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Linda McMahon testifies before the Senate Health, Education, and Labor Committee during a nomination hearing as Secretary of Education in Washington, DC, USA, on Feb. 13, 2025.
McMahon said that she would present a plan for downsizing the department that Republican senators would be able to get on board with. She said that while there were areas of the DOE that could be eliminated, states would still receive federal funding for schools. Project 2025 has laid out a plan for moving the core responsibilities of the DOE – like civil rights enforcement, student loans, and research – to other federal agencies in order to dismantle the department without fully eliminating it, a step that would require congressional approval.
Conservatives have sought to get rid of the DOE since it was created in 1979, arguing that educational decisions should be made by the states alone. The department doesn’t control curriculums or teachers, but it does provide outsized financial support for low-income areas and helps cover the higher costs of educating students with greater needs.
Meanwhile, the Senate officially confirmed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary in a largely party-line vote on Thursday. All Democrats opposed his nomination, while all Republicans supported it, except for Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell. McConnell, who survived polio as a child, broke with his party due to Kennedy’s anti-vaccine stance.A volunteer florist adds baby's breath flowers to a Valentine’s Day rose bouquet on Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025.
400 million: The US State Department’s procurement forecast for 2025, which details purchases the agency expects to make, includes $400 million for armored Tesla vehicles. Tesla is owned by someone called Elon Musk.
94.5: Despite President Xi Jinping’s pledge that China’s carbon emissions would peak by 2030, the country’s coal plant construction climbed by 94.5 gigawatts in 2024, its highest level since 2015.
457: Liberian President Joseph Boakai has suspended 457 top government officials, including ministers, for failing to declare their assets to the country’s anti-corruption agency. The workers will be out for a month, unpaid, or until they provide the required declarations.
4,000: In Colombia, a bill aims to prohibit sales of merchandise glorifying Pablo Escobar, the notorious drug lord who has been linked to more than 4,000 murders. Vendors are not happy with the proposed law, insisting that Escobar merch sells well and helps support their families.
59-10: An exclusive GZERO and Echelon poll found deep partisan divides over DOGE’s plans to shrink the US government. The poll found that 59% of Republicans believed cutting 300,000 federal jobs would increase government efficiency, compared to just 10% of Democrats. When it came to its efforts to dismantle USAID, 60% of Republicans support completely overhauling or eliminating the agency, compared to only 12% of Democrats.U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hold a joint press conference in the East Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., February 4, 2025.
Recent US intelligence reports indicate Israel is considering strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025. The assessment, produced during the waning days of the Biden administration, suggests Israel sees an opportunity to act in the face of Iran’s weakened military capabilities, loss of regional allies, and economic challenges.
If a strike is carried out, Eurasia Group expert Greg Brew says Iran’s nuclear program would likely be “damaged but not destroyed” and that any such move would need US involvement to “eliminate the risk that Iran dashes to a bomb immediately after.”
Any meaningful strike would require extensive US involvement – from providing munitions and possibly aircraft to offering defensive support against Iranian retaliation. A truly successful operation would have to target fortified facilities like Natanz and Fordow, which are both deeply entrenched underground, and only US military capabilities can effectively reach them.
That means it’s Trump’s call. Although the US president has reimposed his “maximum pressure” policy against Iran, Brew says, “Trump has made it clear that he’s more interested in talking, not bombing — at least initially.”
But, Brew adds, “It’s possible the timely leak of these intel reports is part of a US strategy, presenting Iran with two options: Make a deal, or Israel will bomb you.”
Third attack by migrant in three months heightens tensions ahead of German election
Police takes pictures of a car after some 28 people were hurt when a car driven by an Afghan asylum seeker plowed into a crowd in Munich, Germany, February 13, 2025.
A 24-year-old Afghan man plowed a white Mini Cooper into a crowd in Munich on Thursday, injuring at least 28 people in the third attack by a migrant in Germany in three months.
The incident comes just 10 days before nationwide elections in which the German far right is on track for its biggest victory since World War II, with polls showing the anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland party, or AfD, cruising to a strong second-place finish behind Friedrich Merz’s conservative coalition.
Bavarian Premier Markus Söder — from the sister party in Merz’s center-right alliance — described Thursday’s incident as a likely “terrorist attack.”
