TRANSCRIPT: Unpacking the complicated US-Japan relationship with Ambassador Rahm Emanuel
Rahm Emanuel:
Japan is a crucial ally. Number one foreign investor in the United States for the last four consec years? Japan. Number one foreign investor in Japan for the last four years is the United States of America.
Ian Bremmer:
Hello, and welcome to GZERO World. I'm Ian Bremmer. Today, I'm coming to you live from Tokyo, Japan, to check in on America's pivot to Asia. How's that going? Given that neither Ukraine or Israel are located in the Asia Pacific last I checked, I'd say not so great.
In 2011, then President Obama announced on a trip to Australia that US foreign policy would be shifting its focus away from costly wars in the Middle East and towards strengthening partnerships in the Asia Pacific, in order to curb a rising China. 12 years later, and we're still pivoting. But if we ever do get there, we're going to have to make sure to take Japan, our closest regional ally, along with us.
To talk about US Japan relations, as well as a whole host of sticky policy issues around the world, I'm joined by US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel. Yes, that Rahm Emanuel. Let's get to it.
Speaker 3:
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Ian Bremmer:
Rahm Emanuel, really good to see you. Thank you.
Rahm Emanuel:
Nice to see you. Yeah, sure.
Ian Bremmer:
Start with our home turf here and explain just for a couple of minutes why Japan is such a critical ally of the United States in today's world.
Rahm Emanuel:
Well, one is in probably the most important area of the world, in the sense of longterm over the arc of time, dealing and confronting with China. Japan is your number one ally, not only in the region, I would say one of your number one principle allies in the world. What Japan is doing is part of our greater what I call diplomatic and deterrents.
If you talk to two tactics, I think when you measure up the United States and our allies versus what I think China, Russia, Iran, one on the tactical side, we believe in deterrents and diplomacy. They believe in aggression and repression. You pretty much can see that play out across. Second, as done in Camp David with the President and ROK in Japan-
Ian Bremmer:
Republic of Korea.
Rahm Emanuel:
Yeah, the trilateral principles that were enunciated, we are looking about and talking about a future. You look at China, Russia, they are caught and captive by the 17th and 18th Century, and in the past, and trying to make amends for whatever happened or whatever sense of grievances they have.
Japan is a crucial ally, both on economic terms. Just to bear it down. Number one foreign investor in the United States for the last four consec years? Japan. Number one foreign investor in Japan for the last four years is the United States of America. Second, they're going to go from the ninth to the third-largest defense budget in the world in five years.
Ian Bremmer:
It's meant to be what, 2% of GDP is what they're moving towards right?
Rahm Emanuel:
2%. To Prime Minister Kishida's credit, that's not fully appreciated. He enunciates this months before there was a single tank on the Ukrainian border. There's a lot of part of Europe that still hasn't gotten there.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah, Germany is no where close.
Rahm Emanuel:
Not only going to 2%, they made getting counterstrike a principle piece of that. They placed the order and capacity in one year. It's not to be evenly divided over five years. All of it upfront, because it's such a central part of the overall strategy.
Then on the diplomatic level, in about two weeks from now, the 50-year anniversary of the ASEAN, the Asian countries, will be having their anniversary, their milestone 50 years here, in Tokyo. When on March 2022, the UN was taking a vote, the Japanese government under Prime Minister Kishida pulls all the ASEAN countries together, and eight out of 10 of them vote with the United States. Four of them co-sponsor the resolution, including Cambodia. That's because of Japan.
Now, I happen to-
Ian Bremmer:
Because Cambodia is usually seen as in China's pocket on these bills, right?
Rahm Emanuel:
China and Russia.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
I would say here's where I think mentally. You can basically describe the United States-Japan relationship over the last 50 years as alliance protection. I think the next 50 years will be defined as alliance projection. As partners on economic terms, diplomatic terms, defense terms, security terms, working to project that alliance and its values, interests and its principles into the region. That's why Japan is very, very important.
Then the second thing is it is, I hate to use this political term but I haven't formally worked in politics-
Ian Bremmer:
I remember that.
Rahm Emanuel:
Japan is kind of like the swing state. Having them fully embraced on this effort is key to our strategical changes to China's calculation.
Ian Bremmer:
Which India has a fair amount of too, these days.
Rahm Emanuel:
India does, Korea does, Australia does. Well, I think that gets us into a larger subject that I think a mistake China has made that, in my view, President Biden has made the most of.
Ian Bremmer:
I'll get to that.
