TRANSCRIPT: Europe's energy future: Perspective from Norway's PM Jonas Støre
Jonas Store:
Norway will transit out the oil and gas. When we pass 2030, there will be declining production. And then we want to see renewables transition upwards. This has to happen in Europe and it's a major undertaking. Normally it would take decades and generations, and we're going to do it in a few years.
Ian Bremmer:
Hello and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast. This is where you'll find extended versions of my conversations on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and today I am asking a question on the minds of many world leaders. If the chips are down, can Europe go it alone in supporting Ukraine? Depending on the outcome of the November election in the United States? That may not be a hypothetical question for much longer. And if two years of war has taught European leaders anything, it's that support for Ukraine with or without US backing will require much greater energy security at home. A recent drop in global energy prices has been a welcome relief across the continent, but prices that fall can also rise and Europe remains vulnerable. Here to talk about this and more as the leader of Europe's main internal energy supplier, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Store. Let's get to it.
Speaker 3:
The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our lead sponsor Prologis. Prologis helps businesses across the globe scale their supply chains with an expansive portfolio of logistics real estate, and the only end-to-end solutions platform addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today. Learn more at prologis.com.
Ian Bremmer:
Prime Minister Jonas Store, so nice to see you on GZERO World.
Jonas Store:
Good to be here.
Ian Bremmer:
Maybe I want to start with an area that we are actually seeing a little bit of progress, which is the energy transition. You are an important player in that game. COP 28 has happened. We've got a lot of sideline meetings here at the Munich Security Conference, and we can certainly say there's movement, there's progress.
Jonas Store:
And amidst all the gloom. We had earlier in the week of the Munich Conference, we had the Oslo Energy Forum, which has been there for many decades. And this time it was also described in a geopolitical setting. So there were presentations about what's happening in the geopolitical scene. And one of the participants I met afterwards said it was a very depressive session because the world looks like a messy place. So there were two reasons for hope and that was on climate change and energy transition. And it was quite remarkable because those two have been two issues that have been of great concern. Not going fast enough, not happening, but there are interesting things here happening. I think the energy transition is happening. I think COP really laid the foundation for further transition. For the first time you have written down in text all agreeing that there will be a transition out of fossil fuels and an underlining transition, not one to the other. So we have to build the renewable. And with that happening, I think with the cost of solar, wind and the new technologies coming down-
Ian Bremmer:
Down radically.
Jonas Store:
Radically. One issue, John Kerry and I launched at the last COP, a Green Shipping initiative, no institution, no secretariat, no nothing, but industry has really taken on this. And now you have the construction of the first major car ferries. Well, transporting cars with ammonia, and that was a few years ago, seen to be happening in the mid-thirties, and it's happening in the mid-twenties. So with technology, I think there are some very exciting things happening.
Ian Bremmer:
How much of this is because the Europeans were able to get ahead of it early and coordinate and regulate? How much of it is because the investment from the United States, the financial institutions has been a radical transformation? How much of it is because we have the United Nations and others getting the world together to talk about it in the same way? Where would you prioritize? As that we think about what we need for success in dealing with other global challenges where we're not seeing it, what were the preconditions, the antecedents that made this more possible?
Jonas Store:
Well, I think you need all of the above in the sense that you cannot make it unless you make the market economy be at the service of the transition. So there has to be real incentives to put your money there. There is enough money out in the world and you need to get the incentives to be at the right place. Co₂ price is coming up and that is why you have oil industry in my country saying, "We will electrify our platforms because the cost of emitting CO₂ has gone above the price and we should do something about it." So that's one thing. I think COP 28 means that there have been 27 before and there've been no different qualities, but this time I think it was quite focused, well managed by the UAE. So that's one area in the UN family.
And then there is the enormous power of technological change, opportunities coming from a combination of the market incentives, political decision, but to share opportunities of technology. What I think is necessary to have politics in politics, but also politics with industry. Take one example, storage capacity for renewables, battery. We know that that is happening in our countries, in Norway. We have now some major battery factories being built. Where this is really needed is in emerging economies that will make the choice, should we do 50 more coal-fired plants or should we go for solar or wind? But the green premium, the costs-
Ian Bremmer:
Is still very large.
Jonas Store:
Is still very large.
Ian Bremmer:
In these countries, yes.
Jonas Store:
So that's why I'm also engaged almost half privately, but as prime minister in the global Alliance for People and Planet, which is philanthropy, governments trying to make some major coordinated purchase of batteries that can help get costs down. So a combination. This is for me, it's really the mixed economy. It's between government intervention, market incentives and the powerful global agenda.
Ian Bremmer:
Now when I see a challenge here, long-term, the biggest piece is that the poorest countries in the world, which are bearing the greatest burden of climate change. Yes, there's finally an agreement in principle that you need a loss in damages fund, but the amount of money that's being committed to it is negligible. It's almost insulting for some of these countries. And it's after years and years and years of pleading, begging, demanding. Do you hold out hope that that will change significantly and if so, why?
Jonas Store:
Well, that was part of where I think the COP presidency of UAE maneuvered quite well because they had on the first day of the COP agreement on the fund. So not only that there was a structure of the fund and the way it was made, but they made a major deposit.
