Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
News
What We’re Watching: Senate vote on Trump’s big bill, Thai PM in hot water, Japan's name-change game
U.S. Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) speaks to reporters between votes at the U.S. Capitol building in Washington, U.S., January 23, 2024.
Trump’s tax-and-spending bill faces razor-thin Senate vote
The US Senate will vote today on President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”. The legislation would make many of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent and would boost spending on the military and immigration enforcement, but its proposed cuts could also leave nearly 12 million people without health insurance by 2034. That, and a projected $3.3 trillion national debt increase over the next decade, has stoked opposition even within the Republican party. GOP Senators Rand Paul and Thom Tillis – who announced he won’t seek reelection – are already opposed, meaning Trump can afford only two more defections. Expect today to be a marathon of votes and revisions to the legislation.
Thailand’s PM in hot water over cross-border phone call
Thousands of protestors gathered in Bangkok yesterday, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over a leaked phone call in which she was heard obsequiously flattering Cambodia’s still-influential former leader Hun Sen. The call played poorly in the light of a recent border spat between the two countries. Paetongtarn defended the call as a negotiation tactic, but the streets say she’s compromising Thailand’s sovereignty. Thailand’s Constitutional Court will rule this week on a petition calling for her removal.
Japan’s name change game
A campaign is afoot in Japan to relax a law that effectively requires women to take their husband’s last names. Proponents of the change, which is supported by most Japanese, say it will increase gender equality, boost Japan’s alarmingly low birthrate, and avoid a situation in which, over time, everyone ends up with the most common last name: “Sato.” But the governing LDP’s hard-right wing is opposed, and with an upper house election in July, the party wants no trouble. For now, “Satos all the way down” looks like Japan’s destiny after all.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Democratic Republic of the Congo's Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner and Rwanda's Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe on June 27, 2025.
On June 27, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed a US-mediated peace accord in Washington, D.C., to end decades of violence in the DRC’s resource-rich Great Lakes region. The agreement commits both nations to cease hostilities, withdraw troops, and to end support for armed groups operating in eastern Congowithin 90 days.
But the deal also includes a critical minerals partnership with the United States, granting it privileged access to the region’s vast cobalt, lithium, tantalum, andcoltan reserves. These essential components of electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense applications have come increasinglyunder Chinese control due to Beijing’s backing of Rwandan mining and refining operations, something Washington wants to change.
So is this deal about ending conflict – or countering China? Will it hold? And do peace pacts now always come with a price?
A conflict rooted in ethnic strife and resource competition
Tensions between the DRC and Rwanda date back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which the country’s Hutu majority killed as many as 800,000 people in the Tutsi minority. Many of the Hutu militias responsible for those crimes then fled to eastern Congo, sparking regional wars that killed millions more.
In the past year, the M23 militia, a Tutsi-linked group reportedlybacked by Rwanda’s current Tutsi-led government, seized key mining territoryin the DRC’s North Kivu province,displacing over 450,000 people. The United Nations and human rights groups say Rwanda is using M23 to plunder Congolese minerals, a charge the Rwandan government denies. The conflict has killed thousands and displaced as many as 2 million people.
What’s in the peace deal – and what isn’t
The agreement includes a framework titled “Critical Minerals for Security and Peace,” which allows US companies to invest in Congolese mining and processing under joint governance with Rwanda. The region’s mineral wealthis estimated at $24 trillion.
Human rights watchdogs warn, however, that the deal lacks enforcement and oversight. It also doesn’t include provisions for accountability over war crimes,sexual violence, or illegal mining.
Will the deal last?
There are roadblocks ahead. The M23 group itself was not party to the agreement, and has rejected its terms. And neither Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi nor Rwandan President Paul Kagamewere present at the signing ceremony, sending their foreign ministers instead; the two leaders will reportedly meet later with US President Donald Trump. Qatar, whichhosted talks between the DRC and M23 in early June, did attend the signing ceremony and has pledged to continue diplomatic efforts in the region.
According to Tresor Kibangula, a political analyst at Congo's Ebuteli research institute,the deal imparts "a strategic message: securing the east also means securing investments.” But in a conflict with such deep roots, he questions whether the “economic logic” alone will suffice to bring a lasting peace.
A banner announces the construction of a photovoltaic solar farm in Cabaiguan, Cuba, on May 21, 2025.
55: China is financing 55 new solar power projects in Cuba this year, the latest sign of how it is overtaking Russia as the crisis-wracked island’s main benefactor. Some of Moscow’s recent projects in the communist country have stalled: a Russian firm pledged two years ago to revitalize a sugar mill that once employed 2,000 people, but it still sits idle.