Rahm Emanuel:
Okay.
Ian Bremmer:
I'll get to that. But I want to stick with Japan for just a little bit.
Rahm Emanuel:
Sure, sure.
Ian Bremmer:
Would you say that Japan and the Republic of Korea had a pretty dysfunctional, even broken relationship a few years ago? Export controls, big problems over history. That has been facilitated, in part by strong leadership from both countries, but also facilitated, as you say, by the United States. Was that the most meaningful diplomatic breakthrough on the global stage that the Biden Administration's has had the last three years, in your view?
Rahm Emanuel:
Well, if it's not the most, it's definitely a close second. I don't think that's just my assessment, I think that's the President's view. He's quite proud. Why?
One of the principle strategies of China is that the US-Japan are okay, our relationship can never get on the same page. That changed on August 18th at Camp David. Then China immediately said, "Well, we want our trilateral meeting." They just had a foreign ministers meeting, of which their foreign minister refused to have a meal or a press conference at. It fundamentally re-calibrated the calculations of China and it goes to our core strength. We have allies. China does not have allies. We have allies. All three countries, in the last year, wrote their new national security documents. Unbelievably complimentary, unbelievably in sync with how they see the region. The other thing is it aligns the countries politically, diplomatically, and from a defense capacity.
Since August 18th, there have been 18 separate trilateral gatherings. Either heads of state, Secretary of State. A weekend from now, I'll be traveling to Korea for the National Security Advisors trilateral meeting. They've had on the defense side, on the intelligence side. It's an incredible activity on this.
Now look, here's my other thing, if I could take one moment to make this point. I think you and I can both agree, when you look at Europe, you look at the Middle East, kind of dark. It's complicated.
Ian Bremmer:
Two major wars.
Rahm Emanuel:
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
Look, the United States has a complicated relationship with Japan. We have a complicated relationship with Korea. Japan and Korea have a complicated relationship. What stood out in Camp David was we're diplomacy, dialogue and the future trump the past occupying, basically immobilizing leaders. To President Biden's great credit, and I think this goes to not all politics is just local, it's also personal. He built up, I can say right here in Japan, I can't say to the Korea situation, an incredible relationship with Prime Minister Kishida, which allowed him not to do the bear minimum but to extend himself. To get to that place, to Camp David, required leadership on all three leaders' side, but a comfort capacity by the two leaders in confidence in both President Biden and in the United States. They took a step ... Look, you could argue both leaders' politics would be better if they didn't.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
But their strategic position would not be.
Ian Bremmer:
Because the nationalism at home clearly moved in the other direction for both of them.
Rahm Emanuel:
Different, a little more accentuated in Korea than here in Japan, for obvious reasons. Looking around the world, and you could say expanding NATO under President Biden at this critical juncture, major, major diplomatic accomplishment. But there's no doubt what happened at Camp David, from a diplomatic side, strategic side, is if it's not number one, it is a very, very tight second.
Ian Bremmer:
Now, let me push you a little bit on something you said on the future of the Japan relationship. You said in that last 50 years, it was protection of alliances.
Rahm Emanuel:
Alliance protection.
Ian Bremmer:
Versus alliance projection.
Rahm Emanuel:
The next 50 will be alliance projection.
Ian Bremmer:
I'm sure you've never said that before, this is the first time, on this show. Well, it was twice.
Rahm Emanuel:
Well, it will be the first time with you.
Ian Bremmer:
Okay. Well, that's good. There you go. Is it not challenging in this environment of extraordinary political uncertainty in the United States? Where allies all over the world are saying, "You can't be consistent from Administration to Administration." We can talk about a lot of things, some of which are in Asia, some of which are all over the world.
If you're Kishida-san, how can you have confidence that the Americans are going to be there after this electoral cycle? How can you have confidence that the Americans can talk about 10, 20, 30 years down the road, in the way that Japanese have more comfort themselves?
Rahm Emanuel:
Well, they made certain decisions because it's in their strategic interest. I will say this, maybe it is my good fortune of being worked now in three Administrations, this being my third, but also been in the legislative branch. Outside of Israel, I don't know of another country that has this deep bipartisan support as Japan.
Let me give you one reference.
Ian Bremmer:
I'd probably throw Canada in there, but okay, yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
Okay, okay. You could throw Canada in, that's fine. Outside of either the Atlantic or Pacific, how's that?
