Podcast: Grading Biden on foreign policy with journalist Robin Wright

TRANSCRIPT: Grading Biden on foreign policy with journalist Robin Wright

Robin Wright:

The problem with American foreign policy is that we are so often reactive and not as proactive as we could be given our power, whether it's military or economic. We are still very insecure. We've never quite understood that we really are a super power, and the danger is, we've gotten to the point that we may no longer be a super power because of the very many different power centers evolving around the world.

Ian Bremmer:

Hello and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast. This is where you can find extended versions of my interviews on Public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and today a look at the Biden administration's rocky record on foreign policy over its first eight months. Sure, most allies are grateful that he's no Donald Trump. But following some recent geopolitical crises, has America's global standing really improved since Joe Biden took office? I'll be discussing the foreign policy road ahead with award-winning New Yorker writer Robin Wright, whose international reporting has covered everything from war-torn failed states to last month's United Nations General Assembly. Here's our conversation.

Annnouncer:

The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, places clients needs first by providing responsive, relevant, and customized solutions. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more. And GZERO World also has a message for you from our friends at Foreign Policy. COVID-19 changed life as we know it, but as the world reopens, this moment also presents an opportunity. On Global Reboot, foreign policy looks at old problems in new ways from US-China relations to gender and equality and racial discrimination, each week, Ravi Agrawal speaks to policy experts and world leaders and thinks through solutions to our world's toughest challenges. Check out Global Reboot wherever you get your podcasts.

Ian Bremmer:

Robin Wright from the New Yorker, thank you so much for joining today.

Robin Wright:

Great to be with you.

Ian Bremmer:

There's so much to talk about, but it is true that there are big questions in the world today about to what extent the United States can be counted on and what the US stands for. Tell me how you are thinking about this moment.

Robin Wright:

I think this is a moment where, not just Joe Biden, but America in general is being questioned by the world. Can we lead? Can we create the new institutions, the structures that will address an array of issues? There are so many to talk about, whether it's the fact that warfare is no longer only decided by who has the biggest bombers or the most tanks or the most troops. It's who dominates the field of information, who has control of the internet, who has the economic power?

Then there's also the kind of rusty infrastructure of ideology, the fact that democracy is in trouble. We celebrated 30 years ago the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of the Soviet Empire, the end of minority rule in Africa, and the collapse of military dictatorships in Latin America. And yet, you look at the world, and whether it's Venezuela, the first democracy in Latin America that is now a failing state with rival governments backed by rival powers, South Africa, which was like the United States was to the West, the exception in Africa. And today, it's a country that's beginning to fail as well with huge electricity blackouts despite gold and oil where they deployed 25,000 troops to deal with the largest protests since the anti-apartheid movement. Lebanon, which is a failing state, and it was the Middle East first democracy. So many challenges that we're doing things piecemeal and there's no great strategic vision.

Ian Bremmer:

Do you think we stand for something different than during 9/11, for example?

Robin Wright:

I think America hasn't really answered that question. We are so divided among ourselves that we're not even certain what we are. I actually wrote a piece about is America a myth? And we've gone through many crises and cycles of crises in our lives where we wondered about who we were and we fought a civil war. But I think today the question is, which side prevails in what is a corrosive political environment? At 9/11, we came away because we knew what we opposed more united. And I think it is those moments when we oppose something that we do stand together and do say, yes, democracy and the American flag and so forth. But in other moments, we are not quite so sure about what it is we want, how much we want to intervene in the world, and is it to do good or is it just to protect ourselves? And I think both the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan indicated we were out to defend ourselves, protect ourselves, but we certainly didn't leave those countries in better shape than they were.

Ian Bremmer:

Today, to the extent that enemy exists, increasingly, it appears to be China. Do you see that as a cohesive shift in American strategic vision?

Robin Wright:

Well, the thing that concerns me about China is that Biden, to his credit, is trying to build the institutions to deal with China. Whether it is elevating the so-called quad of Japan and India and Australia and the United States to leader level. Biden hosted, after the United Nations, a meeting of the four in Washington, and all four of them were present, not virtually. They don't like to talk about in terms of China, they talk about the Indo-Pacific.

Ian Bremmer:

Yeah, they never mention China when they're talking about the quad, but we all know kind of it's there, right?

Robin Wright:

Yes. And the same thing with the submarine deal that brought together Britain and Australia to provide nuclear technology so that Australia would have nuclear subs and a greater reach in the Indo-Pacific region. Again, not mentioning China, but we all know what it's about. So there is that beginning of a piecemeal construction of institutions to deal with China, but there's not enough that is substantive and there's not a direction saying to the world, this is what we want to do, kind of for fear that we're going to alienate the Chinese and that will lead them to do something to counter.

