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It’s been just over a week since US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Despite a brief exchange of bombs – and Trump’s f-bomb – in the immediate aftermath of this announcement, a tepid truce appears to be holding, even if questions remain about the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities.
But how did the flare-up affect the domestic politics of each country involved? Let’s explore how the 12-day conflict affected the political fortunes of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Trump.
Israel: Netanyahu off the ropes, for now.
Three weeks ago, it looked like Netanyahu was staring into the abyss, with his coalition government on the verge of collapse. He survived the vote, then bombed Iran, destroying parts of its nuclear facilities and killing several senior military officials. As a coup de grace, he got the US to join the cause as well.
The data reflects that this was a success for the Israeli leader. Some 70% of Israelis supported the strikes, per one poll, and he also received an electoral polling bump.
Yet Netanyahu isn’t out of the woods – far from it. Though the fighting has ended with Iran, it continues in Gaza. It’s this conflict – and the failure to retrieve the remaining 50 Israeli hostages – that dominates Israel’s domestic politics right now, and it has put Netanyahu in a Catch-22, per Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“He’s trapped between his right-wing coalition partners, and public opinion – but even more important, potentially, Donald Trump,” says Miller, referencing how Netanyahu’s right flank doesn’t want him to make a deal with Hamas, whereas the Israeli public and Trump do.
What’s more, Netanyahu still faces a corruption trial. Miller noted that Israel’s judicial branch hasn’t been afraid to imprison the top public officials – former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert served 16 months in jail for bribery – so “this is not an academic matter” to the incumbent leader.
Still, the aura of success surrounding his Iran mission has changed things for him. And with the next election not due until the fall of 2026, he has room to breathe, politically.
“There’s no doubt that his brand has been enhanced tremendously,” says Miller. “He’s probably under less pressure now than at any time since the government was formed in December 2022.”
Iran: Khamenei is down but not out.
The Supreme leader is “categorically weaker” than he was before the conflict, says Dr. Saram Vakil, an Iran expert at the London-based think tank Chatham House.
The reasons are clear: the war significantly damaged Iran, and exposed its military vulnerability. The Islamic Republic lost control of its own skies, its nuclear facilities were heavily damaged. Its response to Israel inflicted little damage, and, after the US airstrikes, Tehran responded with a feeble, face-saving wave of airstrikes against the US base in Qatar – and they reportedly told Trump ahead of time.
Khamenei tried to claim victory, saying that Tehran had “dealt a severe slap to the face of America,” in his first public address after the ceasefire was announced. However, the 86-year-old “looked very diminished” in the video, per Vakil. He was reportedly hastening succession talks during the conflict while hiding in a bunker.
In a bid to quell any potential uprising and maintain the regime’s existence – Khamenei’s top priority – the Islamic Republic has turned to a familiar tactic: mass arrests, executions, and military deployments. Boosting the public’s support for the regime, though, will require a lot more work.
“He has long been criticized, and I think long been held as responsible for the economic stagnation [and] the country’s standoff with the international community. He’s not a bold leader,” Vakil said of the Ayatollah. “There are no clear or easy avenues for him personally or for the state to re-legitimize themselves.”
There is a saving grace for Khamenei: Iran’s powerful military – the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – is unlikely to overthrow him, per Vakil, and his nuclear facilities remain somewhat intact, at least according to one intercepted call. The supreme leader is down, but not yet out.
United States: Trump celebrates, but also treads carefully
Though initial intelligence assessments were mixed about the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, no American troops died during the attacks and Iran’s immediate response was minor and contained. That seemed to put to rest dire warnings, including from within Trump’s own MAGA camp, that involving the US in another Middle East war would, in the words of former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, “tear the country apart.”
But if the mission didn’t rip up the country, it also hardly united it, according to Larry Sabato, a US politics professor at the University of Virginia.
“Look at the surveys. There’s almost always a rally-around-the flag effect [after a war]. Not this time!”
A CNN/SRSS poll found that just 44% of Americans supported Trump’s strikes on Iran. But his approval ratings – currently in the low 40s – were unmoved by the mission, suggesting that in the end, the relatively limited military engagement has had little political effect.
In fact, if there is something Middle East-related that could cause significant damage to Trump’s ratings, per Sabato, it would be the US getting more involved in the conflict – something few Americans want.
As such, the US president would be wise not to invest too much energy in resolving tensions between Israel and Iran, meaning he will have to work hard to preserve a shaky peace between two bitter adversaries
“Trump’s not going to be the next FDR,” Sabato told GZERO, referencing President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s prominence in the American imagination as a great statesman of both war and peace. “Biden made that mistake – thinking he would be the next FDR – but I don’t think that Trump’s going to be that stupid.”What We’re Watching: Thailand’s PM ousted, Musk vs Trump on bill and midterms, Turkey arrests journalists for blasphemy
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (C) speaks to the media during a press conference after the Constitutional Court suspends her from duty at Government House.
