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Politics
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), the then-nominee for US ambassador to the UN, during a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025.
Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) hopes of moving to the Big Apple have been dashed after US President Donald Trump asked her to withdraw her candidacy for ambassador to the United Nations.
“As we advance our America First Agenda, it is essential that we maintain EVERY Republican Seat in Congress,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Thursday, admitting the political nature of his decision. When asked about her withdrawal, Stefanik told Fox News, “I have been proud to be a team player.”
Margin call: With four vacancies in the House, Republicans only have a 218-213 majority in the lower chamber, meaning they can only afford to lose three votes anytime they want to pass legislation. Trump fears that, if Stefanik moved to the UN, Republicans could lose the special election to fill her seat.
Bad signal: It’s not Stefanik’s seat that Trump is worried about right now, but rather Florida’s 6th Congressional District, formerly represented by none other than National Security Adviser and Signal-chat-scandal creatorMichael Waltz. There’s a special election there on Tuesday, and the president’s team is concerned that the well-funded Democratic candidate, Josh Weil, could defeat the underfunded Republican candidate, Randy Fine, even though Trump won the Daytona Beach district by 30 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
Eye on the poll: An internal Republican poll from March has Weil leading Fine 44% to 41%, according to a source familiar with the race, with 10% undecided. The poll was conducted by Fabrizio Ward, the same firm that worked for Trump’s campaign, and isn’t yet public. The February iteration of this poll found Weil trailing Fine by 12 points.
From left, FBI Director Kash Patel, Tulsi Gabbard, director of National Intelligence, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, testify during the House Select Intelligence Committee hearing titled “Worldwide Threats Assessment,” in Longworth building on Wednesday, March 26, 2025. The witnesses fielded questions on the Signal chat, about attacks against Houthis in Yemen, that accidentally included a reporter.
The drip, drip, drip of revelations about the Trump administration’s Signal chat continued Wednesday as The Atlantic published screenshots that showed senior officials sharing military plans on the messaging app. “1415: Strike Drones on Target (THIS IS WHEN THE FIRST BOMBS WILL DEFINITELY DROP, pending earlier ‘Trigger Based’ targets),” US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote at 11:44 a.m. on March 15, two hours before the United States bombed the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The trick is not getting caught: Before The Atlanticposted receipts for its original article, Hegseth flatly denied that anyone had been “texting war plans.” Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said at a Senate hearing on Tuesday that the chat didn’t contain any “intelligence equities.” After the screenshots dropped, Gabbard denied lying to senators, telling a House hearing on Wednesday that her Tuesday testimony “was based on my recollection, or the lack thereof, on the details that were posted there.”
Deflect, deflect: President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said Wednesday that the intense focus on this chat group was “all a witch hunt.” He also suggested that the Signal messaging app was faulty and that his predecessor, Joe Biden, was to blame for not having struck Yemen earlier – but the US under Biden did lead allied strikes against the Houthis in Yemen last year.
Legal tactics: Rather than punish someone inside the government ranks, the Trump administration may instead go after The Atlantic Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg, who was inadvertently added to the chat and published the screenshots.
“The Trump administration is very likely to target Goldberg with some legal repercussions, though runs the risk of keeping the story in the headlines as new angles emerge,” according to Eurasia Group US Director Clayton Allen.
For more insights on Signal-gate, check out Ian Bremmer’s latest Quick Take here.
NPR's Katherine Maher and PBS's Paula Kerger are sworn in at a hearing of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on Delivering on Government Efficiency in Washington, DC, on March 26, 2025.
On Wednesday, NPR’s CEO and President Katherine Maher, along with PBS CEO and President Paula Kerger, testified before the House Oversight Subcommittee on Delivering on Government Efficiency, where they faced accusations of left-wing bias. At stake: the $535 million they receive from Congress through the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
This subcommittee, chaired by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, was established as a counterpart to Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. The public media outlets were accused of spreading misinformation, focusing too much on stories about transgender people, and being biased against the president.
The outlets tried to shift the focus to their non-political content. PBS highlighted much of its programming geared toward education, in particular at preparing preschool-aged children who may not be able to afford daycare to enter school. NPR pointed to the critical role local radio plays during natural disasters – particularly in rural and remote areas – and argued that it was key to keeping local news alive since it is the only news outlet with a network of nearly 3,000 local journalists. Maher also said she regretted past tweets disparaging Trump and that the station made mistakes covering the Hunter Biden laptop story.
