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Climate
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
North Korea ratified a major defense treaty with Russia. What do both sides hope to gain?
Well, the North Koreans really want mutual defense. They are helping the Russians out in their time of need, sending a whole bunch of troops, things that the North Koreans have in surplus and don't really value and the Russians can really use right now. And they would love to see Russian troops in North Korea. They'd love to see that appear as mutual defense and give the North Koreans a lot more leverage so they are not forced to be supplicants in Beijing, and they can also be more assertive versus South Korea, Japan, and others. This is a major escalation in this war and a big problem geopolitically.
The Russians, of course, are just looking for more troops, more ammunition, more ability to fight, and they are in a much, much stronger position to get terms that they want from the United States and from the Ukrainians. Especially now that the US has elected somebody that says he really, really wants to end the war. Putin will be like, "Okay, but here are the things that I need if you want me to end the war." Trump's incented to give him a lot more of those than almost anybody in NATO right now.
Japan's PM survived a rare parliamentary vote. How will he tackle the country's sluggish economy?
Well, he is saying that he's going to do a lot more stimulus, and so basically blow out the budget. Exactly, not where he has been historically. Japan's economy is pretty flat. Interest rates are close to zero, though they've been pushing them up a bit, historically surprising, recently. It's not like companies are all itching to get into Japan. Their demography is falling apart, and most people are pushing their production elsewhere, so including Japanese companies. So it's a real challenge, and Ishiba is going to be there maybe for a year. This is a very weak LDP coalition government.
What do I expect to come from COP29, the new climate summit happening in Baku?
Well, the Americans are attending with their knees cut off because Trump is going to be president in a couple months and he will pull the Americans out of the Paris Climate Accord once again. The trajectory on post-carbon investment and the prices coming down at scale for the Americans and for everyone in the world is already way too well-developed to pull back, and that's a good thing. But the US is going to be focused more on additional permitting and for oil and gas and production increases. Even beyond the record levels that they are right now under the Biden administration. They'll go further.
And so it's really, the Americans are going to be pretty marginalized at this summit, and the Chinese are driving the bus. They're producing a lot more coal, of course, but at the same time, they're also producing a hell of a lot more post-carbon renewables at global levels. In other words, China's doing at global scale what Texas is doing in the United States. And that is making them much more important as decision-makers.
A person takes photos of the waves as Typhoon Krathon approaches in Kaohsiung, Taiwan October 2, 2024.
2: At least two people are dead in Taiwan, and 70 injured, from weather attributed to Typhoon Krathon, which is expected to make landfall on the densely populated west coast of the Island on Thursday. Thousands have been evacuated from areas at risk of floods or landslides. One elderly man fell off a ladder while pruning a tree near his house in preparation for the storm, and another crashed into fallen rocks while driving. Western Taiwan is usually sheltered from major storms by its east coast mountain ranges and Taipei has put 40,000 troops on standby for expected rescue operations.
2: Two high-profile Beninese political figures were arrested on Tuesday on suspicion of plotting a coup against President Patrice Talon, allegedly having attempted to bribe the head of the Republican Guard. Benin is one of the most stable democracies in West Africa — even the communist dictatorship that ruled 1975-1990 handed over power peacefully — and was not previously believed to be at risk of extralegal regime change.
40: Vietnamese media reported Wednesday that some Vietnamese fishermen were severely injured in a clash near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea after around 40 foreign sailors boarded their vessels and beat the crews with iron bats on Sunday. The hull numbers of the alleged aggressors correspond with local Chinese maritime patrols, and Beijing confirmed an operation against Vietnamese fishermen near the Paracels but denied Hanoi’s version of events.
80: A long-forgotten US bomb dating back to World War II buried deep beneath a taxiway at Japan’s Miyazaki Airport suddenly exploded on Wednesday, causing a large crater and the cancellation of at least 80 flights. No one was harmed, thankfully, though hundreds of unexploded US bombs remain buried in Japan and are sometimes dug up during construction projects.Hard Numbers: Geoglyph spotting, AI revenue surge, CAPTCHAS solved, ByteDance’s chip hoard, Helene’s chip damage
A drone view shows an ancient geoglyph depicting a tree at the Nazca Lines archaeological area in Nazca, Peru, January 18, 2024.