Ian Bremmer:
They made a deposit, yes.
Jonas Store:
A big deposit. And since then I saw the president Al Jaber here now. They had brought along orders and that amount is increasing. We have to defend that fund and that financial mechanism that is all the way back to Paris. But there are all the financial issues we need to do, which are more targeted. For example, what we have been engaged in for now 20 years is rainforest protection and the way we made those financial incentives is already proving. And now with Lula in Brazil, he has got deforestation down by 80% in the one year he's been in office, Indonesia, DRC. So these are also financial incentives that makes it possible for developing countries to do that preservation.
Ian Bremmer:
Moving to a topic that's more challenging, NATO is expanding and the Nordics are driving that, but there is nothing promising on the Russian invasion of Ukraine at this point. In fact, we just saw very recently the killing looks pretty clear of Alexei Navalny in Russia. Let me ask first about the energy transition. How do you think the Europeans have managed after a forcible severing of their relationship with a critical energy producer and exporter Russia over the last two years?
Jonas Store:
I think that's been quite remarkable. If you think about the frenzy of February, March, April, May over 2022, yeah. So I think there was a combination of major things. Some industry in Europe took a heavy beating, in Germany, for example. We as Norway were able through a combination of regulations from my government and industry to increase our gas exports by some 8%, representing about a hundred terawatt hours in effect. And that made it possible to get through those months and also to prepare for 23 and the winter to fill up the storage capacity. So by a combination of increased gas coming in pipeline, the LNG coming in from the US, from the Gulf and also from Norway, which is making Norway the main provider of gas to Europe, we are on the pretty solid ground.
Ian Bremmer:
So would you say two years later, I mean nothing has been managed for Ukraine, but in terms of the energy transition away from Russia, has Europe now gotten through that?
Jonas Store:
Yeah, I think pretty well. But the reason why there was a crisis was that when the gas was taken out, you were suffering from not having built up of the nuclear and built up of the coal. So this underlines the notion of transition, if you want a transition. And Norway will transit out of oil and gas. When we pass 2030, they will be declining production, and then we want to see renewables transition upwards. This has to happen in Europe and it's a major undertaking. Normally it would take decades and generations and we're going to do it in a few years, building the grid, having a circulation of power in the broader continent. There is still a lot of Russian LNG arriving in Europe. So there are some issues there on dependency. But by and large, I think it has been managed well.
Ian Bremmer:
Now on the security side. Right now, I mean we've had two years where NATO has seemed stronger, more cohesive, certainly seen as more critical given what's happening in Ukraine. But it's ebbing at least somewhat in part because of concerns from the United States, in part because of economic concerns here in Germany. Tell me what you think is likely to happen and what you think needs to happen in the consolidation of the Transatlantic Alliance.
Jonas Store:
First, I think still, no matter how we turn it around, it is in the core interest of all NATO members to preserve NATO, not least for the biggest ally. I know it's a discussion, some discussion in the US, but for the US to have 31 of the world's most advanced countries as their allies pretty loyal, contributing, it's a major interest. So I think this is the most successful alliance in history. It has preserved peace. Article 5 has been used once.
Ian Bremmer:
By the Americans.
Jonas Store:
By the Americans, or by the Europeans saying, "We stand by you after 9/11."
Ian Bremmer:
After 9/11.
Jonas Store:
Yeah. So we have to preserve that. Then I think Europe should do more. Europe has done more, increased investment substantially and could do more on coordination. We need to do more on industry. We are learning that scaling up car industry or ski industry or TV industry is easy. You can increase production, but increase production of 155 millimeter artillery. That's hard because you don't have the production lines. Norway is producing NASAMs, the air defense that alongside the Patriots are now defending the cities of Ukraine. That cannot either be scaled up from half a year to the next half year. So we need to do much more there on that industrial capacity. But the key here is that when Europeans talk about coordinating better, I support that.
Norway is not EU member. We are closely integrated and we will be part of all that, but 80% on NATO's defense capacity is non-EU. It is US, Canada, UK, Turkey, Norway. So no matter how we look at it is a vital interest to preserve the transatlantic relevance, communication. And I believe that Ukraine has been very telling about our ability to coordinate what we do in the Rammstein and coordinate the way we support militarily has been under the circumstances successful. Logistically that's been successful. Normally you would have enormous amount of bottlenecks, but we've been able to get stuff in, so we just have to work on and we have to continue to support. Ukraine defending itself.
Ian Bremmer:
Has the political debate in the United States, both over support for Ukraine and over commitment to NATO in an election year. How much does that concern you? Has it shaken you? I mean, given what we're hearing from allies here in Europe right now, what's the level of concern and why on the basis of that?
Jonas Store:
Well, I mean, we live in a media hype society, so statements made on the campaign trail in the US are immediately all around the place. So then statements about NATO, collective defense, putting that into question. Obviously under these conditions, it's being referred to. And I would simply warn against that frenzy a bit. Let's analyze this in a cool fashion. We experienced four years under President Trump. The elections have not been held. It's not a given. It'll be exciting months ahead. We observe the complexity of getting decisions through Congress on issues where I again believe it is in the fundamental US interest. And to say to the US that if you look at what has gone to Ukraine in terms of financial support and military support, a hundred billion from Europe, 60, 70 or something from the US, Europe is contributing massively. So that notion that we are not, Norway is per GDP up there on the top almost. We have a five-year program to Ukraine, one and a half billion dollars every year for five years. For a small country. It's the biggest thing we ever done.
