Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What's on the agenda at the Three Amigos Summit?
Well, immigration is very high only between the US and Mexico. But still, the fact that Biden is willing to use this pandemic era clause to try to keep migrants from coming to the United States was not on my Bingo card six months ago. A lot of progressive Dems are unhappy with him, and a lot of conservatives are saying he's doing too little, too late, but nonetheless does recognize that he doesn't win any votes on balance by having large number of illegal immigrants continue to come to the United States. Also, a whole bunch of new NAFTA stuff, especially trade relations on energy with the Mexicans, Americans, and the Canadians, pretty unhappy with what AMLO has been doing on that front.
Is Russia on a path towards becoming a failed state?
No, I wouldn't say that at all. Their economy has contracted by 4% in 2022 will; contract by more this year over time. It's going to take a bigger and bigger hit because they've lost human capital and because they can't continue to do business with Europe, which is where most of their trade was happening. But still, they are an immensely wealthy and well positioned geographic country with all of these natural resources that the world needs and will need more of over time. So it's hard to imagine them becoming a failed state. They are instead becoming a rogue state.
Will banning public Palestinian flag flying lead to further conflict in Israel?
Absolutely. It's kind of funny. It used to be the case that the Israelis considered that the Palestinian flag was a militant flag, for Hamas or for Hezbollah, and so it wasn't allowed to be flown. That's no longer the case and wasn't true after the Oslo accords were signed. But now the new Netanyahu hard right coalition government has decided they're going to make it illegal to fly it once again. They also cut off a whole bunch of tax revenues that are supposed to go to the Palestinians. They're squeezing them hard, ostensibly in response to some Palestinian moves at the United Nations to embarrass Israel. But more broadly, because this is an Israeli government that is much less interested in engaging in negotiations and trying to create a peace process with the Palestinian. So yeah, it's going to lead to more conflict, to more violence, and the only thing I can say is that it's just not a priority for most of the countries in the region, so it doesn't drive much attention.
