Exit polls point toward a loss for Modi in Kashmir

Authorities in Indian-occupied Kashmir are expected to announce results from the enclave’s first local election in a decade on Tuesday — and if exit polls are to be believed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party will come up short despite their claims to have brought peace to the region.

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In fairness to the BJP, the elections went off without any notable violence over its three voting phases between Sept. 18 and Oct. 1. Majority-Muslim Kashmir has been disputed between India and Pakistan since 1947, and a Pakistan-backed insurgency erupted in 1989, though Islamabad started withdrawing support in 2004. When New Delhi took the territory under direct control and revoked its state status in 2019, it flooded the region with troops and carried out mass arrests of separatists, and insurgency violence fell to all-time lows.

But exit polls show the BJP will probably win only about 30 of the 90 seats in the legislature. Their main rival in New Delhi, the Indian National Congress, allied with the local Jammu and Kashmir National Conference party but looks likely to fall short of a majority as well, at around 43 seats. So control will come down to who can woo enough seats from minority parties and the five seats that can be appointed by the Lt. Governor.

We’re watching how the horse trading shakes out and whether the BJP chooses to take a softer touch after the political rebuke.