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Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on June 22, 2023.
With tensions in the region already at a boiling point, Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, on Wednesday was killed by an airstrike in Tehran right after Iran’s new president was inaugurated. The Iranian government promptly blamed Israel, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei says Tehran has a duty to avenge Haniyeh and has reportedly ordered a direct attack on Israel.
Responding to Iran’s threats, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is “prepared for any scenario and will stand united,” adding, “Israel will exact a very heavy price for aggression against us from any arena.”
Tehran feels compelled to take retaliatory action due to the “provocative nature of the strike,” says Gregory Brew, a senior analyst and regional expert at Eurasia Group. Failing to respond would risk weakening Iran’s deterrence and diminish Tehran’s standing among allies, adds Brew.
Tehran is “very likely to respond, in muscular fashion, and the response is likely to include a direct strike on Israel,” says Brew, much like the barrage of missiles and drones Iran hit Israel with back in April after an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, killed seven IRGC officers.
Wednesday’s strike came just hours after Israel targeted a top Hezbollah commander with a strike in Beirut, which the Jewish state said was retaliation for a rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children. Hezbollah on Wednesday confirmed that the commander, Fuad Shukr, was killed by the strike.
The war in Gaza has fueled an escalating tit-for-tat between Israel and Iranian proxies, as well as Iran itself, raising fears of a wider regional conflict. There are now concerns that these recent strikes could be the sparks that light the fire, and that Haniyeh’s assassination will hurt efforts to secure a cease-fire in Gaza.
“This was a comparable – if not more overly provocative – action to the Israeli bombing of Iran’s consulate in Damascus, and Iran’s leadership will risk seeing their shaky deterrence further decline if they do not take suitable action in response,” says Brew. “Multiple Iranian leaders have already indicated the need to take revenge on Israel for Haniyeh’s death, and I would expect the response to come fairly quickly.”
The pair of strikes in Beirut and Tehran are also likely to put Gaza cease-fire talks on hold, but won’t “upend them,” says Randa Slim, a senior fellow and director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute. Hezbollah and Iran will most likely “coordinate their attacks” in terms of any retaliation, adds Slim.