcohol is linked to cancer, and he’s calling for a rethink on the federal government’s guideline for how much alcohol is safe to drink. Right now, US government guidelines recommend that men consume no more than two drinks per day, and women have no more than one.
His call comes at the right time for Dry January when many choose to forego alcohol and focus on New Year’s resolutions. But the effort comes at the wrong time for the restaurant industry, which depends on alcohol sales to make a profit, especially as food and labor costs rise, and as inflation-weary diners are cutting back on eating out.
But consumers may already be heeding his warning. According to the WHO and the CIA’s Factbook, both Canadians and Americans have cut back on their drinking since booze consumption surged during the pandemic.
The US government currently raises about $5 trillion a year in revenue. That plus another $2 trillion in debt are what make up the nearly $7 trillion that Uncle Sam spends annually.
But where does that revenue actually come from? Here’s a look at the breakdown.
Bear in mind, as you look at this, that incoming US president Donald Trump has suggested he wants to replace the income tax with his new tariffs. Would that be possible?
It’s true that until the income tax was implemented in the early 20th century, tariffs provided the lion’s share of US government revenue. But that was a time before social security, medicare, or a modern military when the government spent barely $500,000 a year.
With Trump’s tariffs expected to raise, at best, about $300 billion per year, using them to replace income taxes would entail an unfathomably radical shrinking of the US federal government.
Graphic Truth: Are families earning enough to buy homes?
President-elect Donald Trump has promised to loosen building regulations and deport millions of undocumented immigrants to increase the supply of homes. Meanwhile, after promising to build 3.9 million homes by 2031 back in April, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau replaced his housing minister with Nathaniel Erskine-Smith in December. Erskine-Smith has yet to propose any additional policies to solve the crisis.
In 2023, the average Canadian home cost $670,389, more than 10 times the average Canadian annual income. In 2003, for comparison, a home cost just 5.8 times the average household income. And in the US, median household income increased by about 60% between 2000 and 2020, while the average price of a home nearly doubled.
Small wonder that people in both countries are increasingly pessimistic about the prospect of homeownership. A Gallup survey from May found the vast majority of Americans (76%) say it’s a bad time to buy a house. It seems that on both sides of the border, more and more people are giving up on ever owning a home.
Here’s a look at the increase in home prices and median household income in Canada and the US, from 2000 to 2020. We have to ask: Is homeownership even a dream worth pursuing now? We’d love to hear your thoughts. Write to us here.
American trust in its judicial system has fallen dramatically, plummeting away from other wealthy nations. New Gallup data shows American confidence in courts hitting a record low of 35% in 2024, placing it far behind the median of OECD countries where majority trust remains intact. The 20-point gap between US and OECD median trust levels in 2024 marks the widest divide since tracking began in 2006.
The 24-percentage-point decline over four years represents one of the steepest drops globally, rivaling decreases seen in countries experiencing political upheaval like Myanmar and Venezuela. This places the United States in concerning company, especially since dramatic institutional trust declines typically coincide with significant political instability or civil unrest.
The erosion of confidence spans political lines, though following different patterns. Among those disapproving of current leadership, trust fell from 46% to 29% since 2021, possibly because of Donald Trump supporters disagreements with the federal indictments brought against him for hush money, racketeering, and Jan. 6. Even more striking, those approving of leadership maintained steady confidence around 62% until 2024, when it dropped sharply to 44%, possibly reflecting dissatisfaction with the immunity Supreme Court ruling which favored Trump.
Cost of Christmas Trees over time
Bah humbug! Christmas tree prices are up again in 2024, with the American Christmas Tree Association reporting that the average price has risen 10% over the last year. However, growers have reported steady demand since the pandemic, and supply is holding strong despite drought conditions and wildfires in recent months on the East Coast. That being said, location matters. Urban areas will see higher prices than rural regions.
The number of US Christmas tree farms fell sharply during the 2008 financial crisis and has continued to decline — so much so that 10% of the Christmas trees sold in the US come from Canada. Christmas trees take eight to 10 years to grow, making it difficult to start new farms and even harder to turn a profit. Inflation has raised the cost of fertilizer and fuel, and these costs are being passed on to consumers.
Meanwhile, prices for fake trees, which 78% of consumers polled said they intend to buy, are also up $5 on average this year. But fake trees have a far greater range of prices, with some costing as much as $1,000.
Environmental economics. Interestingly, the environmental calculus favors chopping down real trees over manufacturing plastic replicas. Researchers suggest that reusing an artificial tree three to five times can reduce carbon footprint, but each real tree purchase supports forest ecosystems and local farmers.
Supporters of the current threshold say it streamlines trade, particularly in a world in which e-commerce is soaring. But critics point out that the US threshold is way higher than anyone else’s, and that foreign exporters often exploit that to evade import duties and inspections.
Chinese e-commerce exporters in particular use de minimis rules to skirt US tariffs, while drug cartels ship fentanyl to the US in a similar way. Someone even tried to import a helicopter from Venezuela by breaking it up into small packages labeled as “personal effects.”
The Biden administration recently cracked down on Chinese exporters’ abuse of de minimis thresholds, and the incoming Trump administration is certain to hit this issue even harder.
Here’s a snapshot of how the US threshold compares globally, along with a look at the massive rise in de minimis shipments to the US over the past 10 years.
Although high grocery bills may have contributed to the Democrats’ losses in the US election on Nov. 5, Americans can be grateful that the cost of their upcoming Thanksgiving dinner is, in fact, declining. Prices for the holiday’s traditional staples have fallen for a second consecutive year.
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the average cost of a Thanksgiving meal for 10 people is projected to be $58.08 in 2024. That’s 5% lower than last year’s bill of $61.17 and down from a record high of $64.05 in 2022. Still, prices remain 19% higher they were in 2019, on the eve of the pandemic.
Key contributors to this year’s price drop include significant reductions in the costs of sweet potatoes (down 26.2%) and turkey (down 5.6%) after previous spikes. Some items like dinner rolls and fresh cranberries have seen price increases, as have the costs of eggs and chicken, owing to recent outbreaks of bird flu.
The drop in turkey prices is due in part to a decline in demand, as Americans increasingly choose other proteins to be the centerpiece of their meal. As a result, farmers raised only 205 million of the birds in 2024, down 6% from 2023, marking the lowest level since 1985.