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The Canadian flag flies on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.
Canada’s foreign interference watchdog is warning that China, India, and Russia plan on meddling in the country’s federal election. The contest, which launched last weekend, has already been marked by a handful of stories about past covert foreign interventions and threats of new ones.
This week, the Globe and Mailreported allegations that India interfered in 2022 to help get Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre elected, though he was not aware of the efforts. They also broke news that former Liberal Party leadership candidate and member of Parliament Chandra Arya was banned from running for leader and reelection because of alleged interference tied, once again, to India.
Now, Canada’s election interference monitoring group is warning that China, India, and Russia will try to interfere in the current election.
Poilievre also accused Liberal leader Mark Carney of being cozy with Beijing due to a $276 million loan Brookfield Asset Management secured from the Bank of China when Carney was Chair of Brookfield’s board. Carney rejected those accusations and, on Wednesday, said that Canada should not pursue greater economic ties with China but should prioritize other Asian nations and Europe.
Other Canadian critics have complained that the US is interfering, citing Donald Trump consigliere Elon Musk’s public statements about the country. But officials say this doesn’t meet the bar for foreign interference. Neither, apparently, do the actions of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith,who recently admitted to Breitbartthat she pressed Trump administration officials to delay tariffs to help elect the Conservatives over the Liberals, since Poilievre would be “the best person” for the White House to deal with given that he would be “very much in sync with the new direction in America.”HARD NUMBERS: Measles on the rise, Tariffs drive steel layoffs, US consumer confidence drops, Tesla targeting investigated
Public Health nurse Lauri Bidinot demonstrates how to give a measles shot to a young girl at Southwestern Public Health in St. Thomas, Ontario, on Tuesday, March 4, 2025.
100,000: US President Donald Trump’s 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, in place since March 12, have triggered hundreds of layoffs in Canada in the metal workers sector, with more expected to come. Marty Warren, national director of the United Steelworkers, says that 100,000 jobs are at risk for the union’s 225,000 members after “full-blown” tariffs hit on April 2.
92.9: The Conference Board’s US consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9, short of its expected reading of 94.5 and its lowest level since January of 2021. Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business, and employment also plunged 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80, considered an indicator of a possible recession.
1,000: Police in Washington, DC, are offering a $1,000 reward for information about the recent defacing of Tesla vehicles in the city. A police statement also indicated that they are “investigating these offenses as potentially being motivated by hate or bias,” which is a broader category in DC than in most cities: “Political affiliation” is listed alongside race, sex, and religion as categories of bias for hate crimes and carries higher penalties than other crimes.Hunger and poverty are on the rise in both the United States and Canada, with food insecurity levels spiking dramatically in 2023 as COVID-19 assistance programs expired. That’s been compounded by rising food costs that have left millions struggling to put food on the table.
Canada witnessed a surge in food insecurity, jumping nearly 5 percentage points to 22.9% of the population living in food-insecure households between 2022 and 2023, according to the University of Toronto. According to the 2023 Hunger Count by Food Banks Canada, food banks recorded a record 1.9 million visits, representing a 32% increase compared to the previous year. Parents constituted the largest segment of food bank users, highlighting the acute challenges faced by families. Provincially, Newfoundland and Labrador experienced the highest rate of food insecurity, with 23% of households affected in 2022, followed closely by New Brunswick and Alberta both at 22%.
In the United States, 13.5% of households — approximately 18 million — faced food insecurity at some point during the year, marking a slight rise from 12.8% in 2022, according to a report by USDA. Among the states, Arkansas reported the highest prevalence of food insecurity, with 18.9% of households affected between 2021 and 2023.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies during his Senate Finance Committee confirmation hearing in January.
Last week, Donald Trump signed an executive order to dismantle the Department of Education after firing or laying off half its workforce, around 2,000 people. Now, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced his department of Health and Human Services will eliminate 10,000 full-time positions in addition to the 10,000 who’ve left voluntarily through early retirement offers. The HHS roster will drop from 82,000 to 62,000 employees, and its divisions will go from 28 to 15.
The Trump administration has promised to reduce the size of government, and it’s proceeding at pace. Kennedy is citing cost savings, at $1.8 billion a year, and streamlining a “dysfunctional” bureaucracy as reasons for the job cuts. But critics like Larry Leavitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF, a health policy organization, warn that such deep cuts affect the department’s capacity for oversight and program or service delivery.
