Podcast: How we avoid irreversible damage & "total disaster": The UN chief's warning for a world experiencing multiple crises

TRANSCRIPT: How we avoid irreversible damage & "total disaster": The UN chief's warning for a world experiencing multiple crises

António Guterres:

We are seeing more and more megaphone diplomacy and less and less discreet diplomacy. If you want to have a result, we need to build confidence, and that is only possible if you do it in a discreet, humble way, making sure that both sides can trust you, that you are not having a different objective, but to solve the problem we need to solve together.

Ian Bremmer:

Hello and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast. This is where you'll find extended versions of my interviews on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and today my one-on-one conversation with UN Secretary-General, António Guterres. I met up with him in New York at the United Nations headquarters just ahead of this year's general assembly, and there was no shortage of issues to discuss from the war in Ukraine to global food insecurity, climate change, and authoritarianism on the rise. Guterres is known for bluntly stating the dangers we're facing and the need for immediate action. He's also been a personal force for hope and for practical solutions. Here's our discussion.

Announcer:

The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, places clients' needs first, by providing responsive, relevant, and customized solutions. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more. In a world upended by disruptive international events, how can we rebuild on season two of Global Reboot, a foreign policy podcast in partnership with the Doha Forum, FB editor-in-chief, Ravi Agrawal engages with world leaders and policy experts to look at old problems in new ways and identify solutions to our world's greatest challenges. Listen to season two of Global Reboot, wherever you get your podcasts.

Ian Bremmer:

Secretary-General Guterres.

António Guterres:

Great pleasure to be again with you.

Ian Bremmer:

Thanks for being here. Absolutely. A year ago, you and I were sitting right here, literally right here, and I remember you said that the world was standing at the edge of the abyss and that was mostly about climate change we were talking. But of course things have gotten a lot more challenging since then. Are we starting to fall in, how do we describe it?

António Guterres:

In addition to climate change, it reminds me of a Portuguese anecdote. When someone is falling from a tenth floor, arriving at the level of the second floor, so far so good. I think that's what happens. With the war of Ukraine, climate change became a second order issue. It's not only much less discussed, but measures that are absolutely essential to be taken, are being postponed and the result is a total disaster. Emissions are growing, and when you have a war with nature and nature is striking back, you have situations like Pakistan, 50 million people displaced. More than 1000 people died, one third of the country covered by water.

We are destroying our planet and we are not paying attention. This climate change is being dealt now as business as usual, as if it was a small problem. And all attentions are focused on Ukraine and a few other things. Climate change is the defining challenge of our time. It must be the first priority of any government and any international organization anywhere in the world. And the fact that we are not dealing with it seriously will have irreversible consequences very soon.

Ian Bremmer:

I'm sitting here talking to you in still very nice weather outside. We know winter is coming to Europe and as you say, steps are being taken to ensure that the Europeans and of course knock on effects, the developing world, is going to have enough energy to get through this crisis. How bad a disruption are we seeing from the Russian War?

António Guterres:

If you look at the developing countries, including many middle income countries, they are facing a perfect storm. They had the climate change impacts, as we all know, but they had the COVID and we know our vaccines were distributed and we know the problems that has caused. Then the recovery from COVID. We are in the US, I am from the European Union. Trillions of dollars have been mobilized to support the economies with the consequence of course, that the populations were supported, but also that there was a contribution to the restart of a global inflationary process.

Now countries in the developing world, including middle income countries, have not the capacity to print money because if they print money, their currencies will completely fall. They haven't received any special support. There was no debt relief except the suspension for the least developed countries. And we have a number of countries close to the verge of defaults with consequences that could be terrible for the world economy, if we have a wave of defaults.

Then middle income countries and all small island developing states are middle income countries, do not receive any kind of concession funding, no grants and no concessional loans from international financial institutions. And there is no debt really for them. Most of them are with high debt, paying more and more high interest rates, and at the same time without any fiscal space. And now they have prices of food and prices of fuel extremely, and energy in general, extremely high.

In many, many circumstances will face famine in the least developed countries in the most dramatic situations, in which climate change is contributing with drought, for instance, in the Horn of Africa. In other situations, you'll have a dramatic financial collapse with terrible consequences for the whole world. And if countries have no fiscal space, how are they going to reorganize their educational systems that were devastated by COVID? How are they going to have a minimum capacity to address the sustainable development goals and the objectives of development? How are they going to address inequalities? Because one of the dilemmas is that this situation is increasing dramatically inequalities, inequalities among states and inequalities among people within each state.

Ian Bremmer:

Would you say that the world today is actually moving backwards on some of these issues?

