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The Israeli Parliament on Monday voted to ban the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, from operating in its territory — despite warnings from the Biden administration that doing so could impact US policy toward Israel. The Knesset even voted to designate UNRWA a terror group and to prohibit Israeli authorities from having contact with the agency.
UNRWA is the main humanitarian agency in Gaza, and this could impact millions of people who depend on it for aid. Critics of the legislation, which includes allies of the Jewish state, have expressed concern it will exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where the local health ministry now says over 43,000 Palestinians have died amid the war over the past year. Foreign ministers from Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the UK on Monday expressed “grave concern” over the Israeli move.
This comes roughly two weeks after Washington told Israel it had 30 days to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or risk cuts to military support from the US.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Millersaid Monday that the US urges Israel not to implement the legislation, underscoring that UNRWA is playing an “irreplaceable role right now in Gaza, where they’re on the front lines of getting humanitarian assistance to the people they need it.” Miller said there’s nothing that can replace UNRWA amid the current crisis.
Israel accuses UNRWA of involvement in the Oct. 7 attack, which killed roughly 1,200 in Israel and saw hundreds of hostages taken. A UN investigation that concluded in August said nine UNRWA employees may have been involved in the attack and all were fired. Several countries suspended funding to UNRWA over the allegations, but most have since restored funding, but not the US.
We’ll be watching to see how this legislation, which won’t take effect for 90 days, impacts the US-Israel relationship.
Meanwhile, across the border, Hezbollah has elected Naim Qassem to succeed Hassan Nasrallah as secretary general after Nasrallah was killed in September.
Qassem was already one of Israel's leading spokesmen, often conducting interviews with foreign media. Critics say he lacks his predecessor's gravitas, but the man considered most likely to succeed Nasrallah, Hashem Safieddine, was also killed in recent weeks as Israel ramps up its efforts to dismantle Hezbollah.
Iran is vowing to respond to Israel after it launched strikes over the weekend against Iranian military targets, including missile production facilities and air defense batteries. If this sounds familiar, it’s because Iran and Israel have been locked in an escalating feud over the past year that has raised fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East with the Jewish state already waging war against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Iranian government initially downplayed the impact of the Israeli attack, but Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday warned it will use “all available tools to deliver a definite and effective response.” This came after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday said that Israel’s attack should “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.” Meanwhile, Iranian Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday said that Iran would respond “appropriately” but isn’t looking for war.
Along these lines, Tehran appears to be weighing its options and isn’t in a rush to retaliate. It wants to avoid being entangled in a bigger conflict with Israel, which could potentially draw in the US, but also wants to continue to be perceived as a regional power player.
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group, said that with this attack “Israel has made it very clear to Iran that if they want to do this again, that Iran is not going to be able to defend itself effectively.”
“For now, it looks like Israel’s policies vis-a-vis Iran have played out successfully, in part because they are the strongest military game without question in town,” Bremmer adds. This could mean Iran chooses to move toward de-escalation.
We’ll be watching to see if Tehran offers more signs on how it might respond in the days ahead, as the Biden administration continues to push for a cease-fire in Gaza and a truce between Israel and Hezbollah in a last-ditch diplomatic sprint ahead of Election Day in the US.
The day after former Bolivian President Evo Morales claimed to have survived an attempt on his life on Sunday, Interior Minister Eduardo de Castillo accused Morales of staging an attempt on his own life. Morales, for his part, claims the government attempted to kill him amid a massive power struggle that has divided the ruling party.
What does each side claim? Morales said in a radio interview that a convoy carrying him through Chapare — a rural bastion of both Morales voters and coca production — was stopped by masked men with weapons who shot at his car and wounded his driver before the convoy fled.
De Castillo, on the other hand, said in a news conference that Morales’ car had failed to stop at a drug checkpoint and ran over a police officer while attempting to flee, leading to a chase and small arms fire.
What’s the beef? Morales is technically from the same Movement Toward Socialism party that currently holds power in La Paz, but he and his erstwhile protegé, President Luis Arce, are in a bitter feud. Both men want to stand for election as president next year, but Morales has been found ineligible by the constitutional court (not that this will stop him).
We’re watching for more clarity about what really went down, and whether Morales still commands the populist charm that kept him in office from 2006-2013.
Election Countdown: 4 things you need to know in the last week of US presidential race
The final week of the 2024 presidential campaign is upon us, with early voting in full swing, absentee ballots in the mail, and the polls too close to call. With seven days left before Election Day, here are the four things you need to know.
1. It’s going to come down to the seven swing states. The candidates need 270 electoral college votes to win, and some combination of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada are likely to be the states that deliver the Electoral College to the next president.
Many states lean toward one party or are at least gerrymandered to make it likely their votes go that way. If both candidates win the states where they are heavily favored, Harris would still need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win, and Trump would need 51. Pennsylvania is getting the most attention because, according to election analyst Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90% chance of winning the White House.
Because of this, the two candidates are concentrating their efforts on the swing states in the last week. Kamala Harris visited Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Monday, and her running mate Tim Walz held down the fort in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Donald Trump held a rally in Atlanta, Georgia.
Because of this, the two candidates are concentrating their efforts on the swing states in the last week. Kamala Harris visited Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Monday, and her running mate Tim Walz held down the fort in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Donald Trump held a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, and JD Vance also went to Wisconsin, where he defended racist comments made by speaker comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at the Madison Square Garden rally. Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.”
“We have to stop getting so offended at every little thing in the United States of America. I'm just — I'm so over it,“ said Vance.
2. It’s incredibly close. The New York Times reports that polls are getting even tighter in the final days of the campaign, with Harris ahead by just one point nationally. In the swing state polls, neither candidate has a lead that exceeds the margin of error.
