Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
Politics
Survivors of the KMP Tunu Pratama Jaya ferry sinking wait to be identified by officers at Gilimanuk port, after the ferry carrying 65 people sank near the Indonesian island of Bali, in Bali, Indonesia, July 3, 2025.
65: A ferry carrying 65 people sank near the island of Bali, Indonesia, late on Wednesday. Six people have died as a result, and authorities have now ceased the search for another 30 passengers. The remaining 29 have been rescued. Ferries are a major mode of transport in the Indonesian archipelago, but safety standards are notoriously lax.
25: The South American trading bloc Mercosur will meet this weekend to discuss something that has been under discussion for 25 years: a trade deal with the European Union. The two blocs reached a deal in principle last year, but the EU has yet to ratify it due to opposition from France – specifically, French farmers. Mercosur did seal a separate deal, though, with a group of four non-EU European countries.
28: In an awful shock to soccer fans around the world, Liverpool striker Diogo Jota and his brother André Silva – also a professional footballer – died in a car accident early Thursday morning in western Spain. The Portuguese star Jota, who won every major trophy in England, was just 28 years old.
30,000: Europeans may not celebrate Fourth of July, but 30,000 of them are still having their travel plans disrupted this weekend after low cost carrier Ryanair canceled 170 flights due to an air-traffic control strike in France.Iran’s Supreme Leader faces a number of challenges in the wake of the devastating 12-day war with Israel, and the perennial weakness of Iran’s economy is chief among them. Economic mismanagement, corruption, and strict Western sanctions have sapped output, weakened the currency and contributed to high inflation for years. But the recent spike in tensions with the US and Israel has accelerated the collapse of the Iranian rial, which has halved in value against the dollar since the end of last year. Here is a look at how the Iranian Rial has performed against the greenback since 2022.
What We're Watching: House folds on Trump bill, Beijing lashes out at US-Vietnam deal, Nigerian opposition unites
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson walks back to office, as Republican lawmakers struggle to pass U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping spending and tax bill, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 3, 2025.
House holdouts bluff then fold on Trump’s budget bill
The US House is set to pass President Donald Trump’s epic tax-and-spending bill any minute now. Some eleventh hour House Republicans holdouts had signaled that they would oppose the broadly unpopular bill because it boosts the national debt by trillions while threatening to leave millions without health insurance, but they quickly fell in line after under direct pressure from Trump. The imminent final passage of the bill will fulfil Trump’s wish to have the landmark legislation on his desk by the Fourth of July holiday.
US-Vietnam trade deal angers Beijing
The US and Vietnam struck a preliminary trade deal to lower their bilateral tariffs yesterday, and China is not happy about it. Why? Because as part of the deal the US will heavily tariff any goods that pass through Vietnam from another country en-route to the US. That’s a direct swipe at Beijing, which does this frequently to skirt high US tariffs. China’s commerce ministry said it “firmly opposes any party striking a deal at the expense of Chinese interests” and threatened “countermeasures.”
Nigeria sees huge political shakeup as opposition leaders join forces
In one of the biggest shake ups since the end of military rule in 1999, Nigeria’s two main opposition leaders – Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi – have joined forces to try to oust President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election. In the 2023 election, they won a combined 54% of the vote compared to Tinubu’s 37%, meaning a common front could win. The big question: Which of these two political heavyweights will agree to play second fiddle to the other when it comes time to pick a presidential candidate?What We’re Watching: Dalai Lama’s succession plans, Big Beautiful Bill in the House, Israel-Hamas ceasefire under review
The Dalai Lama at the start of his 90th birthday celebrations in his exile in northern India.
Who will be the next Dalai Lama?
As the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday, he is meeting with top Buddhist figures this week to lay out succession plans that could draw a sharp response from China. The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, fled his native Tibet after a failed uprising against Chinese rule in 1959 and became the global face of a campaign for Tibetan independence. While China wants to install a successor who will accept Beijing’s control of both Tibet and Taiwan, the Dalai Lama’s latest statement emphasized his office’s “sole authority” over the selection process.
Is the US House ready to pass Trump’s signature legislation?
Following Senate passage on Wednesday, President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” has returned to the House where lawmakers are scrambling to reach the floor for a possible vote later today. If all members of the House are present — following a cancelled recess, storms in the Washington area this morning have made travel to the Capitol challenging — Republicans can afford just three “no” votes from their members. Some House Republicans already say they would vote against the bill in its current form, likely delaying eventual passage until after Trump’s July 4 deadline.
