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Europe
HARD NUMBERS: Chinese marriages fall, Romanian president resigns, Bangladesh police arrest hundreds, Palestinian Authority may scrap “martyrs’ payments.”
A group wedding at the Harbin Ice and Snow World on January 6, 2025 in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province of China. As the population continues to decline, the Chinese government has been trying to boost marriages and fertility rates.
20: The number of marriages in China fell to 6.1 million last year, 20% lower than in 2023 and down by more than 50% since 2013. The marital malaise is part of a bigger demographic crisis facing China. Although it boasts the world’s second-largest population, at 1.4 billion people, the country’s population is declining. Until 2015, the state enforced a “one child” policy to avoid urban overcrowding. But since then high costs of child care and education have stymied government efforts to encourage people to have children.
6: At least six people were detained Monday during celebratory demonstrations in Bucharest following the resignation of Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. Iohannis has been under pressure to step down since the annulment last December of the election to pick his successor after a social media campaign allegedly organized by Russia helped a little-known far-right candidate to win. Although Iohannis’ term has ended, he was trying to stay in power until the rerun election in May. This triggered criticism and protests over the perception that, on top of involvement in the unpopular decision to scrap the election results, he was acting unconstitutionally by exceeding his term.
1,300: Police in Bangladesh have arrested at least 1,300 supporters of former PM Sheikh Hasina, who was ousted in mass protests last August that were touched off by a backlash against certain hiring quotas in the civil service. Since then the interim government has struggled to tamp down tensions between supporters of Hasina, a strong female leader who came to power in 2009, and her opponents. Hasina herself is currently in exile in India.
20: The Palestinian Authority, which enjoys limited self-rule in the West Bank, has reportedly signaled to the Trump administration that it could scrap its controversial “martyrs’ payments.” Under this 20-year-old policy, the PA gives financial support to the families of Palestinians killed or wounded while carrying out acts of violence against Israel or who are imprisoned by Israel. The PA has often framed the policy as a social welfare measure under conditions of occupation, while critics say that it’s a “pay to slay” policy that simply encourages more violence and terrorism.
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Abu Dhabi, UAE.
Is the European Union opening up to cooperation with the new government or regime in Damascus?
Yes, they are gradually. The foreign minister of the European Union took the decision early this week to start to ease sanctions on Syria that have been in place for years. And that is very important in order to start to get the economy going in the country. And that, of course, is very important in terms to start addressing all of the humanitarian needs. And also, eventually getting the economy going so that at some point in time perhaps people can start to move back to the country that they were forced to flee from during the years of civil war and repression.
Why was the prime minister of Serbia sacked?
That was part of a bigger move, defensive move, you can say by the president, by President Vučić. He has been under intense pressure due the last few months. There was an accident in Novi Sad, the second-biggest city that was blamed on the roof fell in, and that was blamed on bad construction and corruption. That has crystallized massive opposition to his regime, which has been there for a long time and is seen as increasingly authoritarian. So, pressure has been building up and he was now forced to concede sacking the prime minister and announcing new elections in April. So new elections in April in Serbia. There will be elections in Kosovo before that. There will be elections also in Albania. So, a lot of things are in flux in the Southern Balkans.
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Davos, Switzerland.
What’s been going on here?
It’s been Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. It’s been very much dominated by assessments, curiosity, concern about the transition in the US. A lot of businessmen are fairly, sort of, upbeat. They think there’s sort of a deregulation and lower taxes, that’s good. Economists are more worried. Debts and deficits, that’s not good. And those dealing with geopolitics, like myself, are deeply concerned.
Is he going to go to war with Denmark over Greenland? What’s going to happen with the Panama Canal? Is their Middle East policy that is credible? And what is he really up to when it comes to dealing with Mr. Putin on Ukraine? There are lots of questions, lots of concerns. But, upbeat assessment, in spite of that.
Houses are pictured in Ilulissat, Greenland, September 14, 2021.
Donald Trump wants Greenland. The vast, sparsely populated Arctic island has been under Danish control for 300 years, but back in 2019, when he was last president, he floated the idea of buying it. He recently reiterated that, and even refused to rule out using force to get what he wants.
Why would Trump want Greenland?
First, it’s a huge piece of the Arctic, where international competition with Russia and China for control over shipping routes and deepwater mining is heating up as the ice caps melt.