In January, a 28-year-old Afghan man wielding a knife attacked a group of preschool children in a park in the southern city of Aschaffenburg, killing two, including a 2-year-old boy. In December, a 50-year-old Saudi Arabian national rammed a BMW into a crowded holiday market in the eastern city of Magdeburg, killing six and injuring 300.
Thursday’s assault came the same day another Afghan migrant in his 20s with suspected jihadist motives went on trial for allegedly killing a police officer and wounding five others in a stabbing rampage at an anti-Islam rally in the western city of Mannheim last May.
Despite ruling out any alliance with the AfD, Merz’s coalition and the far-right party voted together to nearly pass legislation last month calling on Germany to turn back far more migrants at its border. The AfD, meanwhile, has pledged to fight for mass deportations under a policy Europe’s anti-immigrant parties are calling “remigration.”
“The safety of the people in Germany will be our top priority. We will consistently enforce law and order,” Merz wrote in a post on X in response to the attack. “Everyone must feel safe in our country again. Something must change in Germany.”
Donald Trump has an empire state of mind.
From his threats to make Canada the 51st state, buy Greenland, reclaim the Panama Canal, and, almost implausibly, “take” the Gaza Strip, Trump isn’t hiding his imperial ambitions. In his inaugural address, he explicitly said he sees an America that “expands its territory.” Is he serious about this, and, if so, what does it mean for its closest neighbor and biggest partner, Canada?
Let’s start with the first question: Is territorial expansion a real threat or just rhetoric he is using to shake down opponents in trade negotiations? It’s both. Trump is using these threats to gain better access to markets for American goods, and he’s flexing his imperial desires.
No moment better illustrated Trump’s empire state of mind than on Tuesday, when he met King Abdullah II of Jordan at the White House. With Trump’s radical promise to take Gaza and “clean out that whole thing ” — choice words not lost on anyone remotely familiar with the worst crimes under international law — the meeting was expected to be about as uncomfortable for the royal as a crown of porcupine quills. But it got even more interesting than expected.
The president was asked how he would buy Gaza, as he had initially proposed. “We’re not going to have to buy,” he said. “We’re going to have Gaza. We don’t have to buy. There’s nothing to buy. We will have Gaza.”
We will have Gaza.
Pause there for a moment because that was a foundational shift in US policy. The president of the United States declared he could unilaterally pluck up pieces of land the US has no legitimate claim over in blatant violation of international law. Because the statement was so shocking, Trump was immediately asked to clarify. You won’t even buy it?
TRUMP: No reason to buy. There is nothing to buy. It’s Gaza. It’s a war-torn area. We’re going to take it. We’re going to hold it. We’re going to cherish it.
We are going to “take” it.
The next moment was the one that Canadians, Greenlanders, and Panamanians took to heart.
The king was visibly uncomfortable with what he and every Arab leader have said is a totally unacceptable idea, so he tried to deflect a confrontation, saying the Arab leaders would propose a solution, but then Trump doubled down.
“Mr. President,” a journalist asked, “take it under what authority? It is sovereign territory.”
“Under the US authority,” the president answered, as if that was enough.
This is exactly the law of the jungle we described in Eurasia Group’s 2025 Top Risks Report, where international laws and norms — the same laws and norms the US built and underpinned after World War II — are no longer enforced. Under this rule, strong countries — the United States, China, and Russia — divvy up the world into their own imperial spheres of influence. In a cogent piece this week in the Financial Times, Gideon Rachmancalled this the age of neo-imperialism, a world “based around spheres of influence — with the US concentrating on the Western Hemisphere, Russia on Eastern Europe, and China on East Asia.”
It is exactly right. This week, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a long phone call during which – without input from Ukraine – they appeared to unilaterally decide the terms on which the war, which Russia started, would end. On favorable terms for Russia. How do we know? Because US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the same day while he was in Europe that Ukraine joining NATO is now off the table and that US support for Ukraine and European defense is a low priority. Putin must be popping vodka bottle tops. His war aims have been largely vindicated.
More importantly, it shores up Rachman’s thesis that Trump is reverting to the imperial spheres of influence model, where great powers gobble up land in their orbits and let other great powers, like Russia and China, do it in theirs. The empire state of mind in action.
How should Canada read this?
On his way to the Super Bowl, Trump was asked by Fox News’ Bret Baier whether taking over Canada is a real goal. “Yes it is,” Trump responded before sharing his rationale that Canada, in his view, is a leech on the American economy and military and that he believes it should be the 51st state. So, yes, he is serious about it.
