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French President Emmanuel Macron talks with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa as they arrive to attend a joint press conference after a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on May 7, 2025.
Syria’s interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former jihadist whose forces overthrew the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad last December, met on Wednesday with French President Emmanuel Macron. It was his first trip to Europe.
The upshot: The French president said he would push for the lifting of EU sanctions – which have been in place since 2011 – if al-Sharaa continued on a path of reform and reconstruction that respected the rights of Syria’s religious minorities. He said he’d also lobby the US to follow suit.
The goal: France, with regional players Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, favors swift relief from Western sanctions against Syria to speed the rebuilding of a country wrecked by civil war and mass emigration.
But the US has been more cautious, giving Damascus a list of conditions for sanctions removal that include icing out Iran, expelling Palestinian groups, and giving the American military a free hand in Syria.
The bombshell: During the meeting, Al-Sharaa revealed Syria has been holding indirect security talks with Israel. That’s a big deal: since Assad’s fall, Israel has bombed Syrian military sites, expanded a “buffer zone” into the country, and conducted airstrikes on behalf of Syria’s Druze minority.
Any prospect of an accord with Israel – which is deeply suspicious of Damascus’ intentions – would significantly improve Syria’s prospects of stability and prosperity.A carnival float by artist Jacques Tilly depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, at the traditional "Rosenmontag" Rose Monday carnival parade in Duesseldorf, Germany, March 3, 2025.
Chinese President Xi Jinpingarrived in Moscow on Wednesday for a four-day trip in which he’ll attend the Kremlin’s World War Two victory celebrations and aim to bolster his “no limits friendship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia-China ties have deepened significantly in recent years, as both leaders prefer a multipolar world to a US-dominated one, and they share an affection for authoritarian politics. They also enjoy a natural symbiosis: Russia sells natural resources, while China buys them. And since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has helped Putin to survive Western sanctions, supplying Moscow with banned technology and arms while buying Russian oil.
But the return of US President Donald Trump – who has upended global trade and sympathized with Russia’s views on Ukraine – makes things interesting.
Beijing, which has clashed with the European Union over trade and technology in recent years, is now keen to exploit European misgivings about Trump to repair its own ties with Brussels. But standing next to Putin, whom most European leaders see as an arch villain for his invasion of Ukraine, will make that harder.
Meanwhile, Putin has a balancing act of his own to consider. Trump offers the prospect of a major improvement in US-Russia relations, which could help Moscow financially. But the White House is also trying to isolate China economically, something Putin couldn’t possibly go along with right now. Is there a way to square that circle? Would he even want to try?
Traders work as screens broadcast a news conference by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, USA, on May 7, 2025.
4.5: The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its key interest rate unchanged for the third time in a row, keeping it at 4.25%-4.5%, where it’s been since December. President Donald Trump has publicly pressured Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower rates. “The economy itself is still in solid shape,” Powell told reporters Wednesday, but he said a “great deal of uncertainty” remains about the impact of Trump’s global tariffs and wider trade wars.
2: Speaking of uncertainty, why are US warplanes falling into the sea? According to reports, two F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets have slid off the deck of the USS Harry S. Truman carrier into the Red Sea over the past week alone. The first plunged into the water when the warship made a hard turn to evade fire from Houthi rebels. The second may have experienced a landing problem. Each jet costs a cool $60 million – cue Commander Stinger, “you don’t own that plane, the taxpayers do!”
10: The richest 10% of the global population are responsible for two-thirds of the global temperature rise since 1990, according to new research published by Nature Climate Change. The study also claims that compared to the average person, the world’s richest 1% contributed 26 times more to extreme heat globally and 17 times as much to droughts in the Amazon. Private jets are not, as it happens, great for the environment.
350,000: Animal welfare officers in South Africa euthanized more than 350,000 chickens after a state-owned poultry company ran out of funds to feed them. Officials couldn't estimate how many other chickens had died before this intervention due to “mass cannibalism” at the farm (yes, chickens eating each other). Still, on the plus side, the NSCPA’s action saved more than 500,000 chickens who may now be… eaten by people anyway.Thousands of Yemenis gather in Sanaa's Al-Sabeen Square to demonstrate unwavering solidarity with Palestine and vehemently denounce Israel and the US. Organized by the Houthis, the protest included chants against Israeli actions in Palestine, with demonstrators pledging steadfast support for Palestinians amid regional tensions.
President Donald Trump said this week the US campaign against the Houthis is done for now. “They have capitulated,” he said, “but more importantly… they say they will not be blowing up ships anymore.”
The Houthis from the Signal chat? The very same. The Trump administration in March ramped up bombings of the Iran-backed group – which controls much of Yemen – to stop its ongoing attacks on ships in the Red Sea, a critical global trade artery.
The Houthis began attacking ships in October 2023 in an act of solidarity with Hamas, protesting Israel’s war in Gaza.