Israel and Hamas are not yet committed to Gaza ceasefire
On Tuesday, Trump posted on his Truth Social account that Israel had “agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE” in Gaza and warned Hamas that its leaders had better say yes. As of late this morning, both Israel and Hamas remain publicly uncommitted to Trump’s terms. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit the White House next week.What We’re Watching: Thailand’s PM ousted, Musk vs Trump on bill and midterms, Turkey arrests journalists for blasphemy
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (C) speaks to the media during a press conference after the Constitutional Court suspends her from duty at Government House.
Thailand’s PM suspended over flattering phone call
Thailand’s constitutional court accepted a petition on Tuesday to suspend Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as pressure mounts over the leader’s alleged mishandling of a border dispute with neighbouring Cambodia. The petition accuses Paetongtarn of violating ethical standards in a leaked phone call with influential Cambodian politician Hun Sen, during which she flattered Hun and disparaged her own country’s military. Paetongtarn now has 15 days to gather evidence pleading her case. If she is removed, her party will likely select a successor, but broader clashes with the opposition – and the streets – may just be beginning.
Elon Musk makes a huge threat versus Trump
World’s richest man Elon Musk has more thoughts to offer on US President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” If the bill passes Congress, Musk warns, a third American political party “will be formed the next day,” and every lawmaker who voted for it “will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.” The Senate passed its $3.3-trillion version of the bill on Tuesday, but it must go back through the House before it reaches the president’s desk. Musk’s warning won’t change the fate of Trump’s signature legislation – overwhelming pressure from the US president will far outweigh anything Musk can immediately apply – but his threats to spend mega-millions to swing next year’s midterm elections can’t be ignored.
Cartoon controversy in Turkey
Four employees of a satirical magazine in Turkey have been arrested for publishing a cartoon that authorities say depicts the Prophet Muhammad, which is forbidden in Islam. With disturbing echoes of the so-called “Charlie Hebdo” murders in Paris ten years ago, Istanbul riot police have had to contain protesters outside the magazine’s offices chanting for “blood” and “revenge.” The publishers emphatically deny their cartoon depicts the prophet, but prosecution of these journalists will offer an easy political win for the ever-controversial President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his government.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to press before boarding Marine One to depart for Florida, on the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 1, 2025.
$199: For the low low price of $199 you too can wear the scent of the US president. Donald Trump has just released a line of signature fragrances – “for patriots who never back down” – with names like “Fight Fight Fight” and “Victory 47.” For true enthusiasts there’s even a limited edition bottle featuring a golden (and deceptively svelte) statuette of Trump, costing a mere $249. Yes, by the way, it’s legal for the president to sell perfumes.
250,000: Over 250,000 Afghans left Iran last month, after the government ordered the expulsion of all undocumented Afghans – many of whom fled the Taliban – by July 6. The expulsions are part of a broader forcible repatriation effort by Iran and Pakistan that the UN’s Refugee Agency warns could destabilize an already fragile region.
39: More than 39 people have been killed so far in a factory fire in South India’s Telangana state. While the cause is still unclear, Sigachi Industries – the pharmaceutical company which operates the factory – has announced that it will suspend operations for 90 days.
115.9 (46.6): A heat wave is ripping across Europe, with temperatures soaring into the triple digits, reaching 115.9°F (46.6°C) in one Portuguese town on Sunday. The high temperatures are causing all manner of chaos: two Italians have died as a result, and heat-stoked wildfires are ravaging Turkey.
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian digs into the surprise Democratic primary victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York’s mayoral race and why it might be “an early signal of something much bigger in the United States.”
Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist, ran on a platform of $30 minimum wage, state-run groceries, and taxing billionaires. “I don’t think we should have billionaires,” Mamdani told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on June 29th. Ian unpacks why that kind of economic populism is gaining steam.“
Socialists can’t beat capitalists,” Ian says, “but they can beat kleptocrats.” He warns that both right- and left-wing populism are being fueled by a growing sense that the American system is rigged. As AI begins threatening white-collar jobs, that discontent could spread to entirely new demographics, creating real risk for political and business elites.
“This isn't a mainstream position,” Ian notes. “But it's a hell of a lane for economic populists.”