Ian Bremmer:

And a lot of American allies aren't up for it.

Robin Wright:

That's right. Yeah, that's right. The Europeans are kind of divided between the United States and China and do they want to get involved in with the United States as they were against Russia during the Soviet era.

Ian Bremmer:

If Trump had never existed, how would you rate Biden so far as a president? How would you think he was doing if Trump just didn't exist?

Robin Wright:

Biden is clearly the most experienced president in American history when it comes to foreign policy. He knows the world. The danger is that he spent most of his life, beginning in the early 1970s in politics, in the 20th century. And the idea is the format, the framework, the infrastructure of dealing with the world comes from the 20th century. And as I said, he's piecemeal trying to create something as an alternative, but I don't think he's spoken enough, partly because we're stuck between climate and COVID in dealing with existential questions. But again, this is where it'd be wonderful to have a big thinker get out there. I think it took Obama a long time. Presidents often deal with the realities.

The problem with American foreign policy, and again, as you know better than anyone, is that we are so often reactive and not as proactive as we could be given our power, whether it's military or economic. We are still very insecure. We've never quite understood that we really are a super power. And the danger is we've gotten to the point that we may no longer be a super power because of the very many different power centers evolving around the world.

Ian Bremmer:

So despite the fact the US is clearly the most powerful country in the world, the fact that there is such a diffusion of power centers, both governments, non-government, just limits the ability of the Americans to project leadership.

Robin Wright:

I think that's exactly right. Yeah.

Ian Bremmer:

And Biden is aware of that, is not aware of that?

Robin Wright:

He may be aware of it, but presidents always get wrapped up in what do they have to do on any given day and what kind of pronouncements they have to make. And again, these existential challenges. I think, he's really committed to climate issue. I think in that case, he's very much a 21st century thinker, whether he is in terms of how do you tackle, how do you ensure that the United States is going to be a player. I think there has been a lot of clumsy behavior, particularly when it came to Afghanistan, the way the submarine deal, again, as you've made clear, alienated allies in ways that were totally unnecessary. That if we'd gotten everyone together, and this is where the United Nations, as a forum normally, to kind of talk on the sidelines about what is it that we're going to do together. And there was very little of that. Biden was at the UN for about 24 hours, and a lot of those sideline meetings were limited by mass or they didn't happen at all.

Ian Bremmer:

So you made very clear, that Biden is by far the most experienced foreign policy hand of any president in recent memory. He's done it from the Senate, he's done it from the vice presidency. He's traveled around the world. He knows many of these leaders individually. His cabinet, they're adults. They're also very experienced. They've been around the block. You know them. I know them. Given that, I can see how you could argue 78-year old Biden isn't a 21st century worldview. I've got it. And yet the things that he seems to be doing wrong seem to be about basic execution of stuff that these people should know how to do.

As you've said, if we talk about Afghanistan, if we talk about the submarine deal, if we talk, heck, even about something as simple as the ban on travel from our European allies, which finally is going to be lifted for those that are vaccinated in November. You live in DC, you talk to these people. Why do you think that is?

Robin Wright:

You're right that many of these people are on their second and even third time around, or they've been close to Biden for a very long time. Biden, at the end of the day, makes the decisions. We know that he has sometimes a bit of a temper. He's going to do what he wants to do as he did in Afghanistan over the advice of some of his top generals. I was in Afghanistan with two of them in March as this debate was going on. He thinks he's got a way out and a way into the 21st century. And the problem is, I think he sees ways out of the past, I'm not sure that he gets ways into the future. And I fault some of the people close to him. I'm not sure they're as brave or bold or as big think. They're good thinkers. They're people with integrity. They're not newcomers to foreign policy. But I'm not sure I can identify any one of them that I think is the lightning, the inspiration, the one who's going to be the George Kennan and kind of defining what a different world looks like coming out of conflict.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, presumably Biden doesn't want that.

Robin Wright:

Well, I think every president wants to have people around him who help kind of say, these are new ideas and so forth. And not just ... The way the White House system works, the president gets option papers and he's supposed to check which one he wants to do. And I'm not sure whether there is that, maybe it'd be because people aren't meeting in person as much that there's not as much interaction as there should be. But the thing that was so striking about the United Nations session was how Biden got up and tried to say he was effectively resetting foreign policy, that the era of relentless wars is over and the beginning of relentless diplomacy. Okay, what does that mean? And I'm not sure any of us came away with a better understanding.

