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Russia/Ukraine

Nobelist Oleksandra Matviichuk on Russia-Ukraine war reshaping world order
- YouTube

Matviichuk highlighted that Ukraine is confronting not just Russia but an entire authoritarian bloc, including Iran, China, North Korea, and Syria. "Ukraine is not a goal. Ukraine is a tool how to break international order," she stated, underscoring that the conflict represents a broader challenge to global democratic values.

When asked about the future of US support, particularly in light of Donald Trump's re-election, she expressed uncertainty but affirmed Ukraine's resolve: "We don't know what will be the policy of the next president's administration, but what we know for sure is that Ukrainians will continue our fight for freedom. We have no other choice."

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Rebuilding post-election trust in the age of AI
- YouTube

In a GZERO Global Stage discussion at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum, Teresa Hutson, Corporate Vice President at Microsoft, reflected on the anticipated impact of generative AI and deepfakes on global elections. Despite widespread concerns, she noted that deepfakes did not significantly alter electoral outcomes. Instead, Hutson highlighted a more subtle effect: the erosion of public trust in online information, a phenomenon she referred to as the "liar's dividend."

"What has happened as a result of deepfakes is... people are less confident in what they're seeing online. They're not sure. The information ecosystem is a bit polluted," Hutson explained. She emphasized the need for technological solutions like content credentials and content provenance to help restore trust by verifying the authenticity of digital content.

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Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un attend a state reception in Pyongyang, North Korea, in June, 2024.

Sputnik/Vladimir Smirnov/Pool via REUTERS

North Korea's state-controlled news agency KCNA announced on Tuesday that the country has ratified a strategic partnership agreement that allows Russia to use North Korean troops to help push Ukrainians from Russia’s Kursk region.

Ukrainian, US, NATO, and South Korean officials have warned in recent days that Russia has amassed a force of about 50,000 troops to try to evict Ukrainian forces from Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions – and they say the force includes 10,000-12,000 North Koreans.

The presence of North Korean soldiers could help Russia push forward with its offensive in Ukraine’s East. But beyond the ability of the North Koreans to draw Ukrainian fire away from Russian forces, it’s not clear how effective they will be on the battlefield. None of them has significant combat experience, and the Ukrainians they will be deployed to attack have been fighting in their country’s Donbas region for a decade.

In addition, throughout this war, Russian forces have faced command-and-control issues. It remains to be seen how Russian commanders can effectively coordinate real-time battlefield maneuvers with large numbers of non-Russian-speaking troops.

Trump's plans for policy & personnel
- YouTube

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Everyone, of course, talking about the incoming Trump administration. What it's going to mean in terms of personnel and in terms of policy. The latter, more important, but informed very significantly by the former. Couple of things I would say.

First of all, on the personnel side, clearly most important point here and very different from the first administration is that loyalty matters immensely. Trump is angriest not at Democrats, angriest at people that used to work for him who have now flipped, who are calling him a fascist. Some of the worst things that have been said about Trump in the first administration came from senior people that he put in that weren't loyal. They may have been long-term establishment Republicans and adults, but now he couldn't be bothered with them in the slightest and wants them to know it.

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The challenges of peacekeeping amid rising global conflicts
- YouTube

In a GZERO Global Stage discussion at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum, Dr. Comfort Ero, President and CEO of the International Crisis Group, shed light on the increasing elusiveness of global peace amid rising conflicts worldwide. She pointed out a "crisis of peacemaking," noting that comprehensive peace processes and settlements have become rare, with the last significant one being in Colombia in 2016.

"We are in the era of big power rivalry and a multipolar world where there are more actors piling in... competing interests, competing visions," Dr. Ero explained. She emphasized that traditional tools for nudging conflicting parties to the negotiation table, such as sanctions, are no longer effective, and the United Nations Security Council is becoming increasingly dysfunctional.

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Russia's President Vladimir Putin talks to U.S. President Donald Trump during their bilateral meeting at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany July 7, 2017.

REUTERS/Carlos Barria

The Kremlin is denying reports that Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone last Thursday. During the conversation, the US president-elect reportedly warned the Russian leader not to escalate the war in Ukraine while reminding him of the US military’s significant presence in Europe.

But Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Monday said such reports were “pure fiction,” while Trump’s team declined to comment on his “private calls” when questioned by the BBC.

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The 2024 Paris Peace Forum faces a dysfunctional global order
- YouTube

The 7th annual Paris Peace Forum is getting underway, convening diplomats, academics, and private sector leaders tasked with finding solutions to mounting global crises before conflicts erupt. Spoiler alert: That mission has not been accomplished.

The Forum’s theme is “Wanted: A Functioning Global Order,” and will focus on topics such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, funding for climate action, and countering disinformation and digital attacks to restore trust in cyberspace.

These conversations are particularly fraught following key political developments last week—Donald Trump’s clear victory in the US presidential election, and the collapse of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government following months of economic crisis. Both of those signal more unpredictable times to come for European politics.

GZERO’s Tony Maciulis is on the ground at the Paris Peace Forum for our Global Stage series, and interviewed Justin Vaisse, the organization’s founder and Director General. Top of mind for Vaisse, of course, was Trump’s election and what it means for Europe.

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