Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
News
Will a lame-duck Biden be bold before Trump takes over?
President Joe Biden meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House in Washington, U.S., Sept. 26, 2024.
President Joe Biden has been a lame-duck president ever since he dropped out of the 2024 presidential race. But now that the election is over — and Donald Trump is president-elect — Biden no longer has to worry whether his decisions will hurt Kamala Harris’ chances of winning.
Could Biden potentially use this newfound wiggle room over the next few months to take steps that might’ve been politically damaging for Harris before Election Day?
Here are two areas of greatest attention:
The president, for example, could make good on warnings to Israel that his administration would cut military aid if humanitarian conditions in Gaza don’t improve. Such a move is “on the table” but would “still run into significant political backlash in the US,” says Eurasia Group’s US director Clayton Allen.
Plus, now that Bibi knows that Trump is heading to the White House in January, the effectiveness of conditioning assistance would be limited, says Allen.
“Bibi knows that things are going to get better for him in two-and-a-half months,” adds Allen, and would be unlikely to shift course in Gaza over a move that Trump could undo once he’s in office.
Biden could also take action by declining to veto UN Security Council resolutions seeking to hold the Jewish state accountable for its actions in Gaza. His administration has done this before, refusing to veto a resolution calling for a cease-fire back in March, stoking Netanyahu’s ire. But these measures would be largely symbolic, accomplishing little with Netanyahu, who has already signaled that the UN’s views on the Jewish state’s prerogatives amount to a hill of beans.
Another move could be approving the use of long-range weapons by Ukraine on targets in Russian territory, which the US has imposed restrictions on so far. That is a “more likely potential shift” than Biden taking any major steps to challenge Israel, says Allen, noting that the administration was already considering a move like this even before Trump won.
There could also be steps taken to “try and codify some sort of security commitment to Ukraine via the NDAA process,” adds Allen, referring to an annual defense funding bill, but that would depend on garnering support in Congress.
But at the end of the day, the lame-duck period is unlikely to yield lasting changes in policy, a fact that Zelensky seemed to acknowledge in his congratulatory tweet to Trump, in which he told the president-elect that he hoped to work together to achieve a “just peace.” Trump, for his part, has pledged to end the war within 24 hours after assuming office — but hasn’t expanded on how he’d accomplish this.
Donald Trump
America has spoken. Donald Trump will become president of the United States again. And I can’t say that I’m surprised.
This election comes at a time when people all over the world are unhappy with where their countries are going, and they don’t trust their political institutions to right the ship. Some of that is a product of the deepening geopolitical recession, which is in part driven by a backlash against globalization and the globalist elites who promoted their own economic and political interests at the expense of their populations. Some of it has to do with the economic and social disruption caused by post-pandemic surges in inflation and immigration.
As a result, what was historically an electoral advantage in democracies has become a liability in the current cycle: incumbency. Over the past year, most incumbents around the globe have either been forced out of office or seriously underperformed at the ballot box (e.g., in the United Kingdom, Japan, France, Germany, Austria, India, South Africa, etc.). Those who haven’t faced voters yet are deeply unpopular and expected to lose power soon (e.g., Canada, Germany, Norway, etc.).
The fact that Kamala Harris couldn’t escape this fate after four years as vice president to an unpopular administration was therefore hardly unexpected. No party has ever retained the White House when incumbent approval is as low as it is. Over 70% believe the country is on the wrong track, and Americans have little confidence in their government’s handling of the top issues they care about: inflation and immigration.
Sure, inflation – the average rate at which prices in the economy increase over time – has come way down from its pandemic-induced highs and is now near the Fed’s target. But prices themselves are still high owing to years of above-target inflation, and those prices aren’t coming down absent a recession (not to mention the fact that Trump’s plans promise to increase inflation). Fair or not, the party in power gets blamed for that. Similarly, illegal immigration has also been coming down, but crossings are still at elevated levels, and most illegal immigrants find ways to stay in the country. Many illegal immigrants also moved (or were moved) from red states to blue states, making the issue more important to more of the country than before.
