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Latin America & Caribbean
President Donald Trump talks with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a North Atlantic Treaty Organization Plenary Session at the NATO summit in Watford, Britain, in December 2019.
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a one-month tariff reprieve on all Mexican and Canadian goods governed by the USMCA, as well as potash,until reciprocal tariffs are imposed worldwide on April 2.Canada supplies 80% of US potash, a critical component of fertilizer. The decrees follow Wednesday’s one-month tariff reprieve for America’s Big 3 automakers: Stellantis, Ford, and General Motors.
What will be tariff-free? According to senior administration officials, 50% of goods entering the US from Mexico and 38% of goods from Canada would qualify. Some Canadian energy products will still be subject to a 10% tariff, and some Mexican products, like computers, will still face a 25% tariff.
How have Canada and Mexico responded? Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had not imposed tariffs but was set to announce them Sunday if no deal was reached.
Canada’s initial set of tariffs on $30 billion in American goods imposed on Tuesday will remain. A second wave of $150 billion set to take effect after 20 days has reportedly been suspended until April. Ontario Premier Doug Ford also said that Canada would be imposing a 25% tariff on electricity exports starting Monday, regardless of whether tariffs would be lifted. Canadian provinces have also removed US-made alcohol from store shelves and barred American firms from procurement contracts, and there is no sign that this measure will be reversed.
Why did Trump change course? Trump said “I wasn’t even looking at the market” but major stock indexes plummeted this week, as investors were spooked by the uncertainty. In the Oval Office, Trump said “This is about companies and countries that have been ripping off our country and they won’t be ripping off our country anymore.”
Trump’s reprieve on Mexico specifically mentioned actions taken to stem the flow of illegal aliens and fentanyl into the US. This contrasts with his conversation Wednesday with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in which Trump claimed Canada’s efforts on fentanylwere insufficient to drop US tariffs.
But the US president has citedother reasons for tariffs on Canada, including accusing the country of not allowing US banks to operate there and falsely claiming that the US “subsidizes” Canada to the tune of $200 billion a year. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick alsoaccused Canada of having a “national tariff” on US products because it has a 5-15% federal-provincial sales tax.US President Donald Trump gave America’s Big Three automakers a one-month tariff reprieve but expects them to use the time to shift production from Canada and Mexico to the United States. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced the temporary exemption Wednesday after Trump held a call with the CEOs of Stellantis, Ford, and GM, at their request. Levitt also made it clear that, as of April 2, reciprocal tariffs will go into effect worldwide.
What are they? In a nutshell, Trump will slap tariffs on other countries that match the tariffs those countries place on the US.
Which countries would be most affected? India, Argentina, South Korea, and Brazil had the highest tariff regimes as of 2023. India recently cut levies on many US imports, including motorcycles, but still has tariffs on imported cars of up to 110%, leaving small exporters demanding further reductions from Delhi. Argentinian President Javier Milei recently praised Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs and said he wants to pursue a reciprocal trade pact, even if it means leaving the Mercosur trade pact with neighboring South American countries.
Will Trump reverse course? It’s possible but unlikely. Trump has long been a believer in tariffs. In his address to Congress on Tuesday evening, he said “Tariffs are not just about protecting American jobs. They’re about protecting the soul of our country.”Staff remove bottles of US alcohol from the shelves of a Liquor Control Board of Ontario store as part of retaliatory moves against tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, in Toronto, Canada, on March 4, 2025.
It’s official: The United States is now waging a full-blown trade war against three of its largest trading partners. On Tuesday, Washington imposed tariffs of 10% on energy and 25% on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico and doubled its existing tariffs on Chinese imports from 10 to 20%. All three countries responded with harsh words and retaliatory measures.
Canada imposed an immediate 25% retaliatory tariff on $30 billion worth of US goods, with an additional $125 billion worth of products to be tariffed in 21 days. Provincial liquor stores removed American alcohol and Ontario Premier Doug Ford ripped up a $100 million contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink. Ford alsothreatened a 25% retaliatory tariff on electricity exports. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the tariffs “dumb,” prompting US President Donald Trump to repeat his taunt of “Governor Trudeau” and promiseeven higher tariffs in response to retaliatory efforts.