Thailand’s PM suspended over flattering phone call
Thailand’s constitutional court accepted a petition on Tuesday to suspend Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as pressure mounts over the leader’s alleged mishandling of a border dispute with neighbouring Cambodia. The petition accuses Paetongtarn of violating ethical standards in a leaked phone call with influential Cambodian politician Hun Sen, during which she flattered Hun and disparaged her own country’s military. Paetongtarn now has 15 days to gather evidence pleading her case. If she is removed, her party will likely select a successor, but broader clashes with the opposition – and the streets – may just be beginning.
Elon Musk makes a huge threat versus Trump
World’s richest man Elon Musk has more thoughts to offer on US President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” If the bill passes Congress, Musk warns, a third American political party “will be formed the next day,” and every lawmaker who voted for it “will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.” The Senate passed its $3.3-trillion version of the bill on Tuesday, but it must go back through the House before it reaches the president’s desk. Musk’s warning won’t change the fate of Trump’s signature legislation – overwhelming pressure from the US president will far outweigh anything Musk can immediately apply – but his threats to spend mega-millions to swing next year’s midterm elections can’t be ignored.
Cartoon controversy in Turkey
Four employees of a satirical magazine in Turkey have been arrested forpublishing a cartoon that authorities say depicts the Prophet Muhammad, which is forbidden in Islam. With disturbing echoes of the so-called “Charlie Hebdo” murders in Paris ten years ago, Istanbul riot police have had to contain protesters outside the magazine’s offices chanting for “blood” and “revenge.” The publishers emphatically deny their cartoon depicts the prophet, but prosecution of these journalists will offer an easy political win for the ever-controversial PresidentRecep Tayyip Erdoğan and his government.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to press before boarding Marine One to depart for Florida, on the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 1, 2025.
$199: For the low low price of $199 you too can wear the scent of the US president. Donald Trump has just released a line of signature fragrances – “for patriots who never back down” – with names like “Fight Fight Fight” and “Victory 47.” For true enthusiasts there’s even a limited edition bottle featuring a golden (and deceptively svelte) statuette of Trump, costing a mere $249. Yes, by the way, it’s legal for the president to sell perfumes.
250,000: Over 250,000 Afghans left Iran last month, after the government ordered the expulsion of all undocumented Afghans – many of whom fled the Taliban – by July 6. The expulsions are part of a broader forcible repatriation effort by Iran and Pakistan that the UN’s Refugee Agency warns could destabilize an already fragile region.
39: More than 39 people have been killed so far in a factory fire in South India’s Telangana state. While the cause is still unclear, Sigachi Industries – the pharmaceutical company which operates the factory – has announced that it will suspend operations for 90 days.
115.9 (46.6): A heat wave is ripping across Europe, with temperatures soaring into the triple digits, reaching 115.9°F (46.6°C) in one Portuguese town on Sunday. The high temperatures are causing all manner of chaos: two Italians have died as a result, and heat-stoked wildfires are ravaging Turkey.What We’re Watching: Senate vote on Trump’s big bill, Thai PM in hot water, Japan's name-change game
U.S. Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) speaks to reporters between votes at the U.S. Capitol building in Washington, U.S., January 23, 2024.
Trump’s tax-and-spending bill faces razor-thin Senate vote
The US Senate will vote today on President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”. The legislation would make many of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent and would boost spending on the military and immigration enforcement, but its proposed cuts could also leave nearly 12 million people without health insurance by 2034. That, and a projected $3.3 trillion national debt increase over the next decade, has stoked opposition even within the Republican party. GOP Senators Rand Paul and Thom Tillis – who announced he won’t seek reelection – are already opposed, meaning Trump can afford only two more defections. Expect today to be a marathon of votes and revisions to the legislation.
Thailand’s PM in hot water over cross-border phone call
Thousands of protestors gathered in Bangkok yesterday, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over a leaked phone call in which she was heard obsequiously flattering Cambodia’s still-influential former leader Hun Sen. The call played poorly in the light of a recent border spat between the two countries. Paetongtarn defended the call as a negotiation tactic, but the streets say she’s compromising Thailand’s sovereignty. Thailand’s Constitutional Court will rule this week on a petition calling for her removal.
Japan’s name change game
A campaign is afoot in Japan to relax a law that effectively requires women to take their husband’s last names. Proponents of the change, which is supported by most Japanese, say it will increase gender equality, boost Japan’s alarmingly low birthrate, and avoid a situation in which, over time, everyone ends up with the most common last name: “Sato.” But the governing LDP’s hard-right wing is opposed, and with an upper house election in July, the party wants no trouble. For now, “Satos all the way down” looks like Japan’s destiny after all.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Democratic Republic of the Congo's Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner and Rwanda's Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe on June 27, 2025.
On June 27, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed a US-mediated peace accord in Washington, D.C., to end decades of violence in the DRC’s resource-rich Great Lakes region. The agreement commits both nations to cease hostilities, withdraw troops, and to end support for armed groups operating in eastern Congowithin 90 days.
