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Russia/Ukraine
We’re living in a time of record-high conflict, a level of violence not seen since World War II. The past four years have been marred by deadly battles in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, and beyond, with approximately 14% of the planet’s population now impacted by war.
While the more than 120 million people displaced by conflict have acute needs of safety, shelter, food, and education, there are needs unseen that too frequently go untreated.
A mental health crisis
In an unprecedented assessment this summer, UNICEF reported that 100% of children in Gaza are in need of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS.) While the pending peace deal could put an end to the physical violence, the road to true wellness will be long and complicated for all those who have survived.
Globally, there are an estimated 66 million people in humanitarian crises living with mental health conditions. And of the less than 0.029% of global GDP that goes to humanitarian assistance, only 2% of that amount goes to mental health services.
If untreated, the impacts of this trauma can contribute to higher rates of depression and anxiety, learning loss and disrupted education, and even self harm. Suicide is the top cause of death globally for people ages 15-29.
A Greentree plan grows
Last November, United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed urged a gathering of more than 50 mental health experts to focus on this issue.
“We need to put the head back on the body” in our approach to humanitarian aid, DSG Mohammed told us in her closing remarks. Treating the needs of the body is only one part of the equation—caring for the mind is a large part of keeping a person well.
Now, a year after that event, the United Nations has launched the Greentree Acceleration Plan, named for the venue where the retreat was convened. With $13.2 million in backing from the Wellcome Trust, the UN is embarking on two pilot programs, one in Chad where 40% of the population requires aid, and the other in Lebanon.
The goal is to find scalable solutions to bring better mental health care to more countries, communities, and conflict zones around the world.
A day for awareness
Today, on World Mental Health day, I wanted to share with you a conversation I recently had with actress Carey Mulligan and activist Jin Dawood on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, during an event where the Greentree Acceleration Plan was announced.
Mulligan is an ambassador for War Child, a UK-based charity that provides mental health care, education, and support to kids in conflict zones worldwide. Dawood, herself a former refugee and survivor of civil war in Syria, founded Peace Therapist to provide digital MHPSS services to children in Arabic, Kurdish, Turkish, and English.
Both shared personal stories of children in crisis they’ve met through their work, and the importance of raising awareness for mental health support long after a war has ended.
Over dozens of trips to troubled regions, Mulligan has seen first-hand the impact that MHPSS can have on a child’s life. “Part of that is giving children the right to a childhood,” she said. “But also, you cannot expect a country to rebuild itself if children are illiterate and traumatized.”
As Dawood explained, “That's why it's so important for people to be able to have therapy, to be able to rebuild themselves from inside and start the inner peace, and also contribute to building peace in the world.”
Watch my full conversation with Carey Mulligan and Jin Dawood above..
Everybody thinks President Emmanuel Macron is on political life support, but Eurasia Group's Mujtaba Rahman has spent a week in Paris and he thinks Macron has a way out.
I'm standing in front of La Rotonde, which is the restaurant where Emmanuel Macron celebrated his win in 2017. That seems like a really long time ago given the absolute political and fiscal chaos that's engulfed France and Macron's presidency over the course of the last one-plus years. Tomorrow, Emmanuel Macron is going to appoint his fourth prime minister in a year and a bit. And even though we don't know who the identity of that prime minister is, here's why I think it might stick.
Macron came very close to pulling an early election this week. In that focused mind, Macron doesn't want an early election, and really no MPs in Parliament wants an early election, except the far right, because they are France's most popular party and they would win that early election. In combination with the fact Macron is now willing to potentially reverse an increase in the retirement age, there may be enough there for restless MPs to do a deal and put this crisis to bed.
Now, the crisis doesn't just matter for France, it also matters for Europe. France is the Euro area's second-largest economy, it's a G7 country, a nuclear power, and across all the major foreign policy issues of our time, the French have been a leading player. It's about the global role he's playing in the world at a time when the US is withdrawing and there are existential and important questions hanging over the future of Gaza, the future of Ukraine where he has been a leading voice. The outcome of this crisis matters way beyond France's borders. It's also going to have really important implications for the rest of the world.