Why did the Houthis stop? Not necessarily because of the US airstrikes alone, says Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at Eurasia Group.
“The US hit the Houthis dozens of times,” he said, “but failed to do serious damage to the group’s capabilities.”
Rather, Tehran reportedly pushed the Houthis towards the US pact, a positive sign for US-Iran relations, Brew says. The US and Iran meet for a fourth round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program this weekend.
Meanwhile: the Houthis and Israel continue to clash. Israel leveled Yemen’s main airport this week after a Houthi missile landed near Ben Gurion airport near Tel Aviv. Israel is, notably, excluded from the US-Houthi pact.Viktor Orbán watching his party leave him behind.
For the past fifteen years, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has coasted from one election victory to another. Since returning to power in 2010, the self-proclaimed defender of “illiberal democracy” has transformed his country into an “electoral autocracy” – reshaping institutions, rewriting election laws, muzzling independent media, and stacking the courts – where elections are technically free but heavily tilted in his favor, the media landscape is dominated by government allies, and the ruling party – Fidesz – uses the machinery of the state to reward supporters and punish dissent.
All the while, Orbán has proudly cast himself as Europe’s chief populist troublemaker – a pro-Russian crusader against liberalism, immigration, and Brussels bureaucrats, Donald Trump’s man across the Atlantic, and a guy who relishes nothing more than jamming up the European Union’s gears.
His nationalist-populist model inspired imitators and admirers across the West. Where many right-wing populists have flamed out, Orbán has endured, winning elections (four in a row, to be precise) and accumulating more power along the way.
But now, Orbán’s veneer of invincibility is cracking. Suddenly, the world’s most durable populist and Trump’s best friend in Europe looks more vulnerable than ever.
Cracks in the crown
At home, the Hungarian prime minister is facing a newly energized political opposition led by a former protégé-turned-rival named Peter Magyar, who’s managed to do what no other challenger has: unite Hungary’s fragmented anti-Orbán forces. Recent polls show Magyar's center-right Tisza Party holding a commanding double-digit lead over Orbán’s Fidesz among committed voters. Whether or not it’ll hold until the elections in early 2026, that’s no small advantage in a country where the ruling party has rewritten the electoral rules in its favor.
Magyar’s appeal lies in his hybrid message: anti-corruption and pro-transparency, but also nationalist and socially conservative enough to peel away disillusioned Fidesz voters. His rise has upended Orbán’s usual playbook, which relied on a splintered opposition and a monopoly on patriotic rhetoric.
Now, for the first time in years, Orbán is worried, and he’s throwing every goodie he can think of at voters – tax breaks for mothers, higher allowances for families, VAT refunds for retirees, price caps on groceries – in a bid to shore up support and stem Magyar’s rise.
But while these giveaways may buy him some political breathing room, they are also blowing a hole in Hungary’s budget just as the economy is faltering. Growth has been stalled since the end of 2022, the budget deficit is ballooning at 4.9% of GDP, and Orbán’s long-running feud with Brussels means billions in EU recovery funds are likely to remain frozen this year.
Then there’s the Trump factor. Orbán likes to boast about his closeness with the US president. He was the first European leader to endorse Trump in 2016 and again in 2024. But that friendship is becoming less useful.
Unless the EU manages to negotiate a trade deal with Washington, Trump’s punitive new tariffs would hit Hungary’s growth engine especially hard, affecting demand from Europe (particularly Germany) and products ranging from lithium-ion batteries (which make up almost 20% of the country's US exports) to electronic, manufactured goods, and even high-quality wines. Orbán has downplayed the damage, insisting Trump’s tariffs are no big deal – and even floating the fantasy that he could leverage his closeness with Trump to strike his own bilateral deal … despite the tiny issue that EU countries have no capacity to bypass the bloc’s common trade policy.
The White House has also made it clear it’s not inclined to give its pal a pass, especially given the growing suspicion with which defense and trade hawks within the administration view Orbán’s pro-China orientation. In fact, Washington is pushing Budapest to ramp up defense spending to 5% of GDP, buy more weapons and LNG from the US, and distance itself from Beijing at a time when economic conditions are making Hungary more financially dependent on China.
And so, Viktor Orbán is boxed in: squeezed by a surging domestic challenger, trapped by an overextended fiscal policy, cut off from EU funds, and now caught in the undertow of his ally’s protectionist turn in Washington.
Don’t call it a comeback
You might think this spells good news for Europe. Facing his most difficult year since first coming to power, the bloc’s preeminent internal antagonist will have a more limited ability to hijack the EU agenda or undermine European unity on Russia sanctions and Ukraine support in concert with Trump. Sure, if you’re laying odds, it’s still Orbán’s election to lose … but Hungary’s at least in play now. It’s welcome news for Brussels.
