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Last Thursday, Brazil’s Supreme Court delivered a historic verdict: Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president who tried to overturn the 2022 election, was convicted along with seven close allies for conspiring against democracy and plotting to assassinate his rivals, including President Lula. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison and barred from office until 2060. At 70, he will likely spend his remaining years behind bars.
Last Thursday, Brazil’s Supreme Court delivered a historic verdict: Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president who tried to overturn the 2022 election, was convicted along with seven close allies for conspiring against democracy and plotting to assassinate his rivals, including President Lula. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison and barred from office until 2060. At 70, he will likely spend his remaining years behind bars. (Though if he makes it to 105, he might still be viable in American politics.)
The decision was hardly surprising – the only thing unexpected was Justice Luiz Fux's dissent in the five-judge panel. The evidence against Bolsonaro was overwhelming, making a successful appeal unlikely. This marks the first time in Brazil’s history that a coup plotter has been brought to justice – a staggering win for the rule of law in a country that only returned to democracy in 1985 after two decades of military dictatorship.
But anyone expecting this moment to turn the page on the radical polarization of the Bolsonaro era and heal Brazil’s political wounds is in for a rude awakening. If anything, the ruling will deepen Brazil’s existing divides and further erode trust in institutions – courts, the media, political parties – heading into next year’s presidential election. The country remains as hopelessly divided as ever, with 51% of Brazilians approving the conviction while 43% see it as political persecution – reflecting partisan opposition to and support for Bolsonaro.
And also no surprise: US President Donald Trump is pouring gasoline on the fire. Bolsonaro’s friend and ideological ally has called the trial a “witch hunt” and weaponized American leverage to bully Brazil into dropping the charges. Even before the verdict came down, the White House had slapped 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, revoked travel visas for government officials and Supreme Court justices, and hit Alexandre de Moraes – the lead judge on the case – with Magnitsky sanctions typically reserved for the world’s worst human-rights abusers. Following the conviction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio promised America would "respond accordingly" to what he called an "unjust" ruling. More visa suspensions, expanded Magnitsky sanctions, and potential penalties against state-owned Banco do Brasil are on the way.
But Trump's attempts to help Bolsonaro will continue to do the exact opposite. The ex-president’s son Eduardo, a congressman close to Steve Bannon who moved to Texas and has been lobbying the White House for tougher measures against his own country, is now hugely unpopular at home and faces potential criminal charges. By contrast, President Lula has seized the moment to rally Brazilians around the flag, casting himself as the defender of national sovereignty against Trump and the Bolsonaro clan. His defiance has boosted his popularity and, together with easing inflation, makes him a narrow favorite heading into 2026.
Meanwhile, both countries will lose as US-Brazil relations sink further, especially if Lula’s retaliation leads to a tit-for-tat escalatory spiral. But Brasilia, like most other world capitals, is already hedging away from US leverage – deepening ties with Europe, China, the Middle East, Mexico, Canada, and potentially ASEAN to make sure Washington is less able to hurt it in the future (more on this here). The ultimate casualty may be the century-old partnership between the Western Hemisphere's two largest democracies.
What about a get-out-of-jail-free card? Bolsonaristas have been pushing for an amnesty bill that would pardon everyone involved in the January 8 coup attempt, including the former president. But the bill faces (very) long odds. Never mind that more than half of Brazilians oppose full clemency for Bolsonaro – so does most of the Senate leadership. Plus, the Supreme Court has already signaled that crimes against democracy aren’t pardonable, rendering any blanket amnesty law unconstitutional. Lawmakers might agree to reduce sentences for the 1,600 rank-and-file Jan. 8 rioters in order to break the current congressional deadlock. But, for now at least, Bolsonaro and his inner circle look set to do serious time.
