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Putin's New Year's wishes, again and again!
This is the twenty-fifth time that Vladimir Putin has greeted the new year as ruler of Russia. To mark the occasion, he takes a look back at just how far he has come. Do you remember what was on the billboard charts when he first took power? #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more of GZERO's award-winning PUPPET REGIME series!
10 elections to watch in 2025
This time last year, we had you buckle up for the world’s most intense year of democracy in action, with more than 65 countries holding elections involving at least 4.2 billion people — roughly half of the world’s adult population. As we now know, many of those voters turned against incumbents in 2024 — from the United Kingdom and the United States to Botswana, Japan, and South Korea, just to name a handful.
Now, we’re spotlighting the 10 most consequential elections of 2025. While it will be a less dramatic year for democracy compared to 2024, there are important themes to track as many of the countries struggle amid increasing political polarization, anti-establishment sentiment, and economic challenges.
Here are the 10 elections to watch in 2025:
1. Belarus – Jan. 26
Voters will head to the polls in Belarus to elect a president in January. The election will be neither free nor fair. The country’s opposition warns that the election “will be an exercise in ‘self-reappointment’ of [Aleksander] Lukashenko and a staged attempt to legitimize his continued rule without genuine competition.” That’s also the view in Europe and the United States.
The main question hanging over this vote is whether it will produce mass protests similar to those that followed the country’s last sham presidential election in 2020. Members of the European Parliamentcharge that, since 2020, “Tens of thousands of peaceful protesters have been arrested and nearly 1,300 political prisoners, including opposition political figures, are still kept in Belarusian detention facilities.” Tens of thousands more have been forced to flee the country.
Though Lukashenko’s government has not sent troops into Ukraine, his government has allowed Russia to use its territory as a staging ground for attacks on Ukraine since the first day of the war in February 2022. Any election-related instability in Belarus would worry not only Lukashenko but Vladimir Putin as well.
2. Germany – Feb. 23
On Nov. 6, deep ideological differences over economic reform broke up Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition government, a development that allowed Germany, a country in economic crisis, to move up elections from September 2025 to February. A key question is whether the vote will produce a winner with a strong enough mandate to make the tough political choices needed to restore vitality to Europe’s largest economy.
But the thorny subject of immigration also hangs over the scene, especially after a Saudi Arabian national carried out a deadly mid-December terror attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg.
The far-right Alternative for Germany party has surged in recent years with an anti-immigration platform, and now polls at nearly 20%, ahead of Scholz’s Social Democrats, and second only to the conservative Christian Democratic Union. Elon Musk’s endorsement could well boost the party further.
Scholz will lead a caretaker government until the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, elects a new chancellor in April or May. If the CDU maintains its lead, party chief Friedrich Merz will probably be the next chancellor.
But once the votes are counted, can the CDU form a strong enough governing coalition to maintain its political standing in the face of populist attacks from non-traditional parties? If, like Scholz’s coalition, Merz needs two parties to join, he’ll face the same internal divisions that crippled Scholz from the beginning of his term in December 2021. And if the AfD and the far-left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht can win more than one-third of Bundestag seats, together they can threaten a new bid to allow the German government to spend more money.
3. Australia — before May
This year, Australians will go to the polls for the first time since 2022, when the Labor Party ended nine years of dominance by the conservative Liberal Party. While in power, Labor has passed major climate legislation, deftly walked the line of preserving Australia’s deep economic ties to China while pushing back on Beijing’s regional assertiveness, and imposed a landmark, and popular, social media ban for minors.
But none of that is the main issue for Australians, which is the economy. And here the Labor Party has struggled, earning terrible marks for rising housing costs, a top concern for more than 90% of voters, according to one industry poll. A flurry of housing legislation in recent months has been too little, too late. The bad vibes extend to wage growth too, even though salaries have grown faster than inflation for the past year.
Neither Prime Minister Anthony Albanese nor his main opponent, Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton, is well-liked, meaning Australians are choosing between unpopular options. Whoever wins could easily wind up with a minority government, leaving Australians with a weak government that may be challenged to address big problems.