Some have gone further, though, pointing to recent centrist electoral wins against right-wing populists with explicitly Trumpian politics in Canada and Australia as evidence of a broader anti-Trump effect being in full swing. If Trump’s disruptive return to the spotlight is causing voters to “rally around the flag” of stability, then perhaps Orbán’s troubles are a sign that Europe is finally sobering up from its populist binge – that the chaos and corruption of his and Trump’s style has worn thin, and European voters are turning back toward sanity and moderation.
But that reading overlooks the fact that the anti-Trump bump isn't holding in Europe. If anything, the tide of right-wing populism on the continent is accelerating.
Take Romania. George Simion, an ultranationalist firebrand with a MAGA streak, is now the favorite to beat Bucharest’s pro-Western centrist mayor, Nicușor Dan, in the May 18 presidential runoff election following the collapse of the country’s pro-EU governing coalition yesterday. Simion outperformed expectations in the first-round vote last Sunday after openly embracing Trump-style politics, railing against the EU, and even welcoming American CPAC chair Matt Schlapp to the campaign trail. He is campaigning alongside Calin Georgescu, another far-right candidate whose first-round presidential election win last November was annulled by Romania’s top court due to likely Russian interference. (A massive online influence campaign tied to the Kremlin seems to have helped Simion, too.)
Across the English Channel, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party delivered a political gut-punch to the mainstream last Friday, flipping a historically safe Labor parliamentary seat in a by-election and racking up wins in local council elections. The Labor-Tory duopoly that’s dominated British politics for over a century suddenly looks wobbly – and Farage, a leading Brexit advocate and perennial Trump ally, is at the center of the storm.
Even in places where centrists are supposed to be on solid ground, the far right is gaining. In Poland, the ruling Law and Justice party is leaning into its Trump ties to boost its presidential hopeful, Karol Nawrocki. Recent polling shows Nawrocki closing in on centrist opponent Rafał Trzaskowski ahead of elections on May 18. He flew to Washington last week to meet with Trump-affiliated figures, hoping to ride the same anti-establishment wave to victory.
Meanwhile, in Germany, center-right leader Friedrich Merz squeaked into the chancellorship on a second vote after an embarrassing initial flop yesterday. With the hard-right, MAGA-endorsed Alternative für Deutschland continuing to rise, the conservative chancellor once viewed as the establishment’s answer to the populist surge now leads a wounded and weakened “grand coalition” that feels anything but grand.
All of which is to say: Orbán may be stumbling, but his current woes are less a sign of waning populism or an anti-Trump backlash across Europe than a story of one populist’s bad bets coming due. We could be entering a world where Budapest becomes less of a thorn in Brussels’ side than before. But if European centrists think that’ll be the end of their troubles, they’re in for a rude awakening. Far-right European populism is not going anywhere.
A damaged portion of Bilal Mosque is seen after it was hit by an Indian strike in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025.
It was never going to end quietly: India early on Wednesday bombed what it said were nine militant sites within Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir, reportedly killing at least 26 people in the worst clash between the two countries in decades.
Warning signs. India launched the strikes in retaliation for a terrorist rampage in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir last month. Pakistan says it had nothing to do with that attack.
Pakistani response now inbound. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the Indian airstrikes an “act of war,” and has reportedly authorized the military to respond in kind.
Reaction from abroad. Major countries including the US, Japan, France, and China – which has close ties to Pakistan but borders both countries – called for restraint. Israel notably issued its unequivocal support for India and its right to self defense.
What will happen next? “Pakistan has traditionally responded with a tit for tat response, normally a bombing run on a minor target on Indian soil,” said Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Eurasia Group’s South Asia practice head. However, Chaudhuri doesn’t expect the fighting to last long.
“Both sides are nuclear armed, neither has overwhelming military dominance and both lack the economic or political interest in a sustained conflict,” said Chaudhuri. “These skirmishes tend to die out within 24 to 48 hours.”
U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 6, 2025.
What does Donald Trump want most from Canada? “Friendship,” he said during his meeting Tuesday with newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney. But while their IRL encounter was civil enough, don’t expect matching friendship bracelets any time soon.
Trump again taunted Canada about the benefits of being “the 51st state” and shot down Carney’s reply that his country would “never be for sale.” Carney, who won Canada’s election last week after a stunning political comeback fueled largely by Trump’s aggression towards Ottawa, said his administration was committed to boosting investment in Canadian security.
But despite all the posturing, no progress was made in calming a trade war that affects $800 billion in annual commerce. US tariffs of 25% remain in place on steel, aluminum, and cars that do not comply with NAFTA, as do Canadian retaliatory measures of 25%.
Although Trump has stopped short of applying his promised “reciprocal tariffs” on Canada so far, uncertainty about US economic policy has Canadian manufacturers hunting for other markets (they currently send 75% of their exports to the US) while both sides gear up to renegotiate their USMCA trade agreement in 2026.