Again, not to be a scold, but facts should matter here. On that day, Trump’s rationale for taking over Canada was a “$200 billion” deficit. That is wrong. According to Stats Canada, in 2023, the trade deficit was $94 billion, which includes the cheap energy Canada supplies. But to the empire state of mind, facts don’t matter. Neither does the rationale. Today, it could be about trade deficits, fentanyl, and illegal immigration, and tomorrow, it could be about banking or cars. The goalposts will shift. All that matters is what the US wants to “take.” The rest is pretext and commentary.
So how could Trump take Canada by “economic force”? Again, the president is not hiding his plan.
Step one: Weaken the Canadian economy with devastating tariffs.
The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum will be punishing for Ontario and Quebec but not existential. That is just a start. Layer another 25% tariff on all Canadian goods crossing the border, and there will be a meltdown.
“If we stop allowing them to make cars — through tariffs and other things: cars, trucks, etc., what they make — they’re not viable as a country,” Trump told Baier in a chilling moment.
Step two: Sow divisions in Canada. By excluding energy from his threats — or by putting much lower tariffs on energy than on other goods – Trump heats up East-West tensions in Canada that have long been on a medium boil.
It also has the benefit of self-interest. The US needs Alberta energy for its Midwest refineries. Otherwise, voters there will see a price jump at the pumps. So, Trump cuts Alberta a break. The rest of Canada, meanwhile, will want to retaliate against his tariffs, and energy is a powerful weapon in the arsenal. The Alberta premier has said that is a no-go. Other leaders are not ruling it out. If – no, when – the tariffs come, the external threat of Trump will be strengthened by the internal disputes within Canada.
Step 3: Spread disinformation. Separatism has always been an issue between English-speaking provinces and French-speaking Quebec. The separatist PQ party has been steadily on the rise in Quebec, with the promise of a referendum in the near future. Fomenting that movement with more disinformation is not out of the question for a president who wants to swallow up Canada and take its minerals, water, and access to the Arctic.
These could add up to the “winning conditions” Trump needs. Does he start with an offer to let part of Canada split off and join the union? Maybe. Suddenly, Canada is in fragments and ready to be swallowed up, bite by bite.
Of course, this is all dark speculation. Annexing Canada is not just a matter of political barking any more than it was in the War of 1812, when taking Canada was supposed to be a mere matter of marching. It wasn’t then, and it won’t be today.
Former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper was roundly celebrated by leaders of all parties when he said, “I would be prepared to impoverish the country and not be annexed, if that was the option we’re facing.” Trump’s threats have led to a dramatic spike in Canadian patriotism. Canada is gearing up for a fight it doesn’t want or need. The US is picking a fight to win a prize it already has: free and fair trade with its best friend.
The empire state of mind, however, doesn’t allow for the logic of mutual benefit. It is a radical shift in global politics and a warning to countries that once called themselves allies, neighbors, and friends.
President Donald Trump meets with Jordan's King Abdullah in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, on Feb. 11, 2025.
While meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah II at the White House on Tuesday, Trump reiterated his intention to “take” Gaza, displace its two million residents to nearby countries, and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”
Middle Eastern states are set to meet in Saudi Arabia to come up with their own plan, which they will present to Trump, but Abdullah was cautious and noncommittal while in the Oval. Later, in a social media post, the king said that during his meeting with Trump he “reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank” and called this “the unified Arab position.”
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, meanwhile, said this week that he will not visit Washington for talks on the Middle East while Trump’s Gaza displacement plan is on the agenda.
But Trump has threatened to cut off crucial US aid to Egypt and Jordan unless they comply. Cairo and Amman each receive about $1.5 billion annually in military and other aid from Washington.
Tulsi Gabbard hugs President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 12, 2025.
On Thursday, the Senate voted to confirmRobert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services Secretary. The vote also went along party lines, 52-48, with McConnell also voting with Democrats against Kennedy.
RFK Jr., like Gabbard, has set off alarm bells. Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group, says Kennedy’s Make America Healthy Again movement is “set to shake up health policy” in the US. MAHA, says Bremmer, is “a worldview that blends concerns about corporate influence on healthcare with skepticism towards mainstream medicine.” It’s also made up, notes Bremmer, of wellness culture, vaccine hesitancy, alternative medicine, and deep state conspiracy – and it crosses ideological divides. It is, in a word, messy, and will almost certainly do what its proponents promise: upset the status quo on health policy in the US.