But the deal also includes a critical minerals partnership with the United States, granting it privileged access to the region’s vast cobalt, lithium, tantalum, andcoltan reserves. These essential components of electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense applications have come increasinglyunder Chinese control due to Beijing’s backing of Rwandan mining and refining operations, something Washington wants to change.
So is this deal about ending conflict – or countering China? Will it hold? And do peace pacts now always come with a price?
A conflict rooted in ethnic strife and resource competition
Tensions between the DRC and Rwanda date back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which the country’s Hutu majority killed as many as 800,000 people in the Tutsi minority. Many of the Hutu militias responsible for those crimes then fled to eastern Congo, sparking regional wars that killed millions more.
In the past year, the M23 militia, a Tutsi-linked group reportedlybacked by Rwanda’s current Tutsi-led government, seized key mining territoryin the DRC’s North Kivu province,displacing over 450,000 people. The United Nations and human rights groups say Rwanda is using M23 to plunder Congolese minerals, a charge the Rwandan government denies. The conflict has killed thousands and displaced as many as 2 million people.
What’s in the peace deal – and what isn’t
The agreement includes a framework titled “Critical Minerals for Security and Peace,” which allows US companies to invest in Congolese mining and processing under joint governance with Rwanda. The region’s mineral wealthis estimated at $24 trillion.
Human rights watchdogs warn, however, that the deal lacks enforcement and oversight. It also doesn’t include provisions for accountability over war crimes,sexual violence, or illegal mining.
Will the deal last?
There are roadblocks ahead. The M23 group itself was not party to the agreement, and has rejected its terms. And neither Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi nor Rwandan President Paul Kagamewere present at the signing ceremony, sending their foreign ministers instead; the two leaders will reportedly meet later with US President Donald Trump. Qatar, whichhosted talks between the DRC and M23 in early June, did attend the signing ceremony and has pledged to continue diplomatic efforts in the region.
According to Tresor Kibangula, a political analyst at Congo's Ebuteli research institute,the deal imparts "a strategic message: securing the east also means securing investments.” But in a conflict with such deep roots, he questions whether the “economic logic” alone will suffice to bring a lasting peace.
A banner announces the construction of a photovoltaic solar farm in Cabaiguan, Cuba, on May 21, 2025.
55: China is financing 55 new solar power projects in Cuba this year, the latest sign of how it is overtaking Russia as the crisis-wracked island’s main benefactor. Some of Moscow’s recent projects in the communist country have stalled: a Russian firm pledged two years ago to revitalize a sugar mill that once employed 2,000 people, but it still sits idle.
3%: In a win for US President Donald Trump, Canada walked back on its 3% Digital Services Tax that prompted the United States to suspend trade talks on Friday. The tax, which disproportionately affected American technology firms, was set to take effect on Monday.
71: Israel’s strike last Tuesday allegedly killed 71 people at a notorious detention facility in Tehran, per Iranian State Media. The prison houses thousands of political prisoners, including opposition politicians, journalists, and activists.
4,000: More than a third of Tuvalu’s population – around 4,000 residents – have applied for a landmark ‘climate visa,’ which grants Australian residency to migrants from Pacific Island nations battling rising sea levels. NASA scientists expect that the country’s main island, home to 60% of the population, will be fully submerged by 2050.
$80,000: US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem reportedly re-routed $80,000 in political donations to a newly established personal company during her time as South Dakota’s governor in 2023. Noem’s lawyer said she “fully complied with the letter and the spirit of the law.”Anna Wintour attends The Costume Institute's exhibition "Superfine: Tailoring Black Style" at The Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City, U.S., May 5, 2025.
37: Anna Wintour is stepping down after 37 years as editor-in-chief of American Vogue. She revolutionised the iconic fashion magazine, introducing celebrities to the cover and spotlighting emerging designers. Wintour will remain Vogue’s global editor, as well as chief content officer at the magazine’s publisher Condé Nast.
1: China’s Central Military Commission, the country’s highest military leadership body, now has one fewer member after voting to remove Miao Hua, senior admiral of the People’s Liberation Army. Miao has been under investigation for “serious violations of discipline” since last November, and his ouster is seen as part of a broader crackdown on corruption under Chinese President Xi Jinping.
28: Norwegian police on Friday accused Marius Borg Høiby, the 28-year old stepson of Crown Prince Haakon, of multiple counts of rape, sexual assault, and bodily harm. The announcement follows a months-long investigation involving “double-digit” victims.
$30 million: The US State Department approved $30 million in funding for the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a controversial US and Israeli-backed aid organization that has been criticized by the UN and other rights groups. Over 400 Palestinians have been killed at various aid points in recent weeks, per UN estimates, after Israeli soldiers fired into crowds seeking food. Israel has reportedly launched a war-crime probe into the incidents.