Kennedy has set out to remake US health policy in line with his Make America Healthy Again movement. Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group, has said the MAHA movement is “a worldview that blends concerns about corporate influence on healthcare with skepticism towards mainstream medicine.” It also leans heavily on vaccine hesitancy, conspiracy theory, and alternative medicine.
“We aren’t just reducing bureaucratic sprawl,” Kennedy said in a statement about the restructuring. “We are realigning the organization with its core mission and our new priorities in reversing the chronic disease epidemic,” he added, confirming that MAHA is firmly the order of the day at HHS.Volkswagen export cars are seen at the port of Emden, Germany, beside a VW plant.
On Wednesday, ahead of what Donald Trump is calling “Liberation Day,” when the administration plans to unveil a series of “reciprocal” tariffs, the president signed an executive order levying 25% tariffs on automobiles and auto parts made outside the United States. The tariffs will come into effect on April 2.
The new tariffs will be applied on top of existing duties on materials such as steel. For Canada and Mexico, which are party to a free trade deal with the US and whose auto manufacturing industries are intimately connected to their American partners, the tariff will only be applied to the non-US content of a vehicle or its parts. Economist Jim Stanfordpoints out, however, that this means every consumer car and truck in the US will be tariffed since no vehicle is uniquely and entirely made in America.
Trump says his goal is to permanently shift auto manufacturing to the US. But countries affected by the tariffs are pushing back. After the announcement, Canada, the European Union, Japan, China, the United Kingdom, and Germany decried the move. Japan says it’s “putting all options on the table” in response, and the German economy minister is promising “a firm response” from the EU.
In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is on the campaign trail, called the tariffs a “direct attack” and said the country will defend its workers and industry, which accounts for over 600,000 direct and indirect domestic jobs. Carney canceled a Thursday campaign event to return to Ottawa to convene a meeting of his Cabinet Committee on Canada-US Relations. Earlier in the day, he promised that a reelected Liberal government would create a CA$2 billion fund to protect workers in the industry and to boost domestic manufacturing capacity, creating a “made-in-Canada” supply chain as the future of the continental auto industry remains in doubt.Canada’s Liberals and Conservatives are neck and neck as election begins, and running on similar promises
Canada’s federal election is on. The polls show a polarized contest between the Liberals and Conservatives, one dominated by Donald Trump and the question of who’s best-suited to deal with his tariff and annexation threats. Canadian nationalism has surged. The Liberal Party, recently down 25 points in the polls to the Conservatives, have seen their fortunes turn around under new leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney — a manwho’s been all too keen to, ahem, adapt ideas from his top rival.
Liberal, Tory, same old story?
A Trump-centric campaign risks obscuring other important policy issues. But how much does it matter when the two front-runners are so close together? So far, both parties — one of which is running on the slogan “Canada Strong” and the other on “Canada First” – have adopted similar proposals for a range of issues.
Both Liberal and Conservative campaigns launched with promises to cut personal income taxes. The Liberals are offering a 1% cut to the lowest bracket, and the Conservatives are putting forward a 2.25% cut. Both parties are also promising to cut federal sales taxes on new homes for first-time buyers, with Liberals including new builds worth as much as CA$1 million and the Conservatives ramping it all the way up to … $1.3 million, but they’ll expand eligibility to non-first-time buyers, including investors.
On defense, Carney is promising to spend 2% of GDP on the military by 2030 and expand Arctic security. Poilievre has promised more or less the same, with details to come. Both say they’ll speed up the building of energy infrastructure, including oil and gas pipelines, though Carney would keep a Trudeau-era emissions cap on the oil and gas sector, while Poilievre would not.
Affordability remains a major concern, even more so with tariffs threatening the economy. Poilievre even says he’d keep (though perhaps not expand) the Liberals’ public prescription drug, daycare, and dental care programs. Meanwhile, nearly a quarter of Canadians can’t afford food. In 2024, the Liberals launched a food lunch program, which the Conservatives attacked as a headline grab but didn’t outright oppose. The parties haven’t released more on food security and affordability yet, but they almost certainly will.