3%: In a win for US President Donald Trump, Canada walked back on its 3% Digital Services Tax that prompted the United States to suspend trade talks on Friday. The tax, which disproportionately affected American technology firms, was set to take effect on Monday.
71: Israel’s strike last Tuesday allegedly killed 71 people at a notorious detention facility in Tehran, per Iranian State Media. The prison houses thousands of political prisoners, including opposition politicians, journalists, and activists.
4,000: More than a third of Tuvalu’s population – around 4,000 residents – have applied for a landmark ‘climate visa,’ which grants Australian residency to migrants from Pacific Island nations battling rising sea levels. NASA scientists expect that the country’s main island, home to 60% of the population, will be fully submerged by 2050.
$80,000: US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem reportedly re-routed $80,000 in political donations to a newly established personal company during her time as South Dakota’s governor in 2023. Noem’s lawyer said she “fully complied with the letter and the spirit of the law.”Anna Wintour attends The Costume Institute's exhibition "Superfine: Tailoring Black Style" at The Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City, U.S., May 5, 2025.
37: Anna Wintour is stepping down after 37 years as editor-in-chief of American Vogue. She revolutionised the iconic fashion magazine, introducing celebrities to the cover and spotlighting emerging designers. Wintour will remain Vogue’s global editor, as well as chief content officer at the magazine’s publisher Condé Nast.
1: China’s Central Military Commission, the country’s highest military leadership body, now has one fewer member after voting to remove Miao Hua, senior admiral of the People’s Liberation Army. Miao has been under investigation for “serious violations of discipline” since last November, and his ouster is seen as part of a broader crackdown on corruption under Chinese President Xi Jinping.
28: Norwegian police on Friday accused Marius Borg Høiby, the 28-year old stepson of Crown Prince Haakon, of multiple counts of rape, sexual assault, and bodily harm. The announcement follows a months-long investigation involving “double-digit” victims.
$30 million: The US State Department approved $30 million in funding for the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a controversial US and Israeli-backed aid organization that has been criticized by the UN and other rights groups. Over 400 Palestinians have been killed at various aid points in recent weeks, per UN estimates, after Israeli soldiers fired into crowds seeking food. Israel has reportedly launched a war-crime probe into the incidents.What We’re Watching: Budapest Pride parade, Rwanda and DRC peace agreement, SCOTUS ruling on Trump’s executive power
A woman lights a cigarette placed in a placard depicting Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, during a demonstration, after the Hungarian parliament passed a law that bans LGBTQ+ communities from holding the annual Pride march and allows a broader constraint on freedom of assembly, in Budapest, Hungary, on March 25, 2025.
Pride and Politics: the drama in Budapest
Hungary’s capital will proceed with Saturday’s Pride parade celebrating the LGBTQ+ community, despite the rightwing national government’s recent ban on the event. The culture war between the city and “illiberal” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reflects wider urban/rural splits in Hungary. The European Union has urged Orbán to lift the ban and is probing the legality of Hungarian police using facial recognition to identify attendees. Many countries have expressed support for the parade, but the Trump administration, sharing Orbán’s misgivings about LGBTQ+ culture, is not among them.
Rwanda and DRC to sign Trump-brokered peace deal
Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo will sign a peace deal in Washington today, hoping to end a conflict that has killed thousands and displaced millions. The war in a nutshell: Rwanda has backed rebel groups that have seized large swaths of territory in the mineral-rich DRC. The Trump administration, which wants a Nobel peace prize for its efforts, brokered the agreement in part to gain access to DRC critical minerals, but critics say the economic terms are still vague.
US Supreme Court hands Trump a win versus the judiciary
The US top court on Friday limited federal judges’ ability to issue nationwide injunctions against executive orders, but did not rule directly on the constitutionality of President Donald Trump’s order to limit birthright citizenship. The 6-3 decision, which halts Trump’s citizenship order for 30 days while other legal challenges play out, was split along ideological lines – the liberal minority dissented. The ruling could affect the roughly 255,000 children born annually in the United States to parents who are neither citizens nor permanent residents, per a Penn State estimate. But it also expands executive power vis-a-vis the courts more broadly. For more on this, watch Ian Bremmer’s recent interview with Yale Law School senior fellow Emily Bazelon.American President Donald Trump's X Page is seen displayed on a smartphone with a Tiktok logo in the background
In August 1991, a handful of high-ranking Soviet officials launched a military coup to halt what they believed (correctly) was the steady disintegration of the Soviet Union. Their first step was to seize control of the flow of information across the USSR by ordering state television to begin broadcasting a Bolshoi Theatre production ofSwan Lake on a continuous loop until further notice. (Click that link for some prehistoric GZERO coverage of that event.)
