Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Republican candidate for US Senate Bernie Moreno celebrates his victory over Sherrod Brown at his election night party at the La Centre Conference & Banquet Facility in Westlake, Ohio, a Cleveland suburb, on November 5, 2024.
Republicans regain control of the Senate, and could go on to take it all
Republicans retook control of the Senate on Tuesday night, with crucial victories in West Virginia and Ohio giving the GOP at least 51 seats in the upper chamber.
Republican Jim Justice was projected to win in West Virginia, snatching an open seat that was vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin, who was a Democrat before becoming an independent. In Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno was projected to win against incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
The GOP needed just two seats to flip the Senate, and could still increase their majority with results still coming in from other competitive states: Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
That said, there are not enough open seats for the GOP to reach the 60-vote threshold that is necessary to advance most legislation, meaning they’ll still have to work with Democrats on most initiatives.
Meanwhile, control of the House remains up in the air. Out of 435 seats up for grabs, Republicans have won 198 so far, while Democrats have won 180. It could take days or weeks to get the full results.
Aubrey and Taylor Endicott cast their votes while their children, from left, Sterling, 5, Adelaide, 3, and Lincoln, 7, wait patiently under the voting tables at Shawnee Heights Middle School on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.
What to expect when the US is expecting
In making her final pitch to American voters before 75,000 attendees on the National Mall, Vice President Kamala Harris closed by declaring: “The United States of America is the greatest idea humanity ever devised.” While undoubtedly hyperbolic, Harris’ remarks point to the heart of what is at stake in the US election: For the US and other countries with elected leaders, Tuesday’s election represents a referendum on the future of democracy. Will it come away battered, or will it remain intact?
Harris hopes American voters place system over self – rights over kitchen table issues. Only with hindsight will her campaign find out whether this was a winning strategy.
Still, one of Europe’s most frequently repeated questions about the US election is whether we will see a repeat of Jan. 6, 2021. Watching Americans climb their Capitol building shocked the international audience. While observers abroad may not fully agree with Harris’ declaration, seeing the fissures in the US democratic system laid bare that Wednesday in January shifted perceptions of what was possible in America. If the US could come under attack from within, where next? If the US could not uphold its democratic promise, who could?
Although many Americans have hoped to tuck aside the storming of the US Capitol as a 2020 election “one-off,” the sentiment of that day has lingered. Former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, routinely claim that the 2020 election was stolen and that Trump never lost. At a Pennsylvania rally over the weekend, Trump lamented that he “shouldn’t have left” office in 2020. Three years after the Jan. 6 riot, polling found that roughly two-thirds of Republicans still did not believe President Joe Biden was legitimately elected, a proportion that has grown since 2021.
According to the Brennan Center for Justice, “extensive research reveals that fraud is very rare, voter impersonation is virtually nonexistent, and many instances of alleged fraud are, in fact, mistakes by voters or administrators.”
Yet, at his final major rally at Madison Square Garden, Trump warned his supporters, “We must defeat Kamala Harris and stop her radical left agenda with a landslide that is too big to rig.”
This leaving open the door to the risk of fraud, a stolen election, and “a rig” – whether valid or not – makes clear that should Trump lose when all the votes are counted, he will not go quietly. Nor will his supporters.
Trump is right to point out that the margin of victory this week will be pivotal for what happens next. Democracy is a system in which groups lose elections and accept the election results. Losers consent to being losers in any given election because they believe they will have the opportunity to participate in the next cycle. Losers withdraw this consent, however, when they come to believe that the institutional framework will not allow them to become winners – the system is rigged against them.
With the 2020 election still so salient, Trump and his supporters are primed to interpret any small loss in today’s election as evidence of the big rig. A narrow margin of victory that delivers Harris 270 electoral college votes likely represents the most volatile outcome of today’s election. For those forces unleashed in 2020 and still itching for a fight, a small Harris victory – perceived by them as improbable – is an easy mark. A wide margin of victory for Harris presents its own potential for criticism, especially as both aggregate national and swing state polling have consistently been so close. But should Harris pull off a meaningful polling surprise, it may suck the air out of the fraud argument and deflate the Trump world.