Ian Bremmer:

The French would probably not argue that Biden is engaging in relentless diplomacy. And again, the point is here that under Trump, he opposed Europe. He supported Brexit. He was helping people like Marine Le Pen, like Victor Orban. You would understand why the Euro files would really dislike that administration. But Blinken lived in Paris. He speaks fluent French. Kerry is a profound Atlanticist, Bill Burns and Joe Biden himself. So I mean, given that, and they know these people, they understand the continental European perspective. They understand that Boris Johnson can be kind of a buffoon and they opposed Brexit. How could they have gotten themselves so into a corner with the French and the Europeans on this submarine deal?

Robin Wright:

It's mind boggling. And I'd ask you the same question. You answer your own question, because I'm dumbfounded that we're in this position and that whether it was Afghanistan the way we didn't, everyone agreed, yes, we'll pull out, but it was a timing issue. And suddenly the US, it was the next day, we're deploying to get out. With a submarine deal, we didn't talk to them. Over and over these things that we're not discussing with our allies. You tell me.

Ian Bremmer:

Well, it's not because they're wearing masks. I'm sorry. I'm just not willing to give them a COVID pass for something like that. Not with these people. And so that's why that's asking you, what do you think it is? Again, you're in DC, you talk to these people. How do think we got that wrong?

Robin Wright:

My gut is that it's a weak administration, that its hearts in the right place. Is its mind kind of coming up with another and its feet moving fast enough? And the answer is no.

Ian Bremmer:

So that's why I kind of asked a little bit about if there was no Trump, how do you think about this administration? Is this Carter? Is this really good guy we trust, solid experience, solid experience around him, but ultimately, not as strong and decisive leader? Is that what you're saying?

Robin Wright:

Well, Carter didn't have the foreign policy experience and he got sucked into the Iran hostage episode, which this is the problem for every president. There's some issue that diverts their attention and whatever their lofty intentions from the beginning, they can't focus on it.

Ian Bremmer:

And that hasn't happened here because of course, this is a crisis presidency from day one. They're responding to COVID. They have to. That they know.

Robin Wright:

And they've been clumsy even on that in terms of telling people when things are going to happen. And the fact is, we could be doing far more. It's one thing to kind of give a million doses to poor countries, but we're not allowing others the technology to develop themselves. This is an existential issue for the whole world and we're being selfish about the intellectual property. I'm not sure that's the smartest idea. If you're trying to ensure that there's a global economy that comes out of this with any health or that this pandemic doesn't endure kind of indefinitely and becomes part of everyday life, there are a lot of things we could have done a lot earlier. And Biden is one of those who should have done some of them.

Ian Bremmer:

None of the foreign policy stuff gets addressed. But at the end of this year, vaccine rollout looks more impressive. The numbers have gone back down of cases, and more importantly, hospitalizations and deaths. And they've managed to get two and a half, $3 trillion done in infrastructure and social contract. Will you feel differently about the administration if that happens?

Robin Wright:

A little bit. But I worry also that when it comes to the Global Conference on Climate that we're not getting anywhere. John Kerry's gone to China, has talked to the Chinese multiple times, and we're not getting any place. They're saying, "look, you want us to compromise on this issue, well then let's engage in compromises on part of our own global agenda." And I'm not sure we're going to get any place anytime soon on that. Again, where's the muscle?

Ian Bremmer:

How do you get the Chinese? China's made two announcements now on climate, the most recent saying that they're going to stop the investment into coal-fired plants outside of China. But they made that announcement at the United Nations, not with the Americans, not in response to a bilateral call. They certainly don't want to respond to American leadership. China's a powerful country. We need them. They need us. How do you convince? If you're the United States today, how would any administration do a better job in getting the Chinese to do what we want? Obama tried it. That was not very effective, his initial town hall. Trump didn't bother. Biden's not having any success. What do you think?

Robin Wright:

You're far better qualified to answer that question. I'll take a stab at it. And that is that Xi Jinping will do what he wants in a way that doesn't look like he is, whether it's caving or compromising, with the United States. This is a man who is determined to make China the power in the world. And the idea of ceding much ground, even if it's for the health of his own country, I'm not sure he's there. I'm not sure how you deal with China or with Xi Jinping.

Ian Bremmer:

Well, let me turn to the Middle East, the place that you've spent an awful lot of time, and the United States in focusing more on China, seems to be focusing less on the Middle East, and certainly American allies in the region do feel that way. Do you think that the United States should be doing meaningfully less in and with the Middle East? And if so, are we handling that well?

