Bye-bye Biden. Will Dems choose Harris?

After resisting calls from within the Democratic Party for him to resign for weeks, President Joe Biden announced Sunday that he will not run for reelection in November. He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him.

What now? By dropping out, the delegates who pledged to vote for Biden can now vote for whomever they want, opening the door for the party to rally behind another candidate ahead of the Democratic National Convention. Alternatively, the party could conduct an open convention where prospective nominees vie for support from delegates at the DNC on Aug. 19.

Bill and Hillary Clinton have already come out in support of Harris, with more party heavyweights expected to endorse her in the coming days. Other potential candidates are unlikely to throw their hats in the ring to avoid creating chaos. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has already announced she is not seeking the nomination, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom endorsed Harris. “I think that they will wait, they’ll bide their time,” says GZERO and Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer. “They will support Harris, and they’ll wait themselves until 2028.”

But that doesn’t mean others won’t consider a bid. Late Sunday, there were reports that Sen. Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, may re-register as a Democrat in order to compete for the nomination.

Still, Harris is an obvious successor for more reasons than just being Biden’s VP. Importantly, the Biden-Harris campaign war chest – totaling $95.9 million at the end of June – can easily transfer to her. Campaign finance law would require those funds be transferred to the DNC or a Super PAC if anyone else becomes the nominee, making coordination far more difficult.

That being said, Ian says that Harris would “benefit from a process that doesn’t look like the political machine has just decided that they’re going to anoint her, that there’s not going to be a primary process … there needs to be some level of competition.”

Who is Kamala Harris? Harris is the first woman, first Black person, and first Asian American to ascend to the vice presidency. And she would be the first female US president if elected.

Harris began her political career as a prosecutor, district attorney, and state attorney general in California, and went on to be elected to the US Senate in 2016. Her law enforcement record has been both a gift and a curse to her political campaigns, giving opponents on both sides of the aisle fodder to point to when she was either too tough, or not tough enough, on crime.

As VP, Harris has struggled to define herself while being tasked with an issue portfolio that included voting rights and stemming illegal migration at the southern border.

How does she fare against Donald Trump? “That’s the big wild card in this election,” says Eurasia Group’s US director Jon Lieber. “Her favorability is basically where Joe Biden’s was – in the high 30s – which is a bad place to be if you’re going to get elected, but Donald Trump isn’t that popular himself.”

An Economist/YouGov survey found that 79% of Democrats would support Harris as the party’s nominee, and across recent polls, Harris trails Trump by two percentage points nationally, 46% to 48%.

Having been Biden’s VP, Harris will be attacked by the GOP for the administration’s handling of the border and the economy. “Trump does better on the top issues in this campaign, which are inflation, the economy, and immigration,” says Lieber.

That said, she has reenergized the Democratic Party, many of whose leaders seemed close to accepting defeat with Biden atop the ticket. Harris, at 59, also brings youth to a campaign that was previously between two octogenarians. Despite having a decades-long political career, most Americans don’t really know Harris, which gives her the opportunity to make a new impression in the 107 days left on the campaign trail.

“That’s an eternity in US politics,” says Ian. “It is longer than most elections in democracies” around the world.