303: Archaeologists have discovered 303 giant symbols carved into Peru’s Nazca Desert, thanks to artificial intelligence. The famous and mysterious Nazca geoglyphs are giant drawings in the ground, easily visible from high up — some are nearly 2,000 years old. The research team, led by Japan’s Yamagata University with help from IBM’s Watson Research Center, trained an AI model on existing geoglyphs to identify potentially undiscovered symbols.
11: AI companies are making money more quickly than previous waves of hyped-up software companies, according to a new data analysis from the payments company Stripe. It found that it took only 11 months for the top 100 highest-grossing privately held AI companies to make $1 million in annualized revenue as opposed to software-as-a-service companies in 2018, which took 15 months to hit that mark.
100: AI bots are now smart enough to solve 100% of those pesky traffic-image CAPTCHA — the ones put it in place to make sure you’re, you know, human. Thankfully, those images, known as Google’s ReCAPTCHA v2, are no longer industry standard. The newest version, reCAPTCHA v3, is an “invisible” test that tries to prove humanity based on how you interact with a given web page.
100,000: ByteDance reportedly has ordered 100,000 Ascend 910B chips from Huawei to aid the training of a new AI model. TikTok’s parent company also depends on Nvidia chips and Microsoft cloud services, but the new model will be mostly trained with chips from Huawei, a fellow Chinese tech giant. A ByteDance spokesperson refuted the report from Reuters, saying, “The entire premise here is wrong. No new model is being developed.”
70: Hurricane Helene has ravaged North Carolina, including a small town called Spruce Pine, which is home to 70% of the naturally occurring high-purity quartz. This kind of quartz is critical to the global semiconductor trade — used for crucibles, containers that can hold high-temperature materials, and other parts of chips themselves. The two companies there, Quartz Corp and Unimin, have temporarily halted operations — if they can’t get back up and running soon, delays could afflict the global chip supply chain.
Hard Numbers: UK buries coal, Austria’s far right surges, Le Pen faces trial, UN extends but doesn’t expand Haiti mission, Russia spends more on guns (less on butter)
A 'coal is dead' placard is seen during the demonstration. Activists from Friends Of The Earth and other environmental groups gathered outside the Royal Courts of Justice as the legal challenge to the Whitehaven coal mine in Cumbria begins.
142: After 142 years, the UK government closed the country’s last coal-fired power plant on Monday night. Coal power was a critical factor in the British-born Industrial Revolution of the 18th century, but it wasn’t until 1882 that the British opened the first public coal power plant. The closure is part of the government’s plan to generate 100% of Great Britain’s energy from renewable sources by 2030. Our favorite British coal story? How coal pollution changed the color of the Peppered Moths of Manchester.
29.2: Austria’s Freedom Party became the first far-right party to win an election in the country since World War II, after taking 29.2% of the vote in Sunday’s election by appealing to Austrians worried about immigration, inflation, and the Ukraine war. But it’s a familiar story in Europe these days: A far-right party takes a plurality of the vote, only to find that it lacks an obvious coalition partner to form a government. The incumbent Austrian People’s Party has said it will only work with the Freedom Party if party boss Herbert Kickl renounces any cabinet position. That’s a tough sell – Kickl says he wants to be chancellor.
9: Meanwhile, elsewhere in European right-wing news, Marine Le Pen, the former leader and top candidate of France’s National Rally party, began a nine-week trial in which she and two dozen other party officials are accused of misusing EU funds by using them to pay party staff for political work. Le Pen says the payments were legitimate. If convicted, she faces up to 10 years in prison, fines of several million euros, and possibly being deemed ineligible to run for office. She is considered a top contender in the 2027 presidential election.
1: The UN Security council agreed unanimously on Monday to authorize the UN-backed security force in Haiti for one more year. But a US proposal to make the mission – currently a Kenya-led volunteer force – into a formal UN peacekeeping operation was blocked by Russia and China, which said the current force needs more time to find its footing. Haiti, for its part, has called for a peacekeeping operation as the Kenyan-led force struggles to subdue the powerful gangs that have taken control over vast swathes of the capital.
25: Russia will boost defense spending by 25% next year, as Vladimir Putin doubles down both on his invasion of Ukraine and on the deeper militarization of the economy at home. Social spending, meanwhile, is set to fall by nearly 20%. Heavy spending on defense has helped to insulate Russia’s economy from the effects of Western sanctions, with GDP growing 3.6% last year and forecasters predicting a similar outcome this year. How secure is Putin? Read our recent piece on the endless ends of the Russian president.Hard Numbers: Helene hits hard, Zuckerberg enters the big leagues, US strikes Islamic State in Syria, Majority of Argentines live in poverty
Homes are leveled in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, U.S., September 27, 2024.
