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Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Is the transatlantic relationship permanently damaged by what we have seen during the last 10 days or so?
Well, there is no question that the last 10 days or so have been the worst by far for the transatlantic relationship in, well, modern recorded history. You can go through all of the details if you want. It started with the shameful vote in the UN General Assembly on the same day that was three years after the war of aggression that Russia started, where the United States turned around, lined up with Russia, and with primarily a bunch of countries that you would not normally like to be seen in the company of, in order to try to defeat the Europeans, and defeat the Ukrainians, and defeat the Japanese, and defeat the Australians, defeat all of the friends who have criticized the Russians.
It was truly shameful. It was defeated, needless to say, but it left deep marks there. And then it was downhill from there, with that particular week ending with the ambush in the Oval Office, with all of the details associated with that, with sort of a childish dispute about dress codes, and respect for whatever, and total disregard for the important issues that are at stake at the moment. And to that was added, the vice president seriously insulting the allies, primarily the British and the French, and then cutting of aid to Ukraine, including intelligence cooperation, which is unheard of, unheard of when it comes to these particular issues.
So, is damage permanent? Well, one would hope that... well, hope springs eternal, that there would be a way back. But this will be remembered for a long time to come. And the reaction in Europe, well, you have to keep a straight face if you are a political leader. And they do, they hope for the best, but they're increasingly preparing for the worst. What we might be heading into is Mr. Trump, President Trump lining up with President Putin in a deal that is essentially on Russia's term over Ukraine, then trying to force Ukraine into that particular deal, a repetition of Munich 1938.
Will that work? I think it's unlikely to work because the Ukrainians are determined to stand up for their country. And they have the support of the Europeans. Czechoslovakia in 1938 didn't have much support. So, whether it will work or not is debatable, but that is the direction in which things are heading at the moment. Can this be stopped or can the trajectory of things be changed? Let's hope. There's a flurry of meetings in Europe. There will be a lot of contacts across the Atlantic. There is a strong support for Ukraine in Europe, but then deep apprehensions of where we are heading. Further four years with President Trump. After that, (possibly) four to eight years with JD Vance. Well, well, there's a lot of thinking that needs to be done on this side of the Atlantic.
What is the European reaction to what President Trump is trying to achieve in terms of peace?
Well, confusion. A lot of people, and there are quite a number of European leaders here, today, don't really understand what President Trump is up to. He wants peace, that's fine. But peace can be, well, that could be the complete capitulation of Ukraine, that is the Putin definition of peace. Or it can be the victory of Ukraine, that's another definition of peace. So exactly how President Trump intends to pursue this? And without Europe, obviously, neither Putin nor Trump wants Europe around the table.
But how do you do it without Ukraine on the table? Because a lot of the things that are going to be necessary to agree with are things that have to be agreed with Ukraine, with President Zelensky. So a lot of question marks. The desire for peace is clearly here, no question about that. This war has to come to end. But the peace has to be just, it has to be stable. It has to be something that is not just a pause for Russia to recalibrate and restart the war.
So a lot of things to discuss between the European leaders and between the European leaders and President Zelensky, is happening in Kyiv here today. But also eventually, across the Atlantic, President Macron is in Washington today, Prime Minister Starmer is heading into Washington on Thursday.
HARD NUMBERS: Chinese marriages fall, Romanian president resigns, Bangladesh police arrest hundreds, Palestinian Authority may scrap “martyrs’ payments.”
A group wedding at the Harbin Ice and Snow World on January 6, 2025 in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province of China. As the population continues to decline, the Chinese government has been trying to boost marriages and fertility rates.
20: The number of marriages in China fell to 6.1 million last year, 20% lower than in 2023 and down by more than 50% since 2013. The marital malaise is part of a bigger demographic crisis facing China. Although it boasts the world’s second-largest population, at 1.4 billion people, the country’s population is declining. Until 2015, the state enforced a “one child” policy to avoid urban overcrowding. But since then high costs of child care and education have stymied government efforts to encourage people to have children.
6: At least six people were detained Monday during celebratory demonstrations in Bucharest following the resignation of Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. Iohannis has been under pressure to step down since the annulment last December of the election to pick his successor after a social media campaign allegedly organized by Russia helped a little-known far-right candidate to win. Although Iohannis’ term has ended, he was trying to stay in power until the rerun election in May. This triggered criticism and protests over the perception that, on top of involvement in the unpopular decision to scrap the election results, he was acting unconstitutionally by exceeding his term.
1,300: Police in Bangladesh have arrested at least 1,300 supporters of former PM Sheikh Hasina, who was ousted in mass protests last August that were touched off by a backlash against certain hiring quotas in the civil service. Since then the interim government has struggled to tamp down tensions between supporters of Hasina, a strong female leader who came to power in 2009, and her opponents. Hasina herself is currently in exile in India.