António Guterres:

Yes and there are divides that are becoming very dangerous. We have the east-

Ian Bremmer:

The West-South divide origin.

António Guterres:

It's the West-South divide. Many people still call it the North-South divide, but it's becoming a West-South divide. And one of the consequences of that is the lack of an effective international solidarity in relation to the war in Ukraine. For many countries in developing world, when they are called to assume a very tough position in relation to Russian invasion of the Ukraine, they will tell that they have other problems that are much more complex and that these problems have been caused largely by a financial system that they consider morally bankrupted. And to a certain extent, I would say it was entirely built by Western countries after the Second World War. We must correct this situation. We must face this divide. And there is only one way to face the divide is for developed countries to assume a strong solidarity with the developing world in relation to their financial situation and in relation to climate.

Ian Bremmer:

Now there is a stronger coordination, a stronger unity among the rich countries in the world in response to the Russian invasion. Is that in any way playing out more broadly to understand, to support the leadership that is required right now, on climate, on poverty, on developing markets, having financial crises, these things?

António Guterres:

Well, one of the things that many developing countries do not understand is if it was possible to have such a, I would say, common position in relation to many aspects of the Russian-Ukraine war in the developed countries, in the G7 and the European Union and the other parts of the developed world. If it is possible to bring them together for that purpose, why is it not possible to bring them together to effectively support developing countries in relation to the recovery from COVID and in relation to climate action?

And so this creates a malaise, this creates a discomfort that translates itself in a divide that is very dangerous. And don't forget, with prices skyrocketing for food and energy, with countries without money to support their populations in this situation, the consequences about social unrest are inevitable. We had Pakistan, we had Sri Lanka and this kind of situations will multiply time and time again. We'll have more and more countries with social unrest, in some circumstances leading to conflict. And this is a threat that to a certain extent, becomes a risk for global security and should not be neglected by those countries that can help reduce this dramatic situation.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, there's been a long story, of course, about how the Americans are responsible for a lot of these challenges, very inward focused right now. The Chinese today are of course the largest creditor for the emerging market countries around the world. They're also very internally focused right now because of zero COVID and low growth, and the rest. Have they been showing any signs of being more constructive, more advanced as they get wealthier as a country?

António Guterres:

I think China is understanding that they need to be more transparent and they need to be more forthcoming in relation to debt relief. And that is absolutely essential. But let's be clear, the way the international financial system was designed, it was essentially by the West. If one looks at the distribution of Special Drawing Rights. Special Drawing Rights is the way to print money without any cost to any taxpayer anywhere in the world. But when those special drawing rights are distributed, they are distributed essentially for the rich countries. And there was a redistribution that was announced. That redistribution has not yet taken place. And when one looks at the future-

Ian Bremmer:

During COVID, in the depths of COVID, the announcement that was made-

António Guterres:

Yes, 16 months ago, the redistribution has not taken place. And when there's news about what might be the redistribution, it is a very small percentage of the total that was allocated. This is an absolutely unacceptable form of injustice that you create resources to the benefit of those that less need them and are not able to redistribute them to those that are in dramatic situations at the present moment. And this creates, as I said, a feeling that makes many of those countries feel not inclined to express solidarity, even in such clear violation of international law-

Ian Bremmer:

As the war in Ukraine.

António Guterres:

... of the UN charter, as it was the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ian Bremmer:

And you see that with the votes. I'm going to turn you to something a little bit more hopeful for a second because you've been pretty busy the last few months, more than usual, if I can say that, as having brokered the deal to get food and fertilizer out of Ukraine and out of Russia, in the middle of an active war zone. How did you get that done?

António Guterres:

Well, I went to see President Putin. I went to see President Zelensky and I told them, "Look, we have a situation that is absolutely dramatic in the world. The food, energy, and finance crisis, it is undermining completely the living conditions of most of the world, and this is caused by this war." On the other hand, Russia, even if the sanctions do not apply to food and fertilizers, the truth is that because of finance, because of insurance, because of shipping, it starts as enormous difficulties in their exports. Ukraine has their silos full of grain. They have a new harvest coming, they have no place to put that harvest, which means they will not cultivate the following year. And this is creating an enormous problem for the Ukraine. The best solution is, let's find an agreement in which the Ukraine is able to export safely. And it was a very complex negotiation because of the problems of security in the Black Sea and the concerns that Ukraine had about the protection of their coast.