But their arguments didn’t seem to convince Republicans, with many saying that the rise of podcasts makes NPR less vital for getting news to rural areas than it was in the past. “I don’t think they should get a penny of federal funds,” said Congressman James Comer. We will be watching whether public media maintains its funding in the budget Republicans are working on over the coming weeks.Protesters take part in a demonstration march ending in front of the US consulate, under the slogan, “Greenland belongs to the Greenlandic people,” in Nuuk, Greenland, on March 15, 2025.
US Second Lady Usha Vance canceled plans to attend Greenland’s biggest dog-sledding race and visit historical sites after officials in Nuuk and Copenhagen balked at an uninvited trip from an official delegation as President Donald Trump pressures Denmark to cede its autonomous Arctic territory to Washington.
Instead, Vice President JD Vance is set to join his wife on Friday at a remote US military base on the Arctic island to “check out what’s going on with the security there of Greenland.”
Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussensaid the US cars shipped as part of an enhanced security detail were being sent home. Danish police ordered extra personnel to Greenland ahead of expected protests against the American delegation.
“It’s very positive that the Americans have canceled their visit among Greenlandic society,” Rasmussen said. “They will only visit their own base … we have nothing against that.”
Still, Rasmus Jarlov, the Danish lawmaker from the conservative opposition party who chairs the parliament’s defense committee, called for the “immediate” shuttering of Washington’s diplomatic mission in the Greenlandic capital. “The American consulate in Nuuk must be closed as soon as possible,” hesaid on X. “No other country would accept people who have openly declared that they are there to annex part of the country.”
An opening for the Danish right? Denmark is set to hold nationwide local elections in November, and a general election in October 2026, where conservatives hope to oust the ruling center-left Social Democrats by pitching themselves to voters as tougher defenders against US aggression.
Greenland’s center-right election victors, meanwhile, are negotiating a ruling coalition for the next government. The only party so far booted from the talks? The populist Naleraq party – considered the most pro-American. The Vances’ visit is unlikely to upend the discussions, particularly as the likelihood of major protests recedes.
The Trump administration is working to dismantle the Department of Education, a long-time conservative goal rooted in the belief that education is best managed at the state and local levels. Most decisions — especially regarding curriculum — already are made locally, but the department plays a key role in setting standards, assessing student performance, and supplementing where states are falling short. Critics worry that eliminating it could widen educational inequalities.
This could hurt US competitiveness, which is already slipping. In 2022, the US ranked 34th in global math performance, according to the OECD PISA assessment of 15-year-olds in 81 countries. Canada ranked ninth, despite also seeing a decline. The impact is evident in other surveys as well. In IMD Business School’s 2024 Competitiveness Report, the US dropped to 12th place among global economies, its lowest ranking ever — down from 1st in 2018.
The US and Canada aren’t alone. Math scores have been trending downward globally since the OECD PISA assessments began measuring them in 2002 – falling between one to three points every four years. But scores took a sharp tumble between 2018 and 2022, falling an alarming 16 points globally, likely because of education disruptions and school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic.
French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on March 17, 2025.
Amid Europe’s growing rift with President Donald Trump, a French lawmaker this weekend called on the United States to “give us back the Statue of Liberty” now that Americans “have chosen to side with the tyrants.”
But French President Emmanuel Macron came out with a more concrete plan to split with Washington. In interviews published Saturday in several French newspapers, Macron said he intends “to go and convince European states that have become accustomed to buying American” to purchase European missile systems and fighter jets instead.
"Those who buy Patriot should be offered the new-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy the F-35, should be offered the Rafale,” he told Le Parisien. “That's the way to increase the rate of production.”
While Belgium and the Netherlands still plan to buy new F-35s, Portugal is wavering on replacing its F-16s with the next generation of Lockheed Martin fighter jets, suggesting last week that it may look for European alternatives.
Not just Europe. Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney last week ordered his government to review its deal to buy as many as 88 American F-35s. So far, Ottawa has budgeted to buy only the first 16 planes.
Potential winners? Macron said he asked European defense contractors to find ways to reduce costs. But Turkey could prove a major winner of any European decoupling from the US. This month, the leading Turkish drone manufacturer formed a joint venture with one of Italy’s biggest weapons manufacturers. Leaders in European capitals and Ankara are now calling for closer defense ties.Bottles of Champagne are seen on display for sale in a wine shop in Paris, France, on March 13, 2025.
