TRANSCRIPT: Modi's India on the world stage
Barkha Dutt:
India is hardwired from inception as an independent country to be what used to be called "non-aligned," and what India's foreign minister now calls "multilateralism."
Ian Bremmer:
Hello and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast. This is where you'll find extended versions of my interviews on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and today we are taking a close look, a very close look at the US-India relationship. Based on the pomp and circumstance surrounding Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's state visit to Washington in June, the answer seems obvious, right? They love us, we love them, end of story. Am I right? Well, it's complicated. India's government is not quite ready to hitch its star completely to our American wagon. And the United States has made it somewhat clear that it's not a fan of India's friendly ties to Russia and Iran. Add to that the increasing international scrutiny on India's eroding democratic norms, press freedom crackdowns and religious persecutions. And the question becomes, is India a US ally? And don't even ask the Indians about eroding US political norms and institutions. That's a whole another show. My guest today will do her best to answer. Barkha Dutt is an award-winning Indian broadcast journalist and anchor with more than two decades of reporting experience, and she joins me now from London.
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The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our lead sponsor, Prologis. Prologis helps businesses across the globe scale their supply chains with an expansive portfolio of logistics real estate, and the only end-to-end solutions platform addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today. Learn more at prologis.com.
Ian Bremmer:
Barkha Dutt, thanks so much for coming back to our show.
Barkha Dutt:
It's a pleasure to be back, Ian. Thanks for having me.
Ian Bremmer:
And a great time indeed on the back of your Prime Minister Narendra Modi's trip to Washington. A lot of people are saying in the United States, this is the best bilateral that Biden has had since he became president. What do you account for the dramatic improvement of US-India relations? How much of it is China? How much of it is something else?
Barkha Dutt:
I think a lot of it is China, and a lot of it is also that in many ways, this is India's moment. I think if I were to look at why Narendra Modi was literally the showstopper at the White House, I would say there seems to be a great growing bipartisan anxiety in the United States of America about China, about China's aggression, about China's encircling of the Indo-Pacific region in particular, and their, India and China's interests, strategic interests converged. So that's one part of the story, certainly. The other part of the story is the galloping pace at which India's economy is growing. Despite all of the challenges that we face, India is among the fastest growing economies in the world. The size of the Indian market, the recent purchase, for instance, of the Boeing aircraft by Air India, General Electric deal-
Ian Bremmer:
The biggest ever. Biggest purchase ever. Yeah.
Barkha Dutt:
Yeah. The biggest ever. Yeah, so it's the size of our market, that's the second. And the third, I think, and maybe we don't talk about this often enough, is the success of the nearly 5 million strong Indian-American community in America.
Ian Bremmer:
Absolutely, absolutely.
Barkha Dutt:
From Sundar Pichai to Mindy Kaling, Kamala Harris, referenced again and again by both Biden and Modi, an example of the success story of this community. I think all of these are the things that work, that things have converged at this moment in time. China has a lot to do with it. Let's not kid ourselves, but there are some other things as well.
Ian Bremmer:
Now, I want to talk mostly about India, but I do have to push back because you talked about China's encirclement of the Indo-Pacific. And, I mean, at least if you look at military bases, it does feel like the Americans are doing the encircling. Is that fair?
Barkha Dutt:
Well, maybe I should have used the word a little more nonliterally. I think what I'm trying to say is that China is throwing money at countries in the region. And in particular, India's neighbors. And China is using infrastructure, it's weaponizing infrastructure, for example, building ports at very, very strategic places. There is of course the One Belt One Road project of China. So I think when India looks at all of this, India sees an aggressive China, a neo-imperialist China, China using both its access to markets as well as... just to share resources it's throwing at these countries to grow its influence. So it's basically buying influence for money is the Indian perspective. And I don't know, the Americans have multiple concerns about the rise of China, despite Antony Blinken trying to unsuccessfully thaw that relationship, right? So I guess all-
Ian Bremmer:
No, Blinken, you missed it. Absolutely.
Barkha Dutt:
Yeah, exactly.
Ian Bremmer:
That's all mine. It's okay.