But let's find a way in which the Ukraine can export their grain and at the same time, to negotiate with the Americans, with the European Union and with others, the conditions to make sure that what was said, that sanctions do not apply to food and fertilizers becomes a reality, and that Russia is able to export the food and fertilizer the world needs. By the way, fertilizers are extremely important not only for the present situation, but for next year. We are already seeing countries in the developing world where people are cultivating for the next season less than last year.

Ian Bremmer:

Because they don't have access.

António Guterres:

Because fertilizers are too expensive or they're not available. In 2022, we have enough food, it is not well distributed. But in 2023, if we don't normalize the fertilizer market, we simply will not have enough food worldwide.

Ian Bremmer:

With this agreement, are we now getting the fertilizer out, is it sufficient?

António Guterres:

Not yet. There is still a number of obstacles. There was some improvement, but there is still a number of obstacles in which we are working hard with US, with EU, with insurance companies, with harbor authorities and with a number of other actors because it's essential. It's the private sector that does these things. And the private sector needs to feel comfortable that when they do these things, they don't risk to have sanctions over them. And sometimes there is a misty situation that needs to be clarified and some clarifications were issued. And I hope that progressively, the private sector understands that there is a number of things they can do without any risk.

Ian Bremmer:

Still some restrictions. Are those restrictions primarily in preventing the Russians from getting fertilizer out, or is it Russia and Ukraine still?

António Guterres:

No, these restrictions that I'm talking about are in relation to having adequate cost of insurance, access to a certain number of harbors, problems of payments. The Bank of Agriculture, that is the bank debt finances 50% of the exports of Russian food and fertilizers, is not in the swift, it is not in the sanctions, but it's not in the swift. And this creates an enormous set of problems that you can imagine and that we are trying to solve. But as I said, these are one kind of problems. The other kind of problems is of course, the capacity that we have in the Black Sea where obviously we have three harbors, we have a corridor. Things are working very well with the joint coordination committee in which the Ukrainians, the Russians, the UN and the Turks are. But obviously, it is a process that is relatively slow. It's not a normal activity of an harbor in an open sea, and it's working quite well. I must say, I have a lot of admiration for those that are in the joint coordination committee in Istanbul. It has been impeccable, the cooperation, but of course, the Ukraine would have much more things to export in normal circumstances if the war would not exist.

Ian Bremmer:

Of course. Now this is a success of diplomacy, despite the fact that the Russians and Ukrainians have no direct diplomatic engagement whatsoever.

António Guterres:

But this was only possible because it was done very discreetly. For three months, I never mentioned publicly what we're doing. And we heard all kinds of things, but we kept silent and worked slowly to build confidence to allow it to be possible. And this is what the present situation in the world makes more and more difficult. We are seeing more and more megaphone diplomacy and less and less discreet diplomacy. And people even joke, discreet diplomacy doesn't make any sense anymore with all the social media and all these things. It's not true. There are still a number of things in which if you want to have a result, we need to build confidence. And that is only possible if you do it in a discreet, humble way, making sure that both sides can trust you, that you are not having a different objective, but to solve the problem we need to solve together.

Ian Bremmer:

Do you think, given the experience that you and the Turkish government have had on getting the food and fertilizer out, which benefits the Russians, but the Ukrainians are making money too? Not just the rest of the world, but the two combatants, does that make you feel that a similar process could actually move the needle to end the war?

António Guterres:

Not immediately. I think that at the present moment, both sides are convinced that they will win the war, and it is a difficult moment to come to an agreement when this situation is clearly on the table, if you listen to both of them. We had the possibility to reach an agreement about the evacuation of civilians in Azovstal. We have this agreement. There are other aspect. There have been some exchange of prisoners, but we still have a long way to go to create the conditions for a peace settlement. If one looks at the present situation, it's very difficult to conceive a Ukrainian government ready to accept that territory of Ukraine would be lost, and it's very difficult to conceive the Russian Federation just leaving Ukraine. We are still stuck in a conflict that risks to last for a large amount of time and we need to use all opportunities to try to build confidence. Zaporizhzhia is another example, unfortunately-

Ian Bremmer:

The nuclear facility.

António Guterres:

The nuclear facility, unfortunately the shelling is going on, but at least it was possible to have a mission of the International Agency of Atomic Energy going from the Ukraine into Russian control-

Ian Bremmer:

And they're staying there.

António Guterres:

... from Ukrainian controlled territory to Russian controlled territory and staying there, so there are things that are possible and we need to seize all opportunities, even if the perspective of a full peace, I think, is still far away.

Ian Bremmer:

The United Nations is doing a lot to the extent that things are getting done in trying to facilitate better outcomes in this horrible war. What's the additional support, resources, architecture, institutions that the UN needs to be more effective at these kinds of roles going forward, not just around Russian Ukraine, but around the world?