Can the Liberals rewrite the past?
While the Liberals are now led by Carney, with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gone, they’re still the same party that has governed for nearly a decade and earned ire from voters for policy shortcomings. With a policy agenda that, so far, looks similar to that of the Conservatives, the Liberals must persuade voters they’re not just better on policy, but that their guy is better on character and competence, and that his team is fit for purpose.
It’s a tricky task, and it’s fair to ask how much the Liberal Party has changed. Many top candidates and current Cabinet ministers are the same faces from Trudeau’s years, including Chrystia Freeland, Mélanie Joly, Dominic LeBlanc, Bill Blair, and François-Philippe Champagne. The Liberal surge even persuaded a handful of candidates who’d served in the caucus to run again after saying they were out under Trudeau, including high-profile players Anita Anand, Sean Fraser, and Nate Erskine-Smith.
When Carney announced his Cabinet just before he triggered the election, Conservatives were quick to point out that the group contained 87% of the same faces from Trudeau’s table. Among the faces are those who supported, just weeks earlier, policies Carney is now reversing, including the Liberals’ signature consumer carbon price and its planned increase to the capital gains inclusion rate (reversals Conservatives were calling for).
Canada’s “presidentialized” election
A leader-focused campaign in the face of Trump’s threats will, perhaps ironically, be thoroughly American. Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice, notes that the tricky thing for the Liberals is this is a change campaign, with voters looking to reset after the Trudeau years. Carney will have to present himself as that change – which could mean an intense focus on him as leader.
Thompson calls it a “presidentialized” campaign, one that comes with a risk for the neophyte Liberal leader. “It opens the question of Carney’s political experience, or rather lack thereof – and the fact that he has never run an election campaign before, let alone a national general election campaign. It’s an open question whether his political inexperience comes out in a negative way.”
But a focus on character could also set Carney apart from Poilievre, even if the two don’t have much daylight between them on policy. Voters see Carney as the best person to be prime minister, and he enjoys high favorability ratings — over half the country likes him. The Conservative Party leader, on the other hand, isn’t particularly well-liked, with his unfavorables sitting at 59%.
Promise now, worry later?
For all the talk of character, Conservatives, including Poilievre himself, have accused the Liberals of stealing their ideas. That’s a fair criticism. As Thompson puts it, the Liberals have caught the Conservatives out and, indeed, have adopted their positions. But how far will that take the Liberals? And at what cost?
“These are all Conservative policies that were being wielded against Trudeau,” Thompson says, “which Carney has now adopted as his own. And it’s shrewd politicking.” But it’s also risky. “If the Liberals win, they need to deliver very quickly on showing that this is a new government and that they have new policies. The honeymoon period would be, I think, quite short.”
The Liberals will be happy to worry about all of this later. For now, they’re the beneficiaries of an election in which the very issues that were set to spell their doom have become temporarily incidental to Trump and to questions of character and competence – questions to which voters seem to think Carney is the answer.
The policy challenges that got Liberals into trouble in the first place are still lurking and waiting to reassert themselves in short order. But for the Liberals, those are problems for another day.
Canadian PM Mark Carney
The countdown is on! On Sunday, Prime Minister Mark Carneydissolved parliament and called a snap federal election that promises to be one of the most consequential — and hotly contested — in recent Canadian history.
Until January, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives had maintained a two-year lead in opinion polls, which ran as high as 25% in December. But the resignation in January of unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, coupled with the return to power of US President Donald Trump, upended the race. It allowed new leader Carney, former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, to capitalize on his financial and governance experience in the face of anxiety about Trump’s tariffs and talk of annexation. The Liberals are now neck and neck with the Conservatives and even ahead in some polls.
With the election set for April 28, the Conservatives are scrambling to retool their message, notably on the carbon tax, which Carney has now set to zero for consumers but maintained for industrial emitters. They also question Carney’s ethics, claiming he has conflicts of interest stemming from his work as chair of Brookfield Asset Management. The New Democratic Party of Jagmeet Singh is feeling the squeeze as it attempts to hold onto progressive voters, while the Bloc Québécois of Yves-François Blanchet will fight to represent Quebec’s interests in the new parliament.
For news about outgoing GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon and his decision to run for the Liberals, click here.