Donald Trump hadn’t even settled into office before his presidency dominated politics — not only in the United States but also in Canada. His threat of across-the-board tariffs of 25% and musings about conquering the country with which the US shares the world’s longest undefended border startled politicians north of the 49th parallel — as well as journalists, industry leaders, and just about everyone else paying attention.
Trump’s tariffs are still set to kick in on Saturday, Feb. 1, and last week, aboard Air Force One, the president revisited his idea of Canada becoming part of the republic, calling it “a country that should be a state.” Trump claimed that if Canada were to join the US, it would have better health care, lower taxes, and “no military problems.”
The scale at which Trump’s agenda and musings have reshaped politics in Canada is, as the president himself might put it, huge. The president has turned the Canadian political landscape into a circus, affecting everything from the Liberal leadership race and the campaigns for the soon-expected federal election to the just-launched Ontario election and the trajectory of public policy.
“Given that managing relations with the US and keeping the border open to the free flow of goods are Canada’s primary national interests,” says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice, “there’s little doubt that the specter of Trump is going to haunt Canadian politics — both federal and provincial — for the foreseeable future.”
“Upcoming elections in Ontario as well as federally will, in all likelihood, be framed in terms of Canada’s policy response to the Trump administration,” he adds, “including potential tariffs (which, if they don’t arrive on February 1, are almost inevitable at some point later this year or next).”
Indeed, the Trump circus is already underway.
Everyone is running against Trump
The governing Liberal Party is holding a leadership race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and the winner will become prime minister in March. That race is already, first and foremost, about Trump. The former deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland is running — and promising a summit of nations targeted by Trump, including Canada, the European Union, Mexico, Denmark, and Panama if she wins. The goal of the summit would be to “coordinate a joint response to challenges to our sovereignty and our economies,” she says. Freeland also promises dollar-for-dollar tariffs to match Trump’s duties, casting herself as the tough-on-Trump candidate.
Freeland’s chief rival, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney, is setting himself in the same anti-Trump crusader mold, but with a side of seasoned crisis manager to boot. Carney, who is also running on retaliatory tariffs, says the Trump tariffs would “demand the most serious trade response in our history.” He’s promising to stand up Canada against threats from Trump — a requirement now for any politician in the country — and pitching himself as the person best suited to negotiate with the infamously mercurial Trump.
Whoever succeeds Trudeau will continue to campaign for the federal election, where they’ll take on Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, the odds-on favorite to win that election. But the federal contest will almost certainly be about Trump and who’s best suited to lead the country against him. A recent poll found nearly 80% of Canadians want an immediate election so that whichever party wins will have public support for hitting back against Trump’s tariff threat, while 82% support retaliatory duties.
Conservatives caught in an awkward position
The anti-Trump fervor is leaving Conservatives who once supported Trump in an awkward position, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who called an early election this week in Canada’s most populous province. With the election call, Ford cited Trump’s threats and the need to “outlive and outlast” his administration. Ford recently received praise for sporting a “Canada is not for sale” hat, and his snap election — with his party campaigning under the slogan “Protect Ontario” — is focused on securing a “strong mandate” to deal with tariff fallout, which could cost the province over 450,000 jobs.
Ford, who once said his support of Trump was “unwavering,” is promising to retaliate against American tariffs, including a threat to halt stateside energy exports worth billions. He’s been leading the anti-Trump charge among Canada’s premiers, and his former praise for the president is now a distant memory, making him a bit of a political contortionist.
He’s not alone.
Poilievre, who’s been cast as pro-Trump and Trumpian himself, is talking of a “Canada first” policy and promising to “hit hard” against the US if Trump goes ahead with tariffs. Poilievre recently declared that Canada can “buy elsewhere to maximize the impact on Americans and minimize the impact on Canadians,” as he argued for the country’s need to build self-reliance. Whatever ideological camaraderie Poilievre might share with Trump, the national interest comes first in politics.
Trump dominates Canadian policymaking too
The Trump administration is already shaping Canadian policy on trade, defense, immigration and the border, climate change, energy, and more, initiating a scramble to adapt quickly. Before Trump took office, Canada was working to change its border policy, and the Trudeau government quickly moved to adopt new border security measures, including drones and helicopters in the face of Trump’s tariff threats. All this comes as Canada expects a sharp rise in the number of asylum-seekers in response to Trump’s immigration crackdown, including an end to birthright citizenship, mass deportations, and suspension of the US refugee assistance program.
There’s now talk of the vulnerability of Canada’s north-south energy corridors, which have become the only show in town. Poilievre is raising the need for Canada to be able to move more of its oil and gas east to west — perhaps using the once-proposed Energy East pipeline, which never came to fruition. That would amount to a new trade and energy strategy for the country — and represent a major shift.
As Trump moves to abandon US initiatives on climate change, such as participating in the Paris Climate Accord, ending new wind power development, exploiting oil and gas deposits in protected areas, and declaring war on energy regulations, industry standards may adjust away from more climate-friendly expectations, thereby impacting Canada’s standards as well.
How long will Canada rally around the flag?
Canada’s Trump focus — and anxiety — is also producing a rally-around-the-flag effect, with a growing sense of patriotism and rejection of all that 51st-state talk. Canadians are gearing up for tough months and years ahead, with governments in Ottawa and around the country already working on relief programs to mitigate the potential damage caused by Trump’s tariffs.
Trump’s threats have even managed to mostly unite the country’s fractious premiers and prime minister in a more or less “Team Canada” approach, though Alberta Premier Danielle Smithand Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe are holdouts who oppose retaliatory tariffs. Still, that leaves 10 of 13 provinces and territories working together, which is a good rate for Canada.
But with roughly 80% of Canadian trade going to the US, the strong cultural and personal connections, a shared border, and deeply integrated defense policies, Canada will be hit hard by any fight with its neighbor — especially a prolonged one, which this could be.
Canada stands — like the US itself — to become exhausted by the endless focus on Trump and guessing at what his latest plans signify. In short, the Trump circus is just getting started, which means Canadian politicians must get used to walking the tightrope.