And yet, even from behind bars, the ex-president will remain the undisputed leader of the opposition. He’s still competitive with Lula in hypothetical head-to-head polls, and his martyr status with his base guarantees he’ll be the kingmaker of the Brazilian right in 2026. Whoever he anoints to succeed him will almost certainly make it to the run-off. His goal will be to install someone who is likely to both beat Lula and secure his freedom.
But wait – didn’t I just say that Bolsonaro can’t be pardoned? Yes, but here’s the twist: Though the current Supreme Court says pardons for anti-democratic crimes are unconstitutional, the next president will have a chance to reshape the court’s composition, and Justice Fux's dissenting vote suggests that a different court might view the ex-president’s case more favorably. That means Bolsonaro’s path to freedom may depend less on today’s legal rulings than on the outcome of the next election.
So, who will get the nod to lead the right in 2026? Bolsonaro is torn between loyalty and electability. His first choice, a family member (whether one of his three sons or his wife, Michelle), guarantees the former but is a tougher sell to swing voters, especially given their associations with Trump's politically toxic penalties. The other option is São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who has real national appeal and polls better against Lula. Popular, pragmatic, and disciplined, Freitas has been making all the right noises for the convicted ex-President, criticizing the court, pushing Congress for amnesty, and vowing to pardon Bolsonaro on day one. Justice Fux’s dissent strengthens the case, however thin, for Freitas to argue that he’s better placed to negotiate a future pardon with a reconstituted Supreme Court and therefore that he’s Bolsonaro’s best shot at freedom.
Yet Bolsonaro also knows that if Freitas backtracks on his promise or his pardon hits a judicial wall, the former president could be left to rot in jail while his successor consolidates power. That’s why, even if Freitas looks like the logical choice today, Bolsonaro will likely keep his cards close to his chest right up to the filing deadline, when he could go either way.
Brazil’s democracy emerged from its coup attempt stronger than before. Institutions held firm, justice was served, and the rule of law carried the day. That’s more than the United States can say. But it’s only half the battle. Courts can send a former president to prison; they can’t send him into political oblivion or unite a country that’s split right down the middle. Bolsonaro may spend the rest of his life behind bars, but his influence – and the nation’s bitter divides – will continue to shape Brazilian politics for years to come.
Major western countries are going to recognize Palestine for the first time. Here’s why it matters.
As leaders from around the world arrive in New York for this year's United Nations General Assembly, one of the thorniest global issues hangs over the proceedings.
“Palestine is going to be the elephant in the room,” said Palestinian ambassador to the UN Riyad Mansour during an interview with GZERO this week in New York.
That’s because in the coming days several major Western powers are set to recognize Palestinian statehood for the first time. France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Malta will all take this step.
What does it mean to recognize Palestinian statehood? Palestine exists in a paradox: it enjoys international recognition from nearly 150 countries, which allows it to field Olympic teams, maintain diplomatic missions abroad, and participate –partially, as an observer state – at the UN. Yet it lacks agreed upon borders, an army or capital, or full sovereignty under Israel’s ongoing occupation. France, in its announcement of its intention to recognize Palestine, said it was doing so to “reaffirm the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination.” It also stressed that it was recognizing Palestinian Authority (PA), which is based in the West Bank, rather than Hamas, which rules Gaza, as having sovereignty over all of the Palestinian territories, because the PA “has come out strongly in favor of the two-State solution and peace.”
Why are they recognizing Palestine now? All of these countries have historically showed strong support for Israel, and none of them voted in favor of Palestine’s UN observer status more than a decade ago. But the scenes of starvation in Gaza and mounting anger over the ferocity of Israel's prolonged military campaign in response to the Oct. 7th attacks, have shifted public opinion in many of these countries. In the UK, polling has showed increasing sympathy for Palestine over Israel, rising from 15% following the Oct. 7 attacks to 37% as of July of 2025. Meanwhile, support for Israel has fallen to 15%, with 51% of Britons saying that its actions are unjustified.