Given that Trump is not currently president and does not hold the reins of office, a replay of Jan. 6 is remote, but a flood of legal cases and calls for recounts is certain. Disturbances at courthouses and state government buildings should also be expected. Challenges within Congress around vote certification, especially should Republicans retain the House and regain the Senate, will be set in motion. And where there is disaffection, as there is in this post-pandemic, hyper-polarized political moment in the US, political violence cannot be ruled out.
We are in for a wild finish. What happens between today and the full results, and between the full results and Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025, will be fluid. Many ideas are at stake, not the least of which is the foundational idea of democracy itself. As the US votes, the world holds its breath.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.
editsharetrending_upHow AI could still impact the US election
Americans in 50 states and Washington, DC, are headed to the polls today to vote for the next president of the United States. While neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump has given much attention to artificial intelligence on the campaign trail — and AI hasn’t completely disrupted the election process as some experts feared — there are still important questions surrounding AI and the election.
For one, could AI-generated disinformation or deepfakes sow chaos that affects the results of the election? The hours and days ahead — both as Americans vote and as local officials count the vote — are crucial.
Earlier this year, election security experts and officials warned that AI-generated information could flood the campaign trial. While some has surfaced — including a fake Joe Bidenrobocall during New Hampshire’s primary and when Elon Musk shared an AI-generated video mocking Harris on his platform, X — its impact hasn’t been widespread.
Meanwhile, the US intelligence community has been proactive in identifying when foreign actors used AI to carry out influence operations. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence issued a statement in September noting that foreign countries such as China, Iran, and Russia have used AI to target voters about the election and political issues, such as immigration and the US-Gaza conflict.
But the most sensitive time for disinformation may still be ahead. “If it's extremely close, that gives more license for disinformation to run around because it’s easier to believe,” said Scott Bade, a senior geo-technology analyst with Eurasia Group. While fake information might not be AI-generated, he said, there could be something that tricks people and goes viral, such as an AI-generated video or image purporting to show fraud at a polling station.
Further, voting rights groups have issued warnings that Spanish-language voters are seeing more AI-generated misinformation about the election than are English speakers. This language gap could cause additional confusion at a time when the Latino vote has become a central point of intrigue in the election, especially after a comedian at a recent Trump rally made racist comments about Puerto Rico.
The election results will also impact how AI policy is shaped for the next four years — a critical time for this emerging technology. Trump’s approach has emphasized deregulation. Trump has criticized the CHIPS Act, under which the US has given subsidies to foreign companies like TSMC and Samsung to build in the US and cement America’s chip advantage over China. Trump wants to be seen as tough on China but prefers tariffs rather than subsidies.
“Under Trump, funding for AI research would likely prioritize military applications and national security, reflecting his America First agenda,” said Esteban Ponce de León, a resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, “whereas, Harris aims to direct funding toward societal challenges like health care disparities and climate change.”
Harris would likely continue Biden’s legacy on artificial intelligence, continuing to roll out incremental rules to rein in the tech industry if she becomes president, but her ability to push through a more serious AI agenda depends on the makeup of Congress — and, if polling is to be believed, Democrats are longshots to take the Senate even if the House and presidency are within reach.
Even if artificial intelligence hasn’t been front and center thus far this election cycle, there’s no guarantee it won’t still be. And the dam has broken, which means AI will be an unavoidable consideration of election security officials for years to come.
On Jan. 6, 2021, pro-Trump supporters and far-right forces flooded Washington, DC, to protest Trump's election loss. Hundreds breached the US Capitol.
Americans are on edge as voters head to the polls
As Election Day unfolds across the United States, law enforcement agencies warn that well-organized groups supporting Donald Trump may disrupt Tuesday’s vote and could carry out acts of violence. In particular, one chapter of the Proud Boys, a far-right movement that played a pivotal role in the pro-Trump riot at the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, posted a message on social media that its members “will either stand with the resistance or take a knee and willingly accept the yoke of tyranny and oppression.”
