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Justin Trudeau is leaving you, Donald Trump is coming for you.
The timing couldn’t be worse. The threat couldn’t be bigger. The solutions couldn’t be more elusive.
Canada and the US are headed for a serious and economically dangerous trade war in less than two weeks, and President-elect Donald Trump, seeing Canada in a vulnerable leadership moment, smells blood.
In politics, as in most things, there is no opponent more powerful than time and, after nine years in power, time crushed Justin Trudeau’s political career. The “Sunny Ways” majority government of 2015 for Trudeau gave way to the medieval darkness of his current minority government, beset by dire polls, recurring scandals, and painful internal betrayals. What happened?
In short, there were no new policy ideas to bring back the light. The list of victories that Trudeau mentioned in his resignation speech (some genuinely transformative, others still deeply divisive) — the Canada Child Benefit that lifted over 300,000 children out of poverty (child poverty rates in Canada are now going back up), the first G7 country to put a price on carbon, renegotiating NAFTA, leading the country through the pandemic, legalizing cannabis and medically assisted dying, negotiating a health accord with the provinces, bringing in universal daycare — all these were, in the end, not nearly enough. Politics is all about tomorrow, not yesterday, and the tomorrow promise of Trudeau, once his brand, was gone.
Since the pandemic, Trudeau has been, like incumbents around the world, on his back foot on the trinity of core issues galvanizing populist support: inflation, immigration, and housing prices. His policies to address these were reactive, well behind the instincts of the leader of the official opposition, Pierre Poilievre. It didn’t help that the fiscal guardrails Trudeau had set up were blown. The Liberals were more than CA$20 billion past their target ahead of the fall fiscal update, an update his finance minister was set to give on Dec. 16. Instead, she dropped a radioactive resignation letter that very morning, pointing to Trudeau’s fiscal strategies as “costly political gimmicks” — and laying bare the internal divisions within the Cabinet. He was out of supporters, out of ideas, and looked out of touch.
It finally ended on Monday, an icy Ottawa day with the kind of cold that you can almost grab with a gloved hand and snap over your knee. The prime minister stood alone in front of the cottage where he had done so many press conferences during the pandemic and where I recall sitting to interview a gray-bearded version of him on a similarly frigid winter day back in 2020. Now, he was notably different. Stripped of the pretense and dramatics that sometimes characterized his tenure, he presented a more authentic version of the man most Canadians had long ago lost sight of, telling them that he was resigning as leader and prime minister.
For a boy born on Christmas Day, the pathetic fallacies that marked Justin Trudeau’s life had one last small signal to send. Just before he left the shelter of the cottage to make his resignation announcement, a gust of wind suddenly blew his speech off the podium, papers scattering into the January air. It was over.
For his party, Trudeau’s departure could not come soon enough, and while Liberal Party leaders are still dithering on the rules for a leadership race, the math is cruel. Parliament is prorogued — suspended — until March 24, on Trudeau’s orders. There will be a confidence vote soon after, so expect a Canadian federal election to kick off immediately and run into May. In other words, Trudeau gave the next leader a short runway — more like a cliff. The next PM will barely have time to find the bathrooms and grab a cup of coffee before they will have to hit the hustings and try to climb out of the political hole that finds them 25 points behind the Conservatives.
For Canada, this could not come at a worse time. In less than two weeks, Trump will be sworn in as US president, and he has promised to slap Canada with 25% tariffs and use “economic force” to try to absorb the country as the 51st state.
As I wrote last year, Trump’s threat to absorb Canada as the 51st state has gone from a joke to a trial balloon — and it is quickly becoming a policy goal.
Trump the Isolationist has looped inside out and become Trump the Expansionist, with designs on Greenland, Canada, and Panama. His foreign policy for Central America is basically now the famous palindrome: a man, a plan, a canal, Panama.
Is he serious?
Yes.
Always take the president of the United States seriously, especially when he says he’s being serious. He may be using aggressive rhetoric as a negotiating tool to get better deals, but the threats are very real. Trump believes in tariffs like a priest believes in God.
When Trump threatens to beggar Canada with the economic force of 25% tariffs, it is the ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.
Canadian industry is bracing for a dramatic, painful economic shock. From. Its. Closest. Biggest. Trading. Partner.
