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Middle East
Argentine President Javier Milei speaks during the America Business Forum at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, USA, on November 6, 2025.
$20 billion: Argentine President Javier Milei had a fantastic midterm election last month, but the celebration might be coming to an abrupt end: A group of US banks shelved its $20-billion bailout plan for the South American nation, favoring instead a short-term loan package.
6: A group of six US Democratic lawmakers published a video telling military and intelligence officials that they must disobey illegal orders. The move irked President Donald Trump, who suggested that the move constituted, “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!”
70 million: The Louvre wasn’t the only site of a successful heist in broad daylight this fall, as a group of men posing as Indian central bank officials robbed a vehicle that held 70 million rupees ($800,000) in the southern state of Karnataka on Wednesday afternoon, per police. Law enforcement is still searching for the culprits.
41: Relentless rains and flooding in central Vietnam have killed at least 41 people, left nine missing, submerged over 52,000 homes, and cut power to half a million households. Hard-hit cities like Hoi An and Nha Trang face evacuations, landslides, and infrastructure collapse as typhoons grow increasingly frequent.
10.5: The former leader of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party was sentenced to ten-and-a-half years in prison this morning for accepting pro-Russian bribes. Nathan Gill was paid thousands of pounds to deliver TV interviews in favor of an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reform UK has taken a more dovish position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than other parties in the United Kingdom.
$1 trillion: During his White House visit this week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to increase his investment in US firms to nearly $1 trillion. There’s just one problem: Riyadh’s Public Investment Fund is running low on cash, according to a New York Times report.
Hard Numbers: 80 years since the Nuremberg trials, Gazan ceasefire holds despite strikes, US and India inch closer to detente, Epstein files out before Christmas
Senior Nazi figures – Hermann Goering (1893-1946), Rudolf Hess (1894-1987), Joachim von Ribentrop (1893-1946), and Wilhelm Keitel (1882-1946) – stand trial in Nuremberg, Germany, 1945-46.
80: Exactly 80 years ago today, the Nuremberg trials began. One scholar who knows a thing or two about the subject says it’s a reminder that international law – despite the punchline that it sometimes seems to be – can also make a real difference.
25: The Israeli military struck parts of Gaza yesterday, killing at least 25 people, per Hamas-linked local health officials. Israel said the attacks were in response to Hamas militants opening fire on its forces. There were another set of Israeli airstrikes on Wednesday that reportedly killed five. Both sides said they were still committed to keeping the ceasefire, though each side is struggling to move forward with the second phase of the ceasefire deal.
$93 million: In another sign that trade tensions between the world’s richest country and the world’s most populous country are easing, the US approved a $93-million deal to sell arms to India. The purchase also marks Delhi’s latest move away from buying Russian arms and toward purchasing US ones.
30: After US President Donald Trump signed the bill last night, the Justice Department has 30 days to release all of the Epstein files. It remains to be seen whether the release will be comprehensive – the department can withhold documents related to ongoing investigations – but Attorney General Pam Bondi has said that she would “encourage maximum transparency.”
What We’re Watching: UN backs US plan for Gaza, Trump to sell fighter jets to Saudi, Zelensky seeks funds with money well running dry
UN Security Council members vote on a draft resolution to Authorize an International Stabilization Force in Gaza authored by the US at UN Headquarters in New York, NY on November 17, 2025.
UN Security council approves Trump plan for Gaza
The resolution lends international legitimacy to a multi-national peacekeeping force and US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. Not everyone loves it. Russia and China abstained, saying the resolution gives too much leeway to the US to shape Gaza’s future. Israel, meanwhile, objected to language gesturing towards a possible future Palestinian state. Hamas rejected the resolution outright and said it refuses to disarm. That’s still the hard reality on the ground: how many countries, UN resolution or not, will be willing to send their troops into a firefight with Hamas?
Trump says he’ll sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia as crown prince arrives
Ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to the White House today, Trump announced Monday that he would sell F-35 fighter planes to the Gulf state. If fully approved, Saudi Arabia would be only the second country in the Middle East – after Israel – to successfully purchase these jets. Several other deals are set to be announced, too, including on civilian nuclear infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and even hotels, bringing the two oil-producing states closer together. Do these deals remove the incentives for Saudi to join the Abraham Accords? Not necessarily – they still would love access to Israeli tech – but it does mean they’re in less of a rush.
Ukraine is on the hunt for more funds and peace talks
Ukraine desperately needs more funds, and Europe is at an impasse on how to refill its coffers. Belgium blocked a loan plan that would use the $160 billion of Russia’s central bank assets to fund Ukraine, fearing it could be on the hook if Russia demanded its money back or retaliated against Euroclear, the Belgian central securities depository where the funds are held. While the EU is looking for ways to allay Brussels’s worries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is turning to Spain and Turkey for funds and peace deals: Madrid announced a $1.16-billion aid package after meeting with Zelensky, who is now heading to Turkey, where he will try to “reinvigorate” peace talks with Russia.Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman reacts next to US President Donald Trump during the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025.
