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GZERO Explains: Why is Trump fighting South Africa over its land policy?
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa looks on during the 55th annual World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, Switzerland, January 21, 2025.
President Donald Trump has said that he will cut all US funding to South Africa, accusing the government there of confiscating land and “treating certain classes of people very badly,” an allegation South African President Cyril Ramaphosa denies.
What is Trump talking about? Last month, South Africa passed the Expropriation Act, which aims to address severe racial imbalances in land ownership. Thirty years after the fall of Apartheid, three quarters of private farmland is held by whites, who comprise less than 10% of the population. The new act repeals an Apartheid era law that was used to expropriate Black farmers.
What does the bill say? It facilitates the government purchase of unused or abandoned land, provided that “just and equitable” compensation is given. But it also, in the “public interest”, allows land to be expropriated without compensation if the property is abandoned and the landowner can’t be reached, or if it is being used for criminal activity.
What’s the controversy? Critics say this latter provision violates the South African constitution’s protections for private property. AfriForum, a South African lobbying group that acts on behalf of white Afrikaans speakers, recently briefed Trump on the bill. Elon Musk, who hails from South Africa, has also said the bill threatens South Africa’s white minority.
What happens if Trump pulls funding from South Africa? From a geopolitical perspective, “not much,” says Eurasia Group Africa Practice Head Amaka Anku, “the funding in question is about $440 million to South Africa’s HIV program, which is not significant enough to make South Africa retaliate.”
Still, that funding accounts for nearly a fifth of South Africa’s total HIV program funding. In a country with the largest HIV-positive population in the world, the human consequences could be significant.
Elon Musk departs the office of Senate Minority Whip and incoming Senate Republican Leader-elect John Thune (R-SD) after a meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S. December 5, 2024.
How will it work? The executive order requires every federal agency to hire at least four DOGE employees – a team lead, engineer, human resources specialist, and attorney – to identify potential spending, regulations, or jobs that can be slashed. Musk has said he aims to cut $2 trillion from the $6.75 trillion federal budget. How it will determine what can be cut has not been made public.
Can DOGE actually fire people? Right now, DOGE appears likely to operate in an advisory capacity to the White House, making recommendations to the Trump administration on where cuts might be made. When Trump implemented a hiring freeze on Jan. 20, he ordered the Office of Personnel and Management to work with DOGE to reduce the size of the government. Then, on Jan. 21, 2025, Trump reinstated Schedule F – a policy he tried to implement during his first term, only to see it rescinded by Joe Biden — reclassifying some policy-level federal employees as “at-will” employees. This strips them of some protections and makes it easier for Trump and his appointees to dismiss them.
Since then, anonymous reports from OPM employees claim that the agency is reporting to and issuing communications from DOGE staffers, making it appear that the two offices are working closely to reduce the number of federal employees.
Why does it matter? DOGE wants to modernize, and minimize, the federal government, which employed 2,260,ooo civilian employees as of 2023. However, it is expected to face backlash from judges, unions, federal employees, and the beneficiaries of services or agencies that are sent to the chopping block.
Then-President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk watch the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket in Brownsville, Texas, in November 2024.
It’s not a reality TV show, but it sure feels like one. On Tuesday, the US government kickstarted a plan to slash the public service by offering a “deferred resignation program” to approximately two million civilian full-time federal employees. The offer came in the form of an email from the Office of Personnel Management, or OPM, with the subject line, “A Fork in the Road,” similar to one sent by X CEO Elon Musk to Twitter employees after he acquired the company in 2022. Musk was behind the effort, which reportedly blindsided some of President Donald Trump's advisers and budget officials.
What’s the deal? Employees who choose to resign by Feb. 6 would receive eight months of salary and benefits, remaining on the payroll until Sept. 30, possibly with reduced or eliminated responsibilities, and without having to work in person. Recipients were asked to respond to a government email address and type the word “Resign” if they accepted. They were also told that if they did not quit, there was no guarantee their job might not be eliminated in the future.
Who’s in the crosshairs? The OPM said the offer was available to “all full-time federal employees,” apart from those working in the post office, military, or on immigration or national security.
Why is this happening? During his campaign, Trump promised to radically cut the size of government and appointed Musk to head the Department for Government Efficiency. But Trump is also seeking to root out the “deep state” and remove opponents to his agenda within the civil service. The American Federation of Government Employees says the program pressures employees perceived as disloyal to leave.
In that vein, Trump also signed an executive order on his first day entitled “Schedule Career/Policy,” which reclassifies thousands of civil servants as political appointees, removing job security and making it easier to hire and fire them. Trump signed a similar order, Schedule F, late in his first term, but it was rescinded by Joe Biden when the former president took office.
Can Trump (or Musk) do this? As president, Trump has the authority to propose and implement workforce restructuring within the federal government. However, his actions must comply with federal laws and regulations. That includes standards enforced by the US Merit Systems Protection Board, which require managers to justify disciplinary actions like firings and give employees the right to respond before any action is taken.
But aren’t these “voluntary” resignations? The government is framing them this way and has various tools available. These include:
- Voluntary Early Retirement Authority: This allows employees to retire before meeting the standard age and service requirements, and is usually used during restructuring or downsizing, such as when an agency is eliminated.
- Voluntary Separation Incentive Payments: This policy offers lump-sum payments to incentivize employees to voluntarily “separate” from the civil service via resignation or retirement. Trump’s current “deferred resignation program” appears to be a form of VSIP, albeit with a twist, in that employees may not have to have to perform their duties.
This led Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) to call the offer a trick, claiming the president would “stiff” workers. “The president has no authority to make that offer,” Kaine said. “There’s no budget line item to pay people who are not showing up for work.”
That concern is echoed by researcher Natasha Gaither of Eurasia Group, “The offer is structured in such a way that it will probably withstand legal scrutiny, as it purports to make use of the funds that would otherwise go to paying workers' salaries,” she says. But, she adds, “this arrangement relies on the tacit assumption that Congress will appropriate funds to cover all the currently eligible federal workers when the continuing resolution expires in March.”
“Basically, federal workers who take the buyout now will be placing their faith in GOP congressmen (and the Trump administration) that they will continue to receive deposits through September.”
What could the impact be? That depends on who accepts the offer. The broad range of employees affected means that anyone – from food inspectors to frontline health workers – could stop work and stay home, potentially impacting thousands of departments and services. For example, if statisticians at the FDA who oversee clinical trials quit, there would likely be an immediate slowdown in drug approvals. Losing medical staff at Veterans Affairs would undermine the functioning of hospitals and clinics and possibly force veterans to turn elsewhere.
One senior administration official estimated that 5-10% of federal workers might resign, saving the government $100 billion – but punching a big hole in the capacity of the civil service at the same time.