António Guterres:

Well, the geopolitical divides that exists today creates an environment in which every middle size power feels that it can do whatever it wants because there is full impunity, nothing will happen. The capacity of deterrence that would exist if the whole powers with the Security Council will be able to say, "This cannot be done," is not there. So we see a multiplication of small conflicts with different kinds of vectors, and each one of them not paying any attention to what the Security Council decides or even what are the positions of the superpowers because they can play with the divisions among the superpowers. And this makes the system of security governance in the world today, largely bankrupted. And we need to do everything we can to, sooner rather than later, restore some capacity to be able to have mediation working and to make people understand that if they misbehave, they'll be punished.

Ian Bremmer:

NATO is stronger today than it was a year ago. It's expanded its capabilities, it's getting more resources. It's added two members, they have to be ratified. Also, in the last summit you had the Japanese, the South Koreans showing up in Madrid at the head of state level. It's not global, but it is a lot of powerful countries around the world. Do you see an expanded and maybe even more global NATO as part of a solution? Is it a useful step or is it more problematic given how divided the world is geographically?

António Guterres:

No, it is one element that is there, but obviously in a divided world, it is on one side. And the question is how to create the mechanisms of dialogue between the different sides. The Russian invasion of the Ukraine has changed what looked like a new trend for the balance of power in the world. And the new trend for the balance of power in the world was essentially between the US and its allies and China with a growing influence in the developing world. What you have many times written that it was a G2 that led to GZERO.

Now, Russia has shaken this because it's not entirely clear that Russia and China represent the same kind of approach to the world problems. But at the same time, the dialogue between China and the US has always been completely undermined. In the present situation, we are witnessing an increase in division and not a reduction of division. And the fact NATO is stronger, doesn't mean that divide has been reduced.

Ian Bremmer:

Okay, another hopeful piece, I'll drive you back to something more positive. The United States was doing virtually nothing in terms of new climate legislation, and then they pull a rabbit out of the hat with this misnamed Inflation Reduction Act, but still the biggest climate bill that's ever been passed historically in the US. Does this give the Americans more credibility at the upcoming CUP 27? Do other countries around the world see this and say, "Okay, we actually see progress on climate," or is it Way too little, way too late, the Americans have lost their moral authority on the issue?

António Guterres:

I think it is a very important contribution. I'm not sure it is enough, but it's a very important contribution, especially because it came in a moment in which the climate problems seem to be forgotten. And finally, someone woke up and here it is, a program of action aiming, among other objectives, but aiming at strengthening the climate action in the United States. And that was a very important thing. But at the present moment, we need to do much more. Emissions should be reduced by 45% until 2030, if we would be able to reach carbon neutrality in 2050, and not to allow temperatures go above 1.5 degrees in relation to the historic levels.

Now emissions are growing and the risk is if nothing different happens in relation to what has been promised until now, the risk is that we'll have an increase of emissions in 2030 of 14% instead of a decrease of 45%. If this happens, a lot of tipping points will be reached and it'll be irreversibly impossible to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. It will be irreversibly impossible to reach carbon neutrality in 2050, which means that what we are seeing today in Pakistan, will be the new normal of a world that is facing destruction everywhere. And this is the last moment, two or three years we have in front of us, are the last moment to revert this trend. If not, irreversible consequences will take place that will have irreparable damage in our world as we know it.

Ian Bremmer:

And this is not primarily an East-West, a US-Russia, a US-China, this is a West-South divide that is growing.

António Guterres:

It is also something in which it's essential to bring the emerging economies. The emerging economies from the point of view of production, are the largest emitters. If you look at the consumption side, it's still the developed world that is the largest emitter based on the products that they import. But we need to have a solid agreement between developed countries and the emerging economies, in order to be able to allow those emerging economies to reduce emissions. Because if not, and we see now with the consequences of the war in Ukraine, new investments are being made in coal. New investments are being made in oil and gas, and these will have consequences that will take decades to be overcome-

Ian Bremmer:

So this is the-

António Guterres:

And so it's absolutely essential that the coalitions that we have suggested in the last COP and that started to be formed to support India, to support Indonesia, to support Vietnam-

Ian Bremmer:

The agreements on South Africa.

António Guterres:

... South Africa. Those coalitions are essential to create the conditions, financial conditions, and technological conditions for those economies to be able to accelerate their energy transition. If not, the level of emissions will going up and up and the results will be a suicide.

Ian Bremmer:

You literally talk to every global leader in your role at the United Nations.