4. The Philippines — May 12
The last two years have seen a radical redirection of Manila’s foreign policy as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — the son of the strongman by the same name who ruled the archipelago from 1965-1986 — moves away from China and toward its traditional ally, the US. But this shift has caused a major rift with Marcos’ predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, and it’s making the upcoming midterm election look like a dynastic knife fight.
Duterte’s daughter, Sara Duterte, is Marcos’ vice president, and relations between the two are frosty to say the least. During a November speech, she said, “This country is going to hell because we are led by a person who doesn’t know how to be a president and who is a liar,” and then addressed alleged threats to her life by seeming to suggest that she’d arrange retaliatory assassinations of her own.
She’s denied that her comments represent a threat, but she now faces three impeachment complaints — over the threats, alleged misuse of funds, and violating the constitution.
And it gets even juicier. Rodrigo Duterte himself is running for mayor of Davao City, the largest metropolis in the south, where he held office for over 20 years. It’s not a coincidence: His son is the sitting mayor there, and the hope is that having his name on the ballot will help turn out his base to fill the open senate and house seats with Duterte loyalists.
That would allow the clan to check Marcos’ actions in the second half of his term and set Sara up for a run at the top job in 2028. Marcos will be term-limited by then … but it’s rumored that his cousin, the house speaker, will succeed him.
In short, it’s like “Game of Thrones” but with better weather.
5. Bolivia – Aug. 17
Things have been … tense in the landlocked Andean state this year, thanks to a farcical, poorly organized coup attempt against sitting President Luis Arce and allegations of an assassination attempt on his mentor-turned-archrival, former President Evo Morales. Their rivalry is compounding an uncertain economic future in South America’s poorest country, which has seen its once-booming natural gas industry go belly up.
Citizens have been demonstrating against unaffordable fuel and energy prices for months, but they’re getting little help from the authorities, who are busy weaponizing the justice system against political rivals and maneuvering to control the left-wing Movement for Socialism party that dominates Bolivian politics.
Arce scored a key advantage in that fight when Bolivia’s constitutional court ruled in late 2024 that Morales was ineligible to run — but don’t count him out. Bolivia’s court system is deeply politicized, and Morales could well find a way back onto the ballot. We’re watching for the possibility that he runs as vice president with Senate leader Andrónico Rodríguez at the top of the ticket.
We’re also watching Manfred Reyes Villa, a conservative who may be able to use the split on the left to advance his own candidacy.
6. Argentina – Oct. 26
Has the pain been worth it? That, in many ways, is the most basic question on the ballot as Argentina heads into midterm elections in October for half the lower house and a third of the senate.
The “pain,” of course, is anarcho-capitalist President Javier Milei’s radical “chainsaw” policy of gutting public spending and regulations to address decades of economic mismanagement, triple-digit inflation, and chronic debt crises.
So far, Milei has proven many of the haters wrong. The economy, Latin America’s third largest, emerged from recession in late 2024. Inflation has fallen from 25% per month to less than 3%. Economists expect the economy to grow as much as 5% in 2025.
But, at the same time, the share of Argentines living in poverty has soared by more than 10 percentage points, to 53%, since he took office. There have been large protests against his spending cuts. And he has yet to take some big, and potentially painful, steps such as scrapping capital controls, which could stoke inflation again.
Milei’s small, libertarian party, La Libertad Avanza (“Liberty Advances”), currently lacks a majority in both houses, but he hopes to change that and is pleading for voters to make a “big rumble in the elections.”Heading into the new year, La Libertad Avanza was the clear front-runner in polls, with 46% saying they were ready to cast a ballot for MIlei’s party, compared to just 14% for the traditional left-wing Peronist party and 7% for the establishment right.
7. Czech Republic – before October
The ANO party of populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, who has clashed with the EU and is skeptical of support for Ukraine, looks set for a big comeback in this fall’s parliamentary elections amid broader malaise and dissatisfaction with the current center-right coalition of PM Petr Fiala.
