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Trump and Trudeau on opposite sides of a border wall.
Donald Trump’s radical plan to crack down on undocumented immigration has sparked widespread concerns across the US. Beyond the human rights implications, there are serious questions regarding the potential economic toll of Trump’s immigration proposals. Trump has promised mass deportations and this week confirmed plans to involve the military. He has vowed to begin deportations on his first day in office.
State and municipal leaders are already taking steps to protect immigrants ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Earlier this week, Los Angeles passed a sanctuary city ordinance codifying the rights of migrants. Governors in California, Massachusetts, and Illinois are considering plans of their own to protect migrants at the state level, setting up a showdown between the federal government and state and local governments.
Rights groups have raised the alarm about the potential for violations and abuse if Trump’s plan moves forward, as economists warn that the president-elect’s immigration plan would lead to higher prices for food and other goods, alongside labor shortages. In 2022, undocumented workers made up nearly 14% of the construction industry, 13% of the agriculture industry, and 7% of the hospitality industry. On top of all that, it’s estimated that Trump’s plan could also take a decade and cost nearly a trillion dollars.
Trump’s push to deport millions comes amid shifting public sentiment toward immigration. Gallup’s tracking poll has seen a sharp increase in recent years in the share of Americans who want to see lower immigration levels — from 28% in 2020 to 55% in 2024. A similar trend is emerging to the north.
Canada watches closely — and faces its own migration problem
Canada is keeping a particularly close eye on what happens next in the US, especially with regard to Trump’s immigration plan. The two countries share the world’s longest undefended border and a trade relationship worth a trillion dollars a year.
Experts have warned that Trump’s push for mass deportations could lead undocumented immigrants in the US to flee to Canada and trigger a migrant crisis, destabilizing the country at a time when it’s already turning against newcomers domestically.
After decades of a strong pro-immigration consensus in the country, Canadians have recently begun to oppose higher levels of immigration. A fall poll found that roughly three-quarters of Canadians want to reduce immigration until housing gets cheaper. The shift in support has been building for some time as politicians point to a growing rate of immigrants — which federal and provincial governments control — as a source of pressure on housing affordability, healthcare resources, and jobs.
In recent months, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has introduced changes to immigration policy aimed at curbing numbers. In the fall, the government moved to limit the number of international students the country would admit. It also reformed the country’s temporary foreign worker program, scaling it back. More recently, the Liberals introduced a plan to cut immigration levels by roughly 20% next year and more in the following two years — after raising those targets as recently as last year. Economists warned the moves could slow the economy.
Managing a mercurial Trump
Trump’s mass deportation plan puts Canada in a precarious position. The Trudeau government will have to manage the logistics of regular and irregular crossings along with a potential spike in asylum claims. Meanwhile, Ottawa will face the more general challenge of maintaining strong relations with Washington under a president who often blindsided Canada on issues like trade during his first term in office.
Some of Trump’s appointees have already ripped into Canada over border security, painting the country as a laggard and a threat — particularly incoming border czar Tom Homan, who cites concerns about terrorists crossing between the countries. Homan says there is an “extreme national security vulnerability” along the US-Canada border and expects “tough conversations.”
For its part, the Canadian government says it’s prepared to “do the work” in response to US border concerns, particularly as irregular crossings at the northern border are up. But that work could become complicated if Trump proceeds with his plan for mass deportations — especially if Canadian police and border officials lack the resources to manage what may come.
An uncertain path ahead
The word “unprecedented” gets thrown around a lot lately, but what follows next on immigration, border policy, and the relationship between Canada and the US could indeed be unprecedented. A mass deportation program, combined with softening support for immigration on both sides of the border, politicians ready to scapegoat migrants, and the economic consequences of bringing in fewer newcomers — at a time when people are just beginning to see the early stages of relief from a years-long housing affordability crisis — will be, to say the least, a mess.
It’s an extraordinary, and dangerous, moment of realignment.
Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice, notes that the US and Canada have “traditionally been highly welcoming of new immigrants, at least compared to other countries.” However, he points out, there’s been a dual shift lately driven by two different sources.
He argues that Canada doesn’t necessarily have to harmonize its immigration policy with the US under Trump, but it will face pressure to tighten border security and screening processes for newcomers.
Nonetheless, Canada doesn’t have to follow Washington’s lead, he says, since the two face different challenges.
“The immigration pressures in each country are very different. In Canada, the primary focus is on bringing down numbers of international students and temporary foreign workers, in large part due to cost-of-living pressures, whereas in the US, the emphasis is on undocumented immigrants who entered the country illegally, which is not a significant problem north of the border.”
But the question remains: What will Canada do if and when Trump proceeds with his mass deportation plan and the northern border becomes a focal point for migrants, particularly as the country worries about Trump on trade and defense? And as the Liberal government, down 20 points in the polls, faces an election due by October 2025?
The Trudeau Cabinet says it’s focused on the matter and has a plan for the border, but details have been scant so far, leaving Canadians — and migrants — left to wonder what comes next.