Ian Bremmer:
There you go. Okay, yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
Now we narrowed it down, okay? But what I mean by that is here in Japan, the President's been here twice. Vice President, twice. Speaker McCarthy's been here, Nancy Pelosi's been here. Everybody in the cabinet's been here but four members, and over 102 members of the United States Congress, and there have been 20 governors in just the last year. That's just the last ... I'm for COVID restriction when it comes to travel, I am tired of it, but it tells you how deep the support for Japan has become. There's no state where Japan does not have a major company invested in and doing a major investment, as reflective of what I said to you earlier, largest investor for the last four years consecutive. It has a deep well of support in the Congress, a deep well of support in strategic plan throughout the government, meaning on the national security side, on the commercial side and on the diplomatic side.
I do think when they look at this, they understand that the roots of Japan from a bilateral relationship and the roots from Japan in a regional perspective run deep.
Ian Bremmer:
That's fair.
Rahm Emanuel:
You can never go anywhere from here to there without Japan, so therefore I think you can look at the United States' politics, but you can also look at Japan's interest and where it lies in the United States, and that's a safe bet.
Ian Bremmer:
You think, despite the fact ... Again, there are leaders in the world, certainly the Japanese are one, Modi is a second, I'd probably point to a few in the Middle East as well that would say, "You know what, no matter who the American leader is, I feel like I'm going to reasonable comfortable." But when Trump was President, he was pushing pretty hard on trade deficit, pushing pretty hard on, "I just want to do deals." The strength of the alliance isn't necessarily so important. Now he got along with well with Abe, but certainly I feel, from my conversations with Japanese leaders, that they are scared about 2024. I'm sure they tell you that too, privately. What do you say to reassure them?
Rahm Emanuel:
Well, I walk because there's an interest. I look at that interest as so keenly aligned. It's aligned not just because of China in the region, because of economic, diplomatic, and deterrence levels. I talk about American politics, but they also have their politics.
Look, I just left a meeting with Korean leaders in the diplomatic area. One person asked about elections. I said, "Look, all three governments are going to have elections." Nobody knows how it turns out. That said, the strategic interests have consistency. The elections may fluctuate. I don't believe they will in the United States. But strategic interests align.
Ian Bremmer:
Okay. I would push back that the level of uncertainty in Japanese elections in the future is somewhat restrained compared to that of the United States. I suspect you agree with me.
Rahm Emanuel:
Yeah. This is the closest thing I've seen. Yes, I do think Japan's politics, at least in the post World War II by my study of it, is the shift is more within the LDP.
Ian Bremmer:
Exactly, Liberal Democratic Parties.
Rahm Emanuel:
Than it is about parties.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah. Fair enough. Okay, let's move on. On China, you said that China doesn't have allies. We have allies. We, the United States, have allies.
Look, the Chinese don't like you. You're not paid for the Chinese to like you, I think that's okay.
Rahm Emanuel:
Let me say this.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
They're not getting their money's worth.
Ian Bremmer:
Well, there you go. Question. Would you say, in your view, do the Chinese have transactional relationships?
Rahm Emanuel:
Unpaid.
Ian Bremmer:
Unpack that statement for me a little bit.
Rahm Emanuel:
Well, let me first of all give you my mental landscape. I describe ... There's more than one China. There's what I call the three Cs, calm, conflict and charm.
Starting at the core, it's a relationship between the Communist Party and the people of China. That calm is rattling hard and its biggest deterrence on them doing anything outside because the economy, one indication, one model of this, outside of Ecuadorians, Venezuelans, and Haitians, the number one people crossing the border into the United States are Chinese.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
These are middle class people fleeing-
Ian Bremmer:
It also tells you there's a lot of them, by the way. There is that.
Rahm Emanuel:
There is.
Ian Bremmer:
It's not a percentage thing.
Rahm Emanuel:
The high end is also fleeing to Singapore. The largest real estate buyers here in Tokyo are Chinese.
Ian Bremmer:
Okay.
Rahm Emanuel:
Money and people are fleeing. That calm is not calm, it's a nightmare.
Number two. In the region, you name me a country they're not in conflict with. Two border wars, conflicts with India, five missiles into Japan's EEZ, Philippines constantly harassing their coast guard. You just go through the region, there's Australia's flights, our flights, Navy ships just off in the South China Sea with the United States. They have a problem with almost every country in the region, so I would say to you when you look at this, that area of conflict, they have in their own way heated up. They don't have the alliances we have.
