Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
What We're Watching
The Liberian-flagged tanker Ice Energy, chartered by the US government, takes Iranian oil from Iranian-flagged Lana (formerly Pegas) as part of a civil forfeiture action off the shore of Karystos, on the Island of Evia, Greece, in May 2022.
The potential impact? Washington previously ordered two such operations in 2023, under the Biden administration, but this prompted Iran to seize foreign ships, including one chartered by Chevron Corp, which increased crude prices. Today, however, prices are under $75 a barrel, so trimming Iran’s exports, possibly by 750,000 barrels per day, would have less of an effect. Cutting Iranian production would allow for increased production from Iraq, and potentially from Russia, which also sells to the Chinese market. Iran reaps annual oil revenues of $50 billion, mostly from sales to China.
Why do it, and will it work? Trump sees the plan as a means of exerting “maximum pressure” against Tehran to damage its nuclear program. The strategy depends, however, on allied nations chipping in to inspect the vessels. There are currently 115 signatories to the Initiative, most of whom are also facing the specter of US tariffs on April 2. We’ll be watching which ones the US approaches for cooperation – and whether Trump will be willing to give concessions in return.
UK leaders meet to discuss European security
EU leaders met in Brussels on Thursday to answer two big questions: How can Europe defend Ukraine in the short term and defend itself in the long term?
“We are very thankful that we are not alone,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was celebrated at the summit just a week after his disastrous visit to the White House.
The context? Trump. He has cut support for Ukraine to force the country into possible peace talks with Russia, browbeaten the EU over free speech, and threatened it with tariffs while raising doubts about the US commitment to European defense.
To muscle up, the EU must “spend, spend, spend,” said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed an $860 billion “ReArm Europe” plan, including new loan facilities of about $160 billion.
But finding that money won’t be easy, particularly after years of debt-fueled pandemic stimulus. The bloc is considering loosening strict limits on debt levels so that member states can borrow money for defense spending.
What’s more, tariff jitters are adding to concerns about Europe’s sluggish economies. On Thursday, the ECB cut rates for the sixth time in nine months in a bid to boost growth.
And the bloc faces a familiar problem: spoilers. The 27 member states all support more robust military spending, but Hungary, the bloc’s most Russia-friendly member, opted out of the summit statement supporting Ukraine.
What’s next: Another EU summit in about 10 days.
Trump makes a speech from the Oval Office.
The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported on Thursday that US employer layoffs surged by 245% last month — the largest spike since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In February alone, 172,017 jobs were cut, with over a third stemming from the Department of Government Efficiency, which slashed 62,242 positions across 17 agencies.
However, whether all these firings will be permanent remains uncertain. While DOGE continues its job cuts, many agencies have begun reversing course, reinstating employees — sometimes just days after their dismissal. On Tuesday, the Office of Personnel Management revised its previous directive, which had instructed agencies to terminate probationary employees (those with less than two years in their roles). The update clarified that individual agencies would have the final say on personnel decisions. Meanwhile, independent review boards, judges, and lawmakers from districts with large government workforces are challenging the layoffs. It is unclear how many more employees might ultimately be reinstated.
Regardless, the first two months of the year saw a total of 221,812 job cuts — the highest since the 2009 financial crisis. The report comes amid growing concerns about the labor market and broader economy, as Trump pushes forward with plans for tariffs, government downsizing, and stricter immigration policies.
Donald Trump issues a proclamation from the Oval Office
“Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you,” the US president wrote as part of what he called a “last warning.” The language of his post was direct, even by Trump standards: “I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say,” he wrote. “Also, to the People of Gaza: A beautiful Future awaits, but not if you hold Hostages. If you do, you are DEAD!”
Hamas hasaccused Trump of encouraging Israel to end the ceasefire and resume the war. The Israeli government says there are 59 hostages remaining in Gaza, and as many as two dozen are believed to be alive. Israel has released hundreds of Palestinians from its custody.
The terse, unsigned ruling was issued by Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett together with the court’s three liberal justices. It upholds an earlier order by US District Judge Amir Ali, now tasked with craftingcompliance requirements for paying the money. Justice Samuel Alito, writing for the dissenting justices,said he was “stunned” by the decision, arguing that it rewarded “judicial hubris” and imposed a significant financial burden on taxpayers.
