VIDEOSGZERO World with Ian BremmerQuick TakePUPPET REGIMEIan ExplainsGZERO ReportsAsk IanGlobal Stage
Site Navigation
Search
Human content,
AI powered search.
Latest Stories
Start your day right!
Get latest updates and insights delivered to your inbox.
popular
Presented by
Governments of the developed world are finally responding with due sense of urgency, individually in 3 different ways.
1st, stand health care systems up so they won't get overwhelmed (late responses). The private & public sector together, building additional ICU beds, supply capacity and production of medical equipment and surge medical personnel in the US, Canada, across Europe & the UK. Unclear if we avoid a Northern Italy scenario. A couple days ago, Dr. Fauci from the NIH said he was hopeful. Epidemiologists and critical care doctors don't feel comfortable. Not in New York, Chicago, LA, Boston, Philadelphia, New Orleans. In Europe, particularly London, Madrid, Catalonia, Barcelona, might be significantly short.
We'll see in 2-4 weeks. If responses are adequate, caseload will still explode, but mortality will be dramatically lower by 80 or 90%. The US caseload now is highest in the world. China lies about cases, but the US dramatically under-tests. On balance, the US has a larger outbreak than China at the peak. But the likelihood of a lot of American deaths looks lower. The key variable is, do we get the health care system surged adequately in the next few weeks? It's a race against time.
Dramatic response from the developed world on the monetary & fiscal side. On the monetary side, central bankers are reading from the 2008-2009 playbook. We had a financial crisis. Regulations ensured that the banks became more robust. On fiscal policy: US $2 trillion stimulus is 10% of American GDP. The Fed is able to leverage that with additional loans; a functional equivalent of $4 trillion, 20% of GDP - should be enough relief to get through 1/5 of the year, 2 months. No one thinks supply and demand is coming back in the next 6, 8 weeks.
The fiscal stimulus appears sufficient; market response has been positive so far. Congress members believe we will need more stimulus in 2 months. What kind? How big? Another $2-4 trillion, or more? The closer to elections, the more challenging.
Emerging markets need the same scale of stimulus, but don't have the cash. India on lockdown, done state by state. A few states, Punjab, Kerala, Maharashtra, look like they're doing a decent job. Other states, not. Net 80 to 90% of the Indian economy is informal - the way you get money to people has to be direct. Source of money has to be external. IMF, international financial institutions, US, Europe, others have to step up. I'm skeptical.
Emerging markets are going to experience bigger crises and crash- don't have governance resilience or coordination, need money. Turkey has a steep curve of cases, problem with social distancing. Different from the Nordics or Japan. Cultural features play in why cases explode in Italy and Spain - large numbers of people spend more time in close proximity, lead to many more cases. That's a problem for Turkey.
The Brazilian president refuses to shut down or call for social distancing. He's going after the governors that are shutting down the economy. If an explosion doesn't happen in Brazil and the economy's in decent order, he'll look like a hero. I think Bolsonaro is going to be in trouble.
Better story on US-China. After Trump has been saying the China virus, & the G-7 couldn't come up with a joint statement because Secretary of State Pompeo was saying it's got to be the Wuhan virus and no American allies agreed. Trump yesterday has a conference call with Xi Jinping. Tweets about it. Calls it the coronavirus. Is that because Trump doesn't have a willingness to talk honestly to Xi Jinping's face? Is he scared or is he actually backing away from a cold war? I think it's more the latter than the former. Trump doesn't want the economy to take a bigger dive from starting a fight with the Chinese. He's backing away. Good news.
Will it stick? Depends on how Trump's numbers do, as the election gets closer and it's harder to give a good story. This story is going to shift from numbers to people. A couple weeks ago, none of us knew people that died of coronavirus. Few knew people that had it. Now, a lot of us know people that have it. Some know people that died. Trump's lack of human empathy is going to be more challenging. I worry that we end up in a much more confrontational stance of the Americans vis-a-vis the Chinese.
Keep reading...Show less
More from popular
It’s official: Trump wants a weaker European Union
December 10, 2025
The power of sports
December 10, 2025
Japan’s leader has had a tricky start. But the public loves her.