Chairman of the Michigan Republican Party Pete Hoekstra speaks during the Michigan GOP's Election Night Party.
Donald Trump on Wednesday tapped former Michigan congressman and Netherlands ambassadorPete Hoekstra to be US ambassador to Canada.
In a statement on the pick, Trump noted his campaign won Michigan “sizably” and gave a nod to Hoekstra’s contributions. He touched on free trade, stating that his administration “overhauled the disastrous NAFTA agreement” and created a “level playing field” in trade with Canada and Mexico – a potentially positive sign that Trump thinks the replacement USMCA is a good deal.
The mention of free trade in Trump’s statement will catch attention in Canada, where the government is keeping a close eye on the incoming president’s promise to levy across-the-board tariffs – which Canada deeply prefers to avoid. Trump says Hoekstra will help him “once again put AMERICA FIRST,” but it’s not clear what that will mean for one his country’s largest trading partners.
Former US ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman told GZERO that Hoekstra is an experienced ambassador who knows both Trump and Congress — and an insider who Canada will need to get the “straight scoop” and “lay of the land” in Washington.
Heyman points out that Hoekstra’s border-state origins means he understands the US-Canada relationship, which is good news given the need to navigate coming changes. Moreover, Heyman said that the early naming of an ambassador to Canada “shows the importance of the relationship” between the two countries.
In the coming months, that relationship may be put to the test and Canada will likely welcome any help or advantage it can get.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a signing ceremony for the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, U.S., January 29, 2020.
Donald Trump’s election win has Canadian premiers worried about the future of free trade. Trump has promised to levy across-the-board tariffs of between 10 and 20%, but it’s unclear whether Canada would be included. Canada is trying to avoid that fate, and provincial politicians are willing to throw free-trade partner Mexico under the bus if it helps their cause.
For years, Trump has been concerned with Chinese trade. Recently, he’s turned his attention to Mexico’s trade relationship with China, but he’s not the only one. The Biden administration and the Trudeau government are also worried that cheap Chinese goods could creep across their borders through Mexico, including electric vehicles.
Citing “an imbalance” in the three-country USMCA free trade agreement, Alberta premier Danielle Smith argues Canada should make separate, bilateral trade deals with the US and Mexico – a move she thinks would please the incoming Trump administration. Ontario premier Doug Ford, whose province is home to a large auto sector,agrees. He says all Canadian premiers are aligned on the matter, and is pushing for a meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to make that happen.
The USMCA is up for renegotiation in 2026, but the deal could be a moot point by then.
Striking Canada Post workers, represented by the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW).
After years of struggles with their employer, Canada Post, posties in Canada have gone on strike as the holiday season settles in. Roughly 55,000 postal workers are striking for more money, a better medical leave plan, job protections, and against the Crown corporation’s move to a seven-day parcel delivery service aimed at competing with private services.
Many large businesses have shifted their deliveries to alternative mail services, but smaller businesses are struggling to manage the cost and logistics. Experts say the ensuing mail backlog could last into the new year as the strike continues, including 85,000 passports — and counting – that are being held by Service Canada.
Meanwhile, Canada Post itself has struggled in recent years to compete with private carriers, and has been losing hundreds of millions of dollars a year since 2018.
Negotiations between the union and Canada Post, helped by a special mediator, are continuing, but the end could be a while off yet. The federal government could step in and order workers back to work, as they did with mail carriers in 2018 – and port workers earlier this month. But the move would risk further alienating workers and undermining labor rights. But the Liberals have proven before they’re willing to go nuclear and legislate employees back to work, and they may be prepared to do so again.
In this photo illustration, a Google Chrome logo seen displayed on a smartphone with a Google Logo in the background.
The Justice Department play comes as the government is suing Apple (for a third time in a decade and a half), alleging it has built a monopoly around its iPhone and app ecosystem. The government is also suing Google over its domination of the online ad market. There are several other stateside tech lawsuits, too.
Canada is pursuing its own investigation into Google’s ad practices. Earlier this spring, four large school boards in the country launched a class action suit against Meta, Snap Inc. and ByteDance (which operates TikTok), alleging the companies harm students and their capacity to learn.
The suits are part of a growing anti-big tech push aimed at restraining the giants and sorting out their position in the marketplace — and both the media and democratic ecosystems. The process is slow-going, but legal precedents — such as what may come from the current Justice Department cases – could have major national and perhaps even international consequences for tech users and companies looking to break into the market.
Obesity and Ozempic use in the US and Canada
Obesity rates have risen strikingly since the 1990s in the US, according to a newstudy from The Lancet, with nearly three-quarters of the country overweight or obese — and more than 50% considered obese or severely obese. Obesity has also been on the rise in Canada, with 30% of adults considered obese in 2023.
Amidst skyrocketing obesity, usage of Ozempic — a drug that aids with weight loss by mimicking the “fullness” hormone in the brain and curbing appetite — has also been increasing, with prescriptions rising by 300% in the US between 2020-2022. As of 2023, 12% of adults in Canada use the drug, compared to 10% in the US. While usage levels are relatively similar in both countries, prices are drastically different, with the weight loss drug costing over $600 more per month in the US.