3. Both candidates are making their closing arguments. Harris will deliver a speech at the Ellipse in Washington, DC, on Tuesday evening that is expected to draw nearly 20,000 people, rivaling the size of Trump’s rally in Madison Square Garden on Sunday.
In New York, in the last major event of the campaign trail, Trump and his allies’ speeches were full of anger at the political system and used rhetoric that railed against the state of the economy and immigrants – often in openly racist terms.
At the rally in DC, Harris will stand at the same place where on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump delivered remarks to his supporters who went on to storm the US Capitol. The location choice is no accident, as Harris is expected to make her last major speech about Trump posing a threat to democracy. Whether that will motivate voters to the polls is up for debate, as recent Gallup polling shows that the economy is the biggest issue for voters, followed by democracy, national security, and potential Supreme Court picks.
4. Expect results a lot sooner than in 2020, when the last election took nearly five days to decide because more than 43% of all ballots were mailed in due to the COVID pandemic.
Since then, many states have updated their policies to allow them to start counting absentee ballots before Election Night – including swing states like Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina – and fewer absentee ballots are expected overall. The fact that the election is likely to hinge on just a few states means that a result could be clear by the middle of the night or by early morning the next day.
The only hold-ups could come from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, especially if the election is very close because neither state allows for envelope processing to begin before Election Day.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is promising deep internal reforms to the Liberal Democratic Party after voters delivered what he called a “severe judgment” in Sunday’s elections, costing him the majority in the lower house of Parliament. The LDP has ruled since 1955 with only brief interruptions, but it lost 56 seats as voters expressed frustration with a funding scandal that has tarnished the party’s image with corruption and entitlement.
An unforced error? The PM only came to power on Oct. 1 in an internal party vote after his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, stepped down. Ishiba could have waited up to a year to call an election but wanted to win a mandate from voters quickly. A little patience might have paid off – and given him time to move away from the scandal and work on Japan’s sluggish economy.
What’s next? Ishiba has 30 days to form a coalition, and he will need to include an extra partner beyond traditional allies from the Komeito party. The most likely contender is the Democratic Party for the People, a fellow center-right party that saw its seat count rise from 7 to 28, but its leader is playing hardball. Yuichiro Tamaki says he would prefer to work with the LDP on an issue-by-issue basis — which would mean catering to his needs on every vote.
Will the US-Japan alliance suffer? Not likely. The alliance is a point of broad consensus in Tokyo, but plans to amp up Japanese defense may need to take a backseat.Trump rallies in NYC, Harris hits Philly in star-powered final push
With the US election just eight days away, it’s crunch time for the presidential campaigns. Republican candidate Donald Trump headlined a rally Sunday night at Madison Square Garden in New York, a state that last backed a Republican in 1984. While the former president knows he's unlikely to win the Empire State outright, his event could boost local GOP candidates. Trump was accompanied by familiar allies like Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Rudy Giuliani.
The speeches all communicated a similar message: Trump’s support is underestimated, his followers are oppressed, and the system is rigged. “No fair system would elevate someone like Kamala Harris to a presidential nomination,” said Carlson.
But racial insults and a distasteful comment about Puerto Rico at the event from pro-Trump comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, host of the “Kill Tony” podcast, have led to a backlash, even from fellow Republicans.
Still, there was no shortage of support on the streets outside the arena, with lines stretching across multiple avenues and some supporters even camping overnight to get a good seat. “I’m here because of the high interest rates and securing the border,” Tom Miller, of Pennsylvania, told GZERO's Riley Callanan. “New York is going down the tube. There are lines down the block in Times Square of migrants that get to live in hotels for free,” complained Jay Murphy, 56, while Carol Harper, 43, of Fire Island, cautioned that “There’s already voter fraud happening in Pennsylvania.”
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris was in The Keystone State, visiting a barbershop and a Puerto Rican restaurant in Philadelphia. Harris focused on mobilizing Black voters at Philadelphia’s Church of Christian Compassion, warning that if voters pick Trump, they’ll get a president “full of grievance … retribution and revenge.” On the same theme, Harris will be in Washington, DC, on Tuesday to deliver what her campaign calls her “closing argument,” speaking from the Ellipse, the grassy space adjacent to the National Mall where then-president Trump exhorted his supporters to march on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
The stars are shining bright – but will they matter? Trump’s Sunday night event was set to feature Elon Musk, conservative pundit Tucker Carlson, Hulk Hogan, and RFK Jr. As for Harris, after a week featuring appearances by both former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama, as well as singer Beyoncé, the vice president plans to visit North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on Wednesday with musical performances featuring Mumford & Sons. Trump will also make a stop in Wisconsin before heading to speak on Friday at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, the site of this year’s Republican National Convention.
Contributed reporting from Riley Callanan.
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito lost their parliamentary majority on Sunday in an election dominated by economic and ethical issues.
“The LDP got thumped,” said David Boling, Eurasia Group's Japan director, noting that a recent political fundraising corruption scandal was its downfall. “It tried to sweep the political fundraising scandal under the rug, but the voters weren’t having it.”
The LDP now holds 191 seats in the 465-seat lower house, its worst performance since 2009. Komeito holds 24, while the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, has 148, and two smaller parties, the Democratic Party for the People and Japan Innovation Party won 28 and 38 seats respectively – making them possible partners in the new government.
Foreign policy feud? Komeito has resisted the LDP’s push to abandon Japan’s post-World War II pacifism, opposing moves to double military spending, acquire longer-range weapons, and lift restrictions on military exports. In contrast, the JIP is led by Donald Trump-admirer Nobuyuki Baba and favors increased defense spending and revising Japan’s constitution to boost military engagement.