Democrats had hoped to counter these headwinds with messages about access to abortion, the economy, and Trump’s threat to democracy and general unfitness for office. But a problem got in their way: a hyperpolarized information environment that makes it difficult for either side to reach across the aisle to the other half of the country. There are two radically different information spaces in the US, and the gap between these algorithmically boosted, media-driven bubbles is only growing. It’s increasingly difficult to have a single conversation on any policy issue, let alone to find compromise on solutions, when we don’t even agree on basic facts about what the problems are. That’s a very dysfunctional place to be for our civic democracy.
Ultimately, though, the American people looked at the two candidates and found Trump’s message more compelling, and they handed him as resounding a national victory as either candidate could’ve hoped for in today’s polarized environment. Trump shattered his previous ceiling of national support and made gains across the board relative to 2020. He is on track to sweep every swing state and become the first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years on the back of a broad-based shift to the right in almost every geography – from rural areas to my very own New York City – and with nearly every demographic group, including young, female, Black, and Hispanic voters.
The Republican Party also took control of the Senate, with at least 52 and as many as 56 seats in the 100-seat chamber – enough to confirm Trump’s appointees, but not enough to get away with repealing the legislative filibuster or confirming obviously unqualified nominees. Republicans are favored to win a narrow House majority, too, though the exact margin may not be known for several weeks due to slow counting in states like California and close races elsewhere. A unified government – along with an already friendly judiciary – will make it significantly easier for Trump to enact his domestic policy priorities, from tax cuts and defense spending increases to immigration overhauls.
And if you think Trump’s return will have a profound impact on the United States (fact-check: true), it will matter even more for the rest of the world.
The biggest loser is Ukraine. Trump has repeatedly said he will end the war there in 24 hours. Of course, what he really means is that he wants to freeze the conflict along the current territorial lines, with Russia de facto getting to keep the land it has conquered. The war is already going badly for the Ukrainians, with Western military and economic support past its peak. Trump will try to unilaterally cut a cease-fire deal with Zelensky and President Vladimir Putin even before the lame-duck period ends, using military aid to Kyiv as leverage over both sides without coordinating with America’s European allies. If Trump calls Zelensky first and demands a cease-fire (and the de facto cession of territory), and Zelensky refuses, the ball will then shift to Putin’s court.
Regardless of the election outcome, Ukraine would have been forced to negotiate sooner or later. The difference is that Harris would have coordinated that negotiating position with Ukraine and the EU. Trump doesn’t want to be responsible for “losing” Ukraine, nor does he take issue with Ukrainian self-defense. But he thinks Ukraine’s defense should be paid for primarily by the countries that have the biggest stake in it: the Europeans. Trump’s bargaining approach may succeed at ending the war … or it may not.
Either way, Europe will have a big problem on its hands. Trump’s Ukraine policy will put a lot of strain on the trans-Atlantic relationship. The Europeans, many of whom are already struggling economically, will also be facing higher tariffs from the Trump administration. Will they take a stronger, more consolidated position on Ukraine, or will they fragment? Will they continue to align closely with the US on trade with China, or will they start to hedge more? Will the European Union crack under the pressure, or will it be galvanized by Trump to finally build a stronger, more strategically autonomous union? Those are all huge question marks.
Then there’s the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was already riding high politically on the back of a string of military wins. He was a big winner yesterday as well, as he can expect greater support from Trump than he could have from Harris. The vice president was not going to end the special relationship with Israel, but Trump is going to make even more of a push to support the Israelis and the Gulf States – another group of winners. Trump and Netanyahu are also aligned in their enmity toward Iran. Will Trump’s blank check embolden Bibi to take even more aggressive actions in the region, potentially against Iranian nuclear facilities? That’s a very dangerous situation that bears close watching.