Even in the decade that followed the Cold War’s end, citizens of both authoritarian states and democracies had far fewer sources of reliable information than today about what was happening in their communities, across their countries and around the world.
Earlier this month, the Reuters Institute published its 14th annualDigital News Report, which Reuters claims is the “most comprehensive study of news consumption worldwide.” Its findings detail just how fundamentally different today’s media landscape has become. Here are some key takeaways that help us understand how and where people get their information and ideas about what’s happening today:
- “News use across online platforms continues to fragment.”
- “Engagement with traditional media sources such as TV, print, and news websites continues to fall, while dependence on social media, video platforms, and online aggregators grows. This is particularly the case in the United States.”
- “The proportion accessing news via social media and video networks in the United States (54%) is sharply up – overtaking both TV news (50%) and news websites/apps (48%) for the first time.”
- “Around a third of our global sample use Facebook (36%) and YouTube (30%) for news each week. Instagram (19%) and WhatsApp (19%) are used by around a fifth, while TikTok (16%) remains ahead of X at 12%.”
- Personalities and influencers are, in some countries, playing a significant role in shaping public debates.
- There’s no reason to expect these trends won’t continue indefinitely.
There’s much more in the Reuters report, but today let’s focus on a few political implications of the points above.
In the years since social media and online influencers began shaping our perception of reality, we’ve seen strong anti-establishment political trends. Think Brexit, the election of charismatic political outsiders (like Donald Trump), and a move away from long-entrenched political establishments in dozens of countries.
Social media algorithms create “filter bubbles” as algorithms feed us steady supplies of what they’ve learned we like at the expense of new information and ideas that make us question what we believe. That trend helps explain the worsening polarization we see in the United States and many European countries.
That problem is compounded by the increasing prevalence in social media feeds of AI bots, which can generate heavy volumes of false information, distorting our sense of reality every day and in real time.
All these trends will make politics, particularly in democracies, much less predictable over time as elections swing outcomes between competing ideologies.
As a source of news and insight, social media has brought billions of people directly into the political lives of their countries in ways unimaginable a generation ago. They’ll continue to play a positive role in helping news consumers and voters learn more and share their views. But the unreliability of so many social media information sources — and the political volatility it increasingly generates — create problems that will only become more complex as technologies change.
And this problem is intensifying at a time when more of the big threats facing governments extend across borders — the eruption of more regional wars, climate change fallout, management of refugee flows, and governance of artificial intelligence. Big ideological swings following elections will make long-term multinational cooperation much more complicated.
Tell us what you think. How should our elected leaders, media sources, and all of us news consumers respond to these challenges? Let us know here.
What We’re Watching: Separatists go bust, Canada goes social, US readies tax retaliation
Alberta sovereigntists and supporters gather outside the Alberta Legislature on May 3, 2025.
Alberta separatists underwhelm in local election
Alberta’s separatist movement came up short in a bellwether by-election in rural Calgary on Monday, winning a disappointing 19% of the vote in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. Cameron Davies, leader of the separatist Alberta Republican Party, came in third, behind the governing United Conservative Party and the left-leaning New Democratic Party. Although a referendum on separatism is still in the cards, the weak showing in what was thought to be prime separatist territory suggests the movement may have little steam after all.
Canada to get its own private social network
A handful of nationalistic Canadian tech leaders provoked by Donald Trump’s threats are launching a Canadian social media platform operated independently of the American cloud. Known as Gander, it will run on Canadian servers, in line with Canadian privacy and moderation rules — meaning tighter policing of posts considered hate speech. In a unique feature, users will have the option of posting on a globally visible network or a Canada-only one. Can an upstart like this really challenge US and Chinese social media giants? We’re keen to have a … Gander.
Republicans could strip tax retaliation clause from “Big Beautiful Bill”
The Trump administration’s massive budget bill currently gives the White House the power to retaliate against other countries that impose taxes the US considers unfair. Key targets are minimum corporate tax rates and digital services taxes (like Canada’s). Top Republican officials say they will remove the clause if the EU and other countries drop or renegotiate the offending taxes. But that would need to happen by this weekend, since Donald Trump wants to sign the bill into law ahead of next week’s July Fourth holiday.