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum took a slower approach. “We have said it in different ways: cooperation and coordination, yes; subordination and interventionism, no,” she said. Sheinbaum plans to speak with Trump by phone on Thursday and will announce retaliatory measures on Sunday if no deal is reached.
China, meanwhile, placed an additional 10% to 15% tariffs on imported US goods, including chicken, wheat, soybeans, and beef as of March 10. Beijing says it will “fight to the bitter end of any trade war” but left the door open for talks, advising the US to “return to the right track of dialogue and cooperation before it is too late.”
The tariff war had immediate economic effects.Markets plunged, the price of a Dodge Ram truck reportedly rose from $80,000 to $100,000, and by mid-March American gas prices could rise by as much as40 cents per gallon, while Ford said the auto manufacturing sector in Canada could shut down.
Could Trump change course? We’ll be watching for further market volatility as well as blowback from consumers, businesses, and politicians. But stay tuned for a possible course correction: US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick already hinted Tuesday that Trump is considering “relief for USMCA-compliant goods” and “may roll back Canada and Mexico tariffs tomorrow.”
Guyana President Irfaan Ali at the State Department in Washington in 2022.
In response, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali triggered a military response, deploying the country’s naval and air forces to defend the oil megaproject poised to remake the economy of one of South America’s poorest nations.
The incursion came just days after US President Donald Trump canceled Chevron’s licenses to exempt some Venezuelan oil exports from sanctions. The maritime escalation followed an attack last month in which a suspected Venezuelan gang opened fire on Guyanese soldiers, injuring six on patrol along the Cuyuní River.
The background: A year ago, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro signed a law designating Essequibo, a sparsely populated region that comprises roughly two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, as a new state of Venezuela. While Caracas revived its claim to the region in the 1960s, a series of treaties over the last two centuries have repeatedly given Guyana and its colonial forebears control over Essequibo.
Essequibo is rich in deposits of gold and copper, and its seafloor off the coast contains vast oil reserves that Exxon started developing in recent years.
A united front: What Ali’s government lacks in military weapons it seems to be making up for in powerful friends. Washington and London both affirmed support for Georgetown, as did the Organization of American States and the Commonwealth. Guyana’s private sector and the opposition party issued statements backing the government. We'll be watching for signs of how far Venezuela is likely to go to assert its claims over Essequibo.Hard Numbers: California calls for help, Kenyan killed in Haiti, Trump tariffs to hit Canada soon, Apple to invest big, DRC casualties, An exit from Brexit
Governor of California Gavin Newsom speaks next to U.S. President Donald Trump upon Trump's arrival to tour areas impacted or destroyed by the southern California wildfires, at Los Angeles International Airport in Los Angeles, California, on Jan. 24, 2025.
40 billion: California Gov. Gavin Newsom has asked Congress to approve nearly$40 billion in aid to help the Los Angeles area recover from January’s wildfires. Total economic losses from the firestorm have been estimated above $250 billion.
1: A Kenyan police officer was killed on Sunday in Haiti, north of Port-au-Prince. This is thefirst casualty since the Kenyan-led security mission arrived on a mission to stabilize Haiti in June 2024.
25: Been wondering what happened to Donald Trump’s threat to impose huge tariffs on Canada? Well, the US president said Monday the plan for 25% tariffs on most Canadian goods is still very much alive and will start next week. Trump said work on their implementation was “moving along very rapidly.”
500 billion: Apple said Monday it willinvest $500 billion to expand its US facilities over the next four years, a move the company says will create 20,000 jobs. Earlier this month, President Donald Trump announced tariffs of 10% on all imports from China, from which Apple imports many products. Trump attributed the investment to his tariffs.
7,000: Judith Suminwa, prime minister of the Democratic Republic of Congo, told a meeting of the Human Rights Council in Geneva on Monday that about7,000 people have died since January in fighting in the eastern part of the country. That figure includes both combatants and civilians.
