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Tehran's best and worst-case scenarios

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The US and Israel launch war on Iran
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Quick Take

The US and Israel launch war on Iran

​Women prepare a makeshift memorial in tribute to Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on a street, after he was killed in Israeli and U.S. strikes on Saturday, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 4, 2026.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
by ian bremmer

After decapitation, what’s next?

Trump & Netanyahu's war plans hit a snag of "utmost concern"
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Puppet Regime

Trump & Netanyahu's war plans hit a snag of "utmost concern"

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​An explosion in Sanandaj, Kurdistan province, Iran, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in this still image from a social media video released on March 5, 2026.
Social Media/via REUTERS
What We're Watching

New fronts of Iran conflict, A better week for Russia than Ukraine, US and Spain butt heads

​People attend the funeral of a person who was killed in alleged Pakistani airstrikes, in the Ghani Khel district of Nangarhar province.
Analysis

From allies to enemies: Pakistan and Afghanistan in “open war”

While Iran fights in a new war against Israel and the United States, its neighbors to the east have been drawn into a conflict of their own.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, visits Hezbollah's office in Tehran, Iran, October 1, 2024.
What We're Watching

Khamenei’s son emerges as favorite to succeed him, Nepal to hold election, US helps Ecuador in drug raids

When the Islamic Republic’s senior clerics met yesterday to decide on the next supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly emerged as the favorite to succeed his assassinated father, Ali Khamenei.

Iran conflict: who could run out of weapons first?
Graphic Truth

Iran conflict: who could run out of weapons first?

The US and Israel have weapons and defense systems that are far more sophisticated than Iran’s. Precision missiles. Advanced radar. Missile defense systems stacked on top of each other.

What comes next in the US-Israel war with Iran?
Quick Take

What comes next in the US-Israel war with Iran?

In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer examines what may come next in the US-Israel war with Iran as the Trump administration signals significantly larger military operations ahead.

​Fighters from the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), an Iranian Kurdish opposition group, are pictured near the border with Iran in Iraq's Kurdistan Region, in the outskirts of Sulaimaniya, Iraq, June 21, 2025.
What We're Watching

The US and Israel reportedly court the Kurds, The race for US Congress begins, China’s new five-year plan

​A satellite image shows black smoke rising and heavy damage at Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's compound in Tehran, Iran, on February 28, 2026.
Analysis

Iran conflict spirals, with no end in sight

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead, the conflict is spreading, and US President Donald Trump still isn’t clear on who he wants to run Iran.

How the Iran conflict could disrupt the world’s oil supply
Graphic Truth

How the Iran conflict could disrupt the world’s oil supply

Shipping in the world’s most crucial oil chokepoint has nearly ground to a halt after at least four tankers were targeted in Iran’s retaliation to US and Israeli strikes on Saturday.

Almost everyone in Iran “just waiting for Ayatollah Khamenei to die”
GZERO World Clips

Almost everyone in Iran “just waiting for Ayatollah Khamenei to die”

For many in Iran, it’s a waiting game for how long Ayatollah Khamenei has left to live.

​Iranian pro-government protesters wave national flags while participating in an anti-war protest gathering against the U.S. and Israeli military attacks in Iran, in Tehran, Iran, on February 28, 2026.
Analysis

The US and Israel struck Iran. What happens next?

The US and Israel struck several sites in coordinated attacks across Iran this morning. The total number of casualties across Iran is also unknown, though one of the missiles hit a girls’ school in Iran, reportedly killing 53 people.

Iran at war with Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast

Iran at war with Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour

The US and Israel have launched a series of strikes against Iran at a moment when the Islamic Regime is at its weakest. Ian Bremmer spoke with Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour in Munich earlier this month to understand the choices the regime and population are facing.