Barkha Dutt:
Yeah, that's a good one. But I think that's the big convergence, right? That's the big convergence. It doesn't actually mean, I should say, that India and the US will have identical responses to China. I should say, I wrote in the Post that listen America, India's never going to be your ally in the way that you-
Ian Bremmer:
I know I saw that. I saw that. I was so sad. You said you called the Americans dear friends, but you said that India will never be an ally. Now I need to ask you, I understand that India is an independent country. They make their own decisions. It's a big country. You're going to have good relations with lots of countries around the world. But when I think about allies, I think about strategic and military alignment. And what I see is that the Indians are not going to be able to buy military equipment from the Russians the way they used to for lots of reasons, not least of which the Russians won't be able to produce at that quality and capacity and corruption and problems, all that. But then you've got the Chinese, and you're not going to buy from the Chinese because you're concerned about chips and surveillance and all of that. Every other country's tiny. The Americans are now saying they're willing to provide serious technology for military companies to go down and build and develop that supply chain in India. The Americans outspend the next 10 countries in the world on defense. I mean, if India's going to get into bed with the Americans on defense and technology like that, doesn't that put India on a road to maybe becoming an American ally? Am I really reading too much into that?
Barkha Dutt:
I mean, never say never. But I don't see it happening. I think the sort of outer limit of this relationship is going to be strategic cooperation. I don't at all deny the fact that India would like to stop our dependency on the Russians to buy weapons. I think the General Electric deal to manufacture engines for fighter jets in India is extremely critical. I think the conversations around purchasing armed drones is extremely critical. So I see your point, Ian, that we as a country need to move away from the Russians, and America is the obvious alternative. But will that translate into joining a security/military alliance? No. India is hardwired from inception as an independent country to be what used to be called "non-aligned." And what India's foreign minister now calls "multilateralism." Now you can push back and say, "What does that actually mean? Does it even mean anything? You've got to pick a side." The fact is, the Indians right now have got, I want to say get away, but I don't know if that's the correct phrase, have managed to move from a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the SCO, right to a meeting of the court and not have really had to pay any consequences for it. So India is asserting her moment in time for a variety of reasons. Every country plays to its own self-interest and India is doing the same.
Ian Bremmer:
Now, there's not a lot of pushback on India's democratic weaknesses right now from the United States, in part because India's having its moment, in part because the United States has its own challenges politically at home right now. But I did note that Modi and Biden both decided to take questions, which is not something that the prime minister does very often, and he was pushed back specifically on issues of treatment of minorities. He denied the existence of discrimination based on race, but I thought it was notable that he actually was willing to comment on it at all in the context of the United States. Do you see any shift at all inside India in terms of Modi's, what had been his particularly toxic relationship with Muslim minorities?
Barkha Dutt:
As a matter of fact, the BJP, the ruling party that Mr. Modi leads, is trying an outreach program in the last few months in India's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh with the Muslim community. In fact, a segment of the Muslim community that's known as the Pasmanda Muslims. And I'd be very intrigued to see actually what comes out as a result of that. But I want to say a couple of points about this democracy debate. Looking at that press meet where both Biden and Modi were asked about India's record and democracy and rights for minorities, I thought there were lessons for both sides. I think the lesson for the Modi government is you don't like this question. You get prickly about it. You think it's biased, Western media stereotyping, but the evidence tells you you can't ignore this question. So you have to find a way to engage with this question. You have to find a way to address this criticism if you think it's unfounded. You can't just say, I'm just going to evade this and this is an area I'm not going to go into because the op-eds and the questions and the journalists and even 70 lawmakers of America are going to bring it up with you. So don't evade the question-
Ian Bremmer:
And by the way, my understanding Barkha is that Indian journalists will bring it up too.
Barkha Dutt:
Some Indian journalists will, not all, some will and some do, and the point is it isn't going away. But for critics of the Modi government in America, some in the Western media, some in the Democratic Party, or maybe even among the Republicans, I would say that Indians, even those who do not vote for Modi, tend to close ranks if they think a Western power is being all judgy. It may come from our history of being a colonized nation. It may come from our saying, "Hey, are 70 lawmakers in India's parliament going to write a letter to Modi saying, 'Please remember to tell Biden about gun violence. Please remember to tell Biden about the abortion rights that women don't have.'" I guess the point I'm trying to make is there are messages for both sides. For the critics in America, let India battle this out, it'll probably be more productive. Don't be judgy. Talk to us as an equal. For the Modi government, you can't hide from this question. You need to start engaging with it. It's a real question, and you have to engage with the criticism that is brought to your door on this question.