In fact, the New York Times reports that an investigation of more than one million messages posted on Telegram “question the credibility of the presidential election” and threaten to “interfere with the voting process and potentially dispute the outcome.” Some of these messages included images of violence. A so-called “election integrity” movement urges Telegram users to help “audit” the vote and to share news related to election rigging. Governors in Oregon, Washington, and Nevada have National Guard troops on standby in case of election-related violence.
Media coverage of the threat of trouble has Americans on edge. A new study from the American Psychological Association, an industry group, finds that more than 70% of Americans fear that today’s election will trigger violence.
Google logo is displayed on a mobile phone screen photographed with a Russian flag in the background for an illustration.
Hard Numbers: Kremlin hits Google with zeroes, Chileans demand tighter borders, Americans suffer election anxiety, Flash flooding wreaks havoc in Spain, Mount Fuji is missing something
20 decillion: The Kremlin hit Google with a fine of $20 decillion on behalf of Russian broadcasters banned by the company’s subsidiary, YouTube. Russia says the $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 — more than a million trillion times larger than the size of the entire global economy but still nearly 70 zeroes smaller than a “googol” – is symbolic. There aren’t enough zeroes in the world to convey how minimal the chances are of Google paying the Kremlin a single cent.
96: How popular is the idea of tighter immigration restrictions in Chile? Some 96% of the country now favors reducing the influx of foreigners, according to a new poll. Chile, a relatively prosperous country that has long had a relatively lax border policy, saw its foreign-born population surge by 25% between 2018 and 2022, driven largely by the mass exodus from Venezuela. A backlash against migrants, partly shaped by the 2021 presidential election, has continued to grow.
70: Roughly 70% of Americans are feeling anxious or frustrated about the election, according to a new AP/NORC poll. If you are one of the afflicted, find someone among the 36% who report feeling “excited” about the upcoming vote. Who are these people?
158: At least 158 people have been killed by devastating flash floods in Spain's Valencia region, as rescuers continue to search for survivors. The fatal flooding, the worst such disaster for the country in a century, wreaked havoc — sweeping away entire homes and leaving cars piled in the streets.
130: Japan’s Mount Fuji is missing something right now: snow. The peak’s iconic snowcap usually begins forming in October, and never in 130 years of records has it gone without one this late in the month. The summer of 2024 was tied with 2023 for Japan’s hottest ever.Graphic Truth: The rising cost of US elections
The 2024 federal election cycle is on course to be the costliest in US history, surpassing record levels of spending in 2020, according to OpenSecrets, a nonprofit that tracks money in politics. Federal election cycles have been flooded by huge amounts of money for decades, but spending skyrocketed after the Supreme Court’s controversial Citizens United decision in 2010, which held that political spending is a form of protected speech.
Citizens United opened the door for corporations, unions, and other groups to spend unlimited funds on elections – as long as they don’t formally coordinate with candidates or political parties – and paved the way for the creation of super PACs.
Super PACs differ from traditional PACs, or Political Action Committees, which can directly contribute to candidates and political parties (with limits on total contributions).
Elections have not only become more expensive since Citizens United, but they’ve also become less transparent in terms of the sources of spending. This is thanks to what are known as dark money groups, which are generally nonprofits that aren’t required to publicly disclose their donors. Even though super PACs are required to disclose their donors, the funding they receive from dark money groups keeps the original sources hidden.
Does money have too much influence on US politics? Should there be more limits on how much can be spent? We would love to hear your thoughts.
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, are seen in a combination of file photographs taken on the campaign trail in October.
Eagle Claw and the death of the October surprise
Is there an October surprise that might make or break a president?
The October surprise dates back to President Jimmy Carter, who turned 100 this month and, surprising many, managed to cast his vote for Kamala Harris.
During his 1980 campaign against Ronald Reagan, Carter believed a daring rescue of the 52 hostages that Iranian revolutionaries held after storming the American Embassy on Nov. 4, 1979, would turn things around.
So Carter launched Operation Eagle Claw. On April 24, 1980, eight helicopters and a C-130 plane secretly landed in the desert outside of Tehran to start the rescue operation. It was a colossal failure. Several choppers malfunctioned in a sandstorm and one crashed, killing eight US servicemen. Their bodies were later recovered by the Iranians and used in a sickening public display in Tehran.
