Senior Writer
Willis Sparks
Senior Writer
Willis Sparks is a senior editor for GZERO Daily. He is also a Director in the Global Macro practice at Eurasia Group, where he has worked since 2005. He has made speeches on international politics on every continent except Antarctica. Willis holds degrees from Brown University, the Juilliard School, Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, and the Institut d'Etudes Politiques in Paris. He also holds an honorary degree from the Moscow Art Theatre School. A native of Macon, Georgia, Willis has worked as a stuntman at New York's Metropolitan Opera. As a child, he declined an opportunity to spend an afternoon riding the Great American Scream Machine, a rollercoaster, with Ronald McDonald, for money. He has never regretted that decision.
Feb 19, 2025
A new YouGov poll conducted for the German Press Agency finds that one in five German voters is undecided on which party to support this Sunday in one of the most consequential national elections of 2025. That’s the best reason to keep an eye on the latest opinion surveys.
A poll of polls published by Politico.eu finds that support for the center-right CDU/CSU has fallen three points in the past three months, from 32% to 29%, while backing for the far-right Alternative for Germany, or Afd, party has risen three points over that period, from 18% to 21%. Support for the incumbent center-left SPD has been stuck near 16% for the past year.
What might change minds or help the undecided decide? According to that YouGov survey, about 27% of Germans get at least some of their political news from social media sites like X, Facebook, Instagram, and others. But that number jumps to 40% among AfD supporters and 43% for backers of the far-left party known as The Left.
The CDU/CSU is very likely to win, making Friedrich Merz the country’s new chancellor. But he’s likely to lead a coalition government with a weak mandate, in part because he has vowed to reject any cooperation with the AfD. The likeliest outcome appears to be a grand coalition between the center-right and the center-left SPD, but an 11th-hour surge in support for the AfD could force Merz to include smaller parties in his coalition.