António Guterres:

I'm not sure if I talk to every, but I talk to many.

Ian Bremmer:

Pretty much every, even when the African leaders come through, you're not doing them in groups, you're seeing them individually. I know what your schedule looks like. Where's the moral authority in this world today?

António Guterres:

The moral authority is in the youth. They have not contributed to the problems that were created, and they will pay the price for everything that is happening. It's young people all over the world that is my most important source of hope.

Ian Bremmer:

And what can the United, you had BTS singing and dancing, and everybody watch that at last year's UNGA, I don't know, I don't think you were necessarily a fan of them before, but they did a lot to help promote the agenda. What can you do?

António Guterres:

Civil society is playing a more and more important role. Business community was moving strongly in the right direction. Until the end of last year, I must say that the financial sector, now to a certain extent, many of the key financial electors rediscovered the interest of fossil fuels, let's be honest. And it's necessary that this changes again. But there are more and more private interests committed to climate action, not to climate change. And the truth is that governments are, in many circumstances, an obstacle to what the private sector wants to do, because of subsidies to the wrong kind of things, because of regulations that are not adapted to the green transition and because of other measures to satisfy interests here and there, which of course have as a consequence, lack of coherence in relation to a climate strategy.

Ian Bremmer:

Young people are also on the short end of so many sticks these days. Education. We see tens of millions of kids that were going to school before the pandemic and may never return. What do you see that can provide some hope to turn that around?

António Guterres:

We will have an assignment on transformative education in September during the General Assembly. It is the main event beyond the General Assembly general discussion, and the preparation has been quite encouraging. We had the pre-summit that went very well. And there is an understanding on one hand, that we need to immediately act in relation to the impact of the COVID. But more than that, it's not only to restore the educational systems we have, it's the recognition that most of our educational systems are not fit for purpose in today's world.

To learn things is less and less important. To learn how to learn is more and more important. But that makes the needs for educational systems, for the teachers, the way they are trained, for the equipment that is available, namely digital equipment, for all that, for the capacity to work in teams. It is a revolution conceiving an educational system in which what is the main objective is to develop the capacity of the students and not to just throw things for the students to learn by heart.

And many of the educational systems we have in the world are still not yet there. And so we need a massive investment in education to correct inequalities that exists. We need to have broadband in all schools everywhere. We need to have a digital access everywhere, in all schools. But we need a transformative approach of education in order to make education an instrument to prepare people for a world that we don't know how it will be. The only thing I know is that my grandchildren will do completely different things in a totally different environment. They need to learn how to adapt, and they need to learn how to cooperate, and they need to learn how to learn, instead of just learning the things that are useful for what I do today.

And education systems are not yet there, and they must be there. And this is a huge effort. We would like to give a strong impulse in our summit. And then education is still in our mind, something for young people. We need lifelong learning. We need permanent education. We need to adapt ourselves to things that are changing very quickly. And what we have learned in the past will not be what we will need in the future. An educational system focused on developing capacities, and an educational system focused on accompanying citizens all over their lives, are two essential transformations that we would like to impulse.

Ian Bremmer:

You're a little older than I am. What's the last big thing that you learned?

António Guterres:

The last big thing that I what?

Ian Bremmer:

Learned.

António Guterres:

Oh, the most important thing that I learned for my activity is that more important than to tell things, is to be able to listen.

Ian Bremmer:

Yeah, I like that. That's not bad.

António Guterres:

It's for a Secretary-General of the United Nations, if you don't listen, if you don't understand what each of the parties to the different conflicts thinks, their culture, their set of beliefs, their nature, you'll never be able to mediate. You'll never be able to bring people together.

Ian Bremmer:

Because fundamentally, the developing world doesn't feel listened to.

António Guterres:

Yes. And to be honest, it is true.

Ian Bremmer:

It is true. We're glad you're here. António Guterres.

António Guterres:

Great pleasure to be here.

Ian Bremmer:

Always a pleasure to see you. Thank you.

António Guterres:

All the best.

Ian Bremmer:

That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast. Like what you've heard, come check us out at gzeroemedia.com and sign up for our newsletter, Signal.

Announcer:

The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, places clients' needs first, by providing responsive, relevant, and customized solutions. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more. In a world upended by disruptive international events, how can we rebuild? On season two of Global Reboot, a foreign policy podcast in partnership with the Doha Forum, FB editor-in-chief, Ravi Agrawal engages with world leaders and policy experts to look at old problems in new ways and identify solutions to our world's greatest challenges. Listen to season two of Global Reboot wherever you get your podcasts.

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