Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Israel beginning its invasion of Rafah, is the recent Hamas agreed to cease-fire dead?
No. Though, of course, it was never really alive. Wasn't alive because the Israelis didn't agree to the terms that the Palestinians and Hamas did. But they are still negotiating and Israel's initial foray across the border to take over the crossing in Gaza is not, considered a redline, by the Americans, though it is disrupting humanitarian aid, and it's certainly not a full fledged invasion. So, I mean, again, escalation, lots of warnings, expectation that invasion is going to ensue quickly. But still a possibility that you get a short term cease-fire, a short term cease-fire. We'll see.
Will widespread flooding in Brazil lead to a larger crisis in the region?
Not in the near term. It is going to put some fiscal pressure on Brazil. You know, about 100 looks like dead and missing, and horrible floods, very costly. A result of an El Nino this year which we're seeing in a lot of places. And Brazil is going to have to continue to spend on this. And a lot of countries are and those costs, of course, a lot easier for the developed countries to manage than developing. And loss and damages from natural disasters is not a well funded effort by the wealthy on the planet at this point.
Will a Russian invasion of Ukraine endure as long as Putin, who begins his fifth term as president, remains in office?
While it's been going on since 2014. And so we're in our second decade of Russian invasion of Ukraine. I don't think the fighting has to continue as long as Putin is in office. I am hopeful that at some point, a negotiation can end this conflict. But it's not going to lead to peace between Russia and Ukraine as long as Putin is in office. It's not going to lead to a reestablishment of diplomatic ties between Russia and NATO countries as long as Putin is in office. And, it also isn't going to lead, to the Ukrainians taking all their land back as long as Putin is in office. So those are the problems. And, that's going to be with us for a while.