All this lines up perfectly with the Top Risks of 2025 that our parent company, Eurasia Group, released this week, as you have read about. Risks such as Trumponomics — high tariffs on all allies and foes — mixed with the risk of The Rule of Don, a mercurial leader who has destroyed norms and wants the rule of the jungle over the rule law, is a lethal combination for a middle power country like Canada.
The rules-based international order is the architecture of the multilateral world, one that the US built in its own image after World War II and, until now, has been the backstop. This order has led to incredible prosperity for both the US and Canada, and billions of others. It is now disappearing faster than the fact-checkers at Meta.
As Trump throws economic bombs, Canada will have to muddle through the next three to five months without a leader who has a national mandate, leaving premiers like Ontario’s Doug Ford to lead the fight. And credit to him: Ford, so far, has done a superb job defending his province and speaking out.
Trump is coming for Canada and wants it to be the 51st state, in part or in whole — and if there was ever a time for someone to prove they have the stuff for leadership in a time of crisis, it is now. To twist an old expression, it is the 51st or fight.
Canadians better be up for a fight.
The European Union flag is displayed on a laptop screen and Elon Musk's account on X is displayed on a phone screen.
Musk, the richest man in the world and owner of the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, used his money and social media muscle to help Trump become president again. Now, he’s turning his mind to European politics.
Musk is reportedly “probing how he and his right-wing allies can destabilize the UK Labour government” of Keir Starmer. Musk has been repeatedly sharing attacks on Starmer, alleging that he and his government have been complicit in covering up a child sex abuse scandal, although the evidence for that is not strong.
Musk favors the traditionally marginal right-wing Reform Party, although even its leader, Nigel Farage, has distanced himself from Musk’s celebration of Tommy Robinson, a far-right rabble-rouser in prison for contempt of court.
Before he can take down Starmer, though, Musk will host a conversation with the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany.
European leaders are speaking out against Musk, and they have the power to prosecute him for election interference if they choose. But he is powerful enough and close enough to Trump to make that a forbidding prospect. Trump could punish them if they go after his friend, but not doing so could look like acquiescence to the tech titan.
They face a conundrum, and at the moment they are focused on discouraging Trump from invading Greenland.Who is lining up to replace outgoing Justin Trudeau as Liberal Party leader and prime minister?
Popular MP Dominic LeBlancannounced Wednesday that he will not run. He took over the Finance portfolio after Chyrstia Freeland abandoned the sinking Trudeau ship last month, and he was already engaged with border issues, having gone with Trudeau to Mar-a-Lago at the end of November. The bilingual LeBlanc – French fluency is a must for Canadian PMs these days – was considered a potential replacement for Trudeau, but he couldn’t abandon his crucial portfolios to take part in the race.
Most speculation is now centered on Freeland, former British Columbia premier Christy Clark and former central banker Mark Carney, who are all considering candidacies.
They all have strengths and vulnerabilities. Freeland has the highest profile and is seen as tough and capable, but she would find it hard to distance herself from unpopular Trudeau policies. Also, some Liberals might resent her for hastening Trudeau’s political demise with her resignation.
Clark is a proven political performer with deep roots in the right wing of the party and could easily distance herself from Trudeau, but the quality of her French is an open question.
Carney, meanwhile, has impeccable economic credentials, a record of achievement at a global level, and speaks French, but he has not proven himself in the rough-and-tumble world of politics.
Several ministers are also considering runs, including François-Philippe Champagne, Karina Gould, Mélanie Joly, Steve MacKinnon, and Jonathan Wilkinson.
They all may wait until the rules are announced to announce their candidacies. The party is under pressure to tighten leadership voting rules, which currently allow foreign students and temporary workers to vote.
It’s too soon to handicap a race, but Carney is the one to watch. The Conservatives keep attacking him, which suggests he makes them nervous. But Carney has never sought public office, and it is impossible to predict if his skin is thick enough or stump presence appealing enough for the job.Firefighters battle the Palisades Fire as it burns during a windstorm on the west side of Los Angeles, California, on Jan. 8, 2025.
Out-of-control wildfires are devastating southern California, which, in the hyperpolarized political world of 2025, has resulted in a war of words between Republicans and Democrats.
The fires are without precedent, the result of a warming climate, residential development in woodlands, decades of fire suppression that have left a lot of dead trees and dry grass, and powerful Santa Ana winds.