Second, it’s rich in rare earths, which are critical for the manufacture of advanced batteries and other electronics. China currently controls 80% of the world’s rare earths supply. Getting Greenland could change that.
Third, it has massive geothermal energy potential. That could provide virtually limitless clean energy for the energy-hungry AI revolution.
Greenland and Denmark both say the island is “not for sale”. But they’ve also shown interest in deeper economic and defense cooperation with the US, which has had bases in Greenland since World War Two. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen held a 45 minute call with Trump this week.
Meanwhile, polls show support for independence from Denmark is high. Denmark says it will respect whatever the Greenlanders decide on that front and that Trump should do the same.
Greenland's red flags. Despite the famously cheerful colors of their houses and the breathtaking beauty of Greenland's nature, the island's roughly 50,000 people struggle with a number of economic and social challenges. Skilled labor is in short supply, and inflation is high. The government and the fishing industry are by far the two largest employers. The population is shrinking as people emigrate. Suicide rates are routinely the highest in the world.
If the Trump Administration showed up with a significant promise of greenbacks for Greenland, both sides could benefit.
What could happen? Greenland could vote for independence in the near future. If so, the US will press firmly for a preferential bilateral agreement. The big question then would be whether Trump tries to go further, trying to secure more direct control. If so, would other interested global powers (looking at you Russia and China) try to stop that?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Why has NATO launched a new operation in the Baltic Sea?
Well the reason is to have better safety and security for the undersea infrastructure of different cables that we have in the Baltic Sea. There have been a number of incidents in the last few months when these cables have been damaged or cut by ships that have passed by dragging their anchors. They've often been associated with the part of what you call the 'shadow fleet' of earlier old rusty tankers transporting oil from Russia in violation of sanctions. So, the NATO operation is supposed to keep that under watch, prevent it, and secure the undersea infrastructure.
Are the sanctions against Russia by the EU and US really working?
Yes, they are. But of course it's a long-term effect. No question about that. They are degrading the strength of the Russian economy in a number of areas. Critical is the ability, which is a difficult one, to try to limit the gains in the profits that Russia is making off the oil exports, primarily to India and Russia. And I think the latest round of US sanctions and EU sanctions against the shadow of fleets of rusty old tankers, I think that will have an even more important effect than what we've seen so far.
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Northern Italy.
Why is the EU investigating TikTok over the elections in Romania?
Well in the first round of the Romanian presidential elections, there were suddenly, just days before the election, over 25,000 TikTok accounts that suddenly appeared. And they seemed to be supporting, very heavily, the rather sudden far-right candidate who had quite a result in that particular election that has subsequently been annulled. So it makes sense to investigate what really happened and who was behind it.
What is the new French prime minister doing in order to resolve the political crisis of the country?
Early days. He hasn't even presented his government as of yet. But I would guess that he will try to have a dialogue both with the elements of the moderate left and the moderate right to see if he can get a budget through. He is an experienced operator on the French political scene. Perhaps less determined in terms of policies than Michel Barnier was, but let's see. I think he'll present his policy program by mid-January, and there we'll be able to judge somewhat more clearly what prospects he has.
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Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from San Francisco, United States.
with all of the millions of Syrian refugees that you find in Europe, what's got to be the consequences for them of the fall of the Assad regime?
Well, the first thing that's happened is that European countries have imposed new asylum applications from Syria. That's fairly logical. But the bigger question is, of course, to which is that it will be possible for these people to return. Very many of them want to. There have been a huge number of people who've already returned, primarily from Turkey. But that's going to be dependent upon stability in the governance of Syria. That's still an open question for that. And secondly, economic reconstruction. That is both humanitarian aid and then lifting eventually the economic sanctions so that there is the possibility of bringing the country back again and people having the possibility to go back. Let's see, let's hope, and let's work on that.
What's the nature of the big agreement that is now being concluded with the European Union and the Mercosur countries of South America?
It's been negotiated for a very long time. It's a free trade agreement. It's a partnership agreement. It is going to be the biggest such in the world. It's two huge economies. Significant benefits in reducing trade and opening up for more of trade to the benefit of the European economy, to the benefit of the economies of the Latin American countries. There's still opposition to it in some European countries, notably France. That has to do with the French farmers fearing competition from more competitive Brazilian perhaps beef or whatever it is. That, has to be said, is something that is good for the European consumers. So slight battle ahead inside the European Union, but hopefully it will go through. And as I said, the biggest such deal that the world has seen so far.