And let’s not forget China. The world’s second-largest economy is already underperforming, and Beijing is feeling increasingly defensive about the tariff threats coming from hawks like former Trump trade czar Robert Lighthizer. The Chinese are going to be frantically trying to establish back-channels to China-friendly Trump allies like Elon Musk, hoping they can facilitate a less confrontational relationship. Will Trump support that, or will his hawks get the upper hand and push for an even more confrontational approach? Beijing will move cautiously and slowly in this environment.
To be sure, just as he did in his first term, Trump will be able to get some foreign policy wins just by virtue of being the president of the most powerful country in the world. But the potential for things to go sideways is much greater in this environment. Geopolitics are in for a volatile and unpredictable ride, and the United States is about to become the epicenter of it.
So take a deep breath and strap in, folks. It’s going to get bumpy.
Republicans reclaim Senate control, with a unified government in reach
As projected, Republicans have won back control of the Senate, largely thanks to Democrats vacating seats in the red states of Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia. The victory gives them the power over nominations of judges and heads of the federal bureaucracy, as well as the ability to control legislation – positioning them to be a boon to Donald Trump’s policy goals.
Their victory comes as the GOP’s longtime leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, 82, steps down. Republicans are expected to hold elections for new leadership next week.
If current trends hold, Republicans look set to flip five Senate seats in West Virginia, Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, which will give them a firm 54-seat majority in Congress. Democrats never had much hope of holding on to West Virginia or Montana, meaning they knew they would likely lose the chamber. But the Democrats’ underperformance in the swing states of Nevada and Pennsylvania means President-elect Donald Trump’s party will have a comfortable margin.
With six Senate races still to call, the size of the GOP’s majority will matter greatly, especially since Republicans like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska regularly break party lines.
Interestingly, as of the time of writing, Democratic Senate candidates are leading in Arizona, and Wisconsin, and won in Michigan, all states that Trump won on the presidential level. If they all squeak out wins, and independent Sen. Angus King holds on to his seat in Maine, Democrats will have 46 seats — enough to filibuster comfortably and stymie some GOP legislation.
That becomes especially important if the GOP also wins the House, where they currently have the lead with 200 seats against the Democrats’ 180. The GOP only needs to win 13 of the remaining competitive races to take control of the lower chamber, and they are leading in 13 of them; the Democrats need 24 and are only up in six.
Hard Numbers: Cuba battens down the hatches, Mexico’s judicial reform stands, Iran’s currency hits record low, Tsk tsk Pyongyang, Reckless raccoon
People wait in line to buy bread before Rafael's arrival in Havana, Cuba, on Nov. 5, 2024.
8: On Tuesday, Mexico’s Supreme Court dismissed a proposal to narrow the scope of a controversial reform plan that would require all judges in the country to stand for election. Seven of the 11 justices voted to limit the election requirement to Supreme Court justices, buteight votes were needed to water down the reform.
703,000: On Wednesday, Iran’s currency fell to an all-time low as news of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election hit markets. The rial traded at703,000 to the dollar before a slight recovery later in the day.
2/3: Ten of the 15 current UN Security Council members condemned North Korea’s recent launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile and called on Pyongyang to return to negotiations. Ecuador, France, Japan, Malta, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom supported a US statement of condemnation. Russia, China, Algeria, Mozambique, and Guyana refused.
8 billion: At the Marine Air Terminal at New York’s LaGuardia airport, a raccoon fell through the ceiling at a departure gate earlier this week, causing chaos. This smaller terminal was not part of the infamously ramshackle airport’s recent$8 billion upgrade.
Republican presidential nominee in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., November 6, 2024.
Donald Trump won the presidential election in an apparent landslide on Tuesday night, with a realigned GOP coalition that, according to early exit polls, successfully drew young, male, and minority voters.
“We’ve achieved the most incredible political thing," Trump said in an address at his campaign headquarters early Wednesday, proclaiming a “political victory that our country has never seen before."
As of this writing, Trump had surpassed the 270 electoral college votes needed to secure the presidency, winning in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, and defying Democratic hopes that Kamala Harris would carry Pennsylvania and Georgia as Joe Biden did in 2020. Trump also looked set to win the popular vote, becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to do so in 20 years.