15: Applications by Britons for Irish citizenship hit a post-Brexit high last year as a growing number of workers and pensioners tried to gain “backdoor” access into the EU. British applications to the Foreign Births Register, a citizenship route for people with Irish grandparents or parents,jumped 15% in 2024 to 23,456.
The Minister of the Supreme Court of Brazil, Alexandre de Moraes
A media company controlled by President Donald Trump on Wednesday launched a lawsuit against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
The suit alleges that Moraes, who has led a controversial crusade against “fake news” in Brazil, violated US protections on free speech when he sought to shutter the US-based accounts of an unnamed right-wing social media influencer who supported former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
Timing is everything: The suit came just hours after Bolsonaro himself was indicted Tuesday for alleged involvement in a failed coup after he lost his 2022 presidential reelection bid to arch-nemesis Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The charges include allegations that Bolsonaro plotted to kill both Lula and Moraes.
Bolsonaro is a big Trump ally: The far-right firebrand even spent several weeks at Mar-a-Lago after losing his election.
Further sparks await: The lawsuit escalates tensions between the largest economy in the Americas and the largest economy in South America. Brazil had recently sought to avoid conflict by declining to retaliate against Washington’s new steel and aluminum tariffs. But Trump has also singled out Brazil for shielding its ethanol industry to the detriment of American farmers. The suit against Moraes will complicate any new Washington-Brasilia trade talks.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What is Trump's long-term play with apparently treating Putin like a friend rather than an adversary?
His play is to end the war in Ukraine. His play is to be seen as a great deal-maker and also a return to what we call the law of the jungle, where the most powerful countries are the ones that deserve to be at the table, and if you're not at the table you're being served for dinner. That is where I think we're going. I don't think that Secretary of State Marco Rubio wanted to be there, but he's much more... He's going to be loyal, and I think the Republican senators have pushed back hard on Gaza but not so much on this. We'll see. Certainly from Riyadh, from what we've heard from Elon, what we've heard from Trump, they are working very hard to get a full reconciliation between the United States and Russia, between Trump and Putin, irrespective of what the Europeans have to say about it. And the Ukrainians are going to be pressed very, very hard to accept the deal or be left all by themselves. We'll see how the Europeans and the Ukrainians play it, but that is what they're looking at.
How likely would the release of all remaining captives, as proposed by Hamas, actually lead to a permanent truce with Israel?
Well permanent truce with Israel implies you can agree on what governance in Gaza is going to look like. The Israelis, of course, refuse to accept a state for the Palestinians. The Israelis refuse not only for Hamas to participate in any government, not surprisingly. But, of course, also the Palestinian authority participate in government. That's very different from what the Gulf states, what the Egyptians, what the Jordanians, all America's allies, are planning to propose for Gaza. I think we can get an extended ceasefire. That ceasefire might last essentially permanently, but the Israelis would still have a buffer zone, you wouldn't be heading towards statehood, and the Israelis would reserve the right to continue to engage in selected strikes if they see targets of opportunity that they consider to be militants working with for Hamas. So that's where I think we are, but very unlikely at this point that I think you'll see a restart of the war that has been lasting for well over a year at this point. I think full-blown military incursion on the ground is now on the rear-view mirror.
Does Bolsonaro's indictment for an alleged coup plot signal tough times ahead for Brazil?
I think it does. It's very likely that Bolsonaro is going to end up imprisoned. That case is going to take a while to work through the courts. Probably won't be resolved until 2026 with all the appeals that will end up happening, but he won't be able to run again. Now you can still announce you're going to run and then pull out your candidacy at the last minute like Lula did, who served time in jail himself in the past, so this isn't completely new uncharted territory for the Brazilians. But keep in mind that if Bolsonaro is refused to be allowed to run, he is completely supported by Trump. He's completely supported by Elon Musk, and that will get stronger. The Supreme Court in Brazil is politicized and is also seen by Trump and Musk as root of all evil in Brazil, so they'll be going after that. And will that be tied to tougher tariffs on Brazil? I expect it will. So, I think Brazil is going to be in a lot of trouble here, and I think that their economy is probably going to take a hit on the back of what we're going to see politically inside Brazil and the nature of the relations with the United States. Okay, that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.