For the first time in seven years, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is returning to Washington, DC, this week. While crude oil has traditionally pulled the two countries close together, it is now the great power-chess game between the US and China that is making them join forces.
MBS, as the de-facto Saudi leader is known, and US President Donald Trump have much to discuss when it comes to peace in the Middle East. The chances of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel by joining the Abraham Accords are slim. Nonetheless, defense agreements will be on the table, as Saudi Arabia seeks to bolster its protections in what has been a tumultuous year in the region.
The US-Saudi relationship has come full circle since the crown prince’s last visit in 2018. Since then, there was the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi – reportedly sanctioned by the crown prince – at a Saudi consulate in Turkey, which created major tensions. Those were exacerbated after Riyadh got upset with Washington when it refused to respond to the 2019 Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities. Then, during the 2020 campaign, Joe Biden suggested Saudi Arabia should be a “pariah.” Biden then sought to ease tensions in 2022, as he wanted Riyadh to pump more oil to alleviate high inflation rates. And now the AI race between the US and China has pushed Riyadh and Washington closer together.
“[Khashoggi’s death] hung like a pall over MBS reputation in the United States,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Initiative in Washington, told GZERO. “Time has worn away the sting a little bit.”
The Middle East has also changed dramatically over the past seven years. Israel was locked in a brutal war with Hamas for the past two years, with a fragile ceasefire keeping the peace for now. More Arab nations are concerned about the conflict spilling over, too, especially after Israel bombed Qatar in a failed bid to kill Hamas leaders. Meanwhile, the influence of Saudi’s top enemy, Iran, has diminished, as its proxies in the region – the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza – have all been hobbled or even removed.
“Iran is no longer the strategic threat that it was seven years ago,” Ibish said. “[But] there is still this need on the part of Saudi Arabia for American security guarantees.”
So what will Trump and bin Salman discuss? First and foremost for the crown prince will be defense. There are two aspects to this: firstly, Saudi wants a defense agreement akin to what the US signed with Qatar, ensuring that the US will defend the Gulf state in case of attack. Secondly, the Saudis want to buy F-35 planes from the US – Israel is the only Middle East country that has successfully negotiated and executed a purchase agreement of F-35s.
“The US public and US government and Trump have been a little bit more critical of Israel,” Alia Awadallah, who was a Pentagon official during Biden’s term in office, told GZERO, suggesting that the US may be willing to sell to a country other than Israel. “[Saudi Arabia] will be trying to assess whether it’s actually realistic to get that type of sale through both the White House, but also through Congress, which would have to approve it.”
The US is sure to bring up something that has layed tantalizingly out of reach: the Abraham Accords. Trump is reportedly still pressing MBS to recognize Israel and join the Accords, arguing that the peace he successfully brokered in Gaza should be enough to prompt Riyadh to do so. But the crown prince has repeatedly said that he wouldn’t do this until Israel recognizes a Palestinian state, so the chances of him signing the accords on this trip are close to null.
“At a minimum, this requires phase two of the Gaza ceasefire being implemented, and Israeli assurances regarding the Palestinian right of self determination,” said Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “And we’re not there yet.”
If there’s no agreement on the Accords, there’s likely to be more on artificial intelligence. It is this area – rather than oil – that is pushing the two countries closer together, per Maksad. Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May was all about AI, with Saudi firms pledging billions of dollars in investments. In return, Riyadh wants access to items like Nvidia’s AI chips for its data centers. Meanwhile the US wants to see those incoming investments, while ensuring that Saudi secures rights to critical minerals in Africa, grants US access to them, and blocks China from getting them. This trip will be a chance to firm up these AI ties.
“Although the headlines continue to be animated by the prospect of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia… that is the wrong lens to be looking at things,” said Maksad. “This [US-Saudi] relationship is increasingly shaped by great power competitions, particularly US-China dynamics, rather than anything specific to the region and the Arab-Israeli conflict.”
Hard Numbers: India’s Modi has excellent election day, US agrees to cut Swiss tariffs, 12-year manhunt for Assad ally ends, & More
India's Home Minister Amit Shah and India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh present a garland to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters celebrate the Bihar state assembly election results, at the party headquarters in New Delhi, India, November 14, 2025.
200: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition is headed for a landslide win in Bihar, securing over 200 of 243 seats in a key test of the leader’s popularity ahead of major state and national elections. The victory strengthens his fragile federal coalition and weakens the opposition
15%: The US and Switzerland reached a deal to bring tariffs down on the European country from 39% to 15%, lowering the price of pharmaceuticals, gold, watches, and chocolate that Americans import from the Swiss. The high rate was in part because of the high trade surplus that Switzerland had with the United States. The US also cut levies on certain products from four Latin American countries.