It is our strength. To President Biden's great credit, not just because an Ambassador appointed by him, he has rejuvenated and re-energized the notion of alliance. You can see it Europe and you can see it in this region. Just take this region in the last two-and-a-half years. You have August, you have the trilateral, you has what has happened under the quad. You have our investment in the blue oceans areas of the islands, of Solomon Islands, and Papua, New Guinea, go through those islands. You see what we're doing with Australia and New Zealand, on the economic terms, Singapore. India, on a bi-lat. That brings a level of strength and China takes note of these relationships. Not just on the diplomatic side, but on the security side, the defense side and the deterrent side.
They don't have allies. They may have financial relationships, but those financial relationships come with subjugation. Name me a country that wants to extend their belt and roads initiative on the same terms. I got a lot of countries that have a tremendous amount of debt, and have lost all their independence and sovereignty. That is not what allies ... Alliances are built out on friendships. China doesn't. Actually, it's a tremendous strength of ours, matched up against the tremendous weakness of theirs. When you're in an operation like this, you double down on your strengths that accentuate your opposition's weaknesses.
Ian Bremmer:
You were there in San Francisco for the APEC meeting, and most importantly, when Biden met with Xi Jinping. Certainly, it feels like there was more progress in that meeting, those three meetings, this time around than was expected or than we've seen previously in the Biden Administration. Do you think we are seeing stabilization to a degree for a period of time in US-China relations or not?
Rahm Emanuel:
It's fair for you to ask that. It's a fair question. I think one, you don't need me for this, it's self-evident. The President went into that meeting with wind at his back, China went in it with wind in his face. As I always said when I walked out of there at the beginning of APEC, they leave the meeting, President Xi goes to have a meeting with American CEOs who give him a standing ovation, hasn't said anything. The President of the United States goes to a meeting and to an event to kick off, and all the heads of state are there. That tells you about alliances, that tells you about the interests of China. I thought that-
Ian Bremmer:
It also tells you a little bit about American CEOs, but you probably don't want to go there.
Rahm Emanuel:
I'll go there.
Ian Bremmer:
Okay.
Rahm Emanuel:
I think the American CEO is way too influential on American foreign policy in this region, way too influential. I think it was amazing to me that they gave a standing ovation for very little acknowledgement, since none of them can staff their offices in China because people will not move from America because a fear of them getting arrested. President Xi's policies, China's Communist Party's policies have put a massive chill on their own investments. I think the CEOs showed a lack of appreciation and understanding of the challenges that they face.
When I was chief of staff offices, every one of them will tell you how their research and development was being-
Ian Bremmer:
Stolen.
Rahm Emanuel:
Stolen, or they had to hand it over. I don't think we, both Democrat and Republican Administrations, as people who give companies a tax cut to do research and development, should have stood up and said, "We have an interest in your R&D. You don't get to just hand it over." We let our guard down, all of us. I don't blame them alone, I blame us also because we allowed too much of our national security interests to be commercialized. I think the President is self-correcting that, in that interest.
Second thing is I think it's a good thing that the meeting happened, I think it's a good thing to have dialogue. They clearly had a good dialogue. It was, I think, a good meeting. But you don't hit an equilibrium, you work at it every day. You work at diplomacy every day, you work at deterrents every day, and you ensure that your interests are advanced. It's not like you hit a point and you hold. We agree that we'll have some conversation on the defense.
Ian Bremmer:
Mil to mil side, yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
But there's nobody yet announced for Minister of Defense, so it's very hard to have that conversation without it. It's one of the big outcomes of it.
I do think, and you and I talked about this in San Francisco, and I think this I think an opportunity, not just with China but for the United States. We're sitting here doing this meeting while COP 28 is happening.
Ian Bremmer:
In Dubai, yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
Yeah. Climate, AI, and you'd have to say global pandemics, given that the pneumonia that just looks like it broke out in China. Not looks like, it did.
Ian Bremmer:
It did, yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
When you look at all of those, and then you look at the architecture that's set up post World War II, I think these new challenges give us an opportunity to modernize and initiate a system to manage both current and future threats that we have a self-interest. But it requires a level of trust and a level of transparency that, if you want to be a global leader, you're going to have to sign on to. You have an opportunity, you want to be part of the global order, rules-based system that you think you had some role in playing? Okay, let's go. I think that's what the President laid down.
When you really blow through all the smoke, whether it was on climate, whether it was on the AI, drugs in the sense of subgroups, like gangs and drug dealers dealing with fentanyl, and you deal with pandemics or future pandemics, calling on China to be a global leader with global responsibilities. You can't allow another almost potential public health crisis and don't become fully transparent with the international community. That's just not a global leader.
