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Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine, with his wife Olena Zelenskiy on the left, surrounded of Heads of State in the NATO Summit hosted in Vilnius, Lithuania.
The 2024 NATO Summit is set to begin on Tuesday in Washington, DC, and it comes at a historic but precarious moment for both the alliance and host nation. NATO is dealing with an ongoing war in Ukraine, preparing to welcome Mark Rutte as its new chief, and bracing for the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election.
As a result of the war in Ukraine, which pushed Finland and Sweden into NATO’s arms, the alliance is larger than ever, and tensions between the West and Russia have reached levels not seen since the Cold War. Sustaining support for Ukraine as the country creeps toward the three-year mark of Russia’s 2022 invasion will be a major issue on the agenda at the summit, as alliance members increasingly struggle to make the case for throwing more weapons and money at a conflict that has no end in sight. And while Kyiv’s ambitions of joining NATO will be discussed at the summit, the continued fighting between Ukraine and Russia means it’s not happening anytime soon.
Age will also be a particularly big theme at the summit: NATO turned 75 this year and the alliance will look to tout its longevity — it outlived the Soviet Union and has newfound relevance as the West looks to confront the ambitions of not just Moscow but also Beijing. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden will be looking to convince world leaders that — despite being older than the alliance at 81 — he’s still capable of leading the most powerful country on the planet.
Biden’s recent, disastrous performance in a presidential debate against former President Donald Trump has thrown his campaign into chaos, and calls are growing for Uncle Joe to step aside. The president, who remains defiant in the face of the push for him to call it quits, will be looking to put on a good show at the summit and prove the doubters wrong.
Along with Biden’s cognitive state, Trump will also be an elephant in the room at the summit. During his presidency, Trump’s sharp criticism of NATO allies and his isolationist “America First” foreign policy consistently made the alliance nervous. Trump also opposes further aid to Ukraine. There’s no doubt that the summit will foster numerous conversations on whether the alliance can “Trump-proof” itself in case he’s reelected.
The US has long been the most powerful, influential member of NATO, but its chaotic politics in recent years have led alliance members to question Washington’s reliability. Leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron have already openly stated that Europe can no longer count on the US for its security.
We’ll be watching to see whether Biden can convince NATO allies that the US remains a steadfast partner.