90: At least 90 people across the southeastern United States are dead in the wake of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall as a category 4 storm on Thursday. The high winds and storm surge destroyed an unknown number of homes and caused power outages for millions. The White House declared major disasters in Florida and North Carolina, allowing federal emergency management resources to flow to those states.
201 billion: Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly amassed a net worth of $201 billion, making him the fourth wealthiest person in the world after Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Bernard Arnault, whose assets all surpass $200 billion. For context, if you made $10,000 an hour, every hour for the last 2,024 years, you would still fall short of the mark with $177 billion.
37: US Central Command said Sunday that it had killed 37 Islamic State-linked operatives in two separate strikes in Syria this month. The first strike, on Sept. 16, killed 28 militants at an IS training ground in central Syria, while the second killed nine IS-affiliated militants in the northwest last Tuesday.
52.9: According to new government data, more than half of Argentines – a whopping 52.9% – lived below the poverty line during the first half of the year, the highest level in two decades. That’s up from 41.7% in the last half of 2023, with a 237% annual inflation rate driving much of the increase. President Javier Milei has managed to bring inflation somewhat more under control, but he is making unlikely promises to bring the rate down to 18% by the end of 2025.Moderator Rachel Ramirez, CNN; Dennis Francis, permanent representative of Trinidad and Tobago, president of the General Assembly for the 78th session; and Dr. Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, director of the Ocean Physics program at NASA
UNITED NATIONS – For the first time, the United Nations convened a high-level meeting to address the global threats posed by rising sea levels. Secretary-General António Guterres warned attendees on Wednesday that “rising seas mean a rising tide of misery.”
Nations define themselves by their territorial boundaries. But those participating in the high-level meeting were seeking to update international law to reflect the reality of a warming planet and sinking coastlines. The Permanent Representative of Trinidad and Tobago to the United Nations Dennis Francis described the mood as “one of consensus and solidarity.”
Astudy cited by the IPCC — the UN’s top climate change body — projected that the island nations of Tuvalu, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Nauru, and Kiribati may become completely uninhabitable by 2100. If that projection comes true, around 600,000 citizens will become climate refugees.
Creating a new global consensus is essential to address this crisis, but how does one convince people who live far inland, or climate change deniers, to care about this issue?
Francis described sea level rise as a “hydra” affecting “everything,” far more than just coastal and island communities. Displaced persons, food insecurity, and groundwater salinity are likely to affect much more than the roughly one billion who currently live in low-lying coastal areas.
In an interview with GZERO Media, Dr. Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer — who directs the NASA Sea Level Change Team — offered a simple answer: by using data for “clarity.” Even if someone doesn’t believe they’re sick, a fever doesn’t lie, she told us.
NASA released thisinteractive tool using previous tide gauges to predict future sea level rise scenarios through 2150. Spoiler: It’s not good.FILE PHOTO: The Three Mile Island Nuclear power plant is pictured from Royalton, Pennsylvania, U.S. May 30, 2017.
The nuclear plant on Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, home to one of the worst nuclear accidents in US history, is getting a second life, thanks to artificial intelligence.
Under a new, 20-year deal, Constellation Energy will restart the famed power plant, which closed in 2019, and sell the energy to Microsoft to fuel its data centers. This is an opportunity for the computing giant to meet its incredible demands for computer processing power required for its AI ambitions and do so with a so-called clean energy source. The White House and tech leaders recently discussed a plan to use more clean energy sources for AI data centers amid conflict between the government and private sector’s AI ambitions and climate goals. Still, it could take years for the plant to get inspected, licensed, and gain federal approval from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to restart.
The Electric Power Research Institute has estimated that data centers could consume 9% of US electricity annually by 2030, up from just 4% in 2023. In May, Microsoft also signed a deal with Brookfield Asset Management to deliver the tech company 10.5 gigawatts of new renewable energy between 2026 and 2030, a massive amount that The Verge remarked was equivalent to half of California’s wind and solar capacity.
Three Mile Island’s Unit 2 had a partial meltdown in 1979, but its Unit 1 was undamaged and remained operational until 2019, when it was shut down due to financial pressures. Constellation Energy told The Wall Street Journal that Unit 1 was “arguably the best-performing reactor in America.” There are currently 94 active reactors in the country.