20: The Palestinian Authority, which enjoys limited self-rule in the West Bank, has reportedly signaled to the Trump administration that it could scrap its controversial “martyrs’ payments.” Under this 20-year-old policy, the PA gives financial support to the families of Palestinians killed or wounded while carrying out acts of violence against Israel or who are imprisoned by Israel. The PA has often framed the policy as a social welfare measure under conditions of occupation, while critics say that it’s a “pay to slay” policy that simply encourages more violence and terrorism.
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Abu Dhabi, UAE.
Is the European Union opening up to cooperation with the new government or regime in Damascus?
Yes, they are gradually. The foreign minister of the European Union took the decision early this week to start to ease sanctions on Syria that have been in place for years. And that is very important in order to start to get the economy going in the country. And that, of course, is very important in terms to start addressing all of the humanitarian needs. And also, eventually getting the economy going so that at some point in time perhaps people can start to move back to the country that they were forced to flee from during the years of civil war and repression.
Why was the prime minister of Serbia sacked?
That was part of a bigger move, defensive move, you can say by the president, by President Vučić. He has been under intense pressure due the last few months. There was an accident in Novi Sad, the second-biggest city that was blamed on the roof fell in, and that was blamed on bad construction and corruption. That has crystallized massive opposition to his regime, which has been there for a long time and is seen as increasingly authoritarian. So, pressure has been building up and he was now forced to concede sacking the prime minister and announcing new elections in April. So new elections in April in Serbia. There will be elections in Kosovo before that. There will be elections also in Albania. So, a lot of things are in flux in the Southern Balkans.
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Davos, Switzerland.
What’s been going on here?
It’s been Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. It’s been very much dominated by assessments, curiosity, concern about the transition in the US. A lot of businessmen are fairly, sort of, upbeat. They think there’s sort of a deregulation and lower taxes, that’s good. Economists are more worried. Debts and deficits, that’s not good. And those dealing with geopolitics, like myself, are deeply concerned.
Is he going to go to war with Denmark over Greenland? What’s going to happen with the Panama Canal? Is their Middle East policy that is credible? And what is he really up to when it comes to dealing with Mr. Putin on Ukraine? There are lots of questions, lots of concerns. But, upbeat assessment, in spite of that.
Houses are pictured in Ilulissat, Greenland, September 14, 2021.
Donald Trump wants Greenland. The vast, sparsely populated Arctic island has been under Danish control for 300 years, but back in 2019, when he was last president, he floated the idea of buying it. He recently reiterated that, and even refused to rule out using force to get what he wants.
Why would Trump want Greenland?
First, it’s a huge piece of the Arctic, where international competition with Russia and China for control over shipping routes and deepwater mining is heating up as the ice caps melt.
Second, it’s rich in rare earths, which are critical for the manufacture of advanced batteries and other electronics. China currently controls 80% of the world’s rare earths supply. Getting Greenland could change that.
Third, it has massive geothermal energy potential. That could provide virtually limitless clean energy for the energy-hungry AI revolution.
Greenland and Denmark both say the island is “not for sale”. But they’ve also shown interest in deeper economic and defense cooperation with the US, which has had bases in Greenland since World War Two. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen held a 45 minute call with Trump this week.
Meanwhile, polls show support for independence from Denmark is high. Denmark says it will respect whatever the Greenlanders decide on that front and that Trump should do the same.
Greenland's red flags. Despite the famously cheerful colors of their houses and the breathtaking beauty of Greenland's nature, the island's roughly 50,000 people struggle with a number of economic and social challenges. Skilled labor is in short supply, and inflation is high. The government and the fishing industry are by far the two largest employers. The population is shrinking as people emigrate. Suicide rates are routinely the highest in the world.
If the Trump Administration showed up with a significant promise of greenbacks for Greenland, both sides could benefit.
What could happen? Greenland could vote for independence in the near future. If so, the US will press firmly for a preferential bilateral agreement. The big question then would be whether Trump tries to go further, trying to secure more direct control. If so, would other interested global powers (looking at you Russia and China) try to stop that?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Why has NATO launched a new operation in the Baltic Sea?
Well the reason is to have better safety and security for the undersea infrastructure of different cables that we have in the Baltic Sea. There have been a number of incidents in the last few months when these cables have been damaged or cut by ships that have passed by dragging their anchors. They've often been associated with the part of what you call the 'shadow fleet' of earlier old rusty tankers transporting oil from Russia in violation of sanctions. So, the NATO operation is supposed to keep that under watch, prevent it, and secure the undersea infrastructure.
Are the sanctions against Russia by the EU and US really working?
Yes, they are. But of course it's a long-term effect. No question about that. They are degrading the strength of the Russian economy in a number of areas. Critical is the ability, which is a difficult one, to try to limit the gains in the profits that Russia is making off the oil exports, primarily to India and Russia. And I think the latest round of US sanctions and EU sanctions against the shadow of fleets of rusty old tankers, I think that will have an even more important effect than what we've seen so far.