The party ended abruptly last week, and the last bottle of European champagne may have popped.
After President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, US allies quickly announced countermeasures. This included a European Union plan to introduce 50% tariffs on US whiskey. Further accelerating any impending trade war, Trump responded by threatening a 200% tariff on all EU wines, champagnes, and alcoholic products. In the words of former President Thomas Jefferson as interpreted by Lin-Manuel Miranda in “Hamilton,” “Look, when Britain taxed our tea, we got frisky. Imagine what gon’ happen when you try to tax our whiskey.”
European leaders caught between the rock of needing Trump to help bring an end to the war in Ukraine (while they aim to beef up collective defense) and the hard place of fearing economic contraction from US tariffs are quickly realizing that nobody is having fun anymore.
Lessons of a tariff man
As Europe and others look to rebound from the latest round of the Trump administration’s trade offensive, a few misguided lessons are being drawn. The first is about Trump’s attachment to tariffs and protectionist trade policy. Many headlines in recent weeks have propelled a narrative of the Trump “whipsaw” or the view that the administration quickly U-turns on trade policy. Examples like the retreat on Colombia or the initial deferral for Canada and Mexico are frequently cited as evidence of the tendency toward reversals. What these perspectives underappreciate, however, is both how longstanding Trump’s regard for tariffs has been, and how fundamental the administration sees it to its broader policy objectives. The concession-reprieve cycle is the noise, while economic security as national security is the signal.
Trump’s zest for tariffs dates back to the 1980s and was widely written about during his first administration. Now, this four-decade history seems to have been overtaken by disorientation and incredulity. In an interview given in 1989, Trump reportedly said “America is being ripped off … We’re a debtor nation, and we have to tax, we have to tariff, we have to protect this country.” Taking to social media last week, Trump echoed these sentiments, posting, “The US doesn’t have Free Trade. We have ‘Stupid Trade.’ The Entire World is RIPPING US OFF!!.” In short, there is no new Donald Trump.
But it is not just that Trump may be ideological about tariffs; it is also that he and his team have placed these beliefs at the center of their second-term ambitions. In a Day 1 presidential action, the administration announced that “Americans benefit from and deserve an America First trade policy.” For the Trump administration, “America First trade” means promoting investment and productivity, enhancing US industrial and technological advantages, and defending economic and national security to benefit American workers. Each of these objectives will be backed up by efforts to address unfair and unbalanced trade – tariffs and other measures – and wider economic security considerations, including reviews and investigations, with special attention given to economic and trade relations with the People’s Republic of China. The administration has laid it all out by executive action. When Trump orders the creation of an External Revenue Service to collect tariffs, duties, and other foreign trade-related revenues, he plans to collect the money.
Missed connections
The other lesson that should be gleaned from what has unfolded in recent weeks between the US and its allies, particularly in Europe, is about a mismatch in intentions. Trump and his trade team believe that protectionist policies will restructure the global trade system in favor of US industrial and manufacturing strength. Imposing tariffs across the board on steel and aluminum is aimed at reigniting the US metals industry, whether this comes to fruition will take years to assess.
When Europe responds to industrial tariffs by targeting goods with only limited substitutability like US whiskey, the goal is to find a pain point and apply leverage. The downside of such an approach, however, is exactly what analysts, the financial market, and those targeted by US tariffs have lobbed at Trump: It will be domestic consumers that are most hurt. Will Europeans turn to the United Kingdom to replace American whiskey with Scotch? Perhaps. But the UK is no longer in the EU anyway. France, Germany, and others seem unlikely to invest in their own domestic distilling for near-term gain. Instead, Europeans will be left to pay a heftier price for whiskey or go without. Likewise, Trump’s proposed countermeasures on European champagne put US consumers in an analogous position. The US domestic wine market may be robust, but champagne can only be made in Champagne, France.
As the potential domestic impact ratchets up, US allies will likely discover that retaliation leaves a bitter aftertaste, especially for the Transatlantic relationship. This is the forcing function of tariffs that the Trump administration is hoping to see.
US presidents who came before Trump like William McKinley and Herbert Hoover found that the best tariff intentions do not always turn out as planned, instead bringing domestic price increases and economic downturns. In the current interconnected world where supply chains are truly global, the historical experience may not directly apply. Still, there is a real risk that it might. The question is, when the music stops, who is left with a seat and a glass of bubbly?
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.