Boys wearing red caps with the slogan "Strong Czechia" in front of a poster of Andrej Babiš, Czech billionaire, former prime minister and leader of ANO party, during a campaign rally in Prague.
As you read this, the Czech Republic is heading into an election that could shift the foreign policy of one of Ukraine’s staunchest backers in the EU.
The frontrunner in pre-election polls, with about 30% support, is populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, a former Prime Minister who was in power from 2017 to 2021.
Babiš, whose ANO party (which stands for “Action of Dissatisfied Citizens” but also spells the Czech word for “Yes”) has shifted rightward in recent years – blasting Brussels’ green initiatives and immigration policies, while also raising questions about the extent of the Czech Republic’s support for Ukraine.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Prague has been at the forefront of efforts to arm Kyiv, leading a NATO-wide ammunition initiative and sending the country tens of millions of dollars in government support annually.
Babiš himself is a controversial figure. A Slovak-born businessman who made his fortune in the agriculture industry, he has been plagued by accusations that he collaborated with the secret police during the Communist period, and has been investigated for EU subsidy fraud and conflict of interest.
Sometimes called the “Czech Trump” – his supporters often sport bright red “Czechia Strong” hats – Babiš has an uncanny ability to identify and express what Czechs are upset about.
“He is like a sunflower,” says Jan Rafael Lupoměský, a former Czech presidential adviser and founder of LupoKorn, a regional political analysis outfit. “He is always turning his head towards the sun of political support from unhappy citizens.”
These days, he has much to orient himself towards. The Czech economy, once the “tiger” of the former Eastern bloc, has stagnated. Concerns about the war in Ukraine are rising. Although almost no one wishes to see a Russian victory – Czechs still remember the devastating Soviet invasion of their own country in 1968 – nearly two-thirds of the country now worries that the conflict will drag on indefinitely. Just 44% hope for an outright Ukrainian victory.
Immigration is also an issue, in part because of uneasiness about EU asylum policies, but also because of the Ukraine war. The Czech Republic, with just 11 million people, has absorbed the highest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita of any country in the world.
Faced with all of this, the current government, a hodgepodge of center-right parties led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, has dropped the ball.
After taking power in 2021 almost accidentally – Babiš’s party actually won the vote but had no viable coalition partners – Fiala promised good government and big reforms after a slew of pandemic-era upheavals under Babiš. But while Fiala’s strong support for Ukraine was popular, he accomplished little else, especially on the economy.
“They didn't change anything,” says Lupoměský. “They didn't put through any important reforms. They just didn't meet expectations.”
They have also failed to communicate well. Although most Czech support for Ukraine has been compensated by EU or NATO – and has boosted the country’s elite arms industry – Babiš has argued that that support for Ukraine comes at the expense of putting “Czechia First.”
As a result, Fiala’s approval rating has plunged to barely 30%, one of the lowest in Europe. Support for his coalition trails ANO by more than ten points among likely voters.
Babiš will need partners to govern. For all his political wiles, he has never cracked 30% support. That means he’ll need to form a coalition. The roster of potential post-election tie-ups in this election includes several virulently anti-EU and anti-NATO parties that have surged on both the far left and far right.
And given Babiš’s increasing coziness with Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico – the EU’s two most Russia-friendly leaders – that has stoked concerns about where he might take Czech foreign policy in an EU that relies on unanimity for key decisions.
Still, Lupoměský says, Babiš is more pragmatic than ideological, and that could end up leading to more continuity than many fear.
“He's a businessman,” he notes, “and his business is mostly in Western countries, so he has a big personal interest in keeping those good relations.”
The polls close on Saturday evening. Which way will the Czech sunflower turn after that?
First there was the Russian drone in Poland. Then Romania. Then Russian jets flew into Estonian airspace, while some unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) shut down Denmark’s airports.
In recent weeks, Russian aircraft have been illegally violating European airspace with greater frequency and boldness.
