Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
News
Hard Numbers: VW goes on strike, Guinean soccer violence turns deadly, Scholz pledges Ukraine aid, US breaks travel record
FILE PHOTO: A man wearing an IG Metall (Industrial Union of Metalworkers) scarf holds a banner with the Volkswagen logo, as workers gather to strike against planned cuts to wages and possible factory closures, in Hanover, Germany, December 2, 2024. Picture taken with long exposure.
$19 billion: Tens of thousands of German Volkswagen workers launched strikes at multiple car plants on Monday, protesting €18 billion ($19 billion) in company budget cuts that resulted in three plant closures and pension cuts. Volkswagen is grappling with a 64% drop in third-quarter profits and declining market demand in China.
56: Fifty-six people, including many children, died in southeast Guinea after a disagreement over a refereeing decision turned violent at a soccer match held to honor military leader Mamady Doumbouya. Opposition group National Alliance for Change and Democracy blamed the ruling junta for failing to keep people safe while organizing tournaments to bolster political support for their leader in advance of a promised presidential election, which they say violates election law.
680 million: German Chancellor Olaf Scholzpledged $680 million in aid to Ukraine during his visit to Kyiv on Monday, his first trip to the city in over two years. New German military equipment is scheduled to be delivered this month amid questions about the long-term viability of Western support for Ukraine with the incoming administration in Washington.
3 million: US airport security cleared a record 3 million travelers on Sunday after the Thanksgiving holiday that traditionally sees families reuniting from far and wide. So, pretty smooth at security, but plenty of travelers faced frustration from there: Airlines canceled 120 flights and delayed over 6,800.Syrian rebels clash with Kurds as Assad’s backers spring into action
Rebel forces seized Mengh Airbase and the city of Tel Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside on December 1, 2024, following clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces.
In case anyone has forgotten just how complicated Syria’s civil war always was, the recent drama around Aleppo escalated on Monday as the Syrian National Army, a group backed by Turkey, attacked US-backed Kurdish groups near the city.
Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the formerly al-Qaida-linked Islamist group at the forefront of the recent rebel offensive in Aleppo, has reportedly ordered Kurdish militias to leave the area altogether and go eastward to Rojava, a de facto autonomous Kurdish area in northeastern Syria.
Aren’t the Kurds against the Assad regime, too? Yes, but that’s not the beef. HTS works with the Turkish proxies and relies on Ankara for political support in high-level negotiations to end the war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is angling for an advantageous position on the war’s aftermath and said his “greatest wish” was “for the instability that has been going on for 13 years to end.”
For Turkey, that means both weakening Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and cutting the Kurds down to size, as it has long-standing problems with Kurdish separatists at home.
Don’t forget, Turkey is also a US ally — a NATO member, in fact — so urging its proxies to fight US proxies in a theatre where Russian forces also actively operate causes headaches in Washington. Russian warplanes bombed rebel-held areas of Aleppo on Monday, not far from where Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 that strayed over the border in 2015. Quite an explosive position for a lame-duck US president.
Speaking of proxies… Iran-backed militias crossed into Syria from Iraq to help shore up Assad’s counterattack as well. Assad will be glad for that help as the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group Hezbollah, once a major pillar of support for Assad’s regime, said Monday it would not deploy fighters to Syria right now. The group is still regrouping after getting mauled by Israel and is warily watching as last week’s ceasefire in that conflict appears to be breaking down already.
Where is the US in all this? Washington had reportedly held talks before the Aleppo offensive with the UAE about lifting sanctions on Syria in exchange for Assad distancing himself from Iran and Russia. That seems unlikely now that Assad’s back is against the wall and he needs all the help he can get. Beyond milquetoast calls for de-escalation, Washington has thus far kept its cards close to its vest.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier leaves following the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Nov. 27, 2024.
To stop this bill from becoming law, lawmakers must call and pass a vote of no-confidence in government and, given the unpopularity of both Barnier and the bill with populist critics on both the left and right, that’s what next for France’s latest political meltdown. Facing near-universal condemnation from the left, Barnier has been relying on support from the right-wing populists of the Rassemblement Nationale. The party’s true leader, Marine Le Pen, made her party’s intention clear with a post on social media that accused Barnier of failing to listen to the 11 million voters who backed her party at the last election.
Expect Barnier’s government to collapse on Wednesday. It’s unclear how many weeks or months it will take to form the next French government and to produce a budget that can steady the nerves of investors who’ve become increasingly squeamish about France’s future.
Supporters of the radical right Alliance for Uniting Romanians wave Romanian flags following the first exit polls, at the party’s campaign headquarters, on the day of the parliamentary election, in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 1, 2024.
However, the country still needs to hold a crucial presidential runoff on Dec. 8 – following first-round results from Nov. 24. Afterthe surprise first-place finish of populist candidate Calin Georgescu – an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin – Romania’s Constitutional Court ordered a recount amid accusations of electoral interference by Moscow andTikTok, throwing the election in doubt.