“Millions of people in these nations are pressuring their governments to do more in order to stop the genocide,” says Mansour, “to recognize the legitimate national rights of the Palestinian people to self determination, to statehood and the right of the refugees.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has said recognizing a Palestinian state "rewards Hamas's monstrous terrorism and punishes its victims." The US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said that "what destroyed the negotiations for the hostages was the European nations going and having this push for a unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state... it destroyed negotiations."
The US, consequently, has denied visas for over 80 Palestinian representatives, including Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. The White House says Palestinian officials have undermined Gaza negotiations by appealing to international criminal courts that have accused Israel of war crimes and by seeking UN recognition.
Will this recognition have a real effect? Not on the ground, at least not immediately. The UN as such exerts little influence over Israel.
But the fact that powerful G7 countries have taken this step for the first time does signal a changing tide of opinion in the West, in particular among some of Israel’s staunchest backers.
It also gives Palestine the support of four of the UN Security Council's five permanent members – France, the UK, China, and Russia. That leaves the US, Israel's strongest ally by far, in a minority of one.
The moves come as Gaza negotiations are more stalled than ever. The Israeli military invaded Gaza City yesterday, and last week killed several senior Hamas leaders involved in negotiations in Qatar. Meanwhile, Hamas has shown no willingness to release the remaining Israeli hostages before there is a ceasefire.
Recognition or not, Mansour says a ceasefire remains the most important priority. “A ceasefire saves lives and potentially allows for the release of the hostages, but the continuation of the war takes lives and threatens the lives of the hostages.”
Hard Numbers: Trump’s UK state visit begins, Brazil court fines Bolsonaro for racist comment, Ecuadorians protest new gold mine, & More
US President Donald Trump, King Charles III, First Lady Melania Trump and Queen Camilla during the ceremonial welcome at Windsor Castle, Berkshire, on day one of the president's second state visit to the UK, on September 17, 2025.
150: Pageantry will dominate the first day of US President Donald Trump’s state visit to the United Kingdom on Wednesday, culminating with an exclusive 150-person white-tie state banquet, featuring a toast to the president by King Charles III. The harder-edged politics will come on Thursday, when Trump meets with Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
1 million: Days after being sentenced to 27 years in prison for fomenting a coup, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is in trouble with the law again. A federal court ordered him to pay a fine of 1 million reais ($188,865) for a racist comment he made to a Black supporter in 2021, telling him that his hair was a “cockroach breeding ground.”
$400 million: The Democratic Republic of the Congo is investing $400 million in satellite internet in a bid to improve the country’s drastically low connectivity rate. Only one in three Congolese is connected to the mobile internet. The company completing the project is co-owned by the Turkmenistan government.
90,000: An estimated 90,000 protestors took to the streets of Cuenca in central Ecuador to protest the construction of the Loma Larga gold mine there. Local residents are concerned the Canadian-run project will contaminate a critical water reserve.
47: Ben & Jerry’s co-founder Jerry Greenfield is leaving the ice cream giant that he founded 47 years ago in protest against its parent company Unilever for limiting his firm’s social activism. Greenfield is an outspoken progressive, and previously tussled with Unilever when Ben & Jerry’s refused to sell ice cream to Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
What We’re Watching: China bans Nvidia chips, Fed holds big meeting, Saudi Arabia pulls plug on music lounges
Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang speaks to journalists as he arrives for a press conference at Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Beijing, China, on July 16, 2025.
China bans Nvidia’s last AI chip as its domestic industry catches up
China has ordered major tech firms, including Alibaba and ByteDance, to stop buying Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D AI chips, effectively banning them. The move shows Beijing is confident that its own rapidly-advancing domestic producers can now rival Nvidia’s offerings. Curiously, the decision comes just weeks after US President Donald Trump gave Nvidia the green light to sell chips in China in exchange for the US government getting a cut of the revenue. Will Beijing’s new ban stay in place, or is China merely jockeying for leverage ahead of an expected Friday phone call between Trump and President Xi Jinping?