Babiš was prime minister from 2017-2021, and in 2023 he lost the presidential election by nearly 20 points to Petr Pavel, a former NATO general who strongly backs Ukraine.
But with the current governing coalition in turmoil and “Ukraine fatigue” growing ahead of a possible push by US President-elect Donald Trump to end the war there, Czechs are in the mood for change again.
A stunning recent poll showed fewer than half of Czechs now think life has improved since the fall of communism in 1989. ANO capitalized on that disillusionment in fall 2024 regional and Senate ballots, ringing up big results even with abysmal turnout.
Heading into 2025, polls show ANO with 30% support against the governing coalition’s 20%. If Babiš wins, he would (re)join a Central European eurosceptic populist axis featuring Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s populist PM Robert Fico.
8. Tanzania – October 2025
President Samia Suluhu Hassan is expected to win reelection under the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), which has held power for six decades. She will likely face veteran politician Tundu Lissu, the current chairperson of Chadema, Tanzania’s main opposition party.
Hassan will likely tout her political reforms, including reversing some of the most authoritarian policies of her predecessor, John Magufuli, who banned political rallies, censored the media, and clamped down on opposition parties. That has empowered Hassan’s political opponents, though a shadow of the old ways persists: earlier this year two Chadema politicianswere abducted and tortured, and one of them was murdered. Three more Chadema politicianswere killed in connection with local elections in November.
Who’s watching this election? Likely China. Tanzania is the fifth-largest state in Africa, and China has been its maintrading partner for eight years. China has also funded several megaprojects, including a recently announced railway revitalization with Zambia. The CCP has a close relationship with Tanzania’s ruling party, and China runs a leadership school outside Dar Es Salaam that counsels African politicians on how to replicate China’s authoritarian model and cement one-party rule — like the CCM’s 60-year reign — in their countries.
9. Canada – before Oct. 25
Canadian law requires that its next federal election be held by Oct. 25, 2025, but it could come far sooner.
The Liberals, in power since 2015, lost their formal support from the left-leaning New Democratic Party last September, leaving them vulnerable to a no-confidence vote. On Dec. 20, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced he would trigger such a vote at the earliest opportunity – but the House of Commons is in recess until Jan. 27, 2025. That prompted Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to ask Canada’s titular head of state, Governor General Mary Simon, to bring the House back earlier – a constitutional nonstarter, as she only takes counsel from the prime minister. The Conservatives desperately want an election, as they hold a 23-point lead in the polls.
The drama followed the shock resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 16, which triggered calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation from both inside and outside his party. The calls multiplied over the ensuing days, and Trudeau is now reportedly considering his future, though he has said he is not resigning over the holiday break. Should he step down, a leadership contest and prorogation of the House of Commons would follow, meaning that an election would likely happen before October.
The main issues are inflation, immigration, and a housing shortage, overlaid with anxiety about the incoming Trump administration’s promise of up to 25% tariffs on Canadian exports to the US. Should Trudeau remain leader, many also see the vote as a referendum on his tenure — at a time when only 19% of voters think he should stay on.
10. Chile – Nov. 16
South America’s most prosperous economy has traveled a rough political road the last few years, with two consecutive efforts to reform the constitution going down in flames — and taking ruling President Gabriel Boric with them.
The young reformer has failed to advance the significant changes he promised and is prohibited constitutionally from serving another consecutive term.
But rather than major constitutional change, Chileans are eager for economic growth and a serious attempt to tackle growing drug crime and violence, which have surged in part due to the arrival of organized crime gangs from Venezuela.
We’re a long way off from the ballots, but two candidates are out ahead: former Labor Minister Evelyn Matthei, from the right-wing Independent Democratic Union, and the far-right populist José Antonio Kast. Matthei comes from a well-known political family in Santiago and has come close to the top job before. Unfortunately for her, voters around the world seem to be in an anti-establishment mood.
Kast, on the other hand, is cast in a more radical mold. His Republican party broke away from Matthei’s in 2018, in part because they wanted to be less critical of former dictator Gen. Augusto Pinochet. Kast, an ultra-conservative Catholic and nationalist who has proposed border trenches to stop illegal immigration, lost to Borić in the last election but is poised for a strong run again.
