Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
What We're Watching
Mexico and Canada mull trade maneuvers as Trump proposes “External Revenue Service”
President Donald Trump talks with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a North Atlantic Treaty Organization Plenary Session at the NATO summit back in 2019.
Incoming US President Donald Trumpposted on Tuesday that he will create an “External Revenue Service” to oversee his planned trade tariffs, underlining his commitment to these policies – much to the chagrin of America’s neighbors.
“We will begin charging those that make money off of us with Trade, and they will start paying, FINALLY, their fair share,” wrote Trump.
The news came a day after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaumlaid out a plan to decrease Mexico’s trade deficit with China in what was widely seen as an olive branch to Trump.
By aligning more closely with Trump against China, Sheinbaum hopes she can carve out a special exception for Mexico, and a stronger hand in renegotiations of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Her administration has already cracked down on the import of counterfeit goods from Asia and placed tariffs on Chinese e-commerce platforms Shein and Temu. She also plans to cut down on reliance on imports for textile and auto manufacturers based in Mexico — but whether that will spare her the wrath of the ERS is yet to be seen.
North of the border, meanwhile, outgoing PM Justin Trudeau is also working on a plan to defend Canada’s trade interests with the US. He will hold a cabinet retreat next week to hammer out a potential response to Trump’s tariffs.Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a beachfront cafe amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Deir Al-Balah, Gaza Strip, on January 14, 2025.
After months of negotiations mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, Hamas on Tuesday accepted a draft ceasefire agreement that could bring an end to the fighting in Gaza – at least temporarily – if Israel’s cabinet approves it. Negotiators believe an agreement could be reached before Donald Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20.
What’s in the deal? Hamas would release 33 of the roughly 94 remaining Israeli hostages — mostly women, children, and elderly or injured people — over six weeks in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian women and children imprisoned in Israel.
During this first phase, Israeli forces would pull out of urban areas and allow some 600 truckloads of aid to enter Gaza each day. The IDF would not pull out of Gaza entirely, however, and people attempting to return to their homes will find them largely demolished.
Then it gets tricky. The details of the second and third phases would need to be negotiated while the first phase is in progress — and Eurasia Group regional expert Greg Brew isn’t confident that the right incentives exist to find success.
“Hamas really has two sources of leverage,” he says. “The first is the hostages, and when they lose the hostages they lose any ability to influence Israeli action. The second is their continued ability to fight, and it is likely going to continue a low-level insurgency against Israel and any potential new government formed to govern Gaza.”
So why a deal? For Hamas, a respite from combat allows reorganization and rearmament. The outgoing Biden administration, meanwhile, is eager for a win before it leaves office — and it’s one Trump will surely claim even if it comes before his inauguration. Brew says the timing offers the incoming administration a fig leaf. “When the deal collapses, he can say, ‘Oh, there were flaws in place. This was a bad deal. It happened under Biden's watch.’”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu similarly gets to have his cake and eat it too by delivering the hostage releases voters have demanded without fully committing to end the war, which would infuriate his far-right coalition partners.
“Netanyahu gets everything,” says Brew. “He gets a deal that makes Trump happy, that delivers a win to the Israeli people, that quiets the opposition, and that strengthens his position.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte speaks during a joint press conference at the summit of the Baltic Sea NATO countries at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, Finland, on Jan. 14, 2025.
Also on Tuesday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said he and France’s President Emmanuel Macron have continued to discuss the possibility thatWestern troops might be deployed to Ukraine to protect any peace deal his government might sign with Russia – though Zelensky tied this possibility with a request for more clarity on when Ukraine can join the European Union and NATO. This announcement came just before Zelensky welcomed German Defense Minister Oscar Pistorius for an official visit to Kyiv.
For now, the war grinds on. A Ukrainian security official said Tuesday that Ukrainian drones had carried outsuccessful overnight attacks on energy and military sites in central Russia. Russian officials say these attacks will “not go unanswered.”
Ukraine’s Air Defense Forces claimed it had shot down 58 Russian drones overnight, including near Kyiv.
President Joe Biden delivers a speech at the State Department on Jan. 13, 2025.
Biden did express concern about the environmental impact of data centers, which consume loads of electricity to power them – and water to cool them down. “We will not let America be out-built when it comes to the technology that will define the future, nor should we sacrifice critical environmental standards and our shared efforts to protect clean air and clean water,” the president wrote in a statement.
The executive order also clears the way for the federal land to be leased to developers of “clean energy” as well, with Biden framing them as key to the expansion of AI capability in the country.
Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivers a speech during a visit to the Manufacturing Futures Lab at UCL in London, on Jan. 13, 2025, as he prepares to launch a plan to harness AI to spur growth and efficiency in the country.
On Monday, the British government announced the AI Opportunities Action Plan, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s economic and technological development plan for artificial intelligence. Starmer’s goals include building a homegrown challenger to OpenAI, building data centers nationwide, and exploring renewable energy sources — including nuclear energy — to power the data centers.
Last year, Starmer canceled $1.7 billion of spending commitments meant for computing infrastructure as part of a broader set of budget cuts — nixing the promises made under the prior administration of Rishi Sunak. Starmer is now trying to leave his own mark with a play for “sovereign AI” in the country. “Today’s plan mainlines AI into the veins of this enterprising nation – revolutionizing our public services and putting more money in people’s back pockets,” the government wrote in a press release.
As part of the initiative, three companies — Vantage Data Centres, Nscale, and Kyndryl — committed $17 billion to build data centers, a plan the government says will create 13,250 jobs across the UK and increase compute capacity twentyfold by 2030. The ultimate goal: Starmer’s government wants to make the UK “irresistible” to AI firms.
Two hands, one human and one robotic, touching each other in front of a pink background.
In the next five years, 170 million new jobs will be created by macro trends including the rise of AI, but another 92 million will be displaced.
The report indicates that AI will fuel demand for a new cadre of workers, such as “big data specialists, fintech engineers and AI and machine learning specialists,” and demand for software developers will continue to rise. Cashiers, administrative assistants, and bank tellers will be among the displaced jobs.
Thankfully, newsletter writers and editors aren’t listed as easily replaceable — at least not yet.
The OpenAi logo is displayed on a mobile screen in this photo illustration.
The 15-page document lays out OpenAI’s vision for how America can maintain its global lead in AI development while staying ahead of China. OpenAI proposes national investment in AI infrastructure, such as new data centers, chip manufacturing facilities, and power plants. It also suggests “AI economic zones” — regions with streamlined permitting processes for AI.
OpenAI is also kicking off its “Innovating for America” campaign, a national tour in which company representatives will push for infrastructure investments — with visits to Washington, DC, as well as Alabama, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and New York.
OpenAI has already started getting closer to the Trump administration with co-founder and CEO Sam Altman donating $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund, something many tech companies and CEOs have done. Now it’s making specific demands of Trump’s Washington, which OpenAI hopes could clear red tape and boost AI investment.