Whatever the cause, the blazes are dire. Tens of thousands have been evacuated from greater Los Angeles as multiple fires burn out of control. At least five people have been killed, and hundreds of buildings have been left in smoldering ruins.
President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Muskseized on the occasion to attack California Gov. Gavin Newsom, accusing him of being behind environmental restrictions that have prevented dams from being built. Newsom — or “Newscum,” as Trump calls him — has put a lot of money into forest management since Trump first accused him of creating conditions for wildfires back in 2019, but the high winds and heat made the fires unstoppable. Newsom has hit back, accusing Trump of playing politics at a time when leaders should be focused on managing the imminent threat.
The fires, and the war of words, are unlikely to end any time soon, but the bigger fight lies ahead, after Trump’s inauguration, when Democrats and Republicans are likely to clash over FEMA, which Trump has criticized, and forest management policies.Canada's Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Marc Miller speaks at a press conference about the government's border plan as Public Safety and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc listens, on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, on Dec. 17, 2024.
Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced last Friday that Ottawa will pause new parent and grandparent sponsorship applications to address a 40,000-application backlog. Simultaneously, thousands of migrant caregivers find themselves in limbo as the government hits the brakes on proposed pathways to permanent residency, leaving many without legal status.
The moves represent the latest reversals of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s ambitious immigration policies, implemented in 2016, which sought to expand family reunification and increase overall permanent residency applications to 305,000 a year. Those numbers climbed further after the COVID-19 pandemic when the government admitted over 437,000 new permanent residents and 604,000 temporary workers in 2022, and 471,550 new permanent residents and 1,646,300 temporary workers in 2023. During the same period, the government also finalized close to 2,000,000 study permits. Those permits have now been capped at 437,000 for 2025.
Immigration is seen by some as the undoing of Trudeau, who announced his resignation on Jan. 6 after nine years in power. The PM’s ambitious post-pandemic immigration targets brought the population to 40 million, but housing shortages, rising rents, and stretched social services fueled voter discontent. Traditionally low opposition to immigration soared from 27% to 58% in the past two years, “the most rapid change over a two-year period since Focus Canada began asking this question in 1977,” according to Environics.
US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy is sounding the alarm that drinking alcohol is linked to cancer, and he’s calling for a rethink on the federal government’s guideline for how much alcohol is safe to drink. Right now, US government guidelines recommend that men consume no more than two drinks per day, and women have no more than one.
His call comes at the right time for Dry January when many choose to forego alcohol and focus on New Year’s resolutions. But the effort comes at the wrong time for the restaurant industry, which depends on alcohol sales to make a profit, especially as food and labor costs rise, and as inflation-weary diners are cutting back on eating out.
But consumers may already be heeding his warning. According to the WHO and the CIA’s Factbook, both Canadians and Americans have cut back on their drinking since booze consumption surged during the pandemic.
Hard Numbers: Ring of “América Mexicana,” Canada to the fire rescue, Students’ stingy stipends, Ghost crimes soar
Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum shows a 1661 world map showing the Americas and the Gulf of Mexico in response to US President-elect Donald Trump's comments about renaming the body of water, during a press conference at National Palace in Mexico City, Mexico, on Jan. 8, 2025.
418: What was the United States called before it was the United States? “Mexican America,” according to a 418-year-old map shown by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum at a press conference on Wednesday. “It sounds nice,” she said, “no?” The display was meant as a clapback to US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposal a day earlier to rename the Gulf of Mexico “the Gulf of America.”
2: Two Canadian planes are helping California to battle the massive wildfires currently raging near Los Angeles. The two Canadair CL-415s are specialized bombers that can fill their bellies with fresh or salt water to dump on fires. Canada has been sending firefighter aircraft to California seasonally for three decades.
9,500: If you want to do a PhD in biology or physics in Canada, you’d best be financially secure before you start. The average stipend for Canadian graduate students studying those subjects leaves them CA$9,500 (US$11,900) below the poverty line, according to a new study in the journal Nature. To keep pace with the cost of living, stipends would have to increase by 150%.
1,600: The United States is becoming a “ghost” town, at least when it comes to firearms. The number of privately made, untraceable “ghost guns” found at crime scenes each year surged from about 1,600 in 2017 to more than 27,000 in 2023, an increase of some 1,600%. Later this year, the US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of a Biden administration effort to crack down on these weapons.