Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
Yahya Sinwar, head of the Palestinian Islamic movement Hamas in the Gaza Strip, waves his hand to the crowd during the celebration of International Quds Day in Gaza City. Iran's leader delivered a historic address to the Palestinian people of Gaza, telling them to stick up to the fighting against Israel in a speech that reflected his country's support for the territory's ruling Hamas militant group. Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day, is a commemorative day in support of the Palestinian people held annually on the last Friday of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan by an initiative started by the late founder of the Islamic Republic in Iran.
Hamas has named Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, its new political leader. Sinwar replaces Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week. By tapping Sinwar, the militant group is moving in an even more hardline direction, raising doubts about a possible cease-fire.
Who is Sinwar? While Haniyeh was considered relatively moderate and open to diplomacy, Sinwar is known as uncompromising, ruthless, and violent. He, along with Mohammed Deif – who Israel claims to have killed – worked to build up the armed wing of Hamas. Believed to be hiding in the underground tunnel network in Gaza, Sinwar was already one of the most influential Hamas figures — and now he has full control over the military and political decisions of Hamas, as well as the fate of Israeli hostages.
Where does this leave negotiations? Even before Haniyeh’s death, any cease-fire agreement required Sinwar’s consent. This has reportedly delayed the process at times, as Sinwar is being actively hunted by Israel and reportedly refuses to use electronic communications (to avoid being found) — making it difficult for him to communicate with negotiators. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has been pushing hard for a truce, on Tuesday emphasized that Sinwar has had the final word over a truce deal “for some time.”
Sinwar demands that hundreds of Palestinian prisoners be released and that Israel withdraw fully from Gaza. But he also reportedly wants a permanent cease-fire that secures a historic victory for Hamas. Now that Sinwar has even more power, it gives him an opening to dig in further – to deny Israel a chance to claim victory.
Sinwar’s appointment could also see Israel become less open to reaching a cease-fire, given that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who has vowed to destroy Hamas — refers to him as a “dead man walking.” But the Israeli leader is also facing intense domestic pressure to secure the release of the hostages.
We’ll be watching to see how Sinwar’s appointment impacts talks after months of failed efforts by international mediators.