December 10, 2025
What’s Good Wednesdays™, December 10, 2025
December 10, 2025
Walmart's $350 billion commitment to American jobs
December 10, 2025
Tools and Weapons – In Conversation with Ed Policy
December 09, 2025
Honduras awaits election results, but will they be believed?
December 09, 2025
Geoffrey Hinton on how humanity can survive AI
December 09, 2025
ask ian
Dec 08, 2025
Quick Take
Dec 08, 2025
Egypt’s Undemocratic Election - And Why the West doesn’t care
December 08, 2025
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer
Dec 08, 2025
Anatomy of a Scam
December 06, 2025
The human cost of AI, with Geoffrey Hinton
December 06, 2025
Ian Explains
Dec 05, 2025
The genocide no one talks about any more
December 05, 2025
Freelance Producer- Broadcast and Digital Video
December 05, 2025
You vs. the News: A Weekly News Quiz - December 5, 2025
December 05, 2025
Why won’t the right unite in Western Europe?
December 04, 2025
The Ukraine peace push is failing. Here's why.
December 03, 2025
The AI economy takes shape
December 03, 2025
Then & Now: Can Haiti's government hold an election?
December 03, 2025
What’s Good Wednesdays™, December 3, 2025
December 03, 2025
Walmart's $350 billion commitment to American jobs
December 03, 2025
Trump, Russia, and a deal Ukraine can’t accept
December 02, 2025
What’s next for Zelensky?
December 02, 2025
Trump threatens regime change in Venezuela
December 02, 2025
Tools and Weapons – In Conversation with Ed Policy
December 01, 2025
The kids are not alright
December 01, 2025
Puppet Regime
Nov 29, 2025
Turkeys reject Trump's pardon
November 26, 2025
Graphic Truth: Turkey is cheaper, but inflation still gobbles
November 26, 2025
Five stories to be thankful for
November 26, 2025
Bolsonaro reacts as Trump scraps Brazil tariffs
November 25, 2025
Pakistan slides deeper into autocracy
November 25, 2025
Is Trump’s trade strategy backfiring abroad?
November 25, 2025
Toppling Maduro would be "the easy part" says former Ambassador
November 25, 2025
Tools and Weapons – In Conversation with Ed Policy
November 24, 2025
Europe divided as US pushes Ukraine-Russia peace deal
November 24, 2025
Japan-China spat over Taiwan escalates
November 24, 2025
Anatomy of a Scam
November 24, 2025
Could the US really invade Venezuela?
November 24, 2025
Gaming out a US-Venezuela war with ambassador James Story
November 22, 2025
Trump, Zelensky, and Putin discuss Ukraine peace deal
November 21, 2025
Ian stands in line for a bagel, the internet melts down
November 21, 2025
Could the US pull another Panama in Venezuela?
November 21, 2025
20 years after Merkel, men still hold most top offices
November 21, 2025
You vs. the News: A Weekly News Quiz
November 21, 2025
Three issues dividing the EU right now
November 20, 2025
Tap and go: The future of urban mobility
November 20, 2025
Trump’s risky Venezuela strategy, explained
November 19, 2025
Graphic Truth: Europe tries to fill US void in Ukraine funding
November 19, 2025
The AI economy takes shape
November 19, 2025
A Trump Doctrine of heavy footsteps and many levers
November 19, 2025
GZERO Europe
Nov 19, 2025
Putin wants Trump to DO IT
November 18, 2025
The Debrief
Nov 18, 2025
Tools and Weapons – In Conversation with Ted Sarandos
November 18, 2025
Walmart's $350 billion commitment to American jobs
November 18, 2025
Canada’s government survives budget vote
November 18, 2025
GZERO Series
GZERO Daily: our free newsletter about global politics
Keep up with what’s going on around the world - and why it matters.
















































