Ian Bremmer:
The reality is there was no level of cooperation from the Chinese government when the pandemic broke out.
Rahm Emanuel:
What I do think is that none of the lessons that should have been learned out of COVID seemed to have taken hold. Basically, if you want to be a global leader, great. It comes with responsibilities. If you want to be a global leader, you can be part of writing the future or not, because I think that's a challenge.
Ian Bremmer:
Kissinger just died. I'm wondering, we don't have a new Kissinger, but if we did, how would that person need to be different, visa vie China, to be effective in your view? In today's world.
Rahm Emanuel:
I've tried to read almost everything of the obituaries, the announcements, the criticism, et cetera. There's a challenge here. What I mean by that is it's a different world. It's not that there are different centers of power, and there are different centers of power where the binary choice was a little, I don't want to say easier, but you could get your hands around it. If I agreed Kissinger and Nixon are correct, that they opened to China was to leverage Russia, I don't think you can open up to China or engage China with the idea that you're going to leverage Russia. China can be helpful, but they see too much of Russia in their interests. That's why our strategy of accentuating our strength, which is our diplomatic capacity, our deterrents capacity, I think matters tremendously to how to activate that. Again, this is hard informed policy and anything. Where does deterrents end and provocation begin?
Having a very robust deterrents, and I say deterrents meaning not just military, diplomatic efforts like Camp David is deterrents.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah, economic sanctions is also, sure.
Rahm Emanuel:
Well, economic sanctions and economic growth.
Ian Bremmer:
Sure, both. Yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
I think always say to China, and I would be an articulate to this, "You did not take X 100 million people out of poverty. The world system you were a part of allowed you to do it. You've turned your back on it, and since that time, your economy has shrunk, your middle class has shrunk, your youth have given up on you." You have unemployment in China among youth that's greater than any poverty area, of any urban area in America.
Ian Bremmer:
Which is why they've stopped publishing debt, yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
Yeah, well that doesn't solve the problem. When you have a one child policy, there's a lot of very angry Chinese mothers. To me you say, "There's always an opportunity for you to have a seat at the table, but here's what we're going to do if you decide not to take that seat." That's what I think has to be articulated. It's not some way to hark back to some ... I'm not saying it wasn't nostalgic, the play of China and Russia at that point worked. It doesn't mean the play today is the same play. There's a skillset of engagement with a sense of an opportunity as well as a cost, and that's got to be clear.
Ian Bremmer:
Before we close, I want to open the aperture with you a little bit, since you're not just Ambassador to Japan, you've got some thoughts on global issues and a lot of experience on them.
Rahm Emanuel:
Yeah, I have probably more global thoughts than I'm allowed.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah. Well, I want to see how many I can get you to talk about anyway. I'll put it in the context of we've been discussing a pivot to Asia for a long time, but that's a lot harder when Europe and the Middle East are as dark as you described it.
Rahm Emanuel:
I hate that whole term. If you're a superpower-
Ian Bremmer:
You play everywhere.
Rahm Emanuel:
Yeah, you have to.
Ian Bremmer:
But you have to prioritize as well.
Rahm Emanuel:
Sure. We're looking at these two wars.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah. Unlike the US-China relationship, which has interdependencies and guardrails. When I look at the Middle East war right now, and I look at the Russian Ukraine war right now, I don't see those things. I see both of them getting not resolved any time soon. In fact, probably getting worse. How do you respond to that?
Rahm Emanuel:
Let's take Ukraine first. I think that's one of endurance. When you say resolved, I think our determination to stay the distance will have an impact so actually, that tactic has strategic value.
Ian Bremmer:
And is increasingly open to question.
Rahm Emanuel:
You and I are sitting here today ... I haven't been in Congress, I've negotiated other things as a chief of staff and as a senior advisor. Based 8000 miles away, 14-hour difference, I believe it will get resolved before the holiday season. I can be wrong, but I see a lot of interests more aligned. It's actually interesting, I think there's more alignment on Israel and in Ukraine, and the real issue is in around the border, and refugee and asylum. But I do think that will find a way because there's other interests that have to get motivated and moved.
If that happens, I think Europe will move in the other way, strategically. I do think Russia's interests in Ukraine, they will come, if we show our endurance level, will come to the conclusion the cost to Russia, not just at home, but across the globe, as Azerbaijani and Armenia showed. Even something that they had a key strategic interest-
Ian Bremmer:
And ultimately could play virtually no role and got resolved against them.