A Fed cut is coming – but what are the caveats?
The US Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the first time this year at its meeting today, with investors anticipating a quarter-point cut. A rapidly-cooling labor market is pushing the Fed to cut rates. There are things to watch: first, what are the Fed’s predictions about growth and inflation later this year? Prices jumped last month as the effect of Trump’s tariffs filtered through, strengthening the case against further rate cuts. Second, how will Trump respond? He has threatened Fed Chair Jerome Powell with removal for not lowering rates fast enough, and is embroiled in a legal fight about whether he can fire Fed governor Lisa Cook.
Saudi Arabia’s liberalization streak faces the music
Authorities in Riyadh and Jeddah have shuttered at least two dozen music and performance “lounges” in recent weeks. The venues, which permit shisha smoking and mixing of the sexes, have proliferated since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman began a sweeping liberalization of the Kingdom’s ultra-strict social rules several years ago. Authorities officially cite public health concerns as the cause for the closures, but the move comes amid a backlash against the venues from conservative Saudis, who view them as vice-promoting nuisances.
Hard Numbers: Russia reportedly indoctrinating kidnapped Ukrainian children, Fed to discuss rate cuts amid political firestorm, Argentina’s Milei presents budget, & More
Protesters led by children march in London, United Kingdom, on June 1, 2025, demanding the release of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia and an end to Russian aggression in Ukraine.
210: The Kremlin is holding Ukrainian children at 210 different sites across Russia, according to a Yale University report, and forcing them to have re-education sessions and military training. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has regularly cited the abductions as evidence that Moscow is committing genocide in Ukraine. Kyiv estimates that 20,000 children have been taken since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
€1 billion: Poland increased its cybersecurity budget from €600 million ($708m) to €1 billion ($1.18b) after Russian hackers targeted its hospitals and Warsaw’s water supply. The Polish foreign minister said the country faces 20-50 cyber threats to critical infrastructure each day, most of which it thwarts.
3: The US military hit a Venezuela drug boat on Monday, killing three people. The attack marks the second time this month that the US has hit a boat suspected of drug smuggling off the coast of Venezuela.
7: A political storm is clouding the US Federal Reserve as its seven governors meet over the next couple of days to decide whether to cut interest rates – the target range is currently 4.25%-4.5%. Among the seven decision-makers are Lisa Cook, whom President Donald Trump has tried to fire but remains in situ after a court win yesterday, and Stephen Miran, a Trump ally whom the Senate confirmed only yesterday.
1.5%: Argentine President Javier Milei presented his 2026 budget proposal Tuesday to the National Congress, with the aim of having a fiscal surplus of 1.5% next year. The budgets for each of the last two years have been rejected, so the government has instead extended and continued to use the one implemented in 2023. With the midterm election only six weeks away, the budget could have political ramifications for Milei.
What We’re Watching: Israel commences Gaza City ground invasion, Election day in Malawi, India-US seek to mend trade ties
Palestinians, displaced by the Israeli military offensive, take shelter in a tent camp, amid an Israeli operation, in Gaza City, September 16, 2025.
Israel commences Gaza City ground invasion amid UN genocide report
The war in Gaza is intensifying further, as the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) commenced a long-planned ground operation in the enclave’s largest city on Tuesday. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are still sheltering in the area, which faced an aerial bombardment in recent days. Israel argues that the ground invasion is the best way to free the remaining 48 hostages held by Hamas, 20 of whom are believed to be alive, and prevent the militant group from reorganizing. The escalation comes as a United Nations inquiry concluded Tuesday that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu incited this act. Israel called the report “fake.”