Robin Wright:

So every president has said for the almost 70 years, "we're going to get out of the Middle East." And whether it's deal with the Soviet Union, deal with the other flashpoints, and every president has managed to get sucked back into the region, the most consistently volatile part of the world. The tragedy is the United States is leaving at a time that the Middle East has never been in worse shape. There are more failing or failed or fragile states in the region than at any time since World War II. When you look at whether it's Lebanon, Syria, Iraq's in terrible trouble, Libya, Yemen, other countries, Egypt led by a dictator. The Arab Spring has disappeared-

Ian Bremmer:

Tunisia's not even a good model anymore

Robin Wright:

Across the region. Tunisia is in trouble.

And of course, MBS, Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince in Saudi Arabia and is engaged in kind of murders whenever he doesn't like somebody.

Ian Bremmer:

Sounds like a good time for the Americans to get out.

Well, sure. But there's one big issue looming out there, and that's Iran. And we can't walk away from the Middle East until we resolve the issue that is represented by nuclear weapons, but really, involves now so much more.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, you recently met with the Iranian foreign minister. That's why you came to New York. This is your first time sitting down with him. So why don't you give me first impressions?

Robin Wright:

I'd met him before, but not had a long interview with him. Look, this is a regime that is going to be much harder line. It's much more nationalistic. It's looking at the neighborhood. It doesn't want to reach out to the West as much. It claims that it doesn't need to. That those sanctions imposed by the United States, it's managed to stabilize its economy. It claims that its resistance economy, as it calls it-

Ian Bremmer:

That's what they call it.

Robin Wright:

... will survive, maybe not thrive, but it will survive even without a nuclear deal. I think at the end of the day, they want a nuclear deal. But again, I think we are missing in many ways the threat from Iran. I think there's something very different that's happened, particularly during the Trump era, that the Iranians felt so pressured and so cornered that they worked on their missile program, worked on their drones. And Iran today has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East. Its missiles can reach deep into China and Russia, as far west as Greece and as far south as Somalia and Ethiopia.

Ian Bremmer:

And they launched an attack against Saudi Arabia, their largest refinery, which was quite staggering at the time. That, of course, they've been not in compliance with the United Nations Security Council resolutions on ballistic missiles for quite some time, part of the reason why even with the Iranian deal, we still have sanctions on Iran. Did you get the sense that they would be willing to negotiate on any of those issues, leaving aside the nuclear deal itself?

Robin Wright:

Well, it's the missile issue, it's the intervention in the region, involvement, meddling, whatever-

Ian Bremmer:

Support of terrorism.

Robin Wright:

I don't think that there is any mechanism to compromise. Iran's position on missiles is, okay, you want us to limit ours, then you limit everybody's in the regions, including Israel. And that's a non-starter for Israel, so we're not going to go any place on any of these issues. And the danger is that we've gotten to a place with Iran that it will still be a threat. And with the resistance alliance it has built with its allies in Syria, in Iraq, in Lebanon, in Yemen, they now have missile arsenals from Iran that can hit Israel. Iran never has to lift a finger.

Ian Bremmer:

Do you consider Iraq an ally of Iran today? Because of course, Iraq, it's not quite Lebanon, but I mean it is a differentiated in governance sort of place. Kurd, Sunni, Shia, and they all have different positions.

Robin Wright:

Well, the Iranians will say, look, geographically, Iran is our neighbor, and that's not going to change. We want to be allies with both the United States and Iran. But the reality is that, particularly after ISIS, Iran very cleverly helped foster the creation of dozens, we're talking over 60 different militias, some of them very close to Iran, some of them engaged in transferring missiles and missile kits from Iran through Iraq into Syria and then into Lebanon. That the prime minister, the rule of thumb is, US may have a preference on who's the prime minister, but Iran always has veto power.

And so every country has its own different alliance, this is not something that's exact with each nation, but pull together in terms of what Iran has in terms of a military presence or political influence or its own arsenal deployed in these places. It's trained engineers and scientists in each of these countries. They have their own plants in some of them. That the potential for ... Iran has the most effective alliance in the Middle East. We don't. They do. And that's something they've built up steadily over the last two decades, but particularly during the Trump era.

Ian Bremmer:

And the fact that when General Soleimani was killed by the Trump administration was quite a slap to the Iranians and their response was virtually nothing. Their bluff essentially had been called by the Americans. That didn't seem like they felt like they were in a strong position, at least at that point.

Robin Wright:

So I think the American military would disagree with you there.

Ian Bremmer:

How so?

Robin Wright:

Well, the attack on Al Asad base, and I was there again in March four times and-

Ian Bremmer:

Where Americans were stationed.