All of that leaves the left in the lurch, but former President Michelle Bachelet — still the country’s single most popular politician — could yet throw her hat in the ring to make things interesting.
Assad’s fall, Romania’s canceled election, Trump’s Taiwan approach, and more: Your questions, answered
How did Bashar Assad get driven out of Syria after more than 20 years in power? What are your thoughts on his replacements?
I was surprised that Assad fell. He’s been such an important client for both Iran and Russia for decades and received their immediate support when the rebels began their offensive. But this was a particularly opportune time for the rebels to strike. Assad’s powerful friends were both distracted in other arenas: Iran with Israel (in both Gaza and, more importantly for Iran, Lebanon) and Russia with Ukraine. Interestingly, there is one key throughline connecting the fall of Mosul (Iraq), Kabul (Afghanistan), and Damascus (Syria) — all three were held by conscript armies that were fed, equipped, and trained by corrupt regimes … and when attacked by fierce radical groups fled as quickly as they could.
On its face, the fall of one of the world’s most oppressive dictators should be good news. Assad’s war against his own people led to the deaths of over 500,000 Syrians and millions of refugees fleeing into Turkey and from there to Europe. But I’m not yet confident that what’s replacing his regime will be much better. The Turkish-backed militants in charge are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a former al-Qaida affiliate in Syria that formally cut ties with the terrorists but is still (as of now) labeled a terrorist organization by the United States and NATO. Turkey wasn’t all in on removing Assad (at first). If the regime change goes well (a big if), the real winner here will be Turkey, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sending millions of Syrian refugees back home, becoming the main influence on strategically important Syria, and leading the fight against the Islamic State. This would land Erdoğan in Donald Trump’s good graces if it leads to a withdrawal of American troops.
HTS is clearly serious about establishing itself as the new, legitimate government — and a policy (for now) of relative moderation and tolerance toward other groups in the country is making that easier. But there are still so many unknowns and reasons that this can go terribly wrong.
Can Romania just cancel an election?
The constitutional court decided it’s “better to ask for forgiveness than permission.” After a massive far-right influence campaign by external (well … Russian) forces on TikTok and other social platforms was uncovered, Romania became the first democracy to ever cancel an election because of a disinformation campaign. This move will land the country in hot water regardless of the results of the rescheduled election. The court is viewed as highly politicized, so the decision will ultimately undermine it and whoever the future president may be – unless the far-right fringe candidate is allowed to run, and win, again.
How could President Trump’s plan to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine on “day one” impact China’s approach to Taiwan?
Whether China will push to undermine the cross-strait status quo during Trump’s second term is still up for debate. But Trump’s transactional approach to the war in Ukraine won’t affect China’s approach to Taiwan, at least in the near term. Beijing is still several years away from being able to credibly launch an invasion and take over the self-governing democracy. For now, China’s leaders are much more focused on regaining their own economic footing. That said, President-elect Trump’s interest in defending an island thousands of miles from the United States (and incredibly close to mainland China) is questionable at best. Many of his advisors care a great deal about Taiwanese sovereignty as a matter of US national security and longstanding American values, but Trump himself is much more interested in the country’s bilateral trade balance with the US.
What does Russia after Putin realistically look like?
If Vladimir Putin dies tomorrow, don’t expect a seismic shift at the Kremlin. Far more likely, his replacement would be another strongly anti-Western, nationalist leader who would fill the vacuum left by Putin’s departure. Such a successor would likely be more risk-averse, having to derive legitimacy and maintain power through the support of the country’s military, intelligence, and security leaders. It’s hard to imagine a dramatic shift in Russia’s geopolitical orientation when most of the country feels like the United States and “the West” have been out to squash their country’s power for decades.
Could a multi-party proportional representation system fix American politics?