Economic gloom hovers over Malawi election
Malawians voted Tuesday in a tight presidential race between incumbent Lazarus Chakwera and former leader Peter Mutharika amid soaring inflation, food shortages, and deep poverty. Fifteen other candidates, including ex-President Joyce Banda, are also running. Economic stagnation, corruption allegations, and climate-linked disasters have fueled public frustration in the southeast African country of 22 million, where most people live on less than $3 a day. Both major contenders face graft accusations, and analysts expect a likely run-off if no candidate surpasses 50% of the vote. Parliamentary and local elections are also underway, with results expected within a week.
Are India-US trade tensions set to dissipate?
US officials are in Delhi today to discuss whether these two major geopolitical powers can reach a trade deal. Tensions have been simmering in recent months after US President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian imports, purportedly over their purchases of Russian oil – some experts believe Trump’s gambit was really about bargaining position. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who once had a close relationship with Trump, rebuffed the US leader’s call to stop. However, there is growing optimism that the two sides can work out a deal – Trump and Modi even exchanged hopeful messages on social medialast week.
Supporters of main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) attend a rally to protest against the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and main rival of President Tayyip Erdogan, a day after the removal of the CHP's Istanbul provincial head Ozgur Celik by a court over alleged irregularities in a 2023 CHP provincial congress, in Istanbul, Turkey, September 3, 2025.
After a weekend of mass protests in Turkey, a court in Ankara has postponed its decision in a highly charged case that could oust Turkey’s main opposition leader – and boost the fortunes of long-time President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The case comes amid a crackdown against Erdoğan’s political opponents, hundreds of whom have been jailed on accusations of corruption and terrorism, including Erdoğan’s main rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Ahead of elections that must be held by 2028, Erdoğan stands accused of attempting to extend his 22-year hold on power by any means necessary, and at the cost of democracy itself.
What’s the case about?
The case alleges vote-buying and procedural irregularities at the 2023 congress of Turkey's principal opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which removed former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and elected current chairman Ozgur Özel. The court was supposed to rule on September 15, but has now postponed the decision until October 24.
The CHP rejects the corruption claims, with Özel accusing Erdoğan of launching a “judicial coup” in response to his party’s electoral victories in 2024, and rising public support. Erdoğan denies this, but in May he commissioned a redraft of the country’s constitution, raising fears that he intends to manipulate the law to allow him to run for a fourth term.
What could happen if Kılıçdaroğlu is reinstated?
The former leader’s reinstatement could sow conflict inside the party between old guard and new, thereby demoralizing some of its base. On the other hand, such a decision could also backfire and galvanize the opposition, like several of Erdoğan’s other recent moves. İmamoğlu’s arrest provoked the largest protests in Turkey in over a decade, while the spate of opposition arrests and court battles has turned Özel into a popular protest figure as well.
What’s at stake for Turkey?
Electoral freedom. “This is a serious moment that signals a regime change in Turkey from a competitive authoritarianism, in which opposition parties could still win elections, to a kind of hegemonic authoritarianism, in which they are more symbolic and unable to win,” said Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-founder and co-director of IstanPol Institute, an Istanbul-based think tank.
The West – and the rest – are watching
If Turkey slides towards authoritarianism, it couldn’t come at a worse time for the West. Erdoğan has long attempted to strike a balance between the country’s NATO partners and Russia, notably on the war in Ukraine. But some of his foreign policy positions, including on Israel’s war with Hamas, have distanced Ankara from Western allies. Add to that US President Donald Trump’s recent ultimatum to NATO countries to stop buying Russian oil – which Turkey does – and Greece’s objections this week to Turkey joining the Security Action For Europe, and it’s not hard to see how Erdoğan might find more kinship with Moscow than with Europe or Washington.
The big picture
The court’s decision on October 24 will be part of a larger test for Turkey: can democratic institutions, including courts, elections, and civil rights, survive Erdoğan’s crackdown? Or will they be hollowed from the inside, leaving opposition parties in name only, and Turkish citizens no other option than to take to the streets? More unrest could cause Erdoğan to further curb civil liberties, leading Turkey further down the path of authoritarianism – and away from democratic alliances.