What was the lawsuit about? The dispute arose from US President Donald Trump's Jan. 20 executive order imposing a 90-day freeze on all foreign aid to ensure “alignment” with his foreign policy objectives. The orderprompted aid organizations to sue, alleging that the freeze exceeded presidential authority and violated federal law.
What could this mean for other lawsuits? Eurasia analyst Noah Daponte-Smith says, “The SCOTUS ruling yesterday was more of a procedural than a substantive matter. That said, this is the second time that the court has allowed lower-court injunctions against Trump’s actions to go into effect, which may be an indication of how it will rule once substantive issues reach the court.”
“It is also notable that Barrett — a Trump appointee — sided with Roberts and the three liberal justices, suggesting that a 6-3 conservative majority is by no means unified on the questions of executive authority that the DOGE cases involve.”
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves as he leaves after testifying at the Public Order Emergency Commission in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on Nov. 25, 2022.
But Trudeau’s tenure was also marked by multiple controversies, including the SNC-Lavalin scandal, the WE Charity affair, and accusations of foreign interference. He failed to make major progress on Indigenous issues and his signature environmental policy, the national carbon tax, became a lightning rod for Conservatives. His generous pandemic aid programsdoubled the national debt, and his invocation of the Emergency Act to remove the so-called “Freedom Convoy” from Ottawa in 2022 was found to beoverreach by the courts.
By late last year, Trudeau’s Liberals had sunk so low in the polls that most assumed a Conservative government was inevitable. Since Trudeauannounced his resignation in early January, however, his party’s numbers have soared, due both to the prospect of a new leader and antipathy towards Trump’s comments about making Canada the “51st state.” Ironically, Trump gave the unpopular Trudeau a last-minute shot at redemption, rebranding himself as the champion of Canadian values and defending democracy at home and abroad. A high note to leave on after a tumultuous term.President Donald Trump talks with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a North Atlantic Treaty Organization Plenary Session at the NATO summit in Watford, Britain, in December 2019.
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a one-month tariff reprieve on all Mexican and Canadian goods governed by the USMCA, as well as potash,until reciprocal tariffs are imposed worldwide on April 2.Canada supplies 80% of US potash, a critical component of fertilizer. The decrees follow Wednesday’s one-month tariff reprieve for America’s Big 3 automakers: Stellantis, Ford, and General Motors.
What will be tariff-free? According to senior administration officials, 50% of goods entering the US from Mexico and 38% of goods from Canada would qualify. Some Canadian energy products will still be subject to a 10% tariff, and some Mexican products, like computers, will still face a 25% tariff.
How have Canada and Mexico responded? Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had not imposed tariffs but was set to announce them Sunday if no deal was reached.
Canada’s initial set of tariffs on $30 billion in American goods imposed on Tuesday will remain. A second wave of $150 billion set to take effect after 20 days has reportedly been suspended until April. Ontario Premier Doug Ford also said that Canada would be imposing a 25% tariff on electricity exports starting Monday, regardless of whether tariffs would be lifted. Canadian provinces have also removed US-made alcohol from store shelves and barred American firms from procurement contracts, and there is no sign that this measure will be reversed.
Why did Trump change course? Trump said “I wasn’t even looking at the market” but major stock indexes plummeted this week, as investors were spooked by the uncertainty. In the Oval Office, Trump said “This is about companies and countries that have been ripping off our country and they won’t be ripping off our country anymore.”
Trump’s reprieve on Mexico specifically mentioned actions taken to stem the flow of illegal aliens and fentanyl into the US. This contrasts with his conversation Wednesday with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in which Trump claimed Canada’s efforts on fentanylwere insufficient to drop US tariffs.
But the US president has citedother reasons for tariffs on Canada, including accusing the country of not allowing US banks to operate there and falsely claiming that the US “subsidizes” Canada to the tune of $200 billion a year. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick alsoaccused Canada of having a “national tariff” on US products because it has a 5-15% federal-provincial sales tax.