Ian Bremmer:
And the context, I mean, Americans do also need to understand how much of the economic pain of the war is being borne by the Europeans. The resettlement of refugees is being borne by the Europeans.
Jonas Store:
Four million refugees. And in my country, a small country, we have now Ukrainian refugees in every of the 350 municipalities. It has gone well. It's been a good reception compared to other experiences, but it's good to have opportunities like this to talk about that. What does it mean? Germany, one million and I mean Germany in terms of what they're contributing. I think they're getting sometimes a very unfair deal in describing what they do and what they don't do. They are making huge amounts of money available, military equipment and one million refugees on their land.
Ian Bremmer:
The other topic that we hear a lot about here, and it's a little about technology, but it's broader than that, is the state of democracy today. And the Nordics are always seen as positive model. They usually score extremely well when you talk about resilience, transparency, free media, that kind of thing, but even in the Nordics, we've seen some of these challenges. How do you think about the state of the West and the state of democracy as an institution?
Jonas Store:
Well, think about all the titles we have, How Democracies Die from academics, observing what is happening. I've read a few of them and I think there are lessons here. What I try to say in our Norwegian debate is that we have to sharpen our preparedness for three reasons. One is obviously security, military. We don't see that there's an imminent military threat. But having that kind of neighbor, having done this to another neighbor, we have to be very attentive. Secondly, what has really turned life upside down for people in recent years is weather and climate and extreme weather. I mean, we don't have forest fire that much, but extreme rain and mudslides and all that.
We have to be prepared and to tell people, "You need to have things in your kitchen to manage for a week without being able to go out to the shop." This is another of preparedness. And the third I mentioned is the quality of the democracy or media, what you read, what is right, what is wrong, what is false. And the first attack on us will not necessarily come by troops across the border, but it will come on the digital front. It'll come as hybrid attacks. It'll come on our connectiveness in the economy, and it'll come in our public debate. And how can you tell from one news to another news how it is, what it matters? And that's why the state of editor-led the media is so important. How we train our kids. I think they are exposed to too much screen and too little reading. We have just introduced a measure that we are taking mobile phones out of school.
Ian Bremmer:
Completely.
Jonas Store:
Completely.
Ian Bremmer:
For what ages?
Jonas Store:
From one to 18.
Ian Bremmer:
That's impressive. I didn't know you even had kids going from 1-year-old to school.
Jonas Store:
No, not one, but that's-
Ian Bremmer:
That was impressive for a second there.
Jonas Store:
First grade to 13th grade.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah. No, it's impressive.
Jonas Store:
But it means that when they come, they lock in their mobiles and when they leave, they can bring it.
Ian Bremmer:
No revolts so far. When does this happen?
Jonas Store:
Two weeks ago, decision made. It's not by law, but it's a very clear directive. But the fascinating thing, I've been around too many schools, teachers applaud this because you cannot have people sitting with their attention span on the screen. But the other one is that the kids like it. They say that, "We start to play in the breaks." The girls say, "We take a shower after the gym. We are not afraid anymore to be photographed." And there's a completely different social interaction. So I think this is the first step of trying to address what does the digital age really mean to our kids? And on that way, we need to ask ourselves, what does it mean to our own decision-making, in terms of being absorbed by this stolen focus.
Ian Bremmer:
You think that Norway's leading the world in the energy transition, but actually and more importantly, Norway's leading the world in getting back to communities.
Jonas Store:
But if you think as an attentive politician, it's when you get reactions to people of inflation and things. They're worried about drugs and delinquents and everything, but the amount of concern from parents and teachers and grandparents, this is a major theme. What is it doing to our brains? We see that the reading ability of kids around Europe and also in Norway from 2015 till now has really degraded. And it's not surprising because there's less reading and more instant news coming in.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah, the pandemic really hurt in that regard, I mean, it's wonderful because we can do Zoom now and all of that, but it really did hurt that transition.
Jonas Store:
It did hurt us. Yeah.
Ian Bremmer:
Prime Minister, Jonas Store, thanks so much for joining us today.
Jonas Store:
Good to be here.
Ian Bremmer:
That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast. Do you like what you heard? Of course you did. Well why don't you check us out at gzeromedia.com and take a moment to sign up for our newsletter. It's called GZERO Daily.
Speaker 3:
The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our lead sponsor Prologis. Prologis helps businesses across the globe scale their supply chains with an expansive portfolio of logistics real estate, and the only end-to-end solutions platform addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today. Learn more at prologist.com and from our friends at Foreign Policy each week on foreign Policy. Live editor-in-Chief Ravi Agrawal sits down with world leaders and policy experts to discuss the issues that matter most. From the US China relationship and the Israel Hamas war to the global south's growing clout. Listen and follow on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
