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Demonstrators carry the dead body of a man killed during a protest a day after a general election marred by violent demonstrations over the exclusion of two leading opposition candidates at the Namanga One-Post Border crossing point between Kenya and Tanzania, as seen from Namanga, Kenya October 30, 2025.
That last move echoes a troubling trend of governments across Africa cutting internet access during moments of political uncertainty. Between 2016 and 2023, human rights groups claim African governments have shut down the internet 59 times during protests, 25 times during elections, 11 times during conflict and six times during military coups. In 2024, digital-rights monitors counted a record 21 shutdowns across 15 African countries, an all-time high, suggesting “digital darkness” is becoming a routine means of maintaining power.
How do shutdowns happen? Regulators order telecom companies to either pull the plug on internet access entirely, to throttle bandwidth to make services unusable, or to block specific platforms like X, WhatsApp, or TikTok. Officials generally justify the moves as necessary to curb “misinformation” or “incitement,” but the real goal is generally to limit opponents’ ability to mobilize supporters, share information, and alert the press to what is happening.
Why was there a shutdown in Tanzania? It’s a go-to move for the government there. Authorities first shut down the web during the 2020 election, blocking access to specific social media platforms. In August 2024, X was blocked and Tanzanian leadership ordered police to clamp down on youth organizing over Zoom; in October 2025 they cut access to Tik Tok Live and Instagram Live. Crackdowns have frequently coincided with the detention of opposition leaders.
Where else is this happening in Africa? Research has shown that the longer a leader is in power, the more likely they are to deploy digital repression. Africa has some of the longest-serving leaders on the planet, but also the youngest electorates, making for an increasingly volatile combination.
Internet access was curtailed this year in Congo, led by 79-year old President Denis Sassou Nguesso for 40 years, as the country grappled with a deepening civil war. Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni – who is seeking to extend his 40 year term in next year’s elections – shut down the country’s entire internet during the 2021 election and has kept Facebook blocked ever since. Cameroonian president Paul Biya was just reelected for an eighth term, serving since 1982, and famously cut off internet service for 230 days in 2017, and multiple shorter times thereafter, including during the recent vote.
Conflict also serves as a pretext. The government of Ethiopia shut down internet and phone services in the province of Tigray for more than two years during its brutal civil war with separatist forces there. That effectively cut some 6 million people off from each other and from the outside world.
Do shutdowns work? While shutdowns can dampen protests for hours or days, they sometimes backfire long-term by galvanizing the opposition. Africa’s surge in shutdowns has been met by backlash from groups like the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights and the #KeepItOn coalition, who shine a light on abuses.
How are people coping? Youth networks, opposition parties, and journalists are adapting in a variety of ways. Activists pre-plan offline “low-tech” communications, such as community radio; newsrooms prepare mirrored sites and satellite uplinks; election observers switch to analog reporting. Some users get around the blocks with Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) and mesh networks, while others “sideload” apps on Android devices from unofficial app stores.
In Tanzania, local outlets and digital-rights groups also flagged restrictions in real time, and international coalitions have been pressing the government – so far unsuccessfully – to restore service. But with digital connectivity the new currency of politics, it’s hard to see long-time African rulers giving up control just yet.
What We’re Watching: King’s brother loses royal title, Japan-China tensions surround leaders’ summit, Deadly Rio raid becomes national political issue
Prince Andrew – now Andrew Mountbatten Windsor – leaves Buckingham Palace on the day of King Charles' coronation ceremony, in London, United Kingdom, on May 6, 2023.
Epstein scandal takes down the king’s brother
Prince Andrew is now just Andrew Mountbatten Windsor, after Buckingham Palace stripped King Charles III’s younger brother of his royal titles on Thursday night. The move was caused by Andrew’s relationship with child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and the ex-prince’s alleged relations with the late Virginia Giuffre when she was a teenager. He will also have to leave his royal home in Windsor. Andrew’s public demise began in 2019, when he had a disastrous interview with the BBC – the interview even became a subject of a film. Despite losing his title, Andrew remains eighth in line to the throne. The Epstein scandal has forced major exits in the UK, but not in the US – could that change?
Cordial Xi-Takaichi meeting masks simmering Japan-China tensions
Is Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi the Viktor Orban of the Pacific? While Takaichi said she “spoke frankly” to Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday about Beijing’s rare-earth export curbs, aggression in the East China Sea, and human-rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, the two leaders also agreed to pursue “constructive and stable ties.” Like her ultra-conservative Hungarian counterpart, Takaichi appears to be building a close relationship with US President Donald Trump while engaging with Beijing – no small feat as tensions heat up in the Indo-Pacific.
Deadly Rio raid becomes national political issue in Brazil
Many of the bodies are still being identified, but the staggering death toll of this week’s raid by police on drug traffickers in a Rio de Janeiro favela has already become hotly politicized. The move against the powerful Comanda Vermelha gang was the deadliest in Brazil’s history: 160 people are dead, including four police officers. Politicians on the right praised the operation, while those on the left – including President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – have denounced traffickers but questioned the effectiveness of violent crackdowns. The issue will surely shape next year’s presidential election, with crime a top concern for voters. Lula recently announced that he will seek a fourth and final term.