This has led many Americans to cross thenorthern border to obtain the drug. And numbers could grow depending on policies put in place by Donald Trump’s nominee for Health and Human Services, Robert F Kennedy Jr., who has been highly critical of Ozempic as a treatment for obesity and diabetes.
Trump team … Assemble!
Usually, obsession with team building is reserved for the world of sports, not politics. There are Hollywood movies about NFL draft day, and the trade deadlines in basketball, hockey, and baseball command all-day TV specials. But those seem trivial compared to the global obsession with Trump Team 2.0. Who is on it, and what does it mean for the next four years?
Cabinet-building has long been crucial for both the success of a presidency and for the direction of the United States. From the presidencies of Abraham Lincoln to Donald Trump, the team often tells the tale of power.
After narrowly winning the election of 1860, Lincoln knew the United States was lurching toward civil war. He needed a united team to take on the emerging secessionist Confederacy, but he didn’t choose loyalists. Instead, he made a radical choice to bring in his chief opponents like William Seward, Salmon Chase, and Edward Bates. In her bestselling book, Doris Kearns Goodwin called this a “Team of Rivals.”
Initially, it looked like a rookie mistake. Seward tried to sabotage Lincoln, leaking false announcements about a surrender of Fort Sumter, the place where, soon after, the first shots of the Civil War were fired.
But Lincoln asserted his leadership without alienating his team, and Seward soon became one of his closest confidants. Co-opting and including his chief opponents is roundly hailed as one of Lincoln’s finest strategies.
If Lincoln put together a team of rivals, Trump has assembled a team of reprisals. This is a group of ardent MAGA loyalists, not rivals — as Ian Bremmer pointed out in our GZERO video. Their job is to radically transform every part of government, from trade policy to foreign policy. There are three goals: reformation, reduction, and reprisal. And that last point is critical. The foundational promise Trump made to voters was to smash “the enemies within.” And that is exactly what this team is built to do.
Here is a starter menu:
- The Deep State: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed to actively find “efficiencies” and dismantle large swaths of the government. “You’re fired” will be the watchwords.
- The Military: Pete Hegseth, the veteran and Fox News commentator, is headed for the secretary of defense job, where he has long said he would fire all generals who support programs like Diversity, Equity and Inclusion.
- The Border: Tom Homan, the nominated “border czar,” has warned all illegal aliens to get ready for mass deportation, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem will be Trump’s Homeland Security chief working alongside Homan.
- The Department of Education: Trump has promised to close this down completely to stop the so-called “woke agenda.”
- The Environmental Protection Agency: Expect former New York Rep. Lee Zeldin to gut EPA regulations. He has already signaled his priorities, with a social media post saying he will “restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs and make the US the global leader of AI. We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water.” The EPA might have to change its initials to the DBD, for Drill, Baby, Drill. Still, there are some signs of resistance here. Even the CEO of ExxonMobil pushed back, saying, “I don’t think the challenge or the need to address global emissions is going to go away.”
- Trade: China hawk Sen. Marco Rubio will be the secretary of state, likely overseeing a world of high tariffs that will trigger trade wars alongside the existing wars already raging.
- The Legal System: Matt Gaetz’s nomination for attorney general is taking the most incoming. Gaetz believes he and Trump are victims of Democratic “lawfare,” and he’s ready to hit back. “The hammer of Justice is coming,” declared Elon Musk on X, lest anyone think there will be no reprisals.
To Trump supporters — and that means the majority of voters — this is exactly what they wanted. Expect them to follow through on everything you heard on the campaign trail. As folks used to say, take Trump and his team both seriously and literally.
The president-elect has long claimed he is the victim of multiple attacks from the establishment because he promised to “drain the swamp” and, unlike in 2016, he’s wasting no time assembling a team to fight back. Of the many things to expect from Donald Trump, reprisals are at the top of the list.
How to cover the Trump team fairly?
Covering this transition in a meaningful, insightful way requires genuine balance and adherence to fairness. In the current climate of hyper-polarization, anything but praise for the president-elect can be cast as “woke” bias from the “lamestream” media. On the other hand, anything positive about Trump is often cast as supplicant cozying up to a kleptocracy.
Neither is helpful.
The key is not to focus on the fertilized fears on social media but on the real actions of the Trump team. What will they actually do? Who is benefiting from the radical change?
What will be the impact of their policies on the economy, rights, security, climate, and social coherence?
Each question will have a specific answer, and tracking them with facts and credibility will be key over the next four years. In an environment where distrust and disinformation are weaponized, straight talk and nonpartisan insight will become more valuable than ever.
This is just the beginning of the second Trump era, and it will be significantly more transformative than the first. Trump’s Team of Reprisals is ready to do exactly what they promised on the campaign trail, best summed up in three words: fight, fight fight.