Harris, Trump and the hypocrisy in US politics

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Today the Democratic National Convention kicks off. The second of the big party conventions. We are waist deep, neck deep in the US electoral cycle at this point, and, you know, the funny thing is how both of these parties have coalesced with such extraordinary enthusiasm around candidates that most of the leaders, and when I say the leaders I mean the party elites, I mean the leaders in Congress, I mean the donors, and I mean the media, had been saying privately, and some publicly, that they strongly opposed.

So the hypocrisy in the system at the high levels is very apparent. And you know I think it's worth talking about both of these because it doesn't reflect the way the people think about the candidates but it does help to explain why so many American citizens are fed up and think the political system is broken. On the GOP side, of course, the Republican Party has lost three electoral cycles with Trump on top. They have privately said that they wanted anyone else but Trump. They'd back anyone else that was big, big money behind DeSantis and behind Nikki Haley and anyone else they could find. And you had J.D. Vance, who was saying that Trump was an opioid for the masses until he got addicted himself.

You had Nikki Haley saying that they'll definitely lose if Trump is the nominee. And now, of course, she's a full-throated endorser, supporter of his. Fox News refused to put Trump on their news. Rupert Murdoch basically banned him from interviews, and now, of course, they're fully behind him again. And it is, of course, a reflection of the fact that not only is he the nominee for the party, but he is the person that the vast majority of the Republican electorate not only wants but wants strongly. They're not interested in listening to the so-called leadership of their party telling them what they want.

The Democrats have gone through a similar process. We've heard for a couple of years now from the Democratic leaders, from the elite, from the media how Joe Biden was great and he was the only person that could be the nominee. And everyone needed to get behind him no matter what. And that Kamala Harris would be a disaster and the country wouldn't vote for her. They wouldn't support her. That she couldn't beat Trump, that her popularity ratings were too low. She was unpopular. Her staff turned over too much. The whispering campaign against Kamala Harris was extraordinary not just from Biden insiders but from leadership of the Democratic Party. From Democratic donors, and of course from the media. And now that Biden, under a lot of pressure after that disastrous debate performance and lots of other missteps, showing that he was way too old to run.

Now that Kamala Harris is the nominee, you could not find more loyalty, more engagement, more promotion of how Kamala Harris is a godsend, is the savior of the party, is going to be the next president no matter what. And you know, it's kind of painful to see that we have a group of people that have delegitimized themselves by being willing to say whatever is necessary to get in line behind the leadership. But I don't think that reflects the parties as a whole. Certainly not the rank and file.

I think that Kamala Harris is young. She's smart. She's charismatic. And she's much more popular among a lot of people. Among women. Among Hispanics. Among Blacks. Among young people in the country. She's much more personally in tune with what they want in terms of the economy. In terms of the world. In terms of Israel-Palestine, for example. I think you can say the same thing for Trump.

Also, on abortion for Kamala Harris. I think you can say the same thing on Trump. Different populations, different priorities, but same sort of sick of the party leadership and sick of the media telling them what to do. And much more in line with what he says about immigration. What he says about bringing jobs home. About tariffs internationally. Anti-trade message. Much more nativist. Much more promotes the rank and file American. Now, did that reflect what Trump actually did when he was in office? Not that much. Would that reflect what Kamala Harris would do as president or what she has done as vice president? Not that much. But nonetheless we are talking about, in my view, two candidates that frankly are now much more in step with the populations in the United States.

And I say populations. I wish I could say one population, but it's not. It's two very different groups of people that are being divided and made more and more separate every day by the media landscape. By the algorithms in particular and by the politics. But I don't think that there is much of an enthusiasm gap now. I do think you have an awful lot of people that are very excited about Trump being their president. You have an awful lot of people that are very excited about Kamala Harris being their president, and it's going to be a close race. And it's going to turn out on the basis of a small number of states. A small number of districts that could go either way. But it's going to be really interesting as a consequence.

The thing that worries me the most, and I've said this for a long time but I will restate it, is that I think there's one candidate here of the two that is not prepared to accept a peaceful transition or a loss, and that is Donald Trump. We saw that in 2020. And I fear that if he loses in November, that we're going to see it again in 2024. And I think that's dangerous. I think it's dangerous to have someone say that it's rigged if he loses and calls for his supporters to do everything they can to overturn it. That is not where we want to be as a democracy. It is a sign of a democracy in crisis. I worry specifically that the most powerful individual in the United States, Elon Musk, is fully on board with that message. Is talking a lot about illegal immigrants that are voting in large numbers, even though that's not true. Is talking a lot about the election in the US being rigged. Is promoting and enhancing that message. And on the basis of what we just saw in the UK, was promoting disinformation that led to a lot of violence and riots and saying that civil war in the UK is inevitable.

And if we see that in the United States, we're going to see the most dangerous political environment in generations. So I am very concerned about the state of US politics, about the state of American political elites, the media landscape, the social media landscape. I am less concerned about the state of the average American citizen and how they engage with politics in the country. But of course, the potential for this outcome to be manipulated and the potential for it to lead to more division, I think, is something we all should be paying a great deal of attention to. So that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.