Hard Numbers: Trump administration lowers refugee limit, 6,7 enshrined in the dictionary, Jamaica’s preparedness paid off in Hurricane Melissa
Illegal immigrants from Ethiopia walk on a road near the town of Taojourah February 23, 2015. The area, described by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) as one of the most inhospitable areas in the world, is on a transit route for thousands of immigrants every year from Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia travelling via Yemen to Saudi Arabia in hope of work. Picture taken February 23.
7,500: The Trump administration will cap the number of refugees that the US will admit over the next year to 7,500. The previous limit, set by former President Joe Biden, was 125,000. The new cap is a record low. White South Africans will have priority access.
6,7: Nobody knows what it means, but every kid says it and every parent can’t stand it. Now it’s Dictionary.com’s “word” of the year.
820 million: Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica’s farms, homes, and infrastructure — but the country’s robust disaster preparedness saved lives and limited chaos. While the rebuilding will take time, the government prepared for the disaster for years within a multilayered financial safety net that swiftly unlocked $820 million in emergency funds, insurance, and loans to aid recovery.
A woman carries water out of her home, after floods caused by the outer bands of Hurricane Melissa killed several people, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, October 29, 2025.
23: Twenty-three people have died in Haiti after Hurricane Melissa passed near the island, adding more anguish to a country that has been in crisis for most of the past decade and without a president since Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in 2021. The hurricane is now headed toward Bermuda.
430,000: The UN reports that sectarian violence in post-Assad Syria has already displaced 430,000 people. Syria’s 14-year long civil war had pushed more than half the country’s 22 million people from their homes. The end of that conflict with the ouster of Assad last December had raised hopes for an end to the displacements.
41%: US coffee roasters’ stockpiles are running low as they wait for a new US-Brazil trade deal. Since US President Donald Trump put 50% tariffs on Brazil, coffee prices in the US have gone up by 41% from a year ago, to an average of $9.14 a pound. Brazil alone accounts for a third of American coffee consumption.
5: French authorities arrested five more Louvre heist suspects outside Paris on Wednesday. However, the stolen jewels, valued at more than $100 million, have yet to be recovered.What We’re Watching: Canada’s government on the brink again, Far-right setback in the Netherlands, Iran’s capital city on the move?
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, October 22, 2025.
Canada’s government could collapse next week
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s credibility took a serious hit after Ontario’s anti-tariff ad soured relations with US President Donald Trump and shut down trade talks. Elected in April on a promise to deliver a deal with Washington, Carney now faces a confidence vote on his first budget next Tuesday: if his minority government can’t get the votes to pass it, Canadians could be going to the polls again – that would make twice in one year.
Far right takes a hit in Dutch election
The center left D66 party and the far-right Freedom Party of anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders tied atop the Dutch elections, each winning 26 seats. The result was a triumph for D66, which picked up 17 seats. PVV, meanwhile, dropped 11. Wilders won the 2023 election, but two years of chaotic, unstable government followed. Because D66 edged out PVV in the vote tally, it has first crack at forming a government. Its success or failure will help answer a key question: does the election result show the limits of the far-right’s appeal, or is it a temporary setback in Wilders’ otherwise steady rise?
Iran’s president wants to move the capital
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian wants to move the capital from bustling Tehran to a remote, sparsely populated province along the Gulf of Oman. Why? He says chronic water shortages can’t be solved and are hemming in the city’s growth. Experts say Iran lacks the money and infrastructure to make such a move right now, and that only a small fraction of people would relocate. Iran is currently suffering hyperinflation and a severe recession as the country's economy feels the pain of UN “snapback sanctions” that were implemented last month.US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping talk as they leave after a bilateral meeting at Gimhae International Airport, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025.
After months of escalating tensions, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a trade truce at their meeting in South Korea on Thursday.
What was agreed? The two sides each delayed imposing further tariffs, with Trump reducing the overall US tariff rate on China to 45%. China agreed to drop its rare earth export ban, while the US may allow China to purchase advanced semiconductors again. That’s not all: the two countries suspended port fees, China pledged to started buying American soybeans again, good news for American soy farmers who have lost market share to Brazil.
What didn’t the meeting resolve? There was no update on terms for the sale of TikTok to American buyers, and the two sides also didn’t discuss Chinese access to the most powerful US-made microchips. More broadly, Trump and Xi didn’t appear to come to any resolution on Washington’s longer-term issues, such as the US trade deficit with China, concerns about Chinese theft of US intellectual property, or the defense of Taiwan – which the US still supports against Beijing’s claims of sovereignty.
Nuclear tensions start to simmer. The US commander-in-chief announced on Thursday that he had ordered the Pentagon to start testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. The US hasn’t tested a nuke since 1992, and is party to a 1996 treaty with Moscow and Beijing that bars such actions. Testing is unlikely to start soon, in part because of safety concerns but also because most National Nuclear Security Administration are furloughed right now due to the government shutdown.