Trump clinched the White House by winning Pennsylvania by over two percentage points and cracking the so-called Democratic “blue wall,” of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He won the Badger State by one percentage point, and while the count continues in the Wolverine State and it's close, he maintains a lead there as well.
Threats of violence. Polling places in several states were targeted with bomb threats. In DeKalb and Fulton, Georgia, two counties that would have been key to a Democratic win of the swing state, threats caused five polling places to be closed in the final hours of voting, and the FBI uncovered that they appeared to be sent from Russian email domains.
Where did Harris go wrong? She may have bet too big on one issue: democracy, which came in third – after the economy and immigration – on the list of voter’s concerns heading into the election. Harris’ closing campaign message focused on Trump’s anti-democratic rhetoric – and perhaps not enough on pocketbook issues.
Harris also struggled with young Democratic voters, who may have wanted a platform that promised greater policy change – especially on issues like the war in Gaza and climate change – which led to her underperforming in some cities and swing-state college towns. Meanwhile, Trump’s efforts to appeal to young men – who typically vote at the lowest rates – were highly successful. Another surprise of the night was early exit polling that showed Trump gaining substantially among Latino and Black voters, particularly men.
Trump has a strong mandate and will face few constraints. "America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," Trump told supporters overnight. Indeed, Republicans won the White House and the Senate -- and could also win the House in the coming days. Taken together with a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, Trump will come into office in an immensely powerful position to implement his vision for America.
Republicans regain control of the Senate, and could go on to take it all
Republican candidate for US Senate Bernie Moreno celebrates his victory over Sherrod Brown at his election night party at the La Centre Conference & Banquet Facility in Westlake, Ohio, a Cleveland suburb, on November 5, 2024.
Republicans retook control of the Senate on Tuesday night, with crucial victories in West Virginia and Ohio giving the GOP at least 51 seats in the upper chamber.
Republican Jim Justice was projected to win in West Virginia, snatching an open seat that was vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin, who was a Democrat before becoming an independent. In Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno was projected to win against incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
The GOP needed just two seats to flip the Senate, and could still increase their majority with results still coming in from other competitive states: Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
That said, there are not enough open seats for the GOP to reach the 60-vote threshold that is necessary to advance most legislation, meaning they’ll still have to work with Democrats on most initiatives.
Meanwhile, control of the House remains up in the air. Out of 435 seats up for grabs, Republicans have won 198 so far, while Democrats have won 180. It could take days or weeks to get the full results.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attend a ceremony for the 70th cohort of military combat officers, at an army base near Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, October 31, 2024.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, after months of disagreements over the war in Gaza.
If this feels like deja vu, it’s because Bibi also sacked Gallant last year, before the Gaza war, only to reinstate him as defense minister two weeks later amid mass protests.
Why now? Gallant’s dismissal comes as Israel fights on multiple fronts: against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and amid an escalating tit-for-tat with Iran. It’s a difficult moment for Netanyahu to be replacing his defense minister, but Netanyahu said there was a “crisis of trust” between him and Gallant.
Israel Katz — the country’s top diplomat and longtime ally of Netanyahu who recently made headlines for banning UN chief António Guterres from entering Israel — will replace Gallant. And Katz will be replaced as foreign minister by Gideon Saar, an ex-rival of the prime minister, in a move that appears designed to help stabilize Netanyahu’s fragile coalition.
The shift means Bibi now has an even tighter grip over Israel’s prosecution of this multifront war. Gallant frequently challenged Netanyahu’s approach — and pushed hard for a cease-fire agreement to bring about the release of hostages in Gaza — and now he’s out of the way.
A distracted US. Gallant had a strong relationship with the Biden administration, which has often been at odds with Netanyahu. The Israeli PM fired him on Election Day in the US, perhaps hoping the White House would be too preoccupied with the vote to issue any major objections.
Fresh protests erupted over Netanyahu’s decision on Wednesday. We’ll be watching to see how this impacts US-Israel relations moving forward, though the White House has already pledged to work with Gallant’s successor.