Robin Wright:

Where Americans were stationed in which was the target of the Iranian counter attack, and the more than a hundred troops came down with brain injuries. And the Iranians said, that's a warning. And I think neither side wanted to see it escalate beyond that. I think the Iranians were shocked that the Americans would go after Soleimani. In some ways, he was safe because he was so high level, nobody would touch him and that we would do this in Iraq no less, which was an ally, and he was on an official state visit. This was not one of his kind of nefarious trips. But the Iranians, I think, the Americans felt that this was a terrifying turn of events and that it signaled how far Iran was willing to go in using its arsenal. It's one thing to build stuff because you're paranoid or you want to defend yourself. It's another thing to actually fire them against a great power, knowing that it could lead to repercussions and a bigger conflict. I don't think Iran wants that yet.

Ian Bremmer:

So leaving aside the fact that Iran would like to get back into the old nuclear deal because it would reduce sanctions and improve their economy, and they had already been complying with the old conditions. What else do you think Iran actually is looking for strategically in the region right now?

Robin Wright:

Iran views itself, ironically, as strategically lonely, which is why it has built this network, this alliance throughout the region. What it wants in the region is a sense of, I think, security and that it doesn't have to face the kind of war it did in the 1980s when Saddam Hussein invaded one of the Middle East's longest and costliest wars, the use of chemical weapons every year when the world didn't care, that Iran developed a paranoia. It's still a revolutionary environment, remember, and revolutions are always paranoid. We're not to that period of normalcy. I think the Iranians have tried, but there's always been this conflict, most of all with the United States, and they've never gotten to that point.

The revolutionaries are also dying out. They're in their seventies and eighties and many of them are long gone. They're trying to cater to a younger generation. And so ensuring the continuation of the Islamic Republic is part of the goal and that they have to feel, they're not under pressure or threat, whether it's from Israel or Saudi Arabia, and its Sunni allies in the Gulf.

Ian Bremmer:

But their ability to defend themselves, their ability to ensure some level of political stability, economic stability, social stability, the Green Revolution was not so far off. People in America sometimes talk about, oh, could the regime just collapse in Iran? Again, you're meeting with the foreign minister, you're watching what's happening in that country right now. Do you think that they feel more confident, more comfortable that Iran is actually pretty stable today?

Robin Wright:

No. I think there is a deep sense of vulnerability in this pivot for the revolution. When you look at the election of President Raisi in June, the majority of people did not vote.

Ian Bremmer:

Did not vote at all.

Robin Wright:

And Iran has always seen the turnout as a sign of the legitimacy of the revolution. In this case, they were so determined to elect one candidate or ensure that the path to the presidency was clear for him, because again, the supreme leader who's been in power since 1988, '89, he's now in his eighties, and there's a sense that this president will be president when the supreme leader dies, and he could eventually even succeed him. So the political stakes are huge in ensuring its own longevity. So there are a lot of stakes for the regime, and I think they're trying to consolidate so there isn't the kind of division in Iran. Ironically, it has factions and has a feisty parliament, very feisty parliament, or used to, that sometimes when I go to Iran, I kind of think, gosh, I live in Washington. Think I've been there, done that.

Ian Bremmer:

In terms of American foreign policy priorities, where would you put Iran today? Is Iran, in your view, a first order national security concern for the Americans?

Robin Wright:

It's a short-order priority. It's one they want to get through, get back to the JCPOA, get back to where they were so that Iran is not two or three months away from developing enough fuel to fuel a bomb, and then move on. I think this is kind of the last issue in the Middle East, and then let the Middle East do for itself and sort itself out. I think there will be profound concern about Iran's military capabilities, its mischief in the region, but in terms of trying to sort that out, that's one that's a tangible achievement. Check that off the list. You got the nuclear deal, and then you can move on to climate in China and the things that Biden really cares about personally.

Ian Bremmer:

So they got out of Afghanistan, as ugly as it may have been, they need to get the JCPOA, the Iranian nuclear deal done, and then on to the rest of their agenda for the rest of the administration.

Robin Wright:

I think that's where they're going.

Ian Bremmer:

Robin Wright, thank you so much.

Robin Wright:

Thank you.

Ian Bremmer:

That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast. Like what you've heard? Come check us out at gzeromedia.com and sign up for our newsletter, Signal.

Announcer:

The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, places clients needs first by providing responsive, relevant, and customized solutions. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more. And GZERO World also has a message for you from our friends at Foreign Policy. COVID-19 changed life as we know it, but as the world reopens, this moment also presents an opportunity. On Global Reboot, foreign policy looks at old problems in new ways. From US-China relations to gender and equality and racial discrimination, each week, Ravi Agrawal speaks to policy experts and world leaders and thinks through solutions to our world's toughest challenges. Check out Global Reboot wherever you get your podcasts.

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