On Monday, however, the court unanimously upheld the first-round result. Georgescu now faces center-right contender Elena Lasconi. If he wins, it could strain relations with Brussels and weaken support for Ukraine – which Georgescu has called “an invented state” – while a Lasconi win would reinforce Romania’s pro-EU position. While the prime minister is the head of government,the president has key decision-making powers in national security and foreign policy matters and nominates prime ministerial appointments, with the power to dissolve parliament if their choices are twice rejected.U.S. President Joe Biden stands with his son Hunter Biden, who earlier in the day was found guilty on all three counts in his criminal gun charges trial, after President Biden arrived at the Delaware Air National Guard Base in New Castle, Delaware, U.S., June 11, 2024.
So much for the rule of law. After previously promising to allow the justice system to handle Hunter Biden’s federal felony gun and tax convictions, outgoing President Joe Biden instead issued a "full and unconditional pardon" to his son on Sunday. “I hope Americans will understand why a father and a President would come to this decision,” Biden said, noting that he felt his son was singled out for political reasons.
The younger Biden’s serious problems with drugs, infidelity, and questionable overseas business deals were frequent targets for Republicans over the last four years, including as part of an aborted attempt to impeach the president. He’ll now avoid possibly decades behind bars, though federal sentencing guidelines were expected to call for less time.
President-elect Donald Trump responded to the pardon by posting on social media, “Does the Pardon given by Joe to Hunter include the J-6 Hostages, who have now been imprisoned for years?” (Nope). Trump is calling the kettle orange when it comes to familial clemency: He pardoned his son-in-law's father Charles Kushner after the 2020 election and just appointed him ambassador to France. But Biden is singing a similar to tune to Trump by pointing to the politicization of the justice system.
Rebel factions successfully seized control of the city of Aleppo, Syria, on November 30, 2024, after intense clashes and fierce battles with Assad regime forces.
Anti-government forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad launched a shock attack on the largest city, Aleppo, on Saturday. Amid the ongoing fighting, rebels have seized the city’s airport and military academy and struck the entrance of Aleppo University Hospital,killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Led by the Salafi jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a terrorist organization with past ties to al-Qaida, now often but not always backed by Turkey – insurgents claim to control territory across Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. They are demanding that US-aligned Kurdish forces retreat from neighborhoods they hold in Aleppo.
Assad has ordered his forces to counterattack and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Damascus on Sunday. Russia also expressed support for its ally and claimed its forces in Syria had engaged with the rebels.
Why now? Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon seems to have helped tip the balance, according to Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
“HTS has been observing the shifting regional dynamics and agitating to take advantage of Assad’s relative weakness for months. With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and Iran and its proxies effectively targeted by Israel, HTS felt the time was ripe to strike,” he said.
Peker elaborated that Ankara will back the rebels as long as their offensive also serves Turkish interests, whileRussia has lent what military support it can to Assad. “Erdogan will not want to oust Assad, rather to weaken him to both normalize Turkey-Syria relations and pave the way for a settlement to the 13-year-old Syrian civil war,” he said.
What about the US? The conflict creates a dilemma for Washington which under President Barack Obama supported rebel groups fighting Assad’s brutal dictatorship, but HTS’s fundamentalist roots are cause for concern. Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted the quandary: “Should [the US] be cheering the opposition taking over Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, or should they actually worry about the city falling under Islamist rule?”
So far,the Biden administration has distanced itself from the offensive, calling for de-escalation and a political solution – but we’re watching how long Washington can stay on the sidelines if the conflict escalates.
Hard Numbers: Notre Dame’s stones gleam after cleaning, Trump threatens yuge tariffs, Iceland gets new gov, Vaccine promises AIDS end
Participants make their way past the Notre-Dame Cathedral as they attend the 13th edition of the stand up Nautic Paddle race on the river Seine in Paris, France, December 1, 2024.
42,000: Workers restoring Paris’ Notre Dame Cathedral after the fire that ravaged it five years ago had to clean 42,000 square meters of stone. They used special techniques to minimize damage to the original masonry in the process and the results are stunning: See it for yourself: The medieval cathedral reopens to the public on Dec. 8.
100: President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose 100% tariffs on goods imported from BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, as well Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE), should the organization try to issue its own currency or displace the dollar’s place in world trade. It’s an odd threat, as some members – namely Russia and Iran – are already so heavily sanctioned that trade with the US is non-existent, while others – Brazil, Egypt, and the UAE – are major US allies.
15: Iceland’s Social Democrats gained 15 seats in the Althing – one of the world’s oldest parliaments – and will unseat the ruling conservatives after seven years of power following Saturday’s snap election. It’s yet another example of the anti-establishment trend few democracies seem able to escape in this election-studded year.
2: A twice-yearly vaccine against HIV/AIDS has proven 100% effective against contracting the virus, which a UN report for World AIDS Day on Sunday called a “historic crossroads” in the fight to end the epidemic. Generic versions of the drug will be available in 120 low-income countries, mostly in Africa and Asia, but the manufacturer has not approved generic patents for Latin America, which may represent a crucial weak spot in distribution.