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Quick Take
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer unpacks Iran’s carefully calibrated retaliation against the United States after a major American strike on its nuclear program. Tehran launched missiles at a massive US base in Qatar, but warned Washington ahead of time, resulting in no casualties.
“It shows incredible weakness on the part of the Iranian government,” Ian notes, emphasizing the Islamic Republic’s desire to avoid provoking further US escalation.
Ian calls the moment “the biggest foreign policy win for President Trump” so far in his second term, as Iran appears increasingly isolated and risk averse. He also highlights how the regime's top leadership is in hiding, further hampering its ability to coordinate or negotiate.
While the immediate threat of escalation has eased, Ian still warns that “rogue actors” within Iran’s military still pose a risk. For now, though, oil prices are down and the region is holding its breath.
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the US decision to formally join Israel in military strikes against Iran, marking a major escalation in the Middle East.
“The United States has formally entered the war in Iran,” Ian says, following a week of rising tensions and failed negotiations.
American forces launched targeted strikes on Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear facility and two other sites, a move Ian calls a “TikTok-style war,” quick, explosive, aimed at avoiding a long-term ground conflict, and something “Trump’s base can certainly get behind.”
Trump, who has positioned himself as a peace-focused president, “is now 0-3 on his big efforts at negotiations,” Ian notes, referencing failed talks with Russia, Israel, and now Iran.
Now the world waits to see how Iran responds. So far, the regime has shown restraint, but with its leadership weakened, deterrents degraded, and the threat of further strikes looming, retaliation is likely. Whether through proxy attacks or asymmetric escalation, Ian says Iran is now “more likely to act unhinged and less rational than what we’ve seen so far.”
As the Israel-Iran war intensifies, Iran is seeking an urgent ceasefire, facing overwhelming Israeli military air superiority.
"They have virtually no capacity to strike back,” says Ian Bremmer in today’s Quick Take. Iran has reportedly expended 20% of its ballistic missiles, with minimal damage inflicted, while Israel has crippled large parts of Iran’s military infrastructure and nuclear program.
The US also looms large, as Ian says, “Trump is basically saying, ‘We’re not entering the war, but we will if you don’t engage in negotiations.’” A US-backed strike on Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant remains a real threat if talks stall.
Despite widespread global condemnation of Israeli strikes, even Iran’s allies like Russia are not stepping in militarily. “Regime survival is the priority now,” Ian warns, as internal dissent grows within Iran’s leadership. But with the risk of irrational escalation rising, Ian adds: “That’s the fog of war stuff … far more likely as this war is going on.”
Tensions in the Middle East escalate as Israel launches a surprise military strike against Iran, prompting international concern and speculation about broader conflict.
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer calls Israel’s strike on Iran “a huge success for the Israelis” and a significant blow to Iran’s regional influence. “A fair amount of Iran’s top military leadership has been decapitated by Israel,” he notes. While the US did not take part directly, Ian says President Donald Trump “gave at very least, a blinking yellow light, if not a direct green.” He warns of three high-risk responses Iran may pursue: a push for nuclear weapons, disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, or a harsh domestic crackdown. All are high-risk and carry the potential to draw the US and Gulf states into deeper conflict.
The deployment, which has sparked protests across the city, marks the first such federal action without a governor’s approval since 1965, when President Lyndon B. Johnson sent troops to Alabama to protect civil rights demonstrators from segregationist Governor George Wallace.
“This is obviously very different kind of politics,” said Ian, “but nonetheless reflecting of where the country… is increasingly oriented—not in becoming more progressive… but instead in securing the border.”
Images of protests featuring Mexican flags, Ian notes, feed a narrative the president is eager to promote.
“If Trump continues to respond in a public and aggressive way, there’s certainly a risk that tensions could escalate,” Ian warned, “especially as deportation operations ramp up in the coming months.”
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Ian Bremmer breaks down the clash in his latest Quick Take, calling it “super dysfunctional … but what isn’t around US politics?”
The fallout stems in part from a sweeping tax-and-spending bill Musk opposes, but deeper tensions are personal. Trump abruptly cut ties with Musk, removing key allies like NASA’s administrator, despite Musk's massive political donations and behind-the-scenes influence.
Musk, feeling betrayed, fired back, publicly suggesting Trump should be impeached. Ian warns the feud reflects deeper dysfunction in American politics, where influence is bought, loyalty is volatile, and institutions bend to personal power. Still, don’t rule out a truce.
As Ian notes, “They can clearly patch it up, and they should … because it is in both of their interests.”
Ukraine’s unprecedented drone strike deep inside Russian territory destroyed up to 20 aircraft, including nuclear-capable bombers and early warning systems.
Ian Bremmer calls it “one of the most extraordinary asymmetric attacks in modern warfare,” raising urgent questions about Russia’s nuclear deterrence and the global balance of power.
Powered by a homegrown drone program and diaspora technologists, Ukraine’s low-cost innovation dealt a massive blow to Moscow’s high-value assets. Ian draws parallels to Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah, showing how modern warfare is being redefined.
“The dangers are not just to the Ukrainian people—the dangers are increasingly global,” warns Ian.