Ian Bremmer:
Modi did say, of course, that democracy is in India's DNA. I understand that's a very useful talking point when addressing Congress, but how much do you think India's democracy as a set of values is actually essential to what Modi is trying to do, to the legacy he's trying to build?
Barkha Dutt:
It's a very interesting question, and I may sort of offer a counterintuitive answer because I speak neither as a supporter nor a critic, but I would hope as a dispassionate observer. I believe that Modi's image to him in the world is important. I believe that the prime minister comes from a somewhat bruised history. Remember this was the same leader who was once denied a visa by the Americans, and-
Ian Bremmer:
The United States. Absolutely.
Barkha Dutt:
Yeah. And not able to enter when he was Gujarat chief minister for nearly a decade. It matters to him to be seen as what in Hindi we call "Vishvaguru," a leader of the world, a leader on the world stage. And therefore, I think it matters to him. And I think he also feels that the Western press stereotypes him, as does some of the liberal press in India. He's always believed that. But I think that Modi's sense of his own legacy comes from actually winning elections. Modi is who he is, and as powerful as he is, because he wins elections. So in some ways, Modi's brand lies in democracy because he derives... he's not Putin, he hasn't made himself president, and he's not Xi Jinping. He is the elected leader of a vibrant democracy.
Yes, you can argue that what happens between elections, not at elections, I believe our elections are absolutely democratic, and some might argue even more so then the American process where a section of the polity refuses to accept election results in the US. But in India, the concerns are what happens between elections? Is there a way of deepening democracy when it comes to a free press? Is there a way of deepening democracy when it comes to losing archaic laws like putting away people for sedition. That's where we must focus. But I think Modi and his fans and his supporters cannot disassociate themselves from the democracy question because Prime Minister Modi is as powerful as he is, because Indians vote for him.
Ian Bremmer:
And it's not just that Indians vote for him, it's that the level, the extent of his popularity, I mean, at a time when established leaders are just getting destroyed across democracies all over the world, this is a guy that's not only consistently won. He's still at some 70%, 75% approval ratings across almost 1.5 billion people. I mean, that by itself is a fairly staggering statement.
Barkha Dutt:
His approval ratings have only improved. Some service suggests it's above 60, 65%, others above 75%, but they've improved. He has not diminished in personal popularity, though his party often has. And this is a very interesting situation because it's not that Modi doesn't lose elections. Modi loses state elections all the time, but when it comes to a national election, I think the real challenge for the opposition is that Mr. Modi has managed to pivot India's parliamentary democracy modeled on the British system to a somewhat American presidential system where the individual is actually determining the outcome of a national election more than sort of the arithmetic of 500 plus seats. So I think that's where India is at. I would of course, sort of hope that Mr. Modi's popularity is channeled into engaging with some of these criticisms instead of seeing them as sort of congenitally adverse to him, which is how he, perhaps because of his historically adverse relationship with sections of the media, has always seen the media commentary on him.
Ian Bremmer:
The big story that he had been making news for before this trip was the blowup of one of his major business supporters, Mr. Adani. And I wonder, has that implosion, one of the two most important business leaders in India, has that changed at all the way he thinks about the business community, about the need for transparency, has it changed his model for Indian growth at all? Again, the economic results speak for themselves, but this was a chippy few months for India's perception by the global markets.
Barkha Dutt:
The Adani-Hindenburg saga did certainly grab all the talking points for a few months, even in media seemed to be sort of partial to the government or government-friendly media. It was too big a story to ignore. And that's the nature of news. No matter how much somebody likes you, when the news is that big, it becomes the news. That said, I think for a lot of people, the ordinary Indian voter, it's too complicated to understand. So they'll understand it in some basic sort of rhetorical way. I'm not sure it's going to be the biggest issue going into the next election. It seems to have already kind of fallen off the headlines. But here's the interesting point. I mean, yes, I do think that there is some sort of, I want to use the word distancing, but I'm not sure, but we didn't see Gautam Adani being one of the business leaders who was present at the White House state dinner.