Years later, I traveled to Atlanta, Georgia, to interview Carter, and he told me that, in his unequivocal view, had that helicopter not crashed, the hostages would have been rescued, and he would have won the election.
Still, even after Eagle Claw failed, the Reagan campaign feared an “October surprise,” where, at the very last moment, Carter would announce a dramatic arms-for-hostages deal with Iran. It never happened, and the hostages were released under Reagan, but since then, campaigns have braced for a late-breaking event that might change the course of an election.
There have been other examples of October surprises since then. In October 1992, former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger was indicted, derailing George H.W. Bush’s reelection bid. And, of course, in October 2016, FBI Director James Comey dropped the news that he was opening up an investigation into Hillary Clinton, helping Trump win that election.
Will there be an October surprise this year?
The answer is likely no, and that’s one of the biggest mysteries of this campaign: Why not?
First off, the most consequential surprises this year came much earlier than October — Biden was pushed out in favor of Harris, while Trump was convicted of 34 felonies and survived two assassination attempts. Few things can top those.
What about this week’s revelation that Trump’s former Chief of Staff John Kelly, a retired Marine general, alleges that Trump wanted to have generals like Hitler’s and that he’s an “authoritarian” who “admires people who are dictators”? The Trump campaign has denied this, but for all the press it’s getting, it’s hardly a surprise. Kelly and other former disgruntled Trump folks have long said all kinds of nasty things about the GOP nominee, and none of it has made a bit of difference to the campaign.
Trump remains slightly ahead in most national polls. Harris has run a solid, billion-dollar campaign, and while she can be vague and tends to serve up word-salad answers without any policy protein — as she did last night on CNN — Trump has had a far more ragged, rant-filled road, with significantly worse blunders, lies, and outbursts. And yet, it is still a coin toss, with the odds slightly favoring him.
That’s frustrating to Democrats, who think Trump has made a litany of disqualifying errors and statements, but none of them have stuck. Why not?
One reason may be that Trump’s main issues — when he stays on message — are the economy, immigration, and security, and those are proving to be more salient than the ones the Democrats focus on, such as democracy, abortion, and their record. They carry the weight of incumbency, and in 2024, that’s a drag.
A second, deeper reason is that Trump has become, essentially, surprise proof. He has so normalized personal character flaws and institutional distrust that it makes an October surprise impossible.
That merits a moment of reflection. The inherent assumption supporting an “October surprise” is that there are widely accepted conventions of behavior and social norms. When those are undermined or contradicted by a “surprise,” it will destroy a campaign. In past campaigns, that has been the exposure of lies, infidelities, corruption, a spelling error (the bar was so low for Dan Quayle), or a financial scandal. But we have had all of those in this run and … bupkis. Nothing moves. Harris might be more susceptible to a surprise because she is less well-known, but even her supporters don’t care about allegations of plagiarism or her policy flip-flops on fracking.
In 2024, the October surprise just doesn’t exist anymore. Polarization has so ossified the USA that partisans are shockproof. That may be a good thing as it means avoiding a cheap, manufactured scandal changing an election outcome, but it is also a sign that a healthy democracy is losing some of its early warning signals. Pain and surprise are signals to your body that something is wrong or threatening. It looks like today, the body politic feels no pain and, so, no surprise.
No matter what new story emerges in the final 12 days, don’t think for a moment it will make any difference. The biggest surprise will be on Nov. 5.
Bloc by Bloc: America’s Changing Voting Patterns
This GZERO 2024 election series looks at America’s changing voting patterns, bloc by bloc.
- Harris and Trump scramble to reach Latinos
- The Arab-American vote in the shadow of Oct. 7
- The gaping gender divide in the 2024 election
- Can Dems win back the working class?
- How the youth and senior votes will influence the US election (pre-Biden withdrawal)
- Biden and Trump fight over a changing “Latino Vote” (pre-Biden withdrawal)
- Trump gambles to woo Black voters