GZD 10/02/2024

What We’re Watching: Biden visits Helene devastation, Israeli leader mulls next move, Ukraine loses control of key town, Prosecutors accuse Trump of crimes in Jan. 6 case

Disaster and democracy: How Helene could sway the vote in battleground states

With just over a month before Election Day, Hurricane Helene – which killed at least 125 people and left disaster zones in 66 counties across the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida – could affect the vote.

The storm has halted mail service and disrupted absentee voting. Thousands of polling stations are flooded or inaccessible, with early voting already underway in North Carolina.

The portion of the Tar Heel State most affected by the storm contains almost 1 million voters. In 2020, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in North Carolina by fewer than 80,000 votes, his smallest margin of victory in any state. Asheville, one of the strongest hit areas, is a Democratic stronghold. But outside of that, the storm disproportionately affected rural counties where Trump has the advantage – and may have the most to lose.

It also gives the current administration a reason to shower these swing states with aid and attention. President Joe Biden visited North Carolina on Wednesday and has deployed 1,000 US soldiers to assist in recovery efforts. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is in Georgia to discuss recovery. That being said, if their response is seen as insufficient, Harris could be punished at the polls.

Eurasia Group’s US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith says that he is watching out for two things: “whether there is a negative public reaction to the floods in a way that hurts the incumbent party, i.e. Harris, and whether we do see any signs this will depress turnout in rural areas.”

Were you impacted by the hurricane? Please share your story with us here.

Russia captures key Ukrainian town

Ukrainian officials acknowledged on Wednesday that Russian forces had taken the hilltop town ofVuhledar in the past few days. There are several reasons why this development matters for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The seizure of this town demonstrates Russia’s determination to exert its advantage over Ukrainian forces in both manpower and firepower. Russian troops tried and failed to take this town at least four times over the past two and a half years, at a great cost to Russian lives.

It also demonstrates that Russian commanders and fighters are learning as they go. Instead of trying to take the town head-on, as they’ve done multiple times here and elsewhere in eastern Ukraine, the Russians first took smaller towns to the east and west before moving on Vuhledar from both sides. Thisflanking maneuver helped make the retreat from the town by Ukrainian forces more chaotic and bloodier than past troop withdrawals. Russians are trying similar approaches in other target areas.

Vuhledar is astrategically important town in Donetsk province in Ukraine’s Donbas region because it stands close to a rail line that links Russian-occupied Crimea with the eastern Donbas region.

Finally, the loss of this town brings Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, a step closer to tough choices about where to continue the fight in this region and where to concede. But it also gives him another argument to make with Ukraine’s Western allies in his bid to win more military and financial support.

Netanyahu escalates, buoyed by strong backing at home

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be on a roll.

Over the past week, Israel has pummeled Hezbollah targets across Lebanon – killing more than a thousand people in the process – assassinated the group’s leader, blown up a Houthi port in Yemen, and launched Israel’s first ground invasion of its northern neighbor since 2006. All of this as Israeli forces continue to pound the Gaza Strip.

Now, the Israeli leader is threatening to make Iran “pay a price” for its ballistic missile barrage of Tuesday night.

One reason why Netanyahu is so emboldened? This stuff is popular with his people. A new poll by the Israel Democracy Institute shows 80% of Israelis, and 90% of Israeli Jews, support the campaign to cripple longtime nemesis Hezbollah and reestablish security in northern Israel, where the militant group’s rocket fire has displaced roughly 60,000 Israelis.

A separate study conducted by Direct Polls shows support for Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud Party jumped after the recent pager attacks against Hezbollah, reaching pre-Oct. 7, 2023, levels for the first time.

This is a big turnaround. Even before the Hamas attacks last October, Netanyahu was on the ropes over corruption charges and his controversial judicial reforms, which sparked months of protests. Then, his support cratered as he was blamed for Israel’s worst-ever security failure, and because of divisions over whether to prioritize freeing the hostages or “destroying” Hamas.

But the ever-wily Netanyahu has now pivoted from divisive issues to unifying ones, tapping into a sense of siege and cohesion among Israeli Jews that transcends other political differences.

This is heady stuff, but how far is Netanyahu willing to escalate in a region that is already on the brink of a wider war?

Trump’s Jan. 6 acts were personal, not presidential, prosecutor argues

In a court filing unsealed on Wednesday, special counsel Jack Smith said Donald Trump “resorted to crimes” in an effort to retain power despite losing the 2020 election, including pressuring then-Vice President Mike Pence not to certify electoral votes. Smith is trying to persuade Judge Tanya Chutkan that the former president’s actions were of a personal nature, and thus don’t fall under the sweeping protections for presidential acts the Supreme Court granted earlier this year.

The unsealed documents recount a Nov. 12, 2020, meeting between Trump and Pence where the vice president attempted to deflect pressure from Trump by offering avenues for deescalation and a peaceful transfer of power. “Don’t concede but recognize the process is over,” Pence told him, urging Trump to instead run again in 2024. According to the filing, Trump replied that he was not willing to wait.

If Smith is successful, the acts in question may remain a part of the indictment against Trump as the case moves forward. If not, the government has a harder case to make. Either way, there will be no resolution before the November election — and if Trump wins, well, all bets on Smith’s case are off.

Rat King speaks out about NYC Mayor Eric Adams

New Yorkers of all stripes are talking about Mayor Eric Adams’ unprecedented federal indictment on corruption charges. But you’ll never guess why Hizzoner’s sworn enemy is showing a certain sympathy. See the latest episode of our award-winning puppet satire show PUPPET REGIME here.

Hard Numbers: Taiwan prepares for treacherous Typhoon, Benin crushes alleged coup attempt, Vietnamese sailors injured in South China Sea clash, Old US bomb makes a bang in Japan

2: At least two people are dead in Taiwan, and 70 injured, from weather attributed to Typhoon Krathon, which is expected to make landfall on the densely populated west coast of the Island on Thursday. Thousands have been evacuated from areas at risk of floods or landslides. One elderly man fell off a ladder while pruning a tree near his house in preparation for the storm, and another crashed into fallen rocks while driving. Western Taiwan is usually sheltered from major storms by its east coast mountain ranges and Taipei has put 40,000 troops on standby for expected rescue operations.

2: Two high-profile Beninese political figures were arrested on Tuesday on suspicion of plotting a coup against President Patrice Talon, allegedly having attempted to bribe the head of the Republican Guard. Benin is one of the most stable democracies in West Africa — even the communist dictatorship that ruled 1975-1990 handed over power peacefully — and was not previously believed to be at risk of extralegal regime change.

40: Vietnamese media reported Wednesday that some Vietnamese fishermen were severely injured in a clash near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea after around 40 foreign sailors boarded their vessels and beat the crews with iron bats on Sunday. The hull numbers of the alleged aggressors correspond with local Chinese maritime patrols, and Beijing confirmed an operation against Vietnamese fishermen near the Paracels but denied Hanoi’s version of events.