What about Ukraine? Trump said that Ukraine “came up very strongly” during the meeting with Xi, but did not elaborate, and gave no indication that the two men had discussed the impact of recent US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers. Chinese refineries – the largest buyers of Russian crude – have reportedly begun to explore alternative sources (read more here).
Scoring the showdown: who won?? “Nobody has the upper hand,” said Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China David Meale. “What both sides have instead is an understanding that each is capable of triggering the other’s intolerable pain points – and therefore a path must be struck between them.”
But, Meale added, “China must feel more satisfied than the US about where it is compared to the beginning of 2025,” in part because Beijing has stood up to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and identified a “potent leverage tool through rare earths export controls.”
Overall assessment of the meeting? Trump couldn’t have been more pleased, saying, “On a scale of 1 to 10, the meeting with Xi was 12.”
Meale was a little more equivocal.
“I would put it at a seven out of 10.”
Last week, I wrote about the political revolution that President Donald Trump has launched in the United States and how it has made America a fundamentally unreliable player on the world stage.
This week, I’ll take on another question I detailed during my recent “State of the World” speech in Tokyo: How can/should the rest of the world respond to this new reality?
***
When dealing with a leader of the world’s most powerful country who ignores counsel and acts on impulse, most governments will have to avoid actions that make Trump-unfriendly headlines. (Looking at you, Doug Ford.)
This is the logic that led Canada to surrender on its plan to impose a digital services tax earlier this year, and why a TV ad aired by the province of Ontario using clips of Ronald Reagan to criticize Trump’s tariffs was hastily taken down when the US president got angry. It’s why Japan was wise to make unilateral concessions on Nippon Steel and automotive tariffs. To safeguard their national interests, if a fight can be avoided, other governments should avoid it – by whatever means necessary. Let the spotlight of Trump administration hostility fall on others.
Many US allies have moved to proactively limit damage from any future fight with the White House. The United Kingdom, the European Union, and a number of Southeast Asian countries have offered non-reciprocal trade deals. See also Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Argentina, and El Salvador.
From governments that have much more bargaining leverage – like China, Russia, and India – we’ve seen that standing up for yourself and a willingness to absorb punches can create needed space. That strategy won’t work for everyone. Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Brazil and many others need to stay on a positive track with Washington.
But all countries, whatever their current relationship with the White House, will need to build their own long-term capacity and reinforce their own stability – to become more economically dynamic and competitive for the future.
That’s China’s current approach. Beijing has also doubled down on its support for existing international institutions, in part because it calculates that an American step-back will create new opportunities to change them.
In short, when faced with an America that’s become a more unreliable player on the global stage, one that can’t be counted on to safeguard allies who have underinvested in their own security, the right strategy is defense first, hedge second.
Just as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine persuaded Europeans to quickly reduce their own dependence on Russian energy, European governments want to avoid finding themselves at the mercy of shifting policies from Washington.
America’s traditional allies will have to regain their competitive position. That means a focus on growth, robust industrial policy, streamlined regulatory and bureaucratic authorities, and expansive investment in new technologies. They must attract and invest in entrepreneurship, assert more diplomatic leadership internationally, and accept responsibilities in building multilateral architecture.
Models already exist. In particular, there is Mario Draghi’s crucial competitiveness report for the European Union. On a smaller scale, there is Mark Carney’s thoughtfully crafted “Canada Strong” plan. Most every global leader should be thinking in these terms.
It’s easier said than done. The near-term politics of making these transformations is daunting. The EU is not a single state, and Europe's need for consensus rulemaking and pushback from more euro-skeptic governments (which could arrive even in France and Germany in the next election cycle) pose an enormous challenge.
There will be opposition from the fast-rising Reform Party in Britain and some provincial governments in Canada.
But once all these economic, political, security, and diplomatic investments are made, America’s unreliability, in the years well beyond Trump, will matter less.
As for hedging…
- Europe has committed to spend much more money on its own defense and to address the security coordination problems NATO will suffer without clear US leadership.
- The Saudis have signed a nuclear deal with Pakistan to hedge against any future security neglect from Washington, and there’s already more defense and intelligence-sharing among Gulf States.
- India’s Narendra Modi is working hard to stabilize his country’s relations with China and to temper their rivalry.
- The EU has finalized three free trade agreements — with South American bloc Mercosur, Mexico and Indonesia — and is working toward an agreement with India.
- Mercosur sealed a free trade deal with the European Free Trade Area, four European countries outside the EU. It has restarted negotiations with Canada.
In short, the defense and hedging strategies are well underway and likely to succeed to varying degrees in various places over time – though we should be more skeptical about even a medium-term turnaround in competitiveness.
We’re now living in a post-American order, with no one willing or able to fill the vacuum. China has its own problems and isn’t about to bite off more than it can chew. Which means a deeper G-Zero world, leading to more conflict, inflicting more damage, and lasting longer.
This trajectory isn’t sustainable. During the Cold War, it took the Cuban Missile Crisis to convince leaders that armed confrontation would be catastrophic – and that new communication channels and agreements were essential. We don't know what form “the crisis we need” to build a new order will take this time. But it's coming.
Until then? The old rules don’t apply anymore, and new rules haven’t been written yet. We must brace for sustained turbulence.