What are the Europeans going to do about it? One possible answer emerged last week, when the European Commission announced it would explore building a so-called “drone wall,” an air defense system involving radars, sensors, and missiles that aims to detect and destroy drones that pass through Europe’s eastern borders.
One former NATO leader suggested the wall could be operational within a year.
The idea for a drone wall, though, will test Europe’s – and, more broadly, NATO’s – ability to agree on the system’s costs, deployment, and even its purpose. The subject will be one of the hottest items on the agenda as European Union leaders meet in Copenhagen this week to discuss the continent’s collective defense.
Eurasia Group’s Europe Director Jan Techau said there are a few different paths that Europe could take. It could build a drone wall along NATO’s eastern flank that would involve shooting down UAVs, create a system that merely jams Russian drones to make them inoperable, or simply boost drone defenses as part of a broader effort to update Europe’s air defenses across the continent.
“The big, decisive question is,” said Techau, “when the EC’s defense chief Andrius Kubilius brings the defense ministers together in Brussels for an EU defense ministers meeting, how much support will [the drone wall] get?”
Some, such as German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, are already pouring cold water on the idea, arguing this week that it would take at least three or four years to build such a defense mechanism.
“Drone defense, of course,” he said, “but not by a drone wall.”
There are also questions over the rules of engagement for any new anti-drone defenses. If a Russian UAV enters NATO airspace, it’s “fair game” for a NATO country to shoot it down, per Techau – Poland did just that last month. But some say the system should aim beyond that.
At Eurasia Group’s Europe Summit last month, former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder suggested shooting down Russian drones before they enter NATO territory, creating dicey dilemmas.
“What if Europeans shot down Russian drones in Ukrainian airspace? Would that make them a party in the war?” Techau questioned. “So far, most Europeans fear that the answer is yes. So they won’t do it. Which is why Daalder’s suggestion sounds unrealistic to me.”
Still, the spate of recent drone incursions in Eastern Europe – as well as the increasing role of UAVs in modern warfare – has created urgency around the need for more effective defenses against unmanned aircraft.
“Something will happen. There will be more drone defense. There’s a greater sense of urgency,” said Techau. “Now the big question is whether it can be a pan-European effort, or whether it will be individual national efforts.”
Hard Numbers: Earthquake rocks the Philippines, UN expands Haiti mission, Moscow cuts military budget, & More
A drone view of rescue workers conducting a rescue operation at a collapsed building in the aftermath of a 6.9-magnitude earthquake in Bogo, Cebu, Philippines, on October 1, 2025.
69: A 6.9-magnitude earthquake struck off Cebu, Philippines, late Tuesday night, killing at least 69 and injuring hundreds. The quake caused landslides, building collapses, and power outages in a region still recovering from recent storms.
5,500: The UN has approved expanding its Haiti security mission into a 5,500-strong force to combat rampant gang violence. Backed by the US and Panama, the decision will add to the current 1,000 officers, mostly from Kenya, already deployed to support Haitian police.
$156 billion: Russia’s military budget next year is set to be $156 billion, down from the $163 billion this year, marking the first drop since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Still, the military budget remains high – it’s nearly four times larger than in 2021. To help fund the war effort, the government is also set to increase the value-added tax from 20% to 22%.
15: South African opposition leader Julius Malema – who heads the far-left, black nationalist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – was found guilty of publicly discharging a firearm, an offense that carries a maximum sentence of 15 years. Malema fired 14 to 15 rounds in front of 20,000 supporters during an EFF celebration in the Eastern Cape in 2018.
For years, US policy toward Russia’s war in Ukraine has swung between extremes. Under Biden, “all stick, no carrot.” Under Trump, “all carrot, no stick.” Ian Bremmer says both approaches failed to change Vladimir Putin’s calculus.
What’s different now? Trump himself admits his personal diplomacy with Putin has failed—a rare concession. Instead, he’s pushing oil pressure: urging Hungary, Turkey, and India to cut Russian crude purchases, and exploring deals with Ukraine on drones and long-range missiles.
“The US is closer today to the Ukrainian and European position than Trump was months ago,” Ian notes. “That’s a shift worth watching.”