It’s all Big Smoke and no fire in London, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pulled out of Russia-Ukraine peace talks that were scheduled to take place in British capital on Wednesday, right as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rebuffed the Americans’ peace plan that involved formally recognizing Crimea as Russian territory. Rubio’s move prompted organizers to downgrade the meeting, which was supposed to include foreign ministers from France, Germany, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom.
Rubio’s not-so-empty threat. The former Florida senator warned last week that the US will “move on” from peace talks if a deal wasn’t eminently “doable.” Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment on Wednesday. In skipping the London confab, Rubio appears to be following through, at least with the Europeans. US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who also canceled plans to be in London, is headed to Moscow for his fourth round of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Terms of the deal. As well as formally handing Crimea to Russia, the US peace proposal would force Zelensky to “de facto” allow Putin to maintain most of the occupied areas of Ukraine. The deal would also preemptively veto Ukraine from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. In turn, Kyiv would receive “a robust security guarantee.” The terms, though, are a non-starter for Zelensky and the rest of Europe.
Would the terms be enough for Russia? It’s unclear, but Putin reportedly offered to pause fighting on Tuesday in an apparent effort to reach a peace deal. On the other hand, the Russian leader’s past comments suggest he wants more.
“Putin last year said he also expects Ukraine to give up control over the parts of the claimed regions that Russia does not yet control,” said Alex Brideau, Russia director at Eurasia Group. “It may also demand new elections, on the assumption that it would lead a government that is friendlier to Russia.”
“Whether that’s realistic,” Brideau added, “Putin appears unwilling to deviate much from these demands.”