12: A 12-year manhunt for a Syrian official accused of war crimes has finally come to an end, after Austrian officials indicted him for torture. Brig. Gen. Khaled al-Halabi, who hid in plain sight in Paris and Vienna, was captured last December, but was only charged on Wednesday in connection with actions he took while helping to quell the Arab Spring from 2011 to 2013.
10: Canada is still taking Trump’s missives against them personally: October marked the 10th consecutive month of decline in the number of Canadians traveling to the United States. Air travel fell 24% compared to this month last year, and car travel by 30%. The slowdown is hurting some US businesses.
20,000: Germany’s government has created a new military service plan aimed at boosting the number of troops by 20,000 within the next year, taking the total enlisted above 200,000. Under the plan, all 18-year-old men will have to fill out a questionnaire on whether they are suitable to serve and, from 2027, undergo medical screening. Germany’s military past means it has been reluctant to remilitarize in the post-war period – until now.
- Viewpoint: India gears up for biggest elections ever ›
- Modi opens Hindu Temple of Ram with eye on elections ›
- What does democracy look like in Modi's India? ›
- India's Modi seeks to burnish his legacy with G-20 presidency ›
- Modi’s party posts landslide election victories ›
- What We’re Watching: Modi tested in India elections, Iraq election promises little, Cambodia-Thailand truce on the rocks ›
Hard Numbers: Israel arrests violent settlers, US House ends extended recess, Botswana eyes majority stake in diamond giant, & More
An Israeli activist is seen recording illegal settlers driving past a village in Masafer Yatta in the West Bank, on October 28, 2025.
4: Israeli police arrested four Jewish nationalists Tuesday after dozens of them attacked Palestinians and set fire to property in the West Bank. The issue of settler violence in the region has grown over the last two years – in tandem with the war in Gaza – but has spiked further in recent weeks, as Palestinians have been taking to the fields to harvest olives.
54: Who wouldn’t enjoy an almost eight-week break? Well that’s just what members of the US House of Representatives have had, but they are finally returning from their 54-day recess to vote on a continuing resolution that will end the government shutdown. Expect a vote later today.
49: A Catholic mother in the Normandy town of Dozule claimed in the 1970s that she had seen Jesus (of Nazareth) not once, not twice, but 49 times. The Vatican disagrees, though, affirming today that reports of those sightings were not genuine. The last Vatican-confirmed Jesus sighting was in 2013, when his face reportedly appeared at a church in India.
14: Hungary has extended a profit-margin cap to 14 more consumer products, including apples and processed cheese, as inflation remains elevated. Ahead of next spring elections, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is increasingly under pressure from Peter Magyar, the popular Fidesz defector who is now leading him in some polls.
15%: Botswana is bidding to acquire a majority stake of the diamond giant De Beers, up from its 15% share of the firm. The southern African nation’s move is part of an effort to reverse the diamond industry downturn – read all about that here (and watch a video about it here).
What We’re Watching: Modi tested in India elections, Iraq election promises little, Cambodia-Thailand truce on the rocks
An Indian security personnel stands guard as women voters queue to cast their ballots at a polling station during the Budgam Assembly constituency bypoll in Budgam district, Jammu and Kashmir, on November 11, 2025.
Local election test for India’s prime minister
The state of Bihar, population 174 million, is holding local legislative elections seen as a test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling BJP party, which is currently in power there. Local parties aligned with the opposition Congress party are posing a stiff challenge in an election focused on poverty alleviation (Bihar is India’s poorest state) and competing welfare schemes for female voters, who are now an important bloc. But with Modi under broader economic pressure from US tariffs and Russian oil sanctions, a loss in Bihar would be a bad omen. Adding to his woes, authorities are still seeking those responsible for a terrorist attack that killed 13 outside the historic Red Fort in Delhi yesterday.
Iraq’s election pits Washington against Tehran
Iraqis head to the polls today to vote for the country’s 329-member parliament, largely disillusioned over what they see as an election that will just be used to figure out how to divide the Middle East country’s oil reserves. That’s not the top concern for Iraqis: endemic corruption, inadequate services, and high unemployment are also leaving voters frustrated. The next Parliament will also have to contend with a delicate foreign policy balance: they must placate dozens of armed groups that have Iranian ties, while the US pressures them to dismantle these groups. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s party is forecast to win the most seats but fall short of a majority.
Cambodia and Thailand suspend Trump-brokered peace deal
On Monday, Thailand suspended peace talks with Cambodia after two soldiers were killed by a landmine in disputed border territory. The two countries had been planning to start negotiations to release prisoners of war tomorrow, but that has now been called off. Cambodia denies laying new landmines – saying they are the remnants of three decades of war in the region. The two-week old Donald Trump-brokered peace agreement now hangs in the balance. The US president initiated the ceasefire by threatening to stop tariff negotiations if the conflict continued – will he intervene again to get it back on track?