America’s two-party system provides unique challenges for government representation by fostering an “us vs. them” tribalist sentiment, dividing the country into only two camps. It would be harder to immediately brand the opposing party as “the enemy of the state” if Americans had more choices. So, a shift to a multi-party system would allow a broader spectrum of ideologies into DC, and across the country, that would more closely reflect the diversity of the country’s population as a whole, which I think would be a constructive development. That said, it's hard to see how we could ever get from here to there given the stronghold on American politics (and the insane amount of funding) that the current duopoly has.
Why do you always defend the United Nations?
Some may find it controversial, but I’m proud of the United Nations. A truly global institution created by the United States out of the rubble of World War II, the UN charter reflects the very best of American values. As an institution, the UN no doubt has problems. The Security Council (and its veto powers) reflects a geopolitical order that no longer exists, lacks representation, and is accordingly broken. In the General Assembly, each country (no matter how small) has one vote but without enforcement power is generally weak and ineffective. Countries vote and veto in ways many of us wish they didn’t (but you should blame those countries, not the UN, for that).
What gets lost in the critiques of the bureaucracy of the United Nations is the amount of good that the organization does on a global scale, and with limited expenses (which, by the way, is where most of American funding for the United Nations is spent). The World Health Organization, World Food Organization, UNICEF, and other UN arms are systematically looking out for the world’s poorest and most vulnerable in ways most singular countries couldn’t be bothered to do alone.
Today, the world is heading to a post-carbon energy future, and that’s in no small part due to the architecture set up by the United Nations. Plus, new initiatives like the creation of a global framework for artificial intelligence (which I’ve been happy to be a part of) signal more positive developments are still to come on the only stage where every country in the world can have a voice.
What is on your radar over the next 24 months and not being discussed enough?
While there’s constant talk about artificial intelligence impacting our daily lives, the deployment of large-scale AI applications to an individual’s every dataset is not being discussed nearly enough. Personalized decisions or predictions based on human behavior patterns ascribed in large datasets are coming our way shortly. Before you know it, we will all have tools that will change humanity as we know it — in productive ways and post-human ways.
Where do you get your news, and what news sources do you trust?
As you might expect, the folks at Eurasia Group and GZERO Media act as my North Star when news breaks. With about 250 brilliant employees scattered across the globe working tirelessly to understand the inner workings of their areas of expertise, they bring priceless insight into what’s going on in the world on any given day. More broadly, it’s helpful for people to look outside their bubbles and read news coverage from outside their country of origin. For me, the Canadians (CBC), Germans (DW), Japanese (NHK), Arabs (Al Jazeera, etc.), and others cover the world in a much more effective way than the coverage we get from one hour of insular news coverage on cable television (or even from sitting down with the New York Times or Wall Street Journal).
What are your thoughts on pineapple on pizza?
Well, that depends. I’ll allow pineapple if there’s also ham and something spicy on top like jalapenos or chili flakes. Even then, I can probably think of 20 other things that I’d rather have as a pizza topping. Still, pineapple is preferable to cuttlefish – a Japanese fan favorite.
Are you hiring?
Eurasia Group is always looking for new talent – not just in our New York office but around the world. I am not personally involved in hiring, though, which is probably for the best. Thankfully we have a CEO and management team who make running the firm look easy. We’d be nowhere near as successful without them. Left to my own devices, I might run us into the ground. Ask anyone at Eurasia Group, they’ll totally agree with me.Watch our livestream: The Top Risks of 2025
WATCH: What's the world's #1 concern for the year ahead? Watch today's livestream with Ian Bremmer and global experts to discuss the Top Risks of 2025 report from Eurasia Group. The much-anticipated annual forecast of the ten biggest geopolitical risks to watch in 2025 has been released this morning. Evan Solomon, GZERO Media's publisher, will moderate the conversation with Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group's chairman and a leader of the firm's global macro coverage; Susan Glasser, staff writer at the New Yorker;andJon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director, United States.
Watch live at https://www.gzeromedia.com/toprisks
The Top Risks of 2025 with Ian Bremmer & Eurasia Group
Monday, January 6, 2025 | 12:00 PM ET | https://www.gzeromedia.com/toprisks
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