Rahm Emanuel:
Yes.
Ian Bremmer:
Yeah.
Rahm Emanuel:
Their dependence on North Korea will come-
Ian Bremmer:
For ammunition.
Rahm Emanuel:
Right, for ammunition and what they handed over in violation of the UN Charter that they were a signatory, or sanctioned.
Ian Bremmer:
In terms of new technologies?
Rahm Emanuel:
Yeah. I think that there's a cost pressure here. Now, the Middle East as it relates to what's happening now, I think there's ... I have to be careful, no matter how much I would to get out of my lane, I can't get out of my lane. But I think on this, this is not just a Hamas-Israel issue. This deals with something fundamental to the core of Israel's security. I think we're at a period of time, given what's happening in the North, what's happening in the South, being Lebanon border, Gaza, and Syria, and then you can say the West Bank, I think we're at the beginning of something that's more long-
Ian Bremmer:
Regional.
Rahm Emanuel:
Yeah. Not regional, but longterm in Israel's security, which is essential to our security interests as a country.
Ian Bremmer:
Certainly, look in the last 24 hours since we've had this conversation, you've had significant escalation not just in terms of the war to the South of Gaza, but also in terms of the Houthis, strong Iranian supported proxy in the region, directly and repeatedly attacking shipping and a US military vessel.
Rahm Emanuel:
This doubles back to one thing.
Ian Bremmer:
Deterrents?
Rahm Emanuel:
Well, it talks about both the alliance of projection in the United States and Japan, and then global responsibilities.
A week ago, when a ship was set out in that area, an SOS. All of us have a compact as it relates to dealing with piracy. Japan and the United States military responded, China did not. They had received the SOS and they had three ships in the region.
Ian Bremmer:
And they're part of the pact?
Rahm Emanuel:
And they're part of the pact.
Ian Bremmer:
And they refused to do that?
Rahm Emanuel:
They didn't tell me. They didn't call me and give me a brief. But what we do know is they received the SOS and didn't react. You cannot be a global leader without global responsibilities that people can rely on.
When I say about alliance projection, Japan, they have one of the only places in the world that have a military presence is in Djibouti. They responded and they did their part of their contractual and international obligations, as did our Navy. That's a telling sign, I think.
Yes, the Houthis have done this. I will take note that you only need one mistake, but the United States Navy and the service men and women, as a father of a Navy officer, have done an incredible job in the last three weeks in intercepting, whether it's a drone, cruise missile, or some other type of missile. Our technology has shown it's real capabilities. And more than technology, the training we give our men and women to operate.
Ian Bremmer:
I am hearing, and I want to make sure I got this right, that of these two conflicts, the one in the near to medium term you are more concerned about is in the Middle East?
Rahm Emanuel:
I am because that has a potential to spiral and bringing other players in that has a conflict. I'm giving you just my view.
Ian Bremmer:
That's all I'm asking for.
Rahm Emanuel:
No, I know, but I want to be careful. I don't see Russia's capacity because I think that when you look at the loss of life, loss of ammunition, loss of armor and a telling sign of what happened, something that they would say they have a keen strategic interest, and they could not respond this summer between Azerbaijani and Armenia, where they have an obligation. That tells you the ability for this to spiral out into a NATO country, not that you shouldn't be nervous about it, but NATO has been activated in a way that we haven't seen in the last 15 years. But given Iran, given Hasbullah, given the West Bank, but given Gaza Strip, given the Houthis in Yemen, it's a close quarter and there's more than one player here.
Ian Bremmer:
And there ain't no NATO in the Middle East.
Rahm Emanuel:
No, there is no NATO in the Middle East, but you can see the level of deterrents that the United States brought had its own impact.
Now, if I could on a more ... I don't want to end on a negative. You look at this region and this is an example where deterrents has had exactly that impact. Diplomacy has had exactly that impact. You have exactly the same interests of revisionism, chasing something of the past, not dealing with the future. I think the President and the team that I'm a part of has made the most, in the last three years, of putting in place the core cornerstones and the core principles of our strategy of deterrents and diplomacy in combination with our allies, and it's having a real impact and made the most of what I think are major mistakes by the Chinese Communist Party in the last three years.
Ian Bremmer:
Rahm Emanuel, thank you very much.
Rahm Emanuel:
Thank you.
Ian Bremmer:
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Speaker 3:
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