So I mean, I think it's just a sort of low-key phase. I don't think there's going to be anything maybe more significant than that. We have to see what our securities exchange board inquiry report finally decides. But I actually look at Narendra Modi as a welfare capitalist. I don't see the idea of him being this sort of center-right person on business, I just don't see that. I see in fact, Modi's big success coming from a lot of welfare schemes, a lot of using technology to deliver last mile subsidies. During the pandemic, free wheat and rice were sent to people with bags that had the image of Narendra Modi and the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh Adityanath on them. You have other programs, you have other direct cash benefits, especially for women. You have a toilet scheme, so you do not have the state diminishing, you don't have less state.
Mr. Modi used to talk about less state in business. But I don't think we have less state. We have a big state model. We have a big state model, and the state is very, very hands-on, and it's linked to actually Modi's political success in some ways. Yes, when it comes to big business, I wish for less and less regulatory huddles, because the more regulatory huddles you have, the more government you have, and the more proximity businesspeople feel to establish with politicians across parties. This is not unique to Mr. Modi. It was as true even in the Congress time, but I don't think we're there yet. I don't think we're like, yes, everything has been privatized. I think-
Ian Bremmer:
It sounds like he's insulated from the relations with these two massive... In the West, you'd consider them oligarchs. I mean, they're in every business. There's lots of corruption questions, all the rest, but fundamentally, that's not what drives the perception of Modi in terms of his economic policies and success.
Barkha Dutt:
I would agree with that. And the opposition has tried to make these big issues, but they've never really worked at the hostings.
Ian Bremmer:
Before we go, I mean, I do want to go back to what was, of course, the worst period that I remember for India in a very, very long time, and a lot worse for you. It was about two years ago when you were on the show, and it was just in the depths of COVID, and you had just lost your father. And I wondered, before we close, if you could just tell us how you're doing, and also maybe a word or two on this book that you just wrote about that time in your life.
Barkha Dutt:
Thank you for asking Ian. It's sort of a strange thing to go from being the chronicler of a story to becoming the sort of protagonist, and becoming the story that you've been reporting. And in some ways, I traveled across India during the pandemic, and we had a shutdown of public transport, and so I had to do it by road. And we are a big country, and I traveled from the north to the south and then not just did reports, but wrote a book basis that, and then, yes, in the middle of all that, I lost my father to COVID. It's been personally a very, very painful time, and professionally, ironically, some of my best work. And to reconcile that is quite a difficult thing to do emotionally. Sometimes you feel haunted by guilt, you feel like you could have done more for your father instead of more for the story.
And I know it shouldn't be a choice at all, and it wasn't, but I flew back to Delhi as soon as I heard. But you have all that guilt that children have about their parents, and so well, I live with it by hunkering down and working even harder. I don't know any other way to do it. My father's ashes are in a rose plant at the back of my house in a little garden, and I like to feel he's there and he approves of what I'm doing. My book is based on the people behind the headlines. I thought that there was a lot of data that was thrown around the world during the pandemic. So many millions, so many million. This dashboard America, dashboard, India. But what happened to those people? What happened to children who died? What happened to single parents? What happened to graveyard keepers? What happened to those who had to burn the bodies? What happened to hope and despair coexisting? So it's called Humans of COVID, it's about literally the people of the pandemic. And I hope you get a chance to read it, as do your viewers.
Ian Bremmer:
No, I look forward to it Barkha, and maybe you just owe your dad your best work.
Barkha Dutt:
That's what I try and tell myself.
Ian Bremmer:
I think so. I think so. Look, thank you so much. It's always good to see you. I hope to see you in person soon.
Barkha Dutt:
Thank you, Ian, and thanks for having me.
Ian Bremmer:
That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast. Do you like what you heard? Of course you did. Why don't you check us out at gzeromedia.com and